[SMM Nickel Flash] May 12 — On the supply side, supported by costs, the willingness to hold prices firm remained strong, though some enterprises slightly loosened their stance due to shipments pressure. Downstream steel mills maintained a cautious purchasing attitude, restocking primarily based on rigid demand, with notable resistance to high-priced sources, and end-user fear-of-heights sentiment showed no signs of easing. Overall market transactions were sluggish, and the price center declined.

According to the latest statistics from the GACC, total iron ore imports in April 2026 amounted to 103.854 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 889,000 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 0.8%. From January to April, cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates reached 418.587 million tonnes, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year. In April, steel mills generally exhibited subdued purchasing activity due to the limited cost-effectiveness of imported iron ore. Concurrently, rising premiums and shipping costs further compressed import margins, diminishing the purchasing intentions of some importers. Nonetheless, strong downstream demand resulted in high utilisation rates of blast furnaces within steel mills, sustaining elevated levels of pig iron production and maintaining robust iron ore demand. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to adjustments in some iron ore shipping routes originally designated for export to that region, with China increasingly serving as a transit and receiving hub, which contributed to an overall increase in China's iron ore imports. Consequently, despite a slight decrease in April, import levels remained broadly stable under the influence of various factors. Looking ahead to May, the gradual recovery of port facilities in major importing countries from weather-related disruptions is expected to facilitate a significant increase in shipments from key iron ore-producing nations. Meanwhile, steel mills are anticipated to sustain high operating rates driven by profit margins, indicating that demand for iron ore imports is likely to remain strong. Furthermore, overseas mines that commenced production earlier are still in the ramp-up phase, which will support continued shipment growth. The Simandou iron ore mine is projected to reach its first shipping peak in May, with the majority of shipments destined for China. However, the Labour Day holiday in May, which reduces working days and could impact customs clearance efficiency and data collection, may result in a marginal increase in China's iron ore imports compared to April.

[Inventory Buildup and Macro Tailwinds Offset Each Other, Aluminum Prices Trade in a Range] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market will further limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Demand Suppression and Cost Support, ADC12 Prices Move Sideways] On Monday, the ADC12 market was generally stable with slight rise. Most enterprises, influenced by the rebound in aluminum futures and rising aluminum scrap raw material costs, raised their quotes by 100 yuan/mt accordingly.

On May 11, 2026, iron ore futures rose first then retreated today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 822.5 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 3-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders quoted actively with strong willingness to transact; steel mills showed moderate inquiry willingness for procurement, with transactions mostly driven by rigid restocking demand; the overall spot transaction atmosphere remained subdued. According to the latest SMM survey data, global iron ore shipments totaled 29.3146 million mt last week, down 7.2 million mt WoW, a decline of approximately 20%. Shipments from both Australia and Brazil declined due to weather impacts, with Brazil's shipments seeing a larger drop. Combined with the previous week's shipment volumes, iron ore supply side may tighten in the short term if port pick-up volume remains at the same level. Currently, due to strong downstream demand, steel mill operating rates remained generally high, keeping rigid demand for iron ore elevated and providing relatively solid price support. Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways at elevated levels this week. However, given the cooling trend in spot transaction market activity and steel mills' low willingness to transact at high ore prices, subsequent blast furnace maintenance schedules need to be monitored to assess the trend.

[SMM Brass Billet News Flash] According to SMM, China's copper billet industry is expected to gradually enter the traditional consumption off-season in May. Downstream demand from sectors such as refrigeration and home appliances is expected to weaken further, and orders from traditional markets such as sanitary ware and hardware are unlikely to see significant improvement.

According to the latest report from Assofermet, the Italian stainless steel market is mired in uncertainty due to international crises and shifting U.S. trade policies. While downstream demand remains sluggish, with April sales decrease in both volume and value, the European producers are successfully hiking prices by leveraging looming trade barriers. The market is bracing for a 47% cut in import quotas starting July 1 and the ongoing cost pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). With import channels severely restricted, the industry has entered a "wait-and-see" phase, focusing on two pivotal dates: the July 1 safeguard implementation and the August 1 deadline for U.S.-EU trade negotiations.

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Transaction Prices Moved Lower, Chrome Market Weakened Overall] May 9, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market experienced slight fluctuations...

[EU] European HRC buyers largely paused new bookings while waiting for clearer details on the EU’s upcoming import quota allocation system. Transactions in Northern Europe were reported at €670-690/t ex-works for July-August delivery, while Italian domestic offers remained around €700/t delivered. Downstream demand stayed weak amid high inventories across ports and supply chains. Import offers remained limited and mostly uncompetitive as Asian mills resumed operations with higher prices, narrowing the gap between domestic EU prices and import costs after including CBAM expenses.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Post-Holiday Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Retreat after Rapid Rise, Market Lacks Fundamental Support SMM, May 8: SS futures continued their downward pullback trend. SS futures dropped rapidly at the opening of the night session, then moved sideways. The downward fluctuation trend continued after the daytime session opened. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,520 yuan/mt. Spot market side, affected by the continuous pullback in futures, the stainless steel spot market still held confidence in the outlook, with spot quotes remaining firm. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed mediocre performance. The most-traded SS futures contract fell and pulled back. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, down 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 200-400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the Wuxi average price remained flat, while the Foshan average price rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes rose by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven by wild swings in futures, with spot quotes pulling back after a rapid rise. The short-term price increase exceeded expectations and had limited correlation with its own fundamentals. End-user acceptance was insufficient, and transactions showed phased characteristics. This week was the first week after the Labour Day holiday. Earlier, the rapid rise in futures drove the market to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn, coupled with restocking demand due to insufficient pre-holiday stockpiling and purchases by futures-spot arbitrage institutions...