[SMM Steel] India’s finished steel imports surged 31% YoY to 679,000 mt in April, fueled by high domestic prices that created a profitable arbitrage gap for foreign suppliers. This growth was further bolstered by a slight reduction in safeguard duties and the cost-effectiveness of FTA-origin materials, such as duty-exempt Japanese steel. Additionally, logistical disruptions in the Middle East caused Asian shipments to be diverted to Indian ports, while imports from a key South Korean mill rose by over 30% month-on-month. However, the outlook remains uncertain, as the approaching June monsoon season may dampen domestic demand and weaken prices, potentially narrowing the current window for profitable importing.

In Q1 2026, China's hydrogen energy industry officially moved beyond the concept verification phase and fully entered a new stage of large-scale development. Two landmark events—the commissioning of Xinjiang Sunion Energy’s coke oven gas hydrogen production project and the cumulative hydrogen refueling volume exceeding 10,000 kilograms at the Batuta heavy-haul railway hydrogen refueling station in Inner Mongolia—have validated the core industry trend of cost reduction, scenario expansion and regional agglomeration from the two dimensions of low-cost hydrogen supply and diversified application scenarios respectively. I. Market Status: Accelerated Large-scale Development, Dual Breakthroughs in Supply and Application Hydrogen production capacity has achieved leapfrog growth, with Northwest and North China emerging as core agglomeration hubs. Driven by the dual-carbon strategy, China’s hydrogen production capacity has seen explosive growth. As of the end of March 2026, the completed and under-construction renewable energy hydrogen production capacity across China has surpassed 1 million tons per annum, among which the operational capacity exceeds 250,000 tons per annum, more than doubling compared with the end of 2024. The industrial layout shows a high geographical concentration; Northwest and North China have become core clusters by virtue of resource endowments.Jilin (over 90,000 tons per annum) and Inner Mongolia (over 80,000 tons per annum) have registered rapid development. The operational hydrogen production capacity in Northeast China accounts for 45.7% of the national total, shaping the initial industrial pattern of hydrogen supply from west to east and hydrogen transmission from north to south . The supply structure continues to optimize, and industrial by-product hydrogen production has become the mainstay of low-cost hydrogen supply. Currently, profound adjustments are taking place in China’s hydrogen supply structure. Boasting low cost and waste-to-energy advantages, industrial by-product hydrogen production has become the most economical pathway at this stage. Purifying hydrogen from coal chemical by-product coke oven gas features nearly zero raw material cost, perfectly matching cost-sensitive industrial scenarios. Meanwhile, driven by technological iteration, the cost of green hydrogen in multiple regions of Northwest China has dropped to 12–15 RMB per kilogram, gradually approaching the cost of gray hydrogen and laying a foundation for long-term low-carbon hydrogen supply. Application scenarios have evolved from demonstration to diversification, with industry and transportation acting as core growth engines. The year 2026 is regarded as the inaugural year for large-scale industrial application of hydrogen energy, with scenarios expanding rapidly into in-depth application fields. In the transportation sector, the commercial operation of hydrogen heavy-duty trucks has matured, with a thousand-unit scale put into operation in Lvliang, Shanxi. The launch of hydrogen refueling stations for heavy-haul railways fills the gap in carbon emission reduction for rail transit. In the industrial sector, a closed-loop model of on-site hydrogen production and consumption via by-product purification has taken shape among chemical enterprises. Industrial decarbonization has replaced transportation as the core driving force for industry growth. II. Recent Project Highlights: Two Benchmark Projects Accurately Align with Market Trends Xinjiang Sunion Energy’s coke oven gas hydrogen production project sets a model for industrial by-product hydrogen production. Recently, Xinjiang Sunion Energy’s 5,000 Nm³/h green hydrogen production project using coke oven gas was fully put into operation. The project converts waste industrial coke oven gas into high-purity clean hydrogen, realizing waste recycling and effectively solving exhaust emission problems, while supplying low-cost hydrogen to methanol plants. Furthermore, it provides a replicable development model for coal chemical agglomeration areas in Northwest China and boosts regional hydrogen supply capacity. The Batuta Hydrogen Refueling Station in Inner Mongolia marks a milestone in hydrogen energy application for heavy-haul railways. As of April 16, 2026, China’s first hydrogen refueling station for heavy-haul railways—the Batuta Station—has recorded a cumulative hydrogen refueling volume of over 10,000 kilograms. Equipped with a 45 MPa skid-mounted compressor and a maximum hydrogen refueling flow rate of 7.2 kg/min, the station is specially built for high-power hydrogen-powered shunting locomotives. It marks substantive progress in the application of hydrogen energy to heavy-haul railways, addresses the high-emission pain point of traditional locomotives, and verifies the stability of high-flow hydrogen refueling equipment under extreme cold and high-load operating conditions. III. Summary and Outlook In Q1 2026, China's hydrogen energy industry has entered a pragmatic stage focusing on economic efficiency calculation. From the utilization of coke oven gas in Xinjiang to hydrogen refueling for railways in Inner Mongolia, the industrial development logic is shifting from policy-driven alone to multi-dimensional driving led by resources, application scenarios and economic viability, which is expected to reshape the energy consumption pattern of industrial and transportation sectors.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced the preliminary results of its administrative review of the antidumping (AD) duty order on large diameter welded pipe from India for the period of May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024. The DOC preliminarily found that Welspun Corp Limited and its affiliates did not sell the subject merchandise at less than normal value, assigning a dumping margin of 0.00%. Additionally, the review was rescinded for 12 other Indian companies as they had no reviewable shipments during the period. This preliminary zero-margin finding for a major producer suggests a potential easing of trade barriers for specific Indian pipe exports, though final results are pending.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.

On May 1, 2026, the U.S. announced it would hike tariffs on EU-made cars and trucks to 25% this week, citing the EU’s failure to uphold the August 2025 trade agreement. The move is widely seen as a retaliation against the EU's proposed 50% MFN tariffs on steel imports. Amidst this escalating friction, major European stainless steel producers are capitalizing on the protectionist wave, projecting a doubling of earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a strategic bet on surging regional prices and structural supply shortages as EU trade defense measures and CBAM reshape the industrial landscape.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 27 – April 30), the most-traded PT2606 futures contract on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 504 yuan/gram and closed at 489.55 yuan/gram, down 13.35 yuan/gram (2.65%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 511.45 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 480.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded PD2606 futures contract opened at 365 yuan/gram and closed at 364.65 yuan/gram, up 2.9 yuan/gram (0.79%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 368.2 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 350.45 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded PT2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,824 lots with a total turnover of 9.305 billion yuan and open interest of 15,008 lots, down 512 lots WoW. The most-traded PD2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,512 lots with a total turnover of 4.128 billion yuan and open interest of 7,526 lots, down 317 lots WoW. US-Iran conflict: Geopolitical concerns remained unresolved. On April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from passing vessels. On April 29, the US prohibited US individuals or entities from paying Hormuz transit fees to Iran, and non-US individuals or entities paying Hormuz security transit fees to Iran would also face significant sanctions risks. On April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran abandoning nuclear weapons was the bottom line and said negotiations with Iran were being conducted by phone. US monetary policy: The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, but divisions intensified, with one member advocating an interest rate cut and three opposing the release of dovish signals. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainty over the economic outlook. Powell announced that after stepping down as chair, he would remain at the US Fed as a governor with his term extending into early 2028, breaking the decades-long convention of outgoing chairs departing when their successors took office. Powell stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the US Fed's ability to set monetary policy free from political interference and undermining the institution's stability. Trade and tariffs: After the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Executive Orders 122, 232, and 301; the US Department of Commerce and USITC's final antidumping and countervailing duty determinations on Russian palladium could lead to tariff raises, with attention on US palladium regional premiums. On the events front, continued focus should be on Middle East geopolitical developments and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be paid to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

On April 27, 2026, the European Union finalized the details of a new steel protection regulation scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2026, replacing the previous safeguard measures. The new regulation sets a total annual tariff-rate quota of approximately 18.35 million metric tonnes. Crucially, imports exceeding these quotas will now face a 50% punitive tariff (up from the previous 25% safeguard duty), reflecting a significantly more aggressive stance against global overcapacity. The EU also reaffirmed its commitment to fully phase out remaining Russian steel imports, particularly slabs, by September 30, 2028.

According to foreign media reports, the Indian government announced Monday evening that it will launch an investigation into certain aluminum wire products from Malaysia in response to review applications submitted by companies including Indian Aluminium Corporation, Vedanta, and Bharat Aluminium. The existing countervailing duties are set to expire in September, and the investigation aims to determine whether it is necessary to extend the tariffs.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

Dear Users, Greetings! Thank you for your continued attention and support for Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)! The SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price has now been officially launched. The price assessment methodology is described as follows. I. SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Provisions Shanghai Metals Market (hereinafter referred to as SMM) is a fully independent third-party service provider. SMM does not participate in any substantive transactions but maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in its capacity as a market observer or organizer, and provides relevant services to the market. Through communication and exchanges with industry professionals, SMM continuously develops, reviews, and revises its methodology, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry, and giving equal attention to all normal transactions that meet specification standards. SMM reserves the right to exclude from its price assessments any price data or information deemed less reliable or unrepresentative. SMM reports daily spot transaction prices in China's spot market, commonly referred to as SMM prices. SMM prices are generated strictly in accordance with defined methodologies. SMM has methodology definitions for all metal product prices it reports. All methodologies and definitions are published on SMM's official website (www.smm.cn) so that all market participants can understand the processes and standards of SMM price reporting. The SMM price assessment methodology serves as the basis and foundation for the generation of SMM prices. To reflect the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to its price assessment methodology. Any changes to the price assessment methodology will be published on SMM's official website at least 30 days in advance. Any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or the price assessment methodology may be directed to SMM client services as published on the website. This document specifies the standards and management methods for the formulation of the SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price. The purpose of establishing this standard is to create a transparent and verifiable SMM pricing mechanism and to provide market participants with an important pricing benchmark. II. Formation of the SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price 2.1. Definition The SMM Crude Lead Delivered Duty Paid Port Price is an indicative price formed and published by SMM in accordance with this methodology, which can be used by both parties to a transaction as a reference for the settlement of imported recycled crude lead spot trades. This price reflects: the duty-paid self pick-up price of imported recycled crude lead at major seaports on each business day in China's spot market; major seaports include Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou, etc.; lead content ≥98%, with defined antimony and tin content (tin 0.1–0.25%; antimony 0.1–0.35%). 2.2. Introduction to Price Formation SMM collects data for evaluating imported secondary crude lead spot prices through price collection (i.e., collecting raw data information that meets SMM standards), including quotations from buyers and sellers for transactions not concluded on the previous day provided by price submitters (i.e., data providers), actual spot transaction prices, expected quotations or % change for imported secondary crude lead on the day, etc. The SMM crude lead CIF duty-paid price aims to guide the quotation range of the imported secondary crude lead market for the day. The data collection and evaluation (calculation) of the SMM crude lead CIF duty-paid price, as well as daily management, are carried out by the SMM secondary lead business team (consisting of three members: Position A, Position B, and a price manager). 2.3. Generation of Pricing Methodology SMM price collection personnel collect prices from price collection contacts at price submitters every day from 9:00 to 11:30 (each trading day, consistent with SHFE trading days) via telephone, QQ, and WeChat, gathering intended prices, transaction prices, and related data for imported secondary crude lead at China's major seaports (price data submitted after 11:30 will not be used as a basis for the day's price evaluation). All instant messaging content, email communications, and records of any face-to-face communications will be archived, and details of telephone communications will be summarized and entered into the database. All paper records must be signed by price collection personnel and retained permanently. SMM price analysts collect price data in accordance with price collection standards, and combine the preliminary price data results with the corresponding market's spot conditions, futures conditions, policies, industry status, market transactions, supply and demand relationships, inventory levels, as well as other significant political, economic, and natural factors, to ultimately derive a preliminary raw dataset. SMM price analysts must comply with relevant SMM compliance policies when reporting to their supervisors any communications from market participants that are coerced or threatened, or any induced offers attempting to influence evaluation results. 2.4 Price Publication The SMM crude lead CIF duty-paid price is published at 11:40 Beijing time on each trading day on the SMM official website in both Chinese and English. (Excluding China's statutory holidays and weekends.) The deadline for price collection is 11:30 AM, and the 10-minute period between 10:30 and 10:40 is used for data verification and evaluation to calculate the final published secondary lead spot price. SMM encourages price submitters not to wait until the final deadline to submit data, in order to ensure that SMM price analysts have sufficient time to verify the data before incorporating it into the valuation process. The release time may also be affected by various emergencies and force majeure factors, such as power outages and natural disasters. If such situations occur, SMM will make every effort to publicly inform the market of the delayed price release time as early as possible. Prices published by SMM are available to any client who has subscribed to SMM services. Prices published by SMM are copyright-protected and may not be distributed or used for commercial gain by any third party that has not entered into an explicit agreement with SMM. III. Methodology Changes All markets evolve, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that its market-specific methodologies evolve in tandem. Therefore, based on industry feedback, SMM will periodically conduct internal reviews of the appropriateness of its methodologies and make modifications to all substantive but non-urgent potential issues. SMM will follow a formal external consultation process before publishing significant changes, providing a notice period of at least 28 days and inviting industry participants to comment, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, wars, exchange bankruptcies, etc.), necessitate a shortened notice period. SMM is committed to carefully reviewing all comments submitted regarding methodology changes, but in certain cases, it may be necessary to make changes to the methodology against the wishes of some market participants. In addition, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. We are fully aware of the importance of price information to industry development and will therefore continue to invest resources to ensure that the guidance prices we publish maintain a high level of accuracy and timeliness. We also welcome valuable opinions and suggestions from users to work together with us in promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the lead alloy market. Best regards! SMM Industry Research - Lead & Zinc Category Apr 2026