SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. After two major earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, several refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Another source said that the El Palito refinery, with a capacity of 146,000 barrels per day, had its power restored but staff have not yet been able to restart production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey shows that OPEC crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million bpd MoM to 19.43 million bpd, a notable rebound from the more than two-decade low hit in May but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output was mainly driven by resumption of supply from Gulf states, with Kuwait posting the largest increase, while Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya also slightly increased production. The UAE had withdrawn from OPEC on May 1 and was no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had caused supply disruptions, and the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping restore some output. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the war prevented full implementation. Overall, global crude oil supply is recovering but has yet to return to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading: > June China Copper Cathode Output Drops More Than Expected! [SMM Analysis] > SMM Overseas Aluminum Project Monthly Roundup: Commissioning More Concentrated, 2026–2027 [SMM Analysis] > Triple Shackles of Off-Season, Losses and Raw Materials: Secondary Lead Production Edges Higher in June, What’s the Outlook for July? [SMM Analysis] > July Refined Zinc Output Continues to Decline; Watch Actual Maintenance at Major Smelters [SMM Analysis] > [SMM Analysis] Domestic Tin Ingot Social Inventories Destock Sharply, Down Over 15% WoW > [SMM Analysis] Macro Expectations Wavered Amid Policy Games This Week, Nickel Prices Consolidated at Lows Seeking a Bottom > [SMM Analysis] Demand Transmission Hampered, Cobalt Price Rebound Pressure Remains Heavy > June Silicon Metal Output Up 8% MoM, Supply Increase to Extend into July [SMM Analysis] > [SMM Analysis] Intersolar 2026 Review: European PV Growth Slows, Policies and Yields Reshape Market Logic > Solid-State Battery 2026 Half-Year Review and Outlook: Building Up in H1, Sprinting in H2 [SMM Analysis] > June Global Tungsten Market Diverges: China Surges Then Pulls Back, Europe Stagnant at Highs [SMM Analysis] > Steel Tenders Weaken, Mines Hold Prices Firm – June 2026 Molybdenum Market Review and July Outlook Forecast [SMM Molybdenum Analysis] > H1 2026 Magnesium Market Saw Symmetrical Consolidation; Boom Fades and Prices Keep Weakening; Where Is the Floor for Magnesium? [SMM Analysis]

SMM, July 3: At the start of this week, the long-quiet cobalt market saw fresh news again—the DRC announced that unused quotas for H1 2026 will be automatically voided and transferred in a unified manner to the ARECOMS strategic quota pool. Boosted by this news, market pessimism was eased, and refined cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded, but weak downstream demand remained an inescapable topic in the cobalt market… SMM has compiled this week’s price changes for cobalt products as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of July 3, refined cobalt spot quotes stood at 378,000-385,000 yuan/mt, averaging 381,500 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from 379,500 yuan/mt on June 26, an increase of 0.53%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, mainstream smelters’ EXW prices first fell then rose during the week, and currently, EXW prices are stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After market stabilization, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread remaining in a range of parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, boosted by DRC-related news, downstream end-user inquiries warmed slightly, and weekly transactions improved slightly WoW, but most deals were for essential early stockpiling, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the near term, insufficient downstream demand support, combined with high industry inventories, may keep futures consolidating. A recovery in refined cobalt prices still requires an uptrend in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices edged down slightly on the first day and then remained stable this week. As of July 3, spot cobalt sulphate quotes were temporarily steady at 85,000-87,000 yuan/mt, averaging 86,000 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from June 26, a decline of 0.17%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes According to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week. On the supply side, primary smelters’ quotes remained firm overall, with mainstream enterprises holding their minimum shipment target price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Boosted by the mid-week DRC policy news, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders’ willingness to sell at lower prices weakened. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant recovery yet. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlements mostly used a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of price spread between purchase and sale at specific time points, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, and substantial restocking activities were likely delayed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices mainly consolidated. The sustained recovery of the market still needs to wait for the concentrated restocking demand from downstream to be realized. : According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quote of cobalt chloride drifted lower this week. As of July 3, cobalt chloride spot quotes fell to 102,500-104,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 103,250 yuan/mt, down 2,000 yuan/mt from 105,250 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 1.9%. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week. Inquiries increased somewhat, but actual transactions were still scarce. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026, which only caused a slight fluctuation in the market in the morning and calmed down in the afternoon, indicating that the market's focus had shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, own demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamental perspective, price rebound faced significant resistance, and the market remained pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelter quotes began to stabilize, with some enterprises even slightly raising quotes to test the market; but although downstream inquiries increased, actual implementation was limited. July prices will still need to wait for representative transactions to emerge before having reference significance. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment dominated purchasing decisions. Downstream enterprises were still observing whether the current stabilization was a mid-drop pause or a true bottom, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Overall assessment, short-term cobalt chloride prices are expected to be largely stable, with limited further downside room. : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes continued to decline this week. As of July 3, Co3O4 spot quotes fell to 315,000-330,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 322,500 yuan/mt, down 12,500 yuan/mt from 335,000 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 3.73%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish this week, with actual transactions being scarce. Supply side, the mid-year report window had passed, enterprises that were bearish earlier had largely completed their shipments, and after the phased selling pressure was released, quotes stabilized this week. Demand side, although the traditional purchasing window had opened, amidst sustained price pressure, downstream cathode material plants still mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance and continued to push for lower prices in purchasing. The persistently depressed prices further dampened upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the subsequent trajectory of Co3O4 will depend on the price direction of cobalt salts, with near-term movement likely to track sideways in tandem with cobalt chloride. On the raw material front for cobalt intermediate products, SMM spot price data showed that spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) edged down this week, with overall fluctuations remaining relatively small. As of July 3, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) stood at $24.25–25.5/lb, with an average of $24.875/lb, down $0.25/lb from the $25.125/lb recorded on June 26, a decline of 0.1%. SMM learned that trading in the spot cobalt intermediate product market was sluggish this week. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the revocation of miners' unused export quotas for H1 2026, significantly boosting long-term bullish sentiment in the market. Supported by this, mainstream miners kept their offers firm around the $25.5/lb level, while some traders' lowest shipment prices for small-lot cargoes stabilized near $24/lb. With cobalt salt market valuations currently running at low levels, a back-calculation based on spot cobalt salt prices suggests that downstream smelters would only accept raw material procurement prices around $23/lb. This creates a notable price spread between buyers and sellers, resulting in a stalemate with few actual transactions being concluded. In the short term, downstream smelting demand offers weak support, and intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A breakout to the upside would depend on a demand recovery driven by improved cobalt salt valuations. On the news front, at the start of this week, DRC policy once again roiled the market with the announcement, based on the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS) press release No. 2026/003, that unused quotas from H1 2026 would be revoked and reallocated into a strategic quota pool. Following the policy release, SMM quickly assessed its potential impact, measuring the supply of cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) into China for June-December 2026 and for 2027 based on two scenarios: 1. Based on market statistics, as of May 2026, miners in the DRC had only made prepayments for approximately 32,000 mt in metal content of cobalt intermediate products. Considering a shipping period of over three months from the DRC to China and the need to supply some cobalt resources to regions outside China, SMM assumes China's imports of cobalt intermediate products from June 2026 to December 2026 will be 46,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 500 mt. For 2027, assuming miners allocate 80% of the 87,000 mt in metal content quota for cobalt intermediate products to China, imports would be around 70,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 1,000 mt. 2. With the strong growth in China's recycled cobalt output this year driven by high economic viability, high-quality recycled cobalt that can partially substitute intermediate products is factored in as supplementary material. This would contribute approximately 18,000 mt in cobalt metal content of raw material from June to December 2026, and about 36,000 mt in cobalt metal content in 2027. From June to December 2026, demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) in China is expected to be around 58,000 mt in cobalt metal content, resulting in a slight surplus of 6,000 mt in cobalt metal content. This surplus is primarily attributed to the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products into ports from August 2026 onward. In 2027, China's demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-cobalt recycled supplementary materials) is approximately 105,000 mt Co, with a slight surplus of 3,000 mt Co. However, this surplus remains subject to the following uncertainties. First, if miners, after completing approvals, reduce circulation to control intermediate product prices, the market will still face relatively tight conditions. Second, the approval progress in the DRC remains relatively slow, and the future basic export quotas may not be fully shipped out. If imports fall short of expectations, the market will still face a relatively tight supply.

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.

According to SMM statistics, on July 2, aluminum billet inventory in China's mainstream consumption areas dropped to 130,000 mt, down 4,000 mt from last Monday and 10,000 mt from last Thursday, with the destocking pace accelerating markedly. Compared with the same period, it was 23,500 mt lower than in 2025 and 9,700 mt lower than in 2024, pushing total inventory to the lowest level for the same period in the past three years. In terms of warehouse withdrawals,

SMM News Release, July 3 Domestic molybdenum market saw a trend of correction at the start of June, rally in mid-month and narrow high-level fluctuations at month-end, with mainstream products posting modest gains throughout the month.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026. Weak nickel and a softening off-season demand backdrop offset firm mill pricing and low inventories, steadying the benchmark contract near RMB 14,655/mt

[Flat products (HRC)]HRC prices steady, trading muted as EU quota cuts hit exports No dedicated slab/HRC export daily was published on 3 July; latest figures are from 2 July. HRC and other flat prices held steady, with HRC deals at 488-497 USD/tonne alongside some lower RMB offers, and overall trading was muted. With EU quotas tightening, traders reportedly have shipped little to the EU since April, hitting hardest those with large prior EU export shares. [Billet]Export billet FOB steady at 458-461 USD, weak overseas order appetite On 3 July export billet was quoted at 458-461 USD/tonne FOB, holding steady. Southeast Asian enquiries picked up slightly, but domestic offers remained relatively high and overseas buyers were reluctant to place orders, mostly staying on the sidelines. [Rebar]Rebar export offers steady, enquiry muted with small Hong Kong deals On 3 July rebar export offers were steady, with sentiment staying wait-and-see and enquiry generally muted. Traders reported small deals in Hong Kong recently, mostly need-based purchases, with overall trading lackluster

Nearly one year after China reopened qualified black mass imports, the market has evolved differently from initial expectations. While stronger linkages have emerged between China's domestic and overseas markets, water-soluble fluorine remains a key constraint on direct imports. Meanwhile, overseas intermediate processing has gained attention as an alternative supply chain model, reflecting the industry's growing focus on cross-border resource integration and supply chain optimization.

2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Against a backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and the in-depth advancement of high-quality development in China, the zinc industry is undergoing profound transformation: tightness on the ore side and the release of smelting capacity are creating structural tension, divergence between domestic and overseas inventories reflects the complex dynamics of supply-demand rebalancing, and technological innovation is becoming a key driving force for resolving conflicts and reshaping the industry pattern. New energy, new-type infrastructure, and other key areas under the 15th Five-Year Plan are injecting new momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon, and circular economy principles are also accelerating the restructuring of industrial logic, driven by technological innovation. With the support of upstream and downstream enterprises in the zinc industry, industry associations, and all relevant parties, the 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference along with the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development & Technology Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salt, Zinc Oxide & Zinc Secondary Resources Development Forum, and the Cast Zinc Alloy Development Forum will be held on August 6–8 in Qingdao, Shandong Province. Under the theme "Gathering Zinc Momentum · Building the Zinc Industry · Embarking on a New Journey," the conference will be driven by macro perspectives and fundamental analysis as dual engines, closely follow the high-quality development path defined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and focus on four dimensions: macro policies, supply-demand pattern, global trade, and technological innovation. It aims to drive cost reduction and efficiency gains through technological breakthroughs, address market volatility through collaborative innovation, and jointly chart a new blueprint for the high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry. Xuzhou RITMAN Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, discuss industry development trends with industry peers, and jointly advance the zinc industry to new heights. Click to register now and join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event to create a brilliant new chapter together! RITMAN is a service-oriented industrial enterprise with over 40 years of deep expertise in coating technology. Guided by the mission of "continuously creating value for clients," it focuses on two core directions—intelligent manufacturing and green low-carbon—and provides global users with integrated one-stop solutions covering process planning, equipment customization, chemical matching, and full lifecycle operation and maintenance. The company’s core business matrix encompasses batch coating equipment, continuous coating equipment, pickling and conversion film equipment, electrophoretic coating equipment, metal surface treatment chemicals, laser processing equipment, and more. To date, RITMAN has delivered over 500 production lines globally, with business covering multiple countries and regions across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas, accumulating proven delivery experience across various industries and operating conditions. Leveraging a nationwide service network and overseas operation centers, it can quickly respond to clients’ localized service needs, ensuring stable line operation and long-term value generation. ◆ Contact Us ◆ Tel: 0516-83152272 Website: www.rmznjs.com Email: info@sinoritman.com Address: No. 35 Chuangye Road, Xuzhou Economic Development Zone, Jiangsu Long press the QR code to register now 2026 SMM Zinc Conference

This week, the domestic iron ore concentrates market weakened slightly with regional divergence. Prices in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi of Hebei were basically stable; western Liaoning’s Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping areas pulled back slightly by 5-10 yuan/mt; east China pulled back 10-15 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, China’s iron ore supply tightness is expected to be hard to ease. Demand side, according to SMM tracking data, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces may pull back slightly, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Steel mills’ desire to bargain down prices will remain dominant. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persists. Next week, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums overall. [SMM Steel]