July 7, 2026 Has the worst of the selling pressure on gold and silver finally passed? Although the gold price has not yet managed to break through the first resistance level above $4,200, Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank, sees clear signs that the months-long correction is coming to an end. In his view, the market environment is currently shifting from pure liquidation toward a sustainable bottoming-out process, during which precious metals are once again being selectively accumulated. U.S. Monetary Policy as the Key Driver for a Breakout The next major price movement depends largely on macroeconomic conditions. Although the market is still pricing in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, disappointing labor market data—with only 57,000 new jobs created in June—has already tempered the most aggressive forecasts. In addition, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, recently signaled that inflation risks are subsiding. Speaking to Kitco News, Hansen consequently stated that he does not expect another interest rate hike this year. Falling energy prices and waning inflationary pressure are undermining the basis for a restrictive monetary policy. Once this realization takes hold in the market, a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to give the gold price a massive boost. Technical Correction Phase and Momentum Opportunities for Silver Despite the improvement in fundamentals, gold is still technically in a correction phase and remains 26 percent below its January high. While support below $4,000 has been successfully defended, investors have so far used rallies toward $4,200 to reduce their positions. For a genuine trend reversal, the precious metal must first break above the 200-day moving average at $4,485 as well as the key correction retracement level at $4,574. A similar picture is emerging for silver, which, after the recent selling wave halted in the mid-$50 range, staged a constructive rally above the $60 mark before being capped at $63.27. Silver combines gold’s macroeconomic sensitivity with an extremely tight fundamental environment characterized by multi-year supply deficits and rising industrial demand. Due to its smaller market size, the white metal remains highly attractive to momentum investors, but its heavy reliance on short-term capital flows means it still requires strong nerves in the face of sudden shifts in market sentiment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-the-sell-off-over-gold-and-silver-may-be-on-the-verge-of-their-next-breakout

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. At the same time, gold is also benefiting from optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized his commitment to price stability and returning inflation to the central bank's target. However, he also said inflation risks had eased in recent weeks since taking over leadership of the Federal Reserve. In a comment to Kitco News, Hansen said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease, in line with Warsh’s comments. “Forward inflation expectations have collapsed, so tightening when the reason for tightening is easing with energy prices slumping makes no sense. Once that becomes the general market view, the dollar will soften as a very elevated long gets squeezed while short-end bond yields will move back towards Fed Funds rates,” he said. However, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer, Hansen said gold still has a lot of ground to recover, with prices remaining 26% below January’s highs. “Support below USD 4,000 has held so far, but the rebound towards USD 4,200 last week was met with renewed selling, indicating that some investors are still using strength to reduce exposure. Such price action is typical after a deep correction and helps explain why building a durable market trough can take time,” he said. “On the charts, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,485 represents the first major hurdle. Above that, the 38.2% retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 January-to-June correction sits near USD 4,574. A break above these levels would further improve the technical picture. Until then, the recovery is better viewed as an attempt to build a base." Along with growing optimism toward gold, Hansen said he is also encouraged by the recent price action in silver, even though prices on Monday were capped at $63.27 an ounce. “ Silver ’s latest sell-off was arrested ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s, with the subsequent rebound taking prices back above USD 60. The move is encouraging, but like gold, silver still has considerable work to do to repair the technical and psychological damage inflicted during the past few months. Silver combines gold ’s macro sensitivity with a tighter fundamental backdrop. Multi-year supply deficits and growing industrial demand provide structural support, but the market is much smaller and more flow-sensitive than gold. That makes silver particularly attractive to momentum-driven investors when conditions improve, while also exposing it to sharper liquidation when sentiment reverses,” he said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-price-may-have-found-its-floor-liquidation-gives-way-consolidation

The US announced it will not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and will initiate a 10-year transition period to gradually phase out the trade pact. The decision follows a six-year review of the North American free trade framework, with the US seeking changes to bring more manufacturing jobs back and reduce trade deficits. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mexico hopes to address US concerns over employment and trade imbalances, but differences remain on stricter auto rules of origin. Canada's Dominic LeBlanc said Canada will continue discussions with the US on tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber. All parties agreed continued dialogue remains important.

The China rhenium market in H1 2026 generally saw an initial rise and stabilization, followed by a mild pullback and consolidation at highs, driven by four core factors: rigid raw material supply, supply-demand tug-of-war in the industry chain, structural divergence between investment and industrial demand, and price divergence between domestic and overseas markets. In H1, rhenium prices remained supported at high levels by structural supply deficits, yet trading stayed persistently sluggish with strong industry-wide wait-and-see sentiment; there was no clear unilateral trend, and a tug-of-war between longs and shorts ran throughout the period. I. Early February: Cooling Trading, Counter-Trend Price Rise In early February, the rhenium market showed a typical split: market activity fell MoM, but prices climbed steadily. On the sentiment side, gold and silver price fluctuations triggered a cautious mood across precious metals, which spilled over into the minor metals segment—there were many inquiries but few actual deals, with only small amounts of rigid demand supporting transactions, and cautious selling by retail investors led to a significant cooling in trading. On the price side, the core support came from tightening raw material supply. Ammonium rhenate supply remained tight and prices rose, sharply lifting smelting costs for midstream processors and pushing up finished product prices like rhenium pellets. Meanwhile, raw material prices rose faster than the pace of finished product price adjustments, squeezing midstream margins; the industry widely increased scrap recovery ratios to offset cost pressure. At that time, Sinopec’s tender for ammonium rhenate failed, confirming upstream producers’ inclination to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, bullish on the outlook. In the medium and long term, incremental rhenium recovery from copper-molybdenum smelting is limited by raw ore grades and technical barriers, making it difficult to fully close the supply gap, which provides sustained high-level support for rhenium prices. II. Post-Chinese New Year to Early Q2: High-Level Stalemate, Intensified Supply-Demand Tug-of-War After the Chinese New Year holiday, the rhenium market entered a prolonged consolidation phase at highs. Mainstream quotations for raw materials stabilized at 27,000–28,000 yuan/kg, with a few high-priced sources touching 30,000 yuan/kg; the price range was firm with minimal fluctuations. Upstream hold-back-from-selling attitudes gradually softened, with small-scale selling to test market acceptance, but without concentrated dumping, supply increments were manageable and the rigid supply structure remained intact. Midstream processors focused on delivering pre-holiday orders, with production schedules full from March to April. However, their acceptance of high-priced ammonium rhenate was low, and they generally negotiated rationally, refusing to rush to buy amid the continuous price rise. Downstream demand showed structural divergence: investment appetite continued to cool—retail investors exited and low-price selling increased, weighing on market sentiment; meanwhile, steady recovery in industrial demand from aviation, catalysts, and other sectors provided fundamental support, offsetting some bearish factors. At the same time, capital rotated into the energy sector, and speculative interest in minor metals waned, leaving rhenium prices lacking strong upward momentum. Overseas critical mineral competition intensified, raising import supply chain uncertainty and providing long-term bottom support for the market. III. Late Q2: China Pulls Back Weakly, Overseas Strengthens Against Trend In late H1, China’s rhenium market weakened slightly, with raw material and finished product prices pulling back simultaneously, while overseas markets rose independently, resulting in a significant divergence between domestic and overseas trends. In China, the mainstream transaction range for ammonium perrhenate pulled back to 26,000-27,000 yuan/kg, and small and medium-sized producers offered low-priced goods to recoup funds, with spot order prices dropping to 24,000-25,000 yuan/kg, dragging down the overall price center. The mainstream transaction price for rhenium pellets pulled back to around 46,000 yuan/kg. The tug-of-war in the industry chain further intensified. After concentrated restocking at the beginning of the year, downstream inventories were sufficient. Entering the traditional off-season, purchasing sentiment was cautious, with a strong willingness to push for lower prices and probe the bottom, mostly making purchases based on rigid demand in small lots. Upstream still held expectations for the future market, controlling volumes and selling cautiously, which capped the downside room and prevented a sharp decline. Overseas markets saw strong demand resilience and tight supply, with prices of ammonium perrhenate and rhenium pellets continuing to rise. However, the rise in overseas markets had limited boosting effect on the domestic market, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to diverge. IV. Summary of Key Bullish and Bearish Factors in H1 (I) Key Bullish Factors First, as a rare and dispersed metal by-product of copper and molybdenum, rhenium has strong primary supply rigidity, while recovery capacity release is slow, leading to a long-standing structural supply-demand gap. Second, intensified exclusivity in the critical minerals supply chain outside China has raised import risks, and expectations of tightening supply in the long term underpin the market. Third, industrial rigid demand has been recovering steadily, providing continuous fundamental support. Fourth, upstream producers’ willingness to hold prices firm is solid, with no concentrated sell-offs, limiting downside room for the market. (II) Key Bearish Factors First, the ebb of speculative capital and repeated retail selling disturbed spot prices, with sluggish trading activity. Second, raw material cost transmission was sluggish, squeezing midstream profits, increasing the substitution ratio of scrap, and contracting demand for primary ammonium perrhenate. Third, after completing phased restocking, downstream purchasing willingness was weak in the off-season, making it difficult to spur a market rebound. Fourth, the decoupling of domestic and overseas market trends prevented the bullish benefit of overseas price increases from transmitting to the domestic market. V. Overall Summary of H1 In H1 2026, the rhenium market overall showed features of consolidating at highs, mixed bullish and bearish factors, and weak transactions. The market underwent three stages: price increases, sideways consolidation, and a weak pullback. The core contradiction has always been the two-way balance between rigid upstream supply underpinning prices and weak downstream demand, coupled with capital outflows capping gains. Industry chain profits diverged significantly: the upstream resource segment had stable earnings, while midstream processing enterprises remained under pressure, and the industry accelerated the pace of scrap recovery and recycling. Overall, there was no one-sided trend in H1. The tug-of-war between suppliers and buyers dominated market movements. The structural supply-demand gap supported high-level operation and laid the fundamental foundation for the rhenium market’s consolidating pattern in H2.

SMM Jul. 6 News: Metals Market Update: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market all rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.26%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.84%. SHFE lead ticked higher. SHFE zinc added 0.97%. SHFE tin surged 2.9%. SHFE nickel inched up 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.48%, while the most-traded alumina contract dipped 0.15%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.19%. The most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.48%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.45%. Ferrous metals all advanced. Iron ore, HRC, and rebar each rose within 0.5%. Stainless steel added 0.89%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract increased 0.82%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals all advanced. LME copper gained 0.74%, LME aluminum rose 0.71%, LME lead climbed 1.07%. LME zinc ticked up 0.1%, LME tin surged 3.94%. LME nickel added 0.61%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold advanced 1.27%, and COMEX silver jumped 2.24%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.62%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 0.5%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.2%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.17%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index (Europe) futures contract slid 2.56% to 2,592.5 points. As of 11:45 on Jul. 6, select futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Nickel: On Jul. 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price declined 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel stood at 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the prior day DoD... Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Results in Net Injection of 49.5 Billion Yuan] The PBOC conducted 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. With 157.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing, the day saw a net injection of 49.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s Foreign Visitor Arrivals, Share Hit Record Highs] As of 0:00 on Jul. 6, Baiyun Port station of the Guangzhou General Station of Immigration Inspection reported over 4 million foreign entries and exits at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport this year, up 34% YoY and accounting for over 41% of the airport’s total passenger flow. The growth rate topped the national average by 8 percentage points, with both volume and share reaching record highs. Overall, the port has handled over 10 million inbound and outbound passenger trips, up 19.6% YoY, crossing the 10 million mark 34 days earlier than in 2025. Inbound and outbound flights exceeded 63,000, up 14% YoY. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 100.95. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US Fed holds rates steady in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 23%. For September, the probability of no change is 41.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike 47.6%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 10.5%. Goncalves George, head of US macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said Warsh’s concise style gives the June meeting minutes greater weight than usual and offers a valuable lens into the differing stances among Fed officials. “The minutes will become more important because, so far, we don’t know what the Fed is thinking,” Goncalves George said. “It will be instructive to see how they debate and what they focus on.” He added that some investors have already questioned Warsh’s hands-off approach, and many would like to see greater transparency restored. Many market participants are not accustomed to the reduced flow of information, and there remains a considerable degree of skepticism over how long the Fed can maintain this. For now, we have to read between the lines. In a research note, Wan Michael, senior FX analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode, looking for the next catalyst for the US dollar and US interest rates. Looking ahead, “global markets will seek direction from key data points such as the US ISM services data and Fed minutes later this week, and US CPI next week,” he said. In addition, the market is also closely watching whether Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market last week to curb yen weakness, so this uncertainty risk should not be underestimated as USD/JPY continues to hover near the 162 level. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: As imports surge while export growth stalls, the boost from the mining boom to Australia’s trade appears to be fading, and the country may face its first annual trade deficit since 2016. This year, the goods trade surplus has narrowed sharply as the data center construction boom drives a surge in imports of fuel and equipment, while exports have stagnated. This trend appears set to continue, with the Australian government forecasting that export revenue from key commodities will grow only 3% in the current fiscal year compared with the previous one. The mining investment boom drove a surge in exports of iron ore, natural gas, and other commodities, fueling years of economic expansion and wealth accumulation. A return to deficits, however, could weigh on the Australian dollar and constrain the government’s fiscal space. Economist James McIntyre said, “Commodity price declines are expected to weigh on export revenues. As a result, the trade surpluses and occasional current account surpluses recorded over the past decade may give way to a pattern of deficits.” (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for France and Switzerland in June, the eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the eurozone May PPI monthly rate, the eurozone May retail sales monthly rate, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, among other data, will be released. Additionally, speeches are expected from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.57%. Oil prices were weighed down by OPEC+’s latest decision to raise output. After an online meeting on Sunday, the group said it would increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, analysts at ANZ Research said in a note, “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, members may struggle to utilize this additional capacity due to ongoing risks to vessels.” The analysts noted, “During the weekend, multiple vessels were observed making abrupt course reversals while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman route.” (Jin10 Data App) A statement showed that OPEC+ will raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and allies including Russia, have collectively raised production quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day from April to July. However, because the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker shipments for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, previous increases have largely remained on paper. (Jin10 Data App) According to agency reports, the number of vessels transiting the channel along the Omani coast of the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply on Sunday. A day earlier, multiple vessels sailing out of the strait along that channel abruptly executed sharp course reversals, underscoring Iran’s ongoing tightening of control over this strategic waterway. A product tanker that turned back on Saturday appears to be attempting passage again, having now passed the northernmost tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Earlier, another product tanker transited the same route and openly broadcast its voyage intent, and is now broadcasting its position in the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels have opted for "dark transit" through the strait. A Suezmax crude tanker, which last broadcast its position in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels suddenly turned around while transiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani lanes. Four of them then altered course northward, exiting the strait via the Iranian side. There is no official explanation for the sudden turnaround of these vessels. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that ships can only transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian-designated and -authorized lanes. According to Kpler data, on Saturday a total of 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, but only one openly indicated it would enter the strait along the Omani coastal lanes, compared to 13 on Friday. The above statistics cover only observable vessel movements. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Published：June 30, 2026 Paper Market Volatility vs. Sound Fundamentals Gold and silver prices have recently fallen significantly, but for star investor Eric Sprott, the long-term outlook remains sound. In an interview with Sprott Money, he explained that the recent price declines were primarily due to high volatility in the futures markets and were not a sign of weakening fundamentals. Comparisons with the sharp, historic declines of 1980 and 2008 show that precious metals have always recovered once economic realities have pushed the paper market back into the background. At the end of January, the example of the silver price demonstrated just how strongly the futures market —with its massive short positions held by major commercial banks and sudden margin calls—can distort short-term price movements. Macroeconomic Environment and Demand from Asia Provide Support The mining billionaire is instead focusing on the overall macroeconomic picture. In light of skyrocketing government deficits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central banks caught between fighting inflation and promoting growth, Sprott anticipates a long-term loss of purchasing power for Western currencies. This loss of confidence in the fiat system makes physical gold indispensable as a hard asset. Physical demand from Asia provides an additional boost: While China imports large quantities and keeps its own production within the country, India remains a dominant buyer, according to Sprott, despite regulatory interventions. This is accompanied by central banks increasingly diversifying their reserves into precious metals. Silver: Supply Shortage Meets Technology Boom Silver plays a special role for Eric Sprott, as its rapidly growing industrial significance complements its monetary function. Megatrends such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and the expansion of data centers will drive sustained growth in demand, he explained. Since a large portion of this industrially used silver is permanently consumed and not recycled, the structural supply deficit of recent years continues to worsen. According to Sprott, this leads to a clear conclusion for investors: While futures positions may cause short-term market volatility, the long-term upward trend in gold and silver is sustainably underpinned by the global debt burden, Asian buyers, and massive industrial silver consumption. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-forecast-why-star-investor-eric-sprott-calls-the-price-drop-short-term-noise

Published：June 25, 2026 According to experts at Bank of America (BofA), the recent pullback in the gold market is less a cause for concern and more of a strategic buying opportunity. Although the changed macroeconomic environment is forcing analysts to postpone their extremely bullish $6,000 price target until spring 2027 for the time being, they say it is precisely this correction that now opens up lucrative prospects. The long-term fundamental setup has remained completely intact—and massive valuation discounts have formed, particularly in mining stocks, according to the analysts. Macro Weakness as a Strategic Window of Opportunity The fact that the price of gold has recently slipped below the key $4,000 mark is primarily due to short-term interest rate fears. The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the resulting global energy crisis, are forcing central banks to consider interest rate hikes instead of the hoped-for cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool , the market has almost fully priced in an interest rate hike for December. For strategic investors, however, this very interest-rate-driven period of weakness could open up an attractive window of opportunity. According to major investment banks such as BofA, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, the structural drivers of the gold price remain completely unaffected by the current interest rate debate: the spiraling U.S. budget deficits and the unstoppable trend toward de-dollarization are providing massive support to the market. A recent survey shows just how much potential still exists on the buying side: Nearly 75 percent of central banks want to reduce their dollar holdings, which is likely to inevitably lead to further gold purchases by central banks. At the same time, retail investors are significantly underinvested; gold investments currently account for only about 5.5 percent of global portfolios. Gold Mining Stocks: The Lever of the Current Correction BofA identifies the greatest opportunity in the current market environment in the gold mining stock sector. The correction in the spot market has led to discrepancies here that offer investors an asymmetric risk-reward ratio. A price-to-net asset value model from BofA shows: On average, the producers under observation are pricing in a gold price of just $3,354 per ounce. This means the sector is still trading at a massive 19 percent discount to the already-corrected spot price. This undervaluation is widespread across the entire industry, but the broad diversification also offers scope for targeted stock picking. While Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE: WPM) has an implied gold price of $4,395 in BofA’s calculation, Franco-Nevada (NYSE: FNV) sits at the lower end of the valuation range with an extremely conservative $2,416. Bank of America’s conclusion: Investors who can withstand short-term interest rate volatility will currently find rare entry points in a structurally supported market. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-sell-off-opens-up-new-opportunities-especially-for-mining-stocks

Nickel Salt Prices Remain Weak, Intermediate Product Coefficient Under Short-Term Pressure

The latest update from the World Meteorological Organization shows that the probability of an El Niño event occurring from June to August 2026 is as high as 80%, and it is expected to persist at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Solcast research indicates that during past strong El Niño events (especially July–September), regional differences in global surface horizontal irradiance were dramatically amplified, with maximum deviations reaching around 10%. The regional impacts are markedly divergent: irradiance in Rajasthan, India, could be about 15% above normal, and in eastern Australia about 5% above; meanwhile, key PV installation hubs such as eastern China, California in the US, and the Atacama Desert in South America will experience persistent irradiance deficits, directly weighing on actual power output from plants. This climate shift is becoming a systemic variable for the PV industry in 2026 that cannot be ignored.

SMM June 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals all fell, SHFE copper fell 0.71%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%. SHFE lead fell 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 3.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 2.43%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.79%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.56%. Ferrous metals all fell, iron ore fell 0.94%, rebar fell 0.51%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.57%, stainless steel fell 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 4.53%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all moved lower. LME copper fell 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 1.56%, LME lead fell 0.84%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell nearly 1%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.07%, COMEX silver fell 3.78%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.91%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.85%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures contract fell 2.23% to 3,689 points. As of 11:43 on June 23, some futures market midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 24,585-24,770 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,685-24,860 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,515-24,700 yuan/mt. Morning session market quotes against SMM average prices were at a premium of 10-20 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the contract for now... Macro front China: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and Nine Other Departments on Cultivating and Expanding Consumption in the Automotive Aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on implementing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket, stating that the development of automotive modification should be standardized and orderly. Establish and improve automotive modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the automobile modification market, clarify graded and categorized management of automobile modification, determine a list of automobile modification items, and improve management requirements for vehicle inspection and change registration. Improve the standard system for automobile modification. Study the establishment of an automotive modification sub-technical committee under the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee, sort out a list of standards to be proposed or revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop automotive modification parts and modification technical specifications. The notice proposes supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improving the environment for RV travel and use. Support local governments in optimizing management policies for RV road travel. Simplify the land approval process for RV campsites. Enhance the supporting service level of RV campsites. Leveraging regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a number of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites in areas along scenic routes and in suburban areas, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and replenishment, water and electricity supply, medical rescue, and dining and accommodation. Optimize the setup of RV campsite signage, and release premium RV travel routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, where conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for motorhomes and towable caravans may be set up and management strengthened to better meet the parking demand for RVs. [Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments: Announce 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform] On June 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a notice, announcing 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform and their key reform and innovation directions. For example, Tianjin focuses on automobile modification, classic cars, and auto racing, Shenyang in Liaoning focuses on used car circulation, Yangzhou in Jiangsu focuses on RV camping, Weinan in Shaanxi focuses on retired vehicle recycling, and so on. The notice requires each pilot city to, based on local industrial characteristics, market features, resource endowments, location conditions, functional positioning, and other actual situations, address bottleneck issues such as unreasonable restrictions on automotive distribution and consumption, improve reform and innovation measures, cultivate new scenarios, new formats, and new models of automotive consumption, and drive the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and healthcare. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments synchronously issued a notice on several measures to cultivate and strengthen the automotive aftermarket consumption. (Xinhua News Agency) [Draft Financial Law submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for first review] On June 23, 2026, the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft) was submitted to the 23rd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress for first review. The Financial Law is a fundamental, comprehensive, and overarching law that governs the financial sector in China. It is positioned as the "1" in the financial legal system, playing a guiding, overarching, and standardizing role. Laws in areas such as banking, insurance, and securities constitute the "N," and other financial laws and regulations form the "X." These must align with the basic provisions established by the "1," with equal emphasis on formulation and revision, to specifically regulate financial activities in each field. Together, "1+N+X" build a scientific, complete, and unified financial legal system. The draft Financial Law adheres to the main theme of strengthening regulation, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development, focusing on coordinating development and security, and striving to solve legal difficulties that hinder the high-quality development of finance. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC's reverse repo operation today net injects 75 billion yuan] PBOC today conducted a 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from previous. Today, 449.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.03%, at 101.03. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.3%. Through September, the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged is 26.1%, with a 52.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. (Jinshi Data APP) Citadel Securities said that Fed Chairman Warsh's commitment to reducing inflation has enhanced the Fed's credibility, thereby supporting long-term US Treasury yields and lowering term premiums. Following last week's Fed meeting, trading in the US Treasury market, worth $31 trillion, displayed a characteristic: long-term yields were more stable compared to two-year yields, which are more sensitive to policy. The firm's head of fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah, stated, "A highly credible Fed should benefit long-end rate performance." (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. The bank's economists had previously expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year. The reason for the revision is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in the Fed's communication, signaling a more proactive approach to tackling inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains in the minority: currently, only 19% of market investors expect three hikes, although this proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. In other currencies: After the yen weakened further and reports emerged of an online meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki and US Treasury Secretary Bessent, foreign exchange traders are on high alert for possible intervention. In early trading on Tuesday, the yen was at about 161.57 per dollar, near its lowest level in 40 years. NHK and Kyodo News reported that Katayama and Bessent may have discussed exchange rate issues. The market is concerned that after the Bank of Japan's rate hike at last week's policy meeting, it still has not raised borrowing costs quickly enough to curb inflation, keeping the yen under continuous pressure. Moreover, oil prices boosted by the US-Iran war also weighed additionally on the yen. Yamamoto Takeru, a trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in New York, said: "Japanese authorities may hope to send a signal through the US-Japan talks that they are coordinating actions with the US, while hinting that the threshold for implementing intervention is not high. Although market concerns about intervention have intensified, the fundamental factors for a weaker yen have not changed, and USD/JPY could test the 162 level this week." (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: data to be released today include France's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, Germany's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June services PMI, the UK's June CBI industrial order balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 6, the US preliminary June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the US preliminary June S&P Global services PMI, and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Also worth noting: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivers a speech; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; MSCI releases its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be added to the watch list for developed markets. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic edged lower, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.43%. As the market weighed early progress in peace talks on the Iran war, which included US permission to sell some Iranian crude, oil prices stabilized. The US 60-day license allows Iran to sell some oil and petroleum products. Babin Rebecca, managing director and senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said, "The road to negotiations remains long, but the market may anticipate an oversupply before crude oil oversupply actually arrives, just as it had anticipated supply deficits before a genuine crude oil supply deficit materialized. Oil prices often overshoot." (Jin10 Data APP) Danske Bank forecasts that for the remainder of 2026, Brent crude will average $80 per barrel, and rise to $85 per barrel next year. The bank also said that even if a US-Iran deal is reached, oil prices will not return to the pre-war level of $60-$70 per barrel. The institution said a US-Iran deal would reopen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would take months for Iran's oil production and exports to return to normal. The bank pointed out that the US's continued release of strategic petroleum reserves could affect the near-term supply landscape, and said the US may choose to maintain this policy for political reasons ahead of the November midterm elections. Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►