[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

Since the start of the year, growth in the European solar market has slowed markedly. SMM expects total new solar installations in the European market to fall to around 68.5GW in 2026, a year on year decline of about 2 percent. Alongside softening demand, multiple EU level supply chain restriction policies continue to advance, including the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), and restrictive measures targeting inverters from so called high risk countries.

Novelis said Europe’s aluminium demand is expected to rise by about 30% by 2040, driven by EVs, renewable energy, construction and packaging. While recycled aluminium has become increasingly important due to its 95% lower energy consumption than primary production, the company said recycling alone cannot meet future demand for high-performance applications such as aerospace, electrical systems and advanced automotive alloys. Novelis called for a balanced strategy combining expanded recycling with competitive low-carbon primary aluminium production.

The first contract for Huashang Xiamen Geng's 600 Nm³/h hydrogen production equipment exported to Italy has officially come into effect recently. This project, with Huashang International responsible for market development outside China and Huashang Xiamen Geng responsible for implementation, marks a new breakthrough for the enterprise in the European market, following its export of 600 Nm³/h hydrogen production equipment to Indonesia last year. According to the project arrangement, Huashang Xiamen Geng will provide the client with design and manufacturing services for 600 Nm³/h containerized skid-mounted hydrogen production equipment. The system encompasses core modules such as alkaline electrolyzers, power supply, separation unit, purification equipment, cooling unit, and control system , forming a complete hydrogen production solution. This batch of equipment plans to obtain the EU "4+1" CE certification, marking the first time in China that alkaline electrolyzer hydrogen production equipment is exported to the EU with the "4+1" CE certification. The equipment offers high technical guarantees in terms of overall energy consumption, energy consumption attenuation, load fluctuation range, noise level, and power supply efficiency, and will be used for off-grid green hydrogen production via PV on an abandoned industrial site in Italy. The effectiveness of this contract not only signifies the project's entry into the execution phase but also reflects the further enhanced adaptability of China's alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment in the European market. Facing the EU's requirements in safety standards, equipment certification, and green hydrogen subsidies, Huashang Xiamen Geng, through early technical assessment and solution design, provides support for the client's subsequent application for EU green hydrogen subsidies. Huashang Xiamen Geng was jointly established by Huashang Energy and the Jia Geng Innovation Laboratory of Xiamen University. Leveraging fundamental research in materials chemistry, it continuously conducts technological innovation on core materials and components such as electrodes, separators, and diffusion layers in alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, thereby building hydrogen production technology capabilities characterized by low energy consumption, wide power response, and rapid cold start. Huashang International is responsible for the enterprise's overseas business expansion. It has established subsidiaries in eight countries, including the US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the UK, Singapore, the UAE, and the Netherlands, as well as global service centers in 24 countries and regions, with over 38 service stations. With the advancement of the Italian project, Huashang Xiamen Geng is expected to further enhance its influence in the European green hydrogen equipment market.

The reporter learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that today, July 2, three mandatory national standards in the PV sector were officially approved and released. These standards set rigid constraints on energy consumption and energy efficiency across the entire chain of polysilicon, wafers, PV modules, and inverters, using standardized measures to refine the green management and control system of the PV industry chain, and providing institutional support for the high-quality development of the new energy industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation, released three mandatory national standards on PV energy consumption and efficiency: "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Monocrystalline Silicon", "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades for Crystalline Silicon PV Modules and Inverters", and "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium". These standards cover key segments of the PV industry chain including polysilicon, wafers, modules, and inverters, set energy consumption and energy efficiency indicators for relevant products by grade, and strictly control high-energy-consumption and low-efficiency capacity in each link; for modules, they innovatively incorporate the evaluation indicator of coupled environmental stress-induced degradation rate.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Narrow, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] Progress has been made in indirect technical talks between the US and Iran, with discussions on fund repatriation and Strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continues to narrow. The dispute over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and uncertainty remains over the resumption of Strait navigation. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to stay in the doldrums.

[SMM Analysis: Breaking the Hormuz Strait Curse for Sulphur Source Self-Rescue, Hubei Yihua Million-Ton Phosphogypsum-to-Sulphuric Acid Project Signed] On June 22, 2026, China Wuhuan, Tianjin Cement Institute, and Hubei Yihua signed a contract for a million-ton-level phosphogypsum-to-sulphuric acid project, which will process 1 million mt of phosphogypsum annually, produce 400,000 mt of sulphuric acid, and byproduct admixture material, using the third-generation green and low-carbon calcination technology.

Calderys has successfully completed the industry's first full aluminum furnace relining using 100% Fast Dry (FD) and Steady Dry (SD) castable refractory technology on a 25-tonne melting furnace. The solution reduced furnace dry-out time by more than 50% compared with conventional methods, while eliminating explosive spalling and post-installation repairs. It also lowered burner operating time during commissioning, reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Following commissioning, the furnace resumed production quickly and has operated continuously without refractory-related issues. Calderys said the integrated refractory solution is designed to support 12-15 months of maintenance-free operation while improving reliability and reducing shutdown costs.

The NDRC and NEA jointly issued the plan, aiming to initially establish a clean, low-carbon, secure, and efficient new energy system by 2030. Non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%. Wind and solar power installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of power installation. Non-fossil energy generation will reach 50%, becoming the main power supply, with new energy generation accounting for 30%. The newly added West-to-East power transmission capacity will exceed 80 GW.

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)