SMM, August 13: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average Guangdong #1 copper cathode price was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 108,100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories declined for two consecutive days, with fewer arrivals and slightly higher warehouse withdrawals. Today, the price spread between futures contracts widened further from yesterday to nearly 700 yuan/mt. With such a wide spread, downstream consumers purchased cautiously, and suppliers proactively cut prices to sell, causing premiums to keep falling. Even so, actual transactions remained very thin. Today, Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment was 2.21, down 0.03 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.03, down 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, the price spread between futures contracts continued to widen, downstream restocking appetite remained subdued, and spot trades were sluggish.

[SMM East China SHFE Aluminum Spot] In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract moved lower compared with yesterday's center. Buying sentiment in the market improved further, and trading among traders was relatively active. Today, the main trading center for SHFE aluminum spot premiums was between parity and a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the 08 contract, while trades against the 09 contract were done at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices weakened. During the week, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices declined, while manganese sulphate prices remained stable.

As of this Thursday, the SMM average price for battery-grade nickel sulphate declined. Demand side, the market was generally mediocre mid-month. Some downstream enterprises mainly picked up goods under long-term contracts, or still held certain raw material inventories. Sentiment for spot-order stockpiling was weak, and their acceptance of nickel salt prices was low. Supply side, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices remained high. Some enterprises were willing to hold prices firm, but some upstream enterprises with high inventory levels sought to sell and destock. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain focused on destocking overall this month, and prices are expected to be weak overall before month-end. Inventory side, this week the upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 8.1 days; the downstream precursor plant inventory index declined from 11.5 days to 10.7 days; and the integrated enterprise inventory index held at 9.9 days. In terms of buying and selling strength, this week the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor for upstream nickel salt smelters rose from 1.8 to 2.0; the purchasing sentiment factor for downstream precursor plants fell from 2.5 to 2.3; and the sentiment factor for integrated enterprises fell from 2.5 to 2.3. (Historical data can be queried by logging in to the database.)

Construction steel social inventory: According to an SMM survey, total construction steel social inventory posted a slight build this period. As of August 13, 2026, SMM construction steel social inventory stood at 5.7557 million mt, up 50,000 mt WoW, an increase of 0.88%. During the survey period, Typhoon Dolphin struck, bringing heavy rainfall to some regions. Outdoor projects experienced severe waterlogging and construction progress was hindered. Compounded by transportation disruptions, end-use procurement demand declined, and inventory continued to build. Regional social inventory: Inventory performance across regions remained divergent. In east China, overall inventory shifted from decline to increase, mainly because typhoon-related heavy rainfall significantly constrained outdoor construction work and slowed the pace of end-use procurement. In northeast China, new maintenance at an individual blast furnace steel mill reduced supply, driving inventory from increase to decline. Inventory in southwest China also destocked slightly, mainly because the futures market improved somewhat during the survey period, market sentiment recovered in phases, and buying interest strengthened slightly. In addition, some steel mills in the region reduced production and overall material arrivals declined slightly; combined, these factors shifted inventory from increase to decline. Inventory performance in other regions was basically normal.

[Bearishness Persists, Pr-Nd Oxide Remains Weak; Metals Follow Lower with Sluggish Transactions; Magnetic Materials Recover as Work Resumes] Yesterday, affected by fluctuations in futures prices, most market participants maintained a bearish outlook. Downstream metal producers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment and low purchase willingness; some traders continued selling at low prices, leaving market transactions under pressure, and Pr-Nd oxide prices remained on a weak trend. In medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices were relatively stable, with little overall change in the market.

[CPI in Line with Expectations Eases Macro Anxiety; Sustained Destocking Provides Price Support] Based on a comprehensive assessment, on the macro front, US July CPI and core CPI YoY growth rates slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild inflation pullback eased market concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed; short-term upward momentum in US Treasury yields weakened, and macro liquidity pressure eased somewhat, providing support for aluminum prices at this stage. The fundamental supply gap persisted, and aluminum ingot inventories continued destocking. On the supply side outside China, UAE's EGA disclosed the progress of production resumption at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 pots have been restarted, and the pace of production resumption has been faster than earlier market expectations. The supply-tightness premium priced in earlier now faces retracement pressure. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room will be somewhat capped by production resumption expectations.

[Cochilco Again Lowers 2026 Chilean Copper Production Forecast; H2 Recovery Still Has Room to Materialize] Cochilco has recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups and operational constraints in H1. Over the same period, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 7.9% YoY, with Chile’s share of China’s copper concentrate imports falling to 29.3%; the contribution of Chilean supply to the Chinese market weakened temporarily. However, most miners maintained their full-year production guidance, mainly banking on H2 recovery from the switch to higher-grade ore zones, the completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups. Going forward, whether Chilean production rebounds on schedule will continue to affect the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance and the TC trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt, drifted higher early in the session to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then the copper price center shifted straight down, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, while open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in short positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt, immediately touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt early in the session, then the copper price center drifted lower, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, while open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease in long positions.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Solar Cell Prices Continue to Rise, Module Prices Slightly Raised] The current round of solar cell price gains strengthened further, and prices across all sizes continued to climb. The 183 traded range rose to 0.28-0.3 yuan/W; the mainstream 210N range moved up to 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; and the 210R transaction center climbed to 0.281-0.3 yuan/W. The previous disconnect between quoted prices and spot transaction prices eased significantly, and high-priced orders began to close in batches. Short-term cost increases, combined with recovering export orders, kept overall market sentiment strong; however, excessively rapid price increases may gradually exhaust downstream absorption capacity. Going forward, it is necessary to keep tracking end-user module profit margins, cost fluctuations, and details of policy implementation outside China, while guarding against the risk of a slight correction following excessively rapid price increases.