[SMM Copper Flash News] During the day, copper futures warrants continued to flow out by 7,475 mt, including 2,745 mt from Shanghai, 4,129 mt from Guangdong, and 601 mt from Jiangsu. At present, spot discounts for copper cathode in Shanghai and Jiangsu have narrowed, while in Guangdong, quotes were firmer due to continued destocking.

This week, the price spread between the TD price on the Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract did not continue to narrow, and the total quoted trading volume of circulating imported silver ingot cargoes in the market had already declined from March. Although many suppliers still held prices firm and were reluctant to sell due to costs and delivery intentions, among other reasons, downstream just-in-time procurement generally transacted at sharply lowered premiums after aggressive bargaining. Investment demand in the Shenzhen market was sluggish, and some suppliers dumped non-registered brand silver ingots at quotes on parity with TD or at slight discounts. Overall spot market transactions remained weak. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD premiums edged down to 60-80 yuan/kg, while a small number of end-users' small orders of less than 50 kg were still concluded at premiums of 80-100 yuan/kg. Some holders of standard silver ingots suspended quotations and intended to make delivery, while enthusiasm for stockpiling on dips did not improve, and sluggish spot market trading remained unchanged. Inventory side, spot market consumption did not improve this week. Downstream just-in-time procurement maintained aggressive bargaining, with transactions mainly concluded at lowered premiums. Many suppliers did not accept price cuts to sell cargoes, and mentioned increased delivery intentions next week, transferring silver ingot inventory from non-delivery warehouses to delivery warehouses. Social inventory of silver ingots posted a slight buildup.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Tight Supply and Recovering Demand Drove Magnesium Prices Steadily Higher This Week, Breaking 17,500] This week, China's magnesium industry chain as a whole held up well. On the raw material side, the dolomite market remained stable. Part of the suspended output in core production areas was supplemented by supply from surrounding regions, while stable operating rates at downstream primary magnesium smelting plants supported demand and the supply-demand balance. Affected by rising crude oil prices, subsequent delivered prices may rise slightly. The magnesium ingot market stayed firm, and both production and sales in major producing areas were strong. Geopolitical disruptions pushed up energy expectations, prompting producers to hold back sales and tightening supply. Rigid downstream demand, export order lock-ins, and a boost from industry conferences jointly drove magnesium prices higher. Offshore quotations were adjusted in line with ex-factory prices, and although bidding-based shipment prices were low at the beginning of the week, they rebounded later, while new orders declined. Magnesium powder remained firm, supported by higher magnesium ingot prices, while increased operating rates at magnesium plants ensured supply and both domestic and overseas demand recovered. The magnesium alloy market also stayed strong, with stable operating rates at top-tier enterprises, new capacity coming on stream, and downstream end-use demand being released, supported by ample orders and a supply-demand balance.

SMM News, Apr 2: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center moving higher than the previous day. Affected by elevated aluminum prices, shipping sentiment was stronger than buying sentiment, while end-user downstream purchase sentiment was weak and spot cargo circulation was relatively ample. Market transactions were mainly concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to the SMM A00 aluminum average price. Today, the east China market shipping sentiment index was 3.43, up 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.01, up 0.01 MoM. Aluminum futures prices remained elevated, but in the central China market, traders were overall more bullish than bearish. Although downstream orders were not enough to support excessive stockpiling, traders were relatively active in purchasing for hedging purposes. After the initial stage, shipments from sellers declined, while higher-bid purchasing increased, driving market quotes and transaction prices all the way up. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to the central China price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipping sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.44, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 2,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong as the main source of the inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose somewhat. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices held steady, and manganese sulphate prices increased slightly. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term contracts; some producers saw slight increases in nickel and cobalt discounts, while some producers may still have some room for negotiation on processing fees. However, as downstream demand for high-priced raw materials remained weak, upside room is expected to be limited. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for March spot orders had already moved higher, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room is expected to be limited. Production, as China entered the off-season for demand this month, some enterprises saw their production schedules pull back. The export tax rebate deadline had passed, and production intensity at some enterprises related to the rush to export also declined. Looking ahead, cost support for sulphates remained relatively strong, but downstream acceptance of prices will depend on Q2 downstream demand.

Platinum prices continued to hold up well today. The most-traded platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, PT2606, closed the morning session at 493.8 yuan/g, down 2.84%. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum in the morning session were at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g to PT2606, or quoted at 5-7 yuan/g against the Shanghai Gold Exchange's sell-1 price. Spot discounts were unchanged from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that cargo-holding traders reported that market orders remained limited and consumption was average. In the morning session, spot platinum quoted at around an 8 yuan/g discount to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was difficult to transact. Some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market actively offered quotations in search of spot-futures price spread opportunities, while downstream players still mainly stayed on the sidelines. Some enterprises reported relatively sufficient stockpiling and low purchase willingness. Overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Supply side, as the import window has opened, expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China have strengthened, and some imported cargo circulated in the market during the day, continuously pressuring spot discounts. Meanwhile, according to SMM, some smelters had a need to reduce inventory ahead of the holiday and intended to accelerate the pace of shipments, further increasing circulation pressure in the spot market. Demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, with overall procurement still dominated by just-in-time procurement and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises may have pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which could provide some support to the spot market, but is expected to be insufficient to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

In North China today, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 100 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price was 95,910 yuan/mt, down 915 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.