On March 10, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February 2026 reached 15.591 million mt, down 8.1% YoY, with February steel exports at 7.837 million mt. China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February 2026 were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY. China’s Steel Exports Declined YoY in January-February Against last year’s high base, China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February fell 8.1% YoY, but still remained at a relatively high level for the same period in previous years. The YoY decline in total exports in January-February was attributable, on the one hand, to policy impacts. At the end of 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the export licensing system would take effect on January 1, 2026. As it basically covered all steel export categories, policy uncertainty made some export traders more cautious in taking orders. On the other hand, the appreciation of the yuan weakened the price advantage of exports, which also affected order-taking. In February, despite fewer calendar days, the MoM figure still increased. The reason was that some steel mills engaged in compliant exports actively pursued export orders to ease pressure from domestic sales while traders stayed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, in the early stage of export license implementation, both customs and exporters needed to spend more time adapting to policy changes. As time passed, overall work efficiency improved, and port cargo pick-up also accelerated accordingly. China’s Steel Imports Remained at a Low Level in January-February On the import side, China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY; net steel exports reached 14.764 million mt, down 7.3% YoY. Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 51.2% in February 2026, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, remaining above 50 for two consecutive months. Asia, Europe, and the Americas all posted MoM increases and all stayed above the threshold, indicating signs of improving recovery in global manufacturing. However, affected by the long Chinese New Year holiday in China, the new export orders index of China’s manufacturing PMI was 45% in February, down 2.8 percentage points MoM. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have surged recently, bringing uncertainty to the just-improving global economic recovery. According to monitoring data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production totaled 147.3 million mt in January 2026, down 6.5% YoY, mainly dragged down by the sharp contraction in China’s production, which fell to 75.3 million mt in the single month, with a YoY decline as high as 13.9%. However, excluding the Chinese market, the rest of the world actually achieved about 3.6% growth against the trend in January, showing localized resilience amid divergence. The continued recovery of global crude steel capacity has brought some suppression to China’s steel exports. As of March 6, 2026, export offers for HRC (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $500/mt, $566/mt, and $460/mt, respectively, while China’s HRC export offer (FOB) was $472/mt. At present, China’s HRC export offer was respectively -$28/mt, -$94/mt, and +$12/mt versus those countries. Overall, China’s steel exports still had an absolute price advantage. Figure 1 - HRC Export Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM According to SMM’s latest steel mill export scheduling data, the planned HRC export volume for this month was 819,000 mt, down 125,000 mt from last month’s actual exports, with a MoM decline of 13.2%, mainly because major northern mills planned to adjust their export product mix. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as the impact of export licenses gradually faded, export order-taking gradually recovered in mid-to-late January. Meanwhile, with the long Chinese New Year holiday approaching, most export traders brought sales forward, so overall export order-taking maintained relatively high MoM growth. However, due to shipping disruptions caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, earlier orders would face certain difficulties in shipment. Taking all factors into account, with the support of more calendar days in March, SMM expected a mild MoM rebound in overall export volume, though product divergence remained evident. Subsequent changes in total export volume would likely depend on judgment over the US-Iran conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the overall impact will be relatively limited. Some domestic export traders have even taken on some semi-finished products orders lost from the Middle East due to the conflict, and Middle East demand has only been delayed rather than disappeared, with expectations of a demand surge after the conflict ends. But if the conflict turns into a protracted war, previously expected Middle East demand may face the risk of reassessment, while uncertainties such as ocean freight rates would also cause part of the demand to turn cautious. Figure 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Intake Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For any reposting, whitelist, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, it may not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to claims for breach of contract, recovery of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the Code to Get Information for Free

[Zinc Fundamental Trading Logic Amid the Middle East Conflict: Risk Identification and Opportunity Capture] Global geopolitical conflicts have continued unabated, and news of the recent Middle East conflict has emerged frequently. What impact will this have on the zinc industry? This article provides an analysis from both fundamental and market perspectives:

[SMM Hot Topic] Estimated “Cliff-Like” Drop in China’s Steel Exports—A Ramadan Pattern or a War Shock? As mentioned above, [Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade] amid the US–Iran conflict, global steel trade was shaken and reshaped. Another topic that has recently been widely discussed in the market is: what impact will this war have on China’s total export volume? Before going into detail, it is important to remind everyone that the current focus has largely remained on geopolitical conflict, while often overlooking that this period coincides with Ramadan, a seasonal trough. Therefore, to quantify the war’s actual impact more accurately, SMM conducted corresponding “dehydration” adjustments based on ferrous panoramic shipping data. Most Direct Impact: A Deep Shortfall on the Shipping Side Data Source:SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping According to the table above, in the absence of war, during Ramadan 2025, China’s average weekly shipments to Gulf countries were about 327,000 mt, while the average weekly shipments in the month after Ramadan ended were 450,400 mt. Therefore, keeping average weekly shipments at around 300,000 mt during Ramadan is considered a “normal contraction” level. By further comparing the same-period data for 2026 and 2025, we can precisely calculate the quantified impact caused by the war. As of the latest date, in the first 20 days of Ramadan, China exported and shipped only 5,000 mt, with a weekly average of only 1,750 mt. Estimation logic: If there were no war, based on a neutral assessment using the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, total shipments in the first 20 days should have been about 930,000 mt; therefore, the war resulted in shipment losses of about 925,000 mt. Therefore, we can conclude that the more than 99% plunge on the shipping side was most likely caused by the war (route blockades, shipowners’ risk aversion), and the Ramadan factor is almost negligible in the face of such a massive decline. Delayed Effects on the Arrival Side Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In addition to the impact on the shipping side, SMM ’s ferrous panoramic shipping data also showed that after operations were suspended at multiple ports, a combination of factors—such as vessels being unable to berth and unload—led to a decline in the total volume of steel arriving at ports. As of the latest date, average weekly arrivals were about 220,200 mt, down by roughly 82,000 mt/week from 302,200 mt over the same period last year. Estimation logic: assuming no war impact and using a neutral assessment based on the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, cumulative arrivals in the first 20 days should have been about 863,400 mt, implying a cumulative shortfall of about 234,000 mt. Cause breakdown: it is expected that the decline on the arrivals side was not as pronounced as that on the shipments side, because among these 12 arriving vessels, most carried orders that had already been dispatched before the full outbreak of the war or in the early stage of the situation (Jan 25–Feb 25). Therefore, this 234,000 mt gap was mainly due to war-driven route detours (delays) and partial port shutdowns. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In summary, based on the data, we can conclude that Ramadan was merely the “backdrop,” while the war was the “main cause.” If the impact were only from Ramadan, we should still have had about 300,000 mt of steel shipped to the Gulf each week. The reality, however, is that since Feb 18, our average weekly shipments have plunged to less than 2,000 mt. This means that, within the currently observed gap, shipment losses of more than 900,000 mt were entirely caused by war-related order stagnation or shipping lane disruptions. The 27% decline currently seen on the arrivals side is only the beginning; the real “vacuum period” will fully emerge in late March, during the latter part of Ramadan. At present, a phased contraction in China’s total steel exports to the Middle East has become a foregone conclusion. Does this mean the strong momentum of China’s full-year exports will come to a halt here? According to SMM steel export take-order data, last week, the total orders taken by 31 exporters were about 765,000 mt, up 20.76% MoM. Among them, export orders for long products were about 437,000 mt, up 56.07% MoM; export orders for sheets & plates were about 328,000 mt, down 7.21% MoM. Against the backdrop of rising export prices, this growth did not stem from a broad-based global economic recovery, but from forced shifts in trade flows driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, instability in Iran diverted Southeast Asian orders to China, driving a boom in steel billet exports; on the other hand, conflict in the Middle East pushed up shipping costs, and the surge in fuel prices directly caused physical disruptions along the trade chain. Even if there is overseas demand, the sharp rise in freight rates also weakened the pricing advantage of Chinese steel products. SMM Steel Export Orders Taken - 31 Companies (10kt) Data Source:SMM Weekly Steel Export Report Therefore, although the reduction in exports to the Middle East has already been confirmed by the data, assessing its impact on China’s total exports for the full year still needs to be based on a “global rebalancing” perspective: is the “gap” created after demand in Gulf countries is constrained being converted into “incremental volume” in other markets? What is the actual absorption capacity of these emerging incremental markets? Can they offset the monthly shipping loss of 900,000 mt from the Middle East? Please continue to follow SMM Steel Industry Research; we will regularly update global shipping developments… Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. 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Although the recent market turmoil triggered by the Iran crisis once led investors to scale back expectations for policy tightening, the Bank of Japan still viewed the April 2026 policy meeting as a key window for a rate hike and did not remove it from the agenda. At present, Bank of Japan officials were on high alert, focusing on assessing further developments in the Middle East situation and their potential disruption to Japan’s domestic inflation trajectory and economic recovery process.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Easing Macro Sentiment Holds Quotes Firm, Inventory Buildup Expectations Suppress Aluminum Price Rise] Overall, aluminum prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising after the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM data showed that during the week (February 9-13, 2026), the final trading week before the Chinese New Year holiday, the stainless steel market essentially entered a "market closure" mode, with price movements primarily driven by capital flows in the futures market. The most-traded contract officially switched to SS2604, and as of 10:30 on February 13, the contract was quoted at 13,765 yuan/mt. Affected by pre-holiday capital outflows, trading in the futures market was sluggish, and the price center fluctuated rangebound within the range of 13,700-13,800 yuan/mt. Despite the lack of immediate guidance from the spot market, an unexpected rebound in raw material prices provided strong support at the bottom for the futures market, limiting the downside room during the vacuum period. From a macro perspective, policy signals from China and the US set the tone for the post-holiday macroeconomic backdrop. Domestically, the central bank released its monetary policy report, clearly stating the continuation of moderately accommodative policies and maintaining ample liquidity to provide support for the post-holiday economic recovery. Overseas, US non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. The strong economic data significantly reduced the probability of a near-term interest rate cut by the US Fed (the probability of a March rate cut was less than 20%). The expectation that "tight monetary conditions will persist longer" exerted some downward pressure on commodity valuations. However, during the extended Chinese New Year holiday, the market focused more on the cumulative effects of domestic policies and the resilience of post-holiday demand recovery. From a fundamental perspective, the spot market had fully entered the holiday mode, with inventories showing a seasonal buildup. The latest SMM data showed that social inventory rose to 894,500 mt this week, an increase of 25,900 mt compared to 868,600 mt last week. This inventory buildup aligns with the seasonal pattern around the Chinese New Year, primarily due to downstream end-user shutdowns and the stagnation of goods circulation. Regarding spot transactions, the vast majority of traders had already left for the holiday, with only a small number of post-holiday orders being locked in, leaving the market in a frozen state characterized by "existing prices but no market." Although inventories increased noticeably, considering the previously low inventory base, the total volume remains within a reasonable range. Furthermore, the market generally holds an optimistic outlook for the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak season. Suppliers maintained a steady mindset, with no signs of panic selling pressure emerging. The "counter-trend rebound" on the cost side was the highlight of the week. Against the backdrop of stalled finished product trading, raw materials showed unexpected resilience. As of February 13, the price of high-grade NPI rebounded to 1,051.5 yuan/mtu, up 11.5 yuan WoW, recouping some of the previous losses; high-carbon ferrochrome held steady at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The recovery in raw material prices was supported, on one hand, by continued expectations regarding Indonesian ore policy and, on the other hand, reflected upstream optimism about post-holiday demand. The upward shift in the cost center directly raised the break-even point for steel mills, building a more solid cost floor for stainless steel prices upon their return after the holiday. Overall assessment: This week's market exhibited a typical "pre-holiday closing" pattern, with capital outflows leading to reduced volatility and a spot market shutdown causing distortions in the spot-futures price spread. Although the 894,500 mt inventory confirmed an inventory buildup trend, the rebound in NPI indicates that the industrial fundamentals have not deteriorated. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, the core focus of market dynamics is expected to quickly shift from "capital risk aversion" back to "supply-demand verification." As the peak season of "Golden March, Silver April" approaches, the market holds strong expectations for a demand recovery. If the post-holiday inventory buildup remains within a controllable range, coupled with raw material cost support above 1,050 yuan per mtu, stainless steel is poised to get off to a good start or experience a stabilization and rebound.

The theme of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum is "Financial Openness, Cooperation, and High-Quality Development amid Global Economic Changes." The forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18 to 19, 2025. The forum will invite high-level leaders from governments and financial regulatory agencies around the world, as well as leaders in the financial and economic sectors, renowned experts, and scholars. Li Kexin, Deputy Director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), previously disclosed that Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the PBOC, will attend the opening ceremony of the forum, deliver an opening speech, and give a keynote address. Additionally, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the PBOC and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will also attend and deliver a keynote address. Moreover, Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Finance, previously stated that during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies. It is reported that the forum will discuss topics such as "Enhancing the Coordination of Global Monetary Policies," "Promoting the Sustained and Steady Development of Capital Markets," "Deepening the Cooperative Development of Shanghai and Hong Kong as International Financial Centers," "Financial Support for the Development of New Quality Productive Forces," "AI-Empowered Financial Reform and Innovation: Opportunities and Challenges," "Improving the Equity and Accessibility of Inclusive Financial Services," and "Improving Green Financial Policies, Standards, and Product Systems." The aim is to provide enlightening ideas and suggestions for promoting global economic recovery and financial stability, as well as advancing China's financial reform and opening up (for specific arrangements, please refer to the latest agenda of the forum).

At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit - Main Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Allen Cui, Director of SMM Nonferrous Consulting, shared insights on the topic of "Prospects for the Development of the Global Secondary Metal Industry."

On June 12, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Main Forum, hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Han Xiao, General Manager of Zhishui Investment Co., Ltd., shared insights on the theme of "Review of Gold and Silver Market in 2025 and Future Outlook"...

On the afternoon of June 12, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council met with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Li Qiang stated that currently, China-EU relations have become one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the EU. Last month, President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with President Costa and President von der Leyen, providing strategic guidance for the two sides to further deepen their partnership. The essence of China-EU relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, and strengthening cooperation between the two sides is an objective need and the general trend. China is willing to continue working together with the EU to consolidate political mutual trust, expand pragmatic cooperation, and jointly promote development and prosperity, benefiting both sides and the world. Li Qiang pointed out that the Chinese and European economies are highly complementary. China boasts the advantage of a super-large market and is continuously unleashing its market potential, indicating significant cooperation potential between China and the EU in many fields. China is willing to strengthen market connectivity and industrial synergy with the EU to add more impetus to their respective development. Against the backdrop of the current headwinds facing economic globalization, cooperation is the only way to achieve win-win results. As two major economies and forces, China and the EU should closely coordinate on multilateral issues, promote open cooperation, and make greater contributions to driving the global economic recovery and improving global governance. China is willing to strengthen cooperation with the ECB in areas such as the reform of the international monetary system. This year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, intensified counter-cyclical adjustments, and adopted multiple measures to expand domestic demand and boost consumption, fully capable of offsetting the impact of external unfavourable factors. China will firmly expand its opening-up and share development opportunities with other countries. Lagarde stated that amid the current international situation full of uncertainties, it is crucial for Europe and China to maintain high-level exchanges, dialogue, and cooperation. The interests of Europe and China are intertwined, and they share common responsibilities in many aspects, such as safeguarding global financial stability and promoting the development of international trade. Tariff wars and trade wars will only lead to a lose-lose situation, and adhering to multilateralism and strengthening open cooperation are the correct choices. China's innovative development and corporate competitiveness in recent years have been impressive. The ECB is pleased to establish a meeting mechanism for central bank governors with China and hold its first meeting, committed to strengthening communication and coordination with Chinese financial institutions, expanding and deepening cooperation areas, jointly addressing global challenges, and injecting more stability and certainty into the world.