The World Bank notes in its latest Global Economic Prospects report that global economic growth is expected to slow down, weighed down by the impact of the Iran war, specifically with the 2026 growth rate projected to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.5%. The report also warns that if energy supply disruptions intensify, accompanied by significant financial stress, global economic growth in 2026 could slide further to 1.3%.

SMM June 13: Metal market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains with a 2.19% increase, while LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1%—LME copper up 1.02%, LME zinc up 1.63%, LME tin up 1.75%, and SHFE zinc up 1.48%. The remaining metals saw gains within 1%. In addition, alumina's main contract rose 0.86%, and cast aluminum's main contract rose 0.45%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%, while rebar rose 0.44% and hot-rolled coil rose 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Overnight, precious metals rebounded across the board, with COMEX gold up 3.06% and COMEX silver up 6.44%. However, due to significant earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline; COMEX silver fell 1.42% on a weekly basis, marking its fifth straight weekly decline. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 2.3%, and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. Among them, SHFE gold fell 6.79% on a weekly basis, also its fifth consecutive weekly decline; SHFE silver tumbled 10.14% on a weekly basis, also recording a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued a notice stating that, recently, global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy have faced considerable uncertainties. Under the influence of multiple factors, precious metal price fluctuations in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metal-related businesses such as gold accumulation, interest-bearing gold accumulation, precious metal accounts, two-way precious metal accounts, and agency services for personal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, our bank particularly reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your financial status and risk tolerance, reasonably control precious metal positions, and mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, to prevent the risk of capital losses from market fluctuations. As of 8:31 am on June 13, the overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic front: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing rose by 17.48 trillion yuan in the first five months; new loans reached 9.11 trillion yuan; M2 money supply increased 8.6% YoY in May] Preliminary PBOC statistics show that the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, which was 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Of this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, 1.38 trillion yuan less YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy, in yuan terms, increased by 115.3 billion yuan, 211.6 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, 91.8 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, 57 billion yuan less YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, 151.4 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; net corporate bond financing was 1.67 trillion yuan, 757.7 billion yuan more YoY; net government bond financing was 5.67 trillion yuan, 634 billion yuan less YoY; and equity financing by non-financial enterprises on the domestic market was 230.5 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan more YoY. Over the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; corporate (institutional) loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans grew by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans grew by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data shows that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Over the first five months, net cash injection reached 590.7 billion yuan. According to the central bank's official website, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price auction, with a tenor of six months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. As for the US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index gained 0.1% to 99.79, down 0.28% for the week, with markets closely watching the peace talks between the US and Iran. On the 12th, multiple US media reported that a senior US government official said that day that the US has "80% to 85%" confidence in signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran in the coming days. Meanwhile, the US is "confident" that Israel will support this US-Iran MoU. According to reports from CNN, CBS, and others, the official said at a telephone press briefing, "We haven't quite reached the finish line, but we're very close." The official said the specific location and date for the US-Iran MoU signing have yet to be determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua News Agency) On the 12th, Iranian media reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that once Iran and the US complete the final stage of negotiations, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed remotely via electronic means, "which could happen in the coming days." (Xinhua News Agency) In a report, HSBC analysts noted that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below the level implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They noted that as market expectations have recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to possible rate hikes, the dollar's response has been relatively limited. They believe this likely reflects loose US financial conditions and market hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They said the dollar needs a clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at next week's meeting, the dollar “could be in trouble”. (Jinshi Data APP) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but see a more than 50% chance of a rate hike before year-end. On Thursday, after Trump’s comments on a potential deal, market pricing edged down slightly. Other currencies: Turner Chris, an analyst at ING, said that for EUR/USD trend, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may be more important than the ECB’s rate hike decision on Thursday. The ECB has already signaled further rate hikes, and the market is speculating about another hike in July. But he said that since the market has already priced in the ECB’s aggressive tightening cycle and is reluctant to push those expectations higher, the EUR/USD exchange rate has remained below 1.16. Moreover, the market believes the Fed may raise rates later this year. He said that unless the Fed pushes back against these expectations at its meeting on Wednesday, the dollar should stay firm. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Next week, China will release China's May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's May industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY, China's May share of yuan in global payments via SWIFT, China's May total electricity consumption YoY (TBC), China's May total electricity consumption (TBC), and other data; the US will release the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) for the period to June 17, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, US June NAHB housing market index, ADP employment change for the week ended May 30, US May housing starts annualized total, US May building permits total, US May import price index MoM, US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ended June 13, US June Philly Fed manufacturing index, US May Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM, and other data; the UK will release UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May jobless claims change, UK Bank of England interest rate decision for the period to June 18, UK June Gfk consumer confidence index, UK May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, and other data; the Eurozone will release Eurozone April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Eurozone June ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, Eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, and other data; Switzerland will release Switzerland May consumer confidence index, Switzerland May trade balance, Switzerland SNB policy rate for the period to June 18, and other data; Japan will release Japan BoJ target rate for the period to June 16, Japan May core CPI YoY, and other data; Canada will release Canada April wholesale sales MoM, Canada April retail sales MoM, and other data; Germany June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany May PPI MoM, and Australia RBA interest rate decision for the period to June 16 will also be released. In addition, on June 15, China will see 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature, along with 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repos. The National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will hold a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (TBD). China will also open a new round of fuel price adjustment windows. On June 18, the Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections; Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will release its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will release its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England (BOE) will release its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. The Group of Seven (G7) Summit opens and will run until June 17. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell, with WTI down 3.9% and Brent down 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to heat up, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also fell, with WTI down 6.9% and Brent down 6.76%. In early US stock trading, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the Islamabad memorandum of understanding was "closer than ever" to being reached, causing oil prices to tumble and US stock indices to extend their intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the two sides had now reached an understanding on most issues, and that Iran was internally finalizing the text of the memorandum of understanding. During the US midday, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said "the final agreed text of the peace agreement has been completed," and that the two countries were moving forward with implementing the next steps. Oil prices continued their decline. During US trading, stocks briefly dipped after Trump criticized Iran for leaking the terms of the deal, before Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE had reportedly agreed to unlock large-scale funds for Iran, with an initial tranche of roughly $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street Insights) US Secretary of Energy Wright stated that about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel currently transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, roughly half the amount of cargo stranded at the onset of the Iran conflict. Wright said that currently no Iranian crude oil can be shipped out through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products to be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transport along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright stated that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and that proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is not currently exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Due to the most severe supply disruption on record caused by the Iran conflict, US emergency reserve crude oil exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to markets outside China so far this year. This volume has already exceeded the previous high set four years ago. Although US emergency reserve crude oil exports are not uncommon, the large scale of this year's shipments shows that with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to tide them over. About one in every three barrels of crude oil flowing out of the emergency stockpile is exported. The volume heading overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration is still releasing the full 172 million barrels of crude oil it committed to. This is part of a broader effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help cushion the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wall Street CN)

SMM, June 12: This week, prices across the cobalt products complex continued their downward trend. Refined cobalt fell by 16,500 yuan/mt in a single week, while in the cobalt salt segment, spot quotes declined to varying degrees across the board except for cobalt sulphate, which held stable temporarily. Weak downstream demand was a key factor behind the relentless slide in prices for products along the cobalt industry chain... SMM has compiled this week's price changes for cobalt products as follows: : SMM spot price data showed that refined cobalt spot quotes moved lower this week. As of June 12, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 385,000-412,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 398,500 yuan/mt, down 16,500 yuan/mt from 415,000 yuan/mt on June 5, a decline of 3.98%. According to SMM, the price decline this week was driven by two main factors: first, during mid-week, ex-China price reporting platforms slashed the low-end price for cobalt intermediate products, weakening market sentiment and dragging down refined cobalt prices; second, this triggered forced stop-loss liquidation by some funds, further accelerating the magnitude of the pullback. From a supply-demand perspective, on the supply side, EXW prices from mainstream smelters held at 422,000 yuan/mt. After the rapid drop in refined cobalt prices, most traders suspended quoting, with only a small number of hedging traders selling limited cargoes at a slight premium to futures. On the demand side, the persistent downtrend suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with alloy and magnetic material enterprises mostly choosing to hold off on purchases and stay on the sidelines, in a "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality. In the short term, the market is likely to remain in a volatile state under pressure; a stabilization in refined cobalt prices still depends on a return to stability in other cobalt products, particularly cobalt salts. For the raw material cobalt intermediate product, SMM spot price data showed that spot quotes for cobalt intermediate products edged down $0.1/lb this week to $24.9-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.2/lb, down 0.4% from June 5. On the supply side, quotes from mainstream miners and traders remained in the $25.5-26/lb range. Small volumes of lower-quality material changed hands at sub-$25/lb levels during the week, but the impact on mainstream prices was relatively limited given the significant quality discount and limited trading volume. In terms of shipments, the approval of Q1 2026 quotas continued to progress slowly due to complicated procedures. Coupled with tight local logistics in the DRC and the lower priority assigned to cobalt raw material shipments, the arrival of bulk cargoes at ports was further delayed, with current estimates pointing to a mass port arrival around August . In the short term, demand-side support remained weak, and prices may mainly move sideways. For the market to stabilize and strengthen going forward, it still depends on downstream demand recovery and the restoration of cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salt market ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices remained stable this week. As of June 12, cobalt sulphate spot quotes held steady at 88,000-92,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 90,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from June 5. In the spot market, according to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market atmosphere was sluggish this week, with the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continuing and prices staying generally stable. On the supply side, mainstream smelters continued to hold prices firm, with the quotation range maintained at 88,000-92,000 yuan/mt. Some recycling smelters and traders, affected by cash flow pressures, lowered offers on small volumes of low-priced cargoes to 84,000-85,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, the continued gradual price decline suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with some enterprises' target prices at only 81,000-82,000 yuan/mt, a large gap from sellers' offers that made actual transactions difficult. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain in the doldrums, with market stabilization and recovery still awaiting the substantial release of concentrated downstream restocking demand. market: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices stabilized this week after falling 100 yuan/mt on June 11. As of June 12, cobalt chloride spot quotes ranged from 110,000 to 115,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 112,500 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.09% from June 5. In the spot market, according to SMM, the cobalt chloride market was overall sluggish this week. On the supply side, as the mid-year period approached, some enterprises continued to offer discounts to sell in response to performance and cash flow pressures, but downstream purchasing capacity was limited, and price cuts did not result in substantial volume increases. The market remained trapped in a passive volume discount situation. Top-tier players maintained their stance of holding prices firm, unwilling to sell at low prices, which provided bottom support for prices. On the demand side, end-user orders were weak, overall downstream stockpiling motivation was insufficient, and purchases remained wait-and-see. Overall, June cobalt chloride prices continued on a gradual weakening trend, with further downside in the short term. market: According to SMM spot quotes, the Co3O4 spot price fell by 1,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day of this week, to a range of 341,000-350,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 345,500 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.43% from 347,000 yuan/mt on June 5. Meanwhile, the Co3O4 spot market remained sluggish. From the supply-demand perspective, on the supply side, enterprises generally struggled to hold their offers, continuously selling at lower prices. However, driven by a mentality of “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn,” successive price cuts intensified downstream wait-and-see sentiment, further suppressing purchase willingness. On the demand side, LCO producers still focused on customer-supplied materials and long-term contract deliveries, while spot demand continued to shrink, and the weak end-user market had begun to slow cargo pick-up under long-term contracts. In the short term, a market turnaround is unlikely, and against the backdrop of loosening cost support and inelastic demand, SMM expects the Co3O4 price center to continue shifting downward. In news, on corporate developments, according to Webstock Inc., on Thursday, June 11, Madagascar’s Ambatovy Mining announced that it had restarted production following a cyclone disaster in February and plans to produce 2,500 mt of nickel in June. Ambatovy added that cobalt production this month is expected to be around 250 mt. It is reported that the Ambatovy mine produces nickel briquettes and cobalt briquettes. In 2025, the mine’s nickel production was approximately 29,000 mt, and cobalt production about 2,700 mt. Tengyuan Cobalt, when responding to investor inquiries in early June, mentioned that as of the end of Q1 2026, the company already had 60,000 mt of copper product capacity and 31,500 mt in metal content of cobalt product capacity. GEM, during an investor survey on June 10, was asked “whether there is any quality difference between critical metals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium extracted through the recycling system and those from virgin ore.” In response, GEM stated that after deep purification, the purity and performance indicators of critical metals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium are fully consistent with the requirements of battery material production, and there is no quality difference. At the same time, the metal enrichment degree (grade) in “urban mines” such as power batteries is usually higher than that in natural mines, offering significant advantages in resource value and utilization efficiency. It is worth noting that at the , SMM Vice President Wang Cong mentioned when discussing cobalt resources that for the past several years, the DRC had always been the core supplier of global cobalt resources, but since last year's policy adjustments, Indonesia's share of cobalt production has increased significantly. Looking ahead over the next decade, the market share of cobalt contained in Indonesian MHP is expected to continue expanding, and the global cobalt supply landscape is evolving from a single-center structure centered on the DRC to a dual-center structure with both the DRC and Indonesia.

Philippine Market: Port inventories continued to accumulate, high freight costs coupled with smelters pushing for lower prices, ore prices faced increasing downside risks This week, CIF China quotes for Philippine nickel ore were generally flat WoW, with no significant loosening or increases across various grades. Specific quotes were: CIF China: Ni 1.3% at $49–52/wmt, 1.4% at $57–60/wmt, 1.5% at $65–67/wmt; CIF Indonesia: 1.3% at approximately $48–50/wmt, 1.4% at approximately $56–58/wmt. Supply and Weather As of June 12, Philippine nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports totaled approximately 5.77 million wmt, equivalent to around 45,300 mt in nickel metal content, up WoW as supply remained ample. Weather conditions at mining areas were relatively manageable, with no major typhoons or heavy rainfall disrupting supply chains recently. However, spot freight rates stayed high, providing minimal support for miners' FOB prices, intensifying cost pressure on miners' shipments. Some mines opted to hold off on shipments, awaiting next week's new round of bidding results before making decisions. Demand and Inventory Demand side, smelters' desire to bargain down prices remained strong, continuing to pressure miners with ample inventories, while the buyer-dominant landscape persisted. Smelters in both China and Indonesia held inventories that fluctuated at highs, with weak short-term restocking willingness and sluggish trading in the market. Considering the continued accumulation of port inventories, high freight costs squeezing miner margins, coordinated price pushing by smelters, and rising wait-and-see sentiment among miners, ore prices could edge down further in the coming weeks. Indonesian Market: Smelters' High Inventories Continued to Weigh on Prices, Premiums Showed a Narrowing Trend The HMA was unchanged at $18,799.29/mt. Theoretical HPM prices were: Ni 1.6% at approximately $70.75/wmt, 1.2% at approximately $49.84/wmt. The delivery-to-factory price for 1.6% ore was $73.8–78.8/wmt, with premiums at +3 to +8 dollars, flat WoW and significantly narrower than earlier highs. Looking ahead, with ore supply continuing to be ample and smelters' willingness to bargain down prices increasing, premiums are expected to have room to decline further. Indonesia's local ore supply was relatively abundant, with some mines taking advantage of weather windows to maximize production. According to BMKG: Sulawesi (Morowali Utara) experienced relatively dry weather with calm seas and smooth shipping; East Halmahera saw persistent rainfall with wave heights of 1.4–2.0 m; Obi had light rain with wave heights of 1.3–1.6 m, with shipment efficiency affected in both areas. This week, the saprolite ore market saw ample cargo availability and relatively active trading volumes. However, with inventories at many smelters staying at sufficient levels, the desire to push for lower prices strengthened noticeably. In some industrial parks, unloading vehicle queues appeared this week, directly reflecting the market reality of loose ore supply and persistently high delivery-to-factory volumes. Traded grades were concentrated at 1.45–1.50% Ni, while high-grade ore (≥1.6%) remained scarce. In addition, spot limonite ore was priced at approximately $26–34/wmt, with the price range widening. The market exhibited some divergence, with select transactions at lower prices and a few at higher levels, as the overall center shifted slightly lower WoW, mainly dragged down by high freight costs. The discount to the theoretical HPM price remained deep and detached. Sulphuric acid supply stayed relatively tight, HPAL operating rates were low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore remained under pressure. Policy Developments Newly approved RKAB for nickel ore were relatively rare this week, with the market widely expecting more approvals to be released in July. Meanwhile, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the government would implement an "orderly and flexible" policy for 2026 mineral and coal RKAB, where production quota adjustments would be linked to global commodity price trends and domestic industrial demand—moderately expanding production when prices rise and tightening promptly when prices are under pressure to maintain supply-demand balance. This statement reserved policy space for within-year quota revisions, warranting ongoing market attention to the release periods of subsequent official documents. The DSI takeover mechanism for ferroalloy exports entered a transition period on June 1, with NPI (HS 7202.60.00) highly likely to be included; Harita’s PT Trimegah had already completed the first DSI single-window export declaration, with smooth operations. The government was simultaneously pushing forward a strict crackdown on under-invoiced contracts, with relevant departments set to consult with industry associations to close loopholes.

[SHFE Zinc Records a Bullish Candlestick, Expected to Hover at Highs] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened at 24,190 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated above the daily average line, reaching a high of 24,445 yuan/mt during this period. Subsequently, bulls reduced their positions, and SHFE zinc edged down to test a low of 24,070 yuan/mt. Near the close, SHFE zinc edged up to recoup some losses, finally closing up at 24,360 yuan/mt, up 195 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.81%. Trading volume fell to 122,000 lots, and open interest declined by 4,821 lots to 75,934 lots.....

This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......

This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price edged lower, and overall trading volume declined. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened again this week, as the downstream sector entered the off-season, with high temperatures and rainfall constraining project starts. Speculative demand retreated, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and actual procurement volumes gradually declined. Inventory side, this week SMM’s nationwide 86-warehouse (large sample) HRC social inventory stood at 4.279 million mt, down 72,900 mt or 1.68% WoW. By region, inventory in the Northeast and South China markets built up WoW, while East China, North China, and Central China markets saw destocking WoW. Inventory destocking provided support to HRC prices. Cost side, the average iron ore price edged lower, and the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, slightly strengthening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to increase, but as the off-season effect deepens, the pace of HRC destocking may narrow. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to move sideways. Overall, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,340-3,410 range next week.

According to preliminary central bank statistics, the cumulative increase in total social financing (TSF) in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan from the same period last year. Of which, new renminbi loans to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi increased by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a further YoY decrease of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a further YoY decrease of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing of government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises amounted to 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 694.2 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; enterprise sector loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data show that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance was 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. In the first five months, net cash injection was 590.7 billion yuan. Financial Statistics Report for May 2026 I. Outstanding Total Social Financing (TSF) Stock Increased by 7.7% YoY Preliminary statistics show that at end-May 2026, outstanding TSF stood at 458.81 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. Of which, outstanding renminbi loans to the real economy were 277.4 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY; outstanding foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi were 1.14 trillion yuan, down 4.3% YoY; outstanding entrusted loans were 11.22 trillion yuan, unchanged YoY; outstanding trust loans were 4.67 trillion yuan, up 7.1% YoY; outstanding undiscounted bankers' acceptances were 2.13 trillion yuan, down 6.2% YoY; outstanding corporate bonds were 35.69 trillion yuan, up 8.4% YoY; outstanding government bonds were 100.6 trillion yuan, up 15.1% YoY; outstanding domestic equity of non-financial enterprises stood at 12.43 trillion yuan, up 4.7% YoY. In terms of structure, at end-May, outstanding renminbi loans to the real economy accounted for 60.5% of outstanding TSF, down 1.2 percentage points YoY; foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi accounted for 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY; entrusted loans accounted for 2.4%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; trust loans accounted for 1%, unchanged YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances accounted for 0.5%, unchanged YoY; corporate bonds accounted for 7.8%, up 0.1 percentage points YoY; government bonds accounted for 21.9%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY; domestic equity of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY. II. In the first five months, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was 17.48 trillion yuan Preliminary statistics show that in the first five months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was 17.48 trillion yuan, representing a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.38 trillion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy converted into RMB increased by 115.3 billion yuan, an increase of 211.6 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, with the decline widening by 91.8 billion yuan YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 57 billion yuan YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, with the decline widening by 151.4 billion yuan YoY; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 757.7 billion yuan YoY; net financing of government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a decrease of 634 billion yuan YoY; domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises amounted to 230.5 billion yuan, an increase of 79.9 billion yuan YoY. III. Broad money (M2) increased by 8.6% At the end of May, broad money (M2) outstanding was 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) outstanding was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) outstanding was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. In the first five months, net cash injection amounted to 590.7 billion yuan. IV. RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan in the first five months At the end of May, outstanding deposits in domestic and foreign currencies reached 352.38 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. At month-end, RMB deposit outstanding was 344.45 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan in the first five months. Specifically, household deposits rose by 5.63 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises by 1.26 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits by 1.91 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions by 5.64 trillion yuan. At the end of May, foreign currency deposit outstanding was $1.16 trillion, up 17.5% YoY. In the first five months, foreign currency deposits rose by $103.2 billion. V. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months At the end of May, outstanding loans in domestic and foreign currencies stood at 284.79 trillion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. At month-end, RMB loan outstanding was 281.02 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan while medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, including a 3.77 trillion yuan rise in short-term loans, a 4.99 trillion yuan increase in medium and long-term loans, and a 699.9 billion yuan expansion in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions declined by 279.7 billion yuan. At the end of May, the outstanding foreign currency loan balance stood at $553.2 billion, up 2.6% YoY. Foreign currency loans increased by $8.2 billion in the first five months. VI. In May, the monthly weighted average interest rate for interbank lending in the interbank RMB market was 1.31%, and the monthly weighted average rate for pledged repo was 1.33%. In May, total trading volume in the interbank RMB market, comprising lending, cash bonds, and repos, reached 180.45 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 9.5 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. Specifically, the daily average interbank lending volume grew 18.5% YoY, cash bond trading rose 4.7% YoY, and pledged repo trading increased 8% YoY. In May, the weighted average interbank lending rate was 1.31%, up 0.02 percentage points MoM but down 0.24 percentage points YoY; the weighted average pledged repo rate was 1.33%, up 0.02 percentage points MoM but down 0.23 percentage points YoY. VII. In May, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account amounted to 1.67 trillion yuan, and under direct investment, it was 0.58 trillion yuan. In May, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account totaled 1.67 trillion yuan, of which goods trade, services trade, and other current account items were 1.28 trillion yuan and 0.39 trillion yuan, respectively; cross-border RMB settlement under direct investment totaled 0.58 trillion yuan, consisting of 0.22 trillion yuan in outward direct investment and 0.36 trillion yuan in foreign direct investment. Recommended Reading: ] Latest financial data released: M2 and outstanding aggregate financing at end-February grew 8.7% and 9.0% YoY respectively. See how authoritative experts interpret this! ] Aggregate financing and new RMB loans hit second-highest level for the same period in history in the first two months; February M2 up 8.7% YoY ] In January 2024, new aggregate financing was 6.5 trillion yuan, new loans were 4.92 trillion yuan, and M2 grew 8.7% YoY ] PBOC: December aggregate financing increment was 1.94 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.17 trillion yuan, M2 up 9.7% YoY ] PBOC: November aggregate financing increment was 2.45 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.09 trillion yuan, M2 up 10% YoY ] November financial data released: The volume of aggregate financing continued to grow more YoY, and credit support for the real economy remained solid ] Will trillion-yuan government bonds "prop up" October money and credit data? Market expects overall strong aggregate financing but weak credit; RRR cut expectations still building ] PBOC: October aggregate financing increment was 1.85 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 738.4 billion yuan, M2 up 10.3% YoY ] PBOC: September aggregate financing increment was 4.12 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.31 trillion yuan, M2 up 10.3% YoY ] PBOC makes heavy-hitting remarks! Talking about China-US interest rate differentials, September financial data, mortgage rates on existing home loans... ] General Administration of Customs: China's imports and exports showed positive trends in the first three quarters; September hit a new single-month high for the year ] PPI and CPI data improved for three consecutive months; experts say price improvement further confirmed, expect the YoY improvement in PPI to continue ] NBS explains: September CPI was stable, PPI YoY decline narrowed for three consecutive months, both rose MoM ] September mobile phone export value doubled MoM; automobile export YoY growth continued to lead ] PBOC: August aggregate financing increment was 3.12 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.36 trillion yuan, M2 up 10.6% YoY ] PBOC: Act when it's time to act, resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting! USD/CNH plunged ] PBOC: August aggregate financing scale was 528.2 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 345.9 billion yuan, M2 up 10.7% YoY ] PBOC: June aggregate financing and new RMB loans far exceeded expectations, M2 up 11.3% YoY ] PBOC: May aggregate financing increment was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month ] PBOC: May RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, with the previous figure at 718.8 billion yuan ] PBOC: May RMB deposits increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, 1.58 trillion yuan less than the same period last year ] PBOC: April aggregate financing increment was 1.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 718.8 billion yuan, M2 up 12.4% YoY ] PBOC: Q1 RMB deposits increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan

Next week, the Chinese market will be closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. SHFE and other exchanges will not operate night sessions on Thursday evening and will be closed all day on Friday. On the macro data front, China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, and the US May retail sales month-on-month rate are about to be released. Additionally, a key event will be the first policy meeting of the new US Fed chair since taking office. The market expects the June interest rate to remain unchanged, with greater focus on when the US Fed will start raising rates. On the LME lead side, the Middle East conflict recently reversed again, with overseas bulls withdrawing and bears adding positions. LME lead fell below all moving averages, reaching a new low in nearly one and a half months. Meanwhile, tightness in spot cargo in markets outside China persists. LME saw a backwardation structure again, with LME Cash-3M quoted at $4.97/mt. Next week, attention will be on the impact of the US Fed meeting on the US dollar index. Lead prices are expected to continue trading in the doldrums, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,915-1,975/mt. On the SHFE lead side, next Monday is the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2606 contract. Suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses will boost expectations of rising visible inventory, especially as SHFE lead bears add positions. Open interest in the most-traded contract has reached as high as 85,000 lots, putting lead prices under pressure. Notably, in-factory inventory at primary lead enterprises has declined, and secondary lead smelters are suffering severe losses. Fundamentals provide strong support, with the spread between futures and spot prices narrowing rapidly and a premium cannot be ruled out. Downside risk to lead prices is expected to persist, but there is a chance to dip and rebound. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,850-16,300 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,900-16,150 yuan/mt. Demand side, production at lead-acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. After the lead price decline, downstream enterprises buy the dip as needed. Also, considering the potential for mid-year account closing and stocktaking in late June, some downstream players purchase in advance. Supply side, production at primary and secondary lead enterprises both increased and decreased. Supply differences are expected to be relatively small. In-factory inventories at both have fallen, reducing smelters' pressure to sell. Especially as secondary lead smelters suffer severe losses, their willingness to sell is low. Spot lead is expected to maintain small premiums (over SMM #1 lead) on shipments. If SHFE lead falls further, the possibility of spot prices exceeding futures cannot be ruled out.

SMM, June 12 – This week, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, and secondary refined lead premiums and discounts continuously changed with futures. At the start of the week, lead prices declined, with quotations ranging from a discount of 25 yuan/mt to a premium of 25 yuan/mt, and trading was sluggish. Mid-week, the market was under pressure, smelters held prices firm, and quotations rose to parity to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, forming an inversion with primary lead, with only sporadic just-in-time procurement. In the latter half of the week, futures slightly recovered, and quotations pulled back to parity to a premium of 25 yuan/mt. Downstream maintained just-in-time procurement as the primary approach throughout, and overall trading was weak. This week, the SMM #1 lead ingot spot price continued to decline, while scrap battery raw material prices remained firm, further intensifying smelters' loss pressure. As of June 12, large smelters incurred a loss of 510 yuan/mt, and small and medium-sized smelters incurred a loss of 710 yuan/mt. Affected by price cuts at the recycling end, stores notably held back from selling, scrap battery circulating supplies tightened, and smelters' raw material inventory stayed low. Scrap battery purchase prices are expected to remain strong next week, smelting enterprises' profits will continue to be under pressure, and the loss trend is unlikely to reverse. Meanwhile, next week, smelters will see both production resumptions and production cuts/suspensions, resulting in a mix of bullish and bearish factors on the secondary refined lead supply side, and spot premiums are expected to stay at current levels.