As major global technology companies rush to buy memory chips, SK Hynix is being actively courted by these companies, which have proposed plans to invest in its new production lines and finance the purchase of expensive manufacturing equipment. According to six people familiar with the matter, the company's clients have presented multiple partnership proposals to the South Korean chipmaker, including investing in the construction of dedicated memory production lines. Three other people familiar with the matter said another proposal involves clients providing financing for equipment purchases, such as ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. These machines are used to etch circuits on wafers and are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The chipmaker is reportedly cautious about accepting financial commitments from clients, as such deals could make it beholden to specific buyers and force it to supply chips at lower prices in exchange for longer-term, more stable revenue guarantees.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.

The correction in precious metal prices initially continued as expected over the course of this week.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

28 Apr 2026, 05:00 AM Gold steadies as traders await Iran talks and key central bank cues. Firmer dollar and higher oil prices limit bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Fed outlook and Hormuz risks keep gold locked in a narrow range. Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains, as investors weighed uncertain US-Iran diplomacy and a heavy week of central bank decisions against the pressure of a stronger dollar and firmer oil prices. Bullion found some support from persistent geopolitical risk, but that was offset by caution over the outlook for interest rates. Spot gold was broadly steady at $4,679.06 an ounce, while US gold futures were little changed at $4,693.20. The market tone suggested investors were reluctant to build large positions before clearer signals emerged from Washington, Tehran and the world’s major central banks. US dollar and oil curb demand The immediate drag on gold came from currency and energy markets. The dollar strengthened as traders turned defensive after hopes for a quick breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations faded, while oil prices rose sharply on concern that tensions in the Middle East could keep supply routes under strain. That combination has proved difficult for bullion. Rising oil prices and a firmer dollar have recently weighed on gold by reinforcing a higher-for-longer view on interest rates and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Gold had already fallen to an over one-week low around $4,697 in recent sessions, highlighting how the rally has lost momentum as yields and the dollar strengthened. Investors who had chased the metal higher earlier in the month are now reassessing whether geopolitical anxiety alone is enough to drive a fresh leg up. For now, the answer appears to be no. So long as oil remains elevated and the dollar stays firm, gold may struggle to break convincingly higher even when demand for safety remains intact. Central banks take centre stage The other major restraint is monetary policy. Investors are awaiting a series of interest-rate decisions and official comments that could help define whether borrowing costs stay restrictive for longer than markets had expected. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the tone of its guidance will matter. A Reuters poll found that the Fed may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy prices feed inflation, reinforcing the view that policy easing could be pushed further out. That matters for gold because higher rates and firmer bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Attention is also on other major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. With oil back at the centre of the inflation debate, investors will want to know whether policymakers see the recent energy shock as temporary noise or a more durable threat to price stability. Iran talks remain the key geopolitical driver Developments between Washington and Tehran continue to shape the broader market mood. President Donald Trump was reported to be dissatisfied with Iran’s latest nuclear proposal, raising doubts about the chances of a quick diplomatic resolution. That has kept traders focused on the risk of further disruption across the region, especially around Hormuz, where shipping uncertainty remains a major issue for oil markets. For gold, the geopolitical backdrop is supportive in theory but complicated in practice. Safe-haven demand tends to rise when conflict intensifies, yet the same tensions can also push oil higher, lift inflation expectations and strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated. That is why bullion has stayed range-bound rather than breaking decisively in either direction. The result is a market caught between fear and restraint: enough anxiety to keep gold supported, but not enough to overpower the combined headwinds of a stronger dollar, higher yields and costly energy. Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/28/why-are-gold-prices-failing-to-surge-despite-rising-global-uncertainty/

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME Zinc Recorded a Shaven-Head Bearish Candlestick with Daily Candlestick Center Shifting Downward] Overnight LME zinc recorded a shaven-head bearish candlestick, with the daily candlestick center shifting downward and the 5-day moving average forming resistance above. As increased uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict triggered inflation concerns, the US dollar strengthened, non-ferrous metals were overall in the doldrums, and bears

According to Deutsche Bank's analysis, as central banks around the world continue to increase the share of gold in their reserve assets, the precious metal still has room for further gains. Sachdeva, Mallika, a strategist at the bank, noted in a report published on Monday that as monetary policymakers seek tools to hedge against geopolitical turmoil, gold's share in global central bank reserves has risen from about 10% in the 1990s to 30% today. Meanwhile, the US dollar's share in foreign central bank reserves has fallen from over 60% to 40%. Sachdeva said: "The gap between the dollar and gold's share in reserves is now only 10 percentage points, which is extremely noteworthy." The London-based strategist believes that central banks appear to be reversing the 1990s trend, when they shifted asset allocations from gold to the US dollar. Sachdeva also acknowledged that about 80% of the increase in gold's share of central bank reserves was due to the rise in gold prices themselves rather than new purchases. Last year, gold posted its strongest annual gain since 1979 — ironically, the year of the Iranian Revolution. Over the past 12 months, gold prices have risen by more than 40% cumulatively. However, Sachdeva pointed out that central bank purchases still accounted for a significant share of the growth in reserve holdings, and it was often central bank buying that drove gold prices higher. He said: "Therefore, there is an endogenous link between purchases and prices, and the two together have driven the increase in gold's share." Gold has long been regarded by investors as a safe-haven asset during times of global conflict. Since 2022, this attribute has continuously driven investors toward gold — first due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and then the US and Israeli strikes against Iran. The strategist said that the next move in gold prices will partly depend on how much gold and US dollars emerging economy central banks will ultimately hold. Deutsche Bank's analysis of International Monetary Fund (IMF) data showed that since the global financial crisis, all central bank gold purchases have come from emerging market central banks. Sachdeva further stated that even if total foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets decline to $5 trillion, as long as they set a target of 40% for gold's share in their reserves, gold prices could reach $8,000 per ounce over the next five years. This level would be approximately 70% above current gold prices.

SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,286/mt, with the center fluctuating upward to a high of $13,330/mt in the early session before declining, touching a low of $13,139/mt near the end of the session, and finally closing at $13,154.5/mt, down 0.68%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 279,000 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,300 yuan/mt, with the center rising to a high of 102,810 yuan/mt in the early session, before the center declined near the end of the session to a low of 102,060 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 102,100 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 1,148 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

SMM April 20: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper was up 0.79%. SHFE aluminum was down 1.22%. SHFE lead was up 0.18%, and SHFE zinc was up 1.08%. SHFE tin was up 0.26%, and SHFE nickel was down 0.88%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.1%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.32%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.05%. The most-traded polysilicon futures hit the daily limit up with a 9% gain. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.8%, hot-rolled coil up 0.9%, and stainless steel down 0.23%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 2.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, most LME metals rose. LME copper was down 0.21%. LME aluminum was up 0.66%, LME lead edged up, and LME zinc was up 0.61%. LME tin was down 0.28%. LME nickel was up 1.53%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold was down 1.32%, and COMEX silver was down 1.8%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.1%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.84%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.23%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 0.23%, at 2,100 points. As of 11:40 on April 20, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals...... Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: Total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively from January to March, up 5.2% YoY] The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for March. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of electricity consumption by sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, electricity consumption for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services was 37.6 billion kWh and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates reaching 53.8% and 44.0% respectively. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Rates Released: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Remained Unchanged for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Property Projects] Recently, the "Notice of Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing Trade-in Program" was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a comprehensive solution that systematically addresses bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in the involvement of multiple real estate enterprises: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.05% at 98.28. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of the US Fed cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that US Fed Governor Milan and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously hotly debated "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and other sources of reserve demand. Monte Carlo simulations estimated the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data) On other currencies: Asian Development Bank President Kanda Masato stated that the yen could face further pressure if the market perceives the Bank of Japan as acting too slowly in addressing inflation risks. Kanda Masato, who previously served as Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat, told reporters on Friday evening that investors buy US dollars during periods of global tension partly because the US is an oil exporter, but even if these positions are unwound, the yen would find it difficult to appreciate significantly against the US dollar. He said: "The biggest reason is the interest rate differential. As the market pays particular attention to what the US Fed might do, if many people believe the Bank of Japan will fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks, the yen will be left behind." Kanda Masato said during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group meetings in Washington this week that investors could also sell the yen if they are concerned about Japan's fiscal sustainability. (Jin10 Data) On data: Germany's March PPI month-over-month rate and Canada's March CPI month-over-month rate, among other data, were to be released today. Also worth watching: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. On crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 5.73% and Brent up 5.38%. Last Friday, the market was still celebrating ceasefire prospects, but within 72 hours over the weekend, the situation took a sharp turn — the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, the US seized an Iranian vessel, and Trump issued tough threats, quickly dashing the market's optimistic sentiment. (Wall Street Insights) The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Project Management Office website under the US Department of Energy (DOE) released information on the 17th stating that it would lend over 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 9 oil enterprises. This was the third batch of petroleum reserves released by the Trump administration to stabilize oil prices since the US-Israel-Iran conflict began on February 28. (Jin10 Data) Australia's Viva Energy Group stated that its refinery in Geelong, Australia, would increase production of diesel, aviation fuel, and gasoline to 90% of full capacity in the coming weeks, after a major fire forced it to reduce production. The company stated that its inventory was sufficient to cover the production decline and was not expected to impact clients. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report stated that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw further positive developments. Although the first round of negotiations "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted market optimism, despite subsequent fluctuations. This was largely consistent with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, the situation ultimately spiraling out of control in the medium term is not the base case scenario. Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation does not serve either side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. 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