Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 92,910 yuan/mt, touching a low of 92,060 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before the center fluctuated upward. It probed up to 92,930 yuan/mt near the close and ultimately settled at 92,820 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Open interest stood at 9,532 lots, down 304 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume was 8,379 lots, down 736 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate remained stable, but the consumer confidence index fell to a new periodic low. Meanwhile, disturbed by concerns over ore-side shortages, copper prices exhibited a high-level fluctuating trend moving sideways. Fundamentals side, short-term import arrivals saw limited incremental volumes, domestic supply arrivals remained relatively low, and the supply landscape stayed tight. Demand side, downstream acceptance of high copper prices was limited, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. As of Monday, May 11, SMM copper inventories across mainstream regions nationwide decreased by 10,300 mt WoW from after the holiday to 242,600 mt. The SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 104,620 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract price of 92,820 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 104,887 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -267 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that narrowed from the previous day.

[SMM Steel] India’s finished steel imports surged 31% YoY to 679,000 mt in April, fueled by high domestic prices that created a profitable arbitrage gap for foreign suppliers. This growth was further bolstered by a slight reduction in safeguard duties and the cost-effectiveness of FTA-origin materials, such as duty-exempt Japanese steel. Additionally, logistical disruptions in the Middle East caused Asian shipments to be diverted to Indian ports, while imports from a key South Korean mill rose by over 30% month-on-month. However, the outlook remains uncertain, as the approaching June monsoon season may dampen domestic demand and weaken prices, potentially narrowing the current window for profitable importing.

[SMM Analysis]Secondary Aluminum Operating Rate Declined in April, with Downward Pressure Persisting in May

[Middle East Tensions Drive Surge in Demand for Affordable EVs in Europe] Driven by rising fuel prices caused by the Middle East conflict, demand for affordable EVs in Europe surged, with a large number of low-income households shifting to new energy car models. Data from Germany's largest car trading platform, Mobile.de, showed that inquiries for affordable EVs priced below 30,000 euros surged 87% since early March, with car models such as the Renault Zoe topping the best-seller list. In April, inquiries for used EVs aged 5 to 7 years in the UK tripled YoY, far outpacing interest in newer and more expensive EV models.

India and Peru are expected to resume negotiations on a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) in June 2026, according to Peru’s ambassador to India, with both sides also discussing a critical minerals chapter that includes copper supply cooperation. Hindalco Industries is reportedly in talks to source copper from Peru. Peru is the world’s third-largest copper producer, with output reaching around 2.7 million mt in 2024. As India’s electrification and energy transition demand continue to rise, market attention remains focused on Indian companies securing overseas copper resources and long-term supply chains.

Today, the DCE Iron ore futures rose first then retreated. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 822.5 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 3-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders were active in offering quotes with strong willingness to close deals; steel mills showed moderate willingness to inquire for purchases, with most transactions driven by rigid restocking demand; the overall spot trading atmosphere remained subdued.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong raised wet-quenched coke prices by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching prices by 55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on May 11, 2026, marking the implementation of the third round of coke price increases. Supply side, cost support for coke strengthened recently, and coke producers saw good order-taking activity, with rush delivery requests emerging in the market, keeping coke supply in a tight balance. Demand side, steel mill profits expanded notably, production enthusiasm remained high, daily average hot metal production continued to fluctuate at highs, coke demand stayed strong, and steel mills were active in purchasing. In summary, following the implementation of the third round of coke price increases, the coke market is expected to be generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

【SMM Steel】PT Krakatau Osaka Steel ceased production in late April 2026 and plans to end all operations by June. Chronic losses since 2022 due to weak construction demand and a surge of inexpensive imports, particularly from China, led to the decision. The govt is reviewing strategies to protect local manufacturers from global oversupply and price pressure. Current support includes import controls and special gas pricing, but additional policies are needed. The company must respect labor rights during the transition. The exit reflects national steel sector struggles.

On May 11, 2026, iron ore futures rose first then retreated today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 822.5 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 3-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders quoted actively with strong willingness to transact; steel mills showed moderate inquiry willingness for procurement, with transactions mostly driven by rigid restocking demand; the overall spot transaction atmosphere remained subdued. According to the latest SMM survey data, global iron ore shipments totaled 29.3146 million mt last week, down 7.2 million mt WoW, a decline of approximately 20%. Shipments from both Australia and Brazil declined due to weather impacts, with Brazil's shipments seeing a larger drop. Combined with the previous week's shipment volumes, iron ore supply side may tighten in the short term if port pick-up volume remains at the same level. Currently, due to strong downstream demand, steel mill operating rates remained generally high, keeping rigid demand for iron ore elevated and providing relatively solid price support. Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways at elevated levels this week. However, given the cooling trend in spot transaction market activity and steel mills' low willingness to transact at high ore prices, subsequent blast furnace maintenance schedules need to be monitored to assess the trend.

[SMM Steel] Ternium reported Mexican steel shipments rose 4% y/y to 2 million tonnes in Q1 2026. Q2 shipments are expected to continue improving driven by commercial markets. Several infrastructure projects will drive demand. Higher steel prices partly offset lower shipments. Mexico has strengthened tariff/trade enforcement to mitigate US tariffs and resist low-priced Asian imports. The govt signed a deal with Mexican steelmakers including Ternium to purchase 200,000 tonnes of steel for infrastructure. Ternium expects its Pesqueria cold mill/galvanizing line to near full capacity by October. Slab facilities are progressing as expected.