Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,979.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, and then after entering the European session, it fell first before recovering. During the session, it hit a low of $1,973/mt and a high of $1,987/mt, before giving back some gains near the close, eventually settling at $1,985/mt, up 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,505 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 16,520 yuan/mt in early trading as bears reduced positions. However, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday-related downstream shutdown plans, the lack of lead ingot consumption capped gains, and SHFE lead moved sideways in a narrow range before closing at 16,470 yuan/mt, unchanged. On the macro front: The US Fed removed its bias toward cutting interest rates, and the dot plot showed nine officials projected rate hikes this year. Inventory at the largest US oil storage hub plummeted to critically low levels. US retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, above the market expectation of 0.5%. The People's Bank of China established a repo facility for overseas central bank-type institutions. The PBOC also optimized the mechanism for temporary overnight reverse repo and repo operations in the open market. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Implementing the Employment-First Strategy." Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rose sharply, and suppliers sold cargoes along with the rally, but there was considerable divergence in selling interest, with some widening their discounts. Mainstream production area electrolytic lead quotations ranged from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In secondary lead, smelter losses narrowed, but more smelters underwent maintenance, so market supplies were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few deals negotiated at discounts of 100 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises' risk-off sentiment subsided, but they remained cautious in purchasing high-priced lead, and most held a wait-and-see stance. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, downstream enterprises planned to shut down, further dampening trading activity. Inventory: On June 18, LME lead inventory fell by 25 mt to 303,650 mt. As of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, combined with mid-year account closing effects that led some enterprises to suspend shipments or payments, wait-and-see sentiment was heavy and some transactions were halted. With more smelters undergoing maintenance on the supply side and the delivery factor already materialized, expectations for post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup are limited. Attention should be paid to the pace of downstream restarts after the holiday and its impact on lead price movements.

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: Overnight, metals generally rose across both domestic and overseas markets, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down about 0.09%. LME tin and SHFE tin both rose over 2%, with LME tin up 2.63% and SHFE tin up 2.46%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all rose over 1% (LME copper +1.97%, LME aluminum +1.59%, LME zinc +1.09%, LME nickel +1.42%, SHFE copper +1.12%, SHFE nickel +1.26%). The remaining metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract down 0.69% and the foundry aluminum front-month contract up 0.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose, with stainless steel leading the gains at +1.52%, and iron ore up 0.51%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw minor fluctuations. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 2.19% and coke rose 0.84%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.7% and COMEX silver dropped 0.96%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.28% and SHFE silver declined 0.73%. As of 6:43 AM on June 2, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial)] On June 1, the NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial). It mentioned that the development and reform commissions, energy bureaus, ecological environment departments, statistics bureaus, and data management departments of all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as State Grid Corporation of China, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Power (Group) Co., Ltd., relevant power generation enterprises, Beijing and Guangzhou Power Exchange Centers, China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, and China Electricity Council: To implement the major decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and to promote the improvement of the carbon emission statistical accounting system, we have formulated the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial), which are hereby issued to you. Please carry out relevant work accordingly. These guidelines shall be implemented on a trial basis from the date of issuance and shall be used for accounting of non-fossil energy power consumption for 2026 and subsequent years. If there are any issues or suggestions during the trial period, please provide timely feedback to the NDRC and the National Energy Administration. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng chaired a standing meeting of the municipal government on June 1. The meeting approved in principle the Shanghai Plan for Accelerating New-Type Industrialisation and Building a Modern Industrial System under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and noted the need to develop and strengthen a number of emerging pillar industries and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries. The meeting emphasized the need to adhere to innovation-driven development and forge competitive advantages in industry, accelerate breakthroughs in new technologies, R&D and application of new products, and cultivation and opening of new scenarios, support the efficient transformation and industrialisation of scientific and technological achievements, and turn more "flowers of technology" into "fruits of industry." The CPC Chengdu Municipal Committee and the Chengdu Municipal People's Government issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Building of a National Advanced Manufacturing Base. The opinions proposed forward-looking deployment of future industries, accelerating the layout of new tracks including nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, quantum technology, intelligent sensing, embodied AI, sixth-generation mobile communications, biomanufacturing, cell and gene therapy, flying cars, and frontier new materials. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.19. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that, driven by growth in new orders and production, the US May ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54, hitting a four-year high. US manufacturing has sent expansion signals for five consecutive months, indicating that manufacturing is regaining vitality amid a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, more favourable tax policy, and reduced trade policy uncertainty. Persistent cost pressure may mean US consumers will face higher prices, as the US Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.8% YoY in April. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Ozan Tarman, Vice Chairman of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, said the US Fed's next move will not be a rate hike. Tarman said the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will try to "convince his colleagues to stay put." "Everyone is excitedly talking about how he might completely change his stance and even convince Trump that a significant rate hike is possible this year — that seems a bit excessive to me." "The best approach is to wait and see, and let the political dynamics in the US, the Strait of Hormuz, and even the UK play out on their own," Tarman said. Tarman noted that a European Central Bank rate hike in June appears to be a foregone conclusion, but whether Lagarde will raise rates in September will depend on the progress of Middle East peace negotiations. (Bloomberg) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Inc., said that AI infrastructure construction will push up inflation in the early stages, which will prevent new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh from cutting interest rates as quickly as he had previously hinted. "We may have to wait a while longer, because in the early stages, the AI boom will certainly push up inflation," he said. From the perspective of semiconductor prices, energy prices, and labour costs, the risk of price pressure is "very clear." (Bloomberg TV) Macro: Today, the US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, Eurozone May CPI annual rate preliminary reading, and Eurozone May CPI monthly rate preliminary reading will be released. In addition, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend a House of Lords hearing. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 5.85% and Brent up 4.53%, driven by the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and blockade risks. Earlier, Iranian media reported that Iran would suspend communication with the US through intermediaries and planned to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. This morning, US President Trump said he expected to reach an agreement with Iran "within the next week," extending the current ceasefire arrangement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the negotiations were progressing well and expressed optimism about reaching a deal. (CCTV) (Wallstreetcn APP) According to US sources, the Trump administration continued to release large volumes from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease the energy supply crisis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 8 million barrels of crude oil last week, following declines of 9.1 million barrels and a record 9.9 million barrels in the two preceding weeks. As of now, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory has fallen to 357.1 million barrels, the lowest level since January 2024. (Wallstreetcn) Three sources said OPEC+ producers will most likely agree at their meeting on Sunday to further increase crude oil production quotas in July. However, the Iran war has so far caused some countries to fall short of their previous production increase targets. A further increase in production quotas would indicate that the organisation is gradually resuming normal operations, despite disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected withdrawal of the UAE in May. According to sources, OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in July, the same as the increase agreed for June, which had been reduced from 206,000 barrels per day after taking into account the UAE's withdrawal. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM May 20 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals on domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.21% increase, while LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all rose less than 1%. LME tin fell 2.06%, LME copper 1.2%, SHFE tin dropped 1.35%, and other metals declined less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.11%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.24%. Overnight ferrous metals collectively rose. Stainless steel gained 0.38%, iron ore rose 0.25%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose around 0.03%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.04% and coke gained 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.59%, and COMEX silver dropped 4.49%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.11% to 989.5 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver dropped 3.44%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:47 AM on May 20: Macro Front On the evening of May 19, Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin paid a state visit to China from May 19 to 20. (CCTV News) China: [National Energy Administration: Total Electricity Consumption in April 2026 Up 6.0% YoY] On May 19, the National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for April. In April, total electricity consumption reached 820.5 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 11.2 billion kWh, up 2.0% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 558.4 billion kWh, up 5.3% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 553.8 billion kWh, up 5.5% YoY, and high-tech equipment manufacturing consumed 105 billion kWh, up 10.1% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 151.7 billion kWh, up 8.9% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 13.7 billion and 8.2 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 61.9% and 42.8%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 99.2 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. (National Energy Administration) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.31. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate given persistently elevated price pressures, and is exerting downward pressure on inflation. However, it is "healthy" for investors to begin considering scenarios where rate hikes may be needed. "Monetary policy is mildly restrictive, and that restrictiveness is helping to contain the impact of tariffs and price increases triggered by the Middle East conflict. Taking all of these... factors into account, I believe the current monetary policy stance is appropriate," Paulson said in remarks prepared for an Atlanta Fed conference. (Wallstreetcn) Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voting member): She is inclined to keep rates steady and has set sustained progress on disinflation as a precondition for cutting interest rates. The labour market remains stable, but inflation is still too high. An interest rate cut will only become appropriate when sustained progress on reducing inflation is observed. The US Fed's future policy path largely depends on how long the war's disruption to oil and other commodity supplies persists. If the conflict is resolved quickly, inflation and inflation risks could dissipate relatively rapidly. (Wallstreetcn) A Huatai Securities research report stated that it is indeed difficult for the US Fed to cut interest rates again in H2 this year, and based on current trends, rate hikes may be necessary next year. Huatai Securities' latest base case assumption is that the US Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged this year, but guidance will be more hawkish than before. The neutral forecast for next year is two rate hikes, above current market expectations, primarily based on a relatively optimistic base case assumption for nominal growth. However, this forecast still faces considerable uncertainties including US economic fundamentals, geopolitical changes, and global growth. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 84.4%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 14.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, UK April CPI MoM, UK April Retail Price Index MoM, Germany April PPI MoM, Eurozone April CPI YoY final, and Eurozone April CPI MoM final. In addition, SpaceX's Starship V3 will attempt its maiden flight, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will deliver a speech, and Fed Governor Barr will also speak. Crude oil: As of overnight close, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 1.05%. Earlier, US Vice President Vance said significant progress had been made in US-Iran negotiations, somewhat easing market concerns about crude oil supply. Notably, the NYMEX WTI crude oil June futures contract, affected by contract rollover, completed its last pit trading at 2:30 AM on May 20 and last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to exchange expiration and rollover announcements to manage risk. Additionally, some trading platforms typically expire WTI contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please take note. Citigroup maintained its consistent view that the current crude oil market clearly underestimates the duration of geopolitical risks and potential tail risks. Brent crude prices are expected to surge to $120/barrel in the near term. Under a bullish scenario (with multiple pathways that could trigger it), Brent crude could reach as high as $150/barrel. Citi's forecast for 2026 global crude oil demand growth is -600,000 bpd (-0.6 mb/d), with YoY declines in Q2, Q3, and Q4 estimated at -2.4 million bpd, -800,000 bpd, and -300,000 bpd respectively. (Wallstreetcn) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory was -9.11 million barrels, compared with -2.188 million barrels the previous week. Last week, API Cushing crude oil inventory was -1.428 million barrels (previous: -1.755 million barrels). Last week, API gasoline inventory was -5.795 million barrels (previous: +502,000 barrels), and distillate inventory was -1.047 million barrels (previous: -319,000 barrels). (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported, citing a senior NATO official, that NATO is discussing the possibility of assisting commercial vessels through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if it remains closed by early July. According to a diplomat from a NATO member state, the proposal has received support from several NATO members but has not yet achieved the unanimous consent required for approval. A coalition led by France and the UK is developing a plan to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as frontline hostilities ease. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 7 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE tin continued its strong momentum from the previous day's session, ultimately closing up 5.01%. SHFE nickel fell 2.68%. LME tin led the gains with a remarkable 9.01% increase, LME copper rose 2.22%, and LME zinc gained 1.52%. LME aluminum fell 1.02%, LME nickel dropped 2.22%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.13%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 1.03%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 1.15%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.26%, and rebar gained 0.68%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.92%, and coke dropped 0.64%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.95%, and COMEX silver gained 5.77%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.98%, and SHFE silver gained 2.8%. As of 6:45 AM on May 7, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China] On May 6, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks concerning China. In response, Lin Jian stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) People's Bank of China: The weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2026 was 3.06% . (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.49 to 98.02. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly resembles an inflationary shock to the economy. While the impact on employment and economic growth is not yet apparent, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases are intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflationary' shock" — the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation, forcing the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk — Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is simply an inflationary shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." (Jin10 Data APP) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against instinctively cutting interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as such a phenomenon can sometimes push up inflation. In prepared remarks released ahead of a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday local time, Goolsbee said the US Fed's response to faster productivity growth "depends in large part on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is expected to happen in the future." He said in the first scenario, inflation could be suppressed, allowing for interest rate cuts. In the latter scenario, additional investment and spending driven by productivity growth could push up inflation, requiring higher interest rates. Additionally, he emphasized the need to be wary of consumption and investment driven by future growth expectations. "The more intense the hype, the greater the need for rate hikes to prevent overheating," he said. (Jin10 Data APP) St. Louis Fed President Musalem said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the US economic and monetary policy outlook, but he believes that relative to employment risks, inflation risks are currently rising. Musalem said on Wednesday: "Inflation is clearly above our 2% target. We face risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. Based on my assessment, risks are tilting more toward inflation rather than employment." Musalem said the US Fed's benchmark policy rate is currently at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, or possibly slightly accommodative. He said: "There are very plausible scenarios that require us to hold the current policy rate unchanged for a period of time." However, he also noted that he sees scenarios that could require officials to cut interest rates further, or to raise rates. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 93.5%, with a 6.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 86.5%, with a 13.0% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be released. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 5.93% and Brent down 7.2%. FXPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in a report that as the US is unwilling to further escalate tensions in the conflict with Iran, the oil market has now priced in a peace deal as the base case scenario. "Once shipping resumes quickly, tankers trapped in the Strait of Hormuz will release supply in a concentrated burst in the short term, pushing down Brent and WTI crude prices." However, he added that since global inventories have already been depleted and repairs to damaged infrastructure in Gulf states still require time, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this year. "The decline in Brent and WTI prices will likely be very rapid but will not last long." (Jin10 Data APP) According to market observer The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching consensus on a "14-point" agreement to end the war, crude oil short positions worth approximately $920 million were established. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), with no major news, the market established nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. In notional value, this trade was approximately $920 million — an unusually large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close to" reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran war. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil short positions had unrealized gains of approximately $125 million. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a foreign media survey, as the Iran conflict continued to hinder Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further declines in Kuwait and Iran production. The survey showed Kuwait had the largest production decline last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports had fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) (Jin10 Data APP) US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was at its lowest since the week of December 6, 2024, and domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since the week of January 30, 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM April 24 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel and SHFE nickel both rose over 1%, with LME nickel up 1.68% and SHFE nickel up 1.65%. SHFE copper rose 0.04%, and SHFE tin rose 0.11%. The remaining metals all declined. LME copper and LME tin both fell over 1%, with LME copper down 1.19% and LME tin down 1.35%. The rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.25%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose. Stainless steel rose 1.14%, and iron ore rose 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, both coking coal and coke fell 0.51%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 0.93%, and COMEX silver fell 3.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.2%, and SHFE silver fell 1.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on April 24: Macro Front China: [General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: The NDRC, NBS, and National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data] The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality." The measures stipulate that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data, regularly monitoring indicators such as carbon emissions, coal consumption, oil consumption, new electricity consumption, and new clean energy power consumption at the national level and across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and issue reminders and warnings to relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) as appropriate. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) [National Energy Administration: As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-March. As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.24 billion kW, up 31.3% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.4% YoY. From January to March, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 703 hours, down 66 hours from the same period last year. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the trading fee standards for platinum and palladium futures-related contracts.] After deliberation, effective from the trading session on April 27, 2026, the trading fee standards for platinum futures PT2606 and palladium futures PD2606 contracts will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value, and the intraday close-today trading fee standards will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.83. Mitsubishi UFJ: Uncertainty over US trade policy persists. The Trump administration appears to favor a weaker US dollar. Concerns over US Fed independence remain given Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman. (Jin10 Data APP) At the Senate hearing held this week, Warsh's performance was largely in line with expectations: he reaffirmed the importance of US Fed independence and elaborated on his views regarding US Fed reform, balance sheet reduction, and long-term economic trends. Although Trump has been publicly calling for interest rate cuts, Warsh made it clear that Trump had not asked him to make any commitments on cutting interest rates. However, the real highlight of the hearing was Warsh's in-depth discussion on "how to measure inflation." This is likely to become the new framework for defining price trends once Warsh takes the helm of the US Fed. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US April one-year inflation rate expectations final reading, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together. WTI crude rose 4.35% and Brent crude rose 4.02%, marking a four-session winning streak, driven by renewed escalation in the Middle East situation and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration plans to extend a shipping waiver allowing foreign tankers to transport oil and gasoline within the US to address supply disruptions and price increases triggered by the Iran conflict. According to sources, the decision to continue exempting energy shipments from the Jones Act could be announced as early as local time Friday. The current waiver is set to expire on May 17. This move could provide some relief for US refiners that are beginning to book waterborne cargo for July. It remains unclear how long the extension will last or what range of commodities it will cover. A White House official said the extension was under consideration but provided no further details. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts at ING said that due to slow progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, the market had to readjust expectations, as this raised concerns about the impact of prolonged supply disruptions on products. As regional mediators raced against time to get the diplomatic process back on track, and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly rebounded above $100 per barrel. However, these analysts noted: "If negotiations make no progress, the market will become increasingly numb to the various rumors and headlines that have been dominating oil price movements recently." (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM April 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging down slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.42%. SHFE lead dropped 0.84%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.12%. SHFE tin fell 1.26%, and SHFE nickel declined 0.5%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.49%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.18%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.04%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.76%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.38%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both gaining less than 0.4%, and stainless steel down 0.54%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.32%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.82%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:51, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 1.7%. LME aluminum fell 1.12%, LME lead declined 0.84%, and LME zinc fell 0.81%. LME tin dropped 1.77%. LME nickel fell 1.38%. Precious metals, as of 11:51, COMEX gold fell 0.65%, and COMEX silver dropped 2.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.78%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 2.46%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 2.07%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.67%, closing at 2,221.7 points. As of 11:51 on April 23, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,310 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,210 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Xi Jinping recently issued important instructions emphasizing the need to further summarize and apply the "Yiwu Development Experience" and explore paths of high-quality development suited to local conditions] Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, recently issued important instructions noting that Yiwu's small commodities had forged a large market and built a major industry, forming the "Yiwu Development Experience," which represented a successful practice of developing county-level economies based on local conditions. Xi Jinping emphasized that, in conjunction with the learning and education campaign on establishing and practicing the correct view of political achievements, the "Yiwu Development Experience" should be further summarized and applied to guide regions across the country to leverage their own resource endowments, respect the pioneering spirit of grassroots communities and the people, pursue reform and innovation, take concrete actions, and sustain long-term efforts to explore paths of high-quality development suited to their respective conditions, so as to better serve and integrate into the overall national development landscape. During his tenure in Zhejiang, Xi Jinping visited Yiwu for surveys on multiple occasions and summarized and promoted the "Yiwu Development Experience." Over the years, Yiwu has continued to write new chapters in the story of "small commodities, big market." Currently, the number of business entities in its small commodities market has exceeded 1.26 million, with trade links to more than 230 countries and regions. In 2025, its foreign trade export value ranked first among all counties (cities and districts) nationwide. (Xinhua News Agency) [ PBOC reverse repo operations achieved zero net injection and zero net withdrawal on the day ] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, zero net injection and zero net withdrawal were achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:51, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 98.7. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the US Fed would have to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as the war-triggered energy shock further intensified already elevated inflation. In the April 17–21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists forecast that the US Fed's benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the end of September, whereas in the late March survey, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one interest rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected an interest rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expected at least one interest rate cut this year, with the median estimate pointing to only one cut, in line with the dot plot projections released by the US Fed last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, nearly double the proportion in previous surveys. A report from Oxford Economics noted that Kevin Warsh favors major reforms to the US Fed and its communication strategy — but any reforms he seeks to implement would be constrained by the need to build consensus among US Fed officials. The report stated: "The Fed Chairman cannot unilaterally make such reforms." The report also mentioned that potential changes to the US Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of Federal Open Market Committee meetings per year and not holding press conferences after every committee meeting. The report also noted that Warsh opposed the use of forward guidance as a policy tool and opposed the publication of economic forecasts. (Jin10 Data) US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett expressed support for Fed Chairman Powell's plan — that Powell would temporarily remain as Fed Chairman if his successor had not been confirmed by the Senate when his term expires in May. Hassett said on Wednesday: "I think that is the appropriate legal understanding." Trump has nominated Warsh to replace Powell, but Republicans currently do not have enough votes to advance the nomination from the Senate Banking Committee to the full Senate for a confirmation vote. Republican Senator Tom Tillis said he would hold off on voting until the Department of Justice stops the so-called "bogus" investigation into cost overruns in the renovation project of the US Fed building. Hassett said of Warsh: "We are very confident that he will become chairman at the appropriate time. I believe there will be discussions on how to move forward." (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today included US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US April S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, UK March public sector net borrowing, UK April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK April Services PMI preliminary reading, UK April CBI Industrial Orders balance, France April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, and Germany April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, among others. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce held its 4th regular press conference in April. European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech, and the second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon took place at the US State Department. On crude oil: As of 11:51, oil prices in both markets extended the bullish candlesticks of the previous two trading days and continued to rise, with WTI up 1.85% and Brent up 1.48%. Recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East sparked market concerns over supply, supporting oil prices. Wall Street Insights noted that Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at the request of Pakistan as mediator, saying US-Iran negotiations could resume as early as Friday, but Iran subsequently denied the possibility of talks on Friday. Iran's president said he "welcomed dialogue and agreements" but also criticized Trump for "contradictions between words and actions"; Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a comprehensive ceasefire would be impossible without the lifting of blockades. (Wall Street Insights) In an interview with Fox News, Trump said reports about a 3-to-5-day window for extending the ceasefire were fake. Regarding Iran's seizure of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said they were not US ships and that he would continue to monitor developments. On when to end the war, Trump said there was no timetable and he was in no rush. "People say I want to get this done quickly because of the midterms, that's not true," Trump said, adding that the administration wanted to secure a good deal for Americans. Trump also said that blockades scared them more than bombing — they had been bombed for many years, but what they hated was the blockade. Once those oil wells shut down, sometimes they shut down permanently. Trump expected that when negotiations resumed, Iran's foreign minister would still be there. Earlier, Fox News and Axios both reported that Trump had extended the ceasefire deadline by 3 to 5 days rather than indefinitely. In response, White House Press Secretary Leavitt also issued a statement saying that Trump had not set a deadline for extending the ceasefire with Iran, and that reports of giving Iran 3 to 5 days to respond were not true. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 23 News: Metals market: As of the overnight close, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down 0.03%. LME tin closed flat at $50,595/mt. LME copper and LME aluminum rose over 2%, with LME copper up 2.4% and LME aluminum up 2.58%. LME nickel rose 1.74%, and SHFE copper rose 1.4%. Other metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract up 0.81% and the casting aluminum front-month contract up 0.64%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, down 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.62%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal rose 0.67% and coke rose 1.01%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold rose 0.82% and COMEX silver rose 1.56%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.19% and SHFE silver rose 0.65%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 AM on April 23: Macro Front China: [Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction: Major Policy Document Issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council] On April 22, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council released the "Opinions on Achieving Higher-Level and Higher-Quality Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction." Energy conservation and carbon reduction serve as a key lever for advancing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and accelerating the green transformation of development models, and as an important pillar for safeguarding national energy security and promoting industrial quality upgrading. The Opinions require consistently adhering to the principle of conservation priority, integrating energy conservation and carbon reduction throughout the entire process and all aspects of economic and social development, achieving higher-level and higher-quality energy conservation and carbon reduction, firmly curbing unreasonable growth in total energy consumption, continuously improving energy and resource output efficiency, and effectively reducing carbon emissions at the source, so as to provide strong support for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. The Opinions set out specific arrangements in areas including coordinating energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation; vigorously advancing energy conservation and carbon reduction in key sectors; further strengthening supervision and management of energy conservation and carbon reduction; and reinforcing support and safeguards for energy conservation and carbon reduction work. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.61. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the US Fed will have to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as the energy shock triggered by the conflict has once again intensified already elevated inflation. In the April 17-21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists forecast that the US Fed's benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range through the end of September, whereas in the late March survey, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one interest rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected an interest rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expected at least one interest rate cut this year, with the median estimate pointing to only one cut, in line with the dot plot projections released by the US Fed last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect rates to remain unchanged this year, nearly double the proportion in the previous survey. (Jin10 Data APP) Reuters poll: 56 out of 103 economists believed the US Fed would keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range through September (in the late March survey, 56 out of 82 economists forecast at least one interest rate cut by September). (Jin10 Data APP) A report from Oxford Economics noted that Kevin Warsh favors major reforms to the US Fed and its communication strategy — but any reforms he wishes to implement would be constrained by the need to build consensus among US Fed officials. The report stated: "The Fed Chairman cannot unilaterally make such reforms." The report also mentioned that potential changes to the US Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of annual FOMC meetings and not holding press conferences after every committee meeting. The report further noted that Warsh opposes the use of forward guidance as a policy tool and opposes the publication of economic projections. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US April S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, UK March public sector net borrowing, UK April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK April Services PMI preliminary reading, UK April CBI Industrial Orders balance, France April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, and Germany April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its 4th regular press conference in April. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech, and the second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon will be held at the US State Department. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose together, with WTI up 3.57% and Brent up 3.12%. Crude oil futures rose for a third consecutive trading day, as expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were dashed once again. Ritterbusch & Associates stated in a report that Trump's extension of the ceasefire agreement removed the immediate possibility of escalation, but negotiations could be delayed, and the US blockade would likely remain in place indefinitely. Exports via alternative routes and the release of strategic petroleum reserves partially offset the impact of the strait closure on oil prices, while "price-related demand destruction is becoming a hotter topic." (Jin10 Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventory increased last week, while gasoline and refined product inventories declined, and total US exports reached record levels due to supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. The EIA said crude oil inventory increased by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels in the week ending April 17, compared with expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decrease. The EIA said crude oil inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub increased by 806,000 barrels. Despite the unexpected inventory build, oil prices still rose. (Jin10 Data APP) Sources: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) blend crude oil export plan for May was set at 1.8 million barrels per day, up from the April plan of 1.65 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan plans to reroute some crude oil originally scheduled for delivery to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in May to CPC exports. (Reuters) (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 20: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper was up 0.79%. SHFE aluminum was down 1.22%. SHFE lead was up 0.18%, and SHFE zinc was up 1.08%. SHFE tin was up 0.26%, and SHFE nickel was down 0.88%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.1%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.32%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.05%. The most-traded polysilicon futures hit the daily limit up with a 9% gain. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.8%, hot-rolled coil up 0.9%, and stainless steel down 0.23%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 2.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, most LME metals rose. LME copper was down 0.21%. LME aluminum was up 0.66%, LME lead edged up, and LME zinc was up 0.61%. LME tin was down 0.28%. LME nickel was up 1.53%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold was down 1.32%, and COMEX silver was down 1.8%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.1%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.84%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.23%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 0.23%, at 2,100 points. As of 11:40 on April 20, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals...... Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: Total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively from January to March, up 5.2% YoY] The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for March. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of electricity consumption by sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, electricity consumption for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services was 37.6 billion kWh and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates reaching 53.8% and 44.0% respectively. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Rates Released: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Remained Unchanged for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Property Projects] Recently, the "Notice of Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing Trade-in Program" was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a comprehensive solution that systematically addresses bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in the involvement of multiple real estate enterprises: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.05% at 98.28. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of the US Fed cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that US Fed Governor Milan and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously hotly debated "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and other sources of reserve demand. Monte Carlo simulations estimated the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data) On other currencies: Asian Development Bank President Kanda Masato stated that the yen could face further pressure if the market perceives the Bank of Japan as acting too slowly in addressing inflation risks. Kanda Masato, who previously served as Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat, told reporters on Friday evening that investors buy US dollars during periods of global tension partly because the US is an oil exporter, but even if these positions are unwound, the yen would find it difficult to appreciate significantly against the US dollar. He said: "The biggest reason is the interest rate differential. As the market pays particular attention to what the US Fed might do, if many people believe the Bank of Japan will fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks, the yen will be left behind." Kanda Masato said during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group meetings in Washington this week that investors could also sell the yen if they are concerned about Japan's fiscal sustainability. (Jin10 Data) On data: Germany's March PPI month-over-month rate and Canada's March CPI month-over-month rate, among other data, were to be released today. Also worth watching: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. On crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 5.73% and Brent up 5.38%. Last Friday, the market was still celebrating ceasefire prospects, but within 72 hours over the weekend, the situation took a sharp turn — the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, the US seized an Iranian vessel, and Trump issued tough threats, quickly dashing the market's optimistic sentiment. (Wall Street Insights) The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Project Management Office website under the US Department of Energy (DOE) released information on the 17th stating that it would lend over 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 9 oil enterprises. This was the third batch of petroleum reserves released by the Trump administration to stabilize oil prices since the US-Israel-Iran conflict began on February 28. (Jin10 Data) Australia's Viva Energy Group stated that its refinery in Geelong, Australia, would increase production of diesel, aviation fuel, and gasoline to 90% of full capacity in the coming weeks, after a major fire forced it to reduce production. The company stated that its inventory was sufficient to cover the production decline and was not expected to impact clients. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report stated that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw further positive developments. Although the first round of negotiations "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted market optimism, despite subsequent fluctuations. This was largely consistent with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, the situation ultimately spiraling out of control in the medium term is not the base case scenario. Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation does not serve either side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. 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