SMM June 29 news: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market saw nearly broad gains. SHFE copper rose 1.11%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE zinc gained 2.01%, SHFE tin increased 1.19%, and SHFE nickel inched up 0.1%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 1.08%, the most-traded alumina contract added 0.86%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract jumped 2.27%, the most-traded silicon metal contract ticked up 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.59%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore added 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel inched up 0.03%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract jumped 2.25%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.32%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.29%, LME aluminum fell 0.44%, LME lead added 0.24%, LME zinc dipped 0.1%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel inched up. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 1.23%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 2.77%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 3.78%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight index futures contract ticked up 0.19% to 3,715 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:43 on June 29: Spot Market and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Ministry of Commerce Adds 20 Japanese Entities to Export Control List] Ministry of Commerce: To safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to add 20 Japanese entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies, which are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities, to the export control list. First, the export of dual-use items to the above 20 entities by operators is prohibited, and overseas organizations and individuals are prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the above 20 entities; ongoing related activities must be immediately ceased. II. If export is genuinely necessary under special circumstances, the exporter shall apply to the Ministry of Commerce. [China's highest-latitude solar thermal power station begins operation] Today (June 29), the first solar thermal power station in Northeast China — the 100,000 kW CGN Jixi Base solar thermal power station — was put into operation in Da'an City, Jilin Province, marking a new breakthrough in the application of solar thermal power technology in high-latitude, severely cold regions of China. Located at 45.36 degrees north latitude in a severe cold climate zone, it is China's highest-latitude solar thermal station, with an installed capacity of 100,000 kW, a heat storage duration of up to 8 hours, and the ability to operate safely, stably, and continuously 24 hours a day. This type of station primarily uses large arrays of mirrors to focus sunlight onto heat collection devices, thereby achieving energy storage. (CCTV News) The PBOC conducted a 157.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 476.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. For the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 101.33. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, with a 30.5% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the probabilities are: unchanged (40.4%), cumulative 25bp hike (46.9%), cumulative 50bp hike (12.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) Gavekal Research noted in a report: "In 2025, the market was widely concerned that Trump would undermine the independence of US monetary policy by nominating a political puppet as Fed Chairman, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates and causing inflation to consistently exceed the Fed's 2% target." "Developments over the past seven months have made that scenario unlikely." These developments include the appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, and the reappointment of 11 out of 12 regional Fed presidents. At the first Fed meeting chaired by Warsh earlier this month, the Fed underscored its commitment to price stability, surprising some market participants who had expected a more dovish stance under the new chair. (Jin10 Data APP) According to "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, sources revealed that the selection process for the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final pick, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this is merely a procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the US Fed's independence is facing serious challenges. The presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid being influenced by Washington's political operations. (Jin10 Data APP) Data wise: Data releases today will include the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, the Eurozone June economic sentiment index, and the US June Dallas Fed business activity index, among others. Also in focus: the European Central Bank is hosting the Global Central Banking Forum in Sintra, through July 1; and the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference is being held from June 29 to 30. Crude oil wise: As of 11:43 a.m., oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.14% and Brent up 0.87%. The US and Iran clashed militarily again over the weekend, negotiations stalled, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz were reignited, supporting oil prices. According to CCTV news reporters on June 28, a senior US official revealed that both sides have agreed to stop attacking each other and plan to meet on June 30 in the Qatari capital to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, neither the US and Iran nor the mediators Pakistan and Qatar have made any official statement. (Wall Street Insights) A report released by energy services company Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of new drilling rigs added by US energy companies in a single week hit a new high since June 2022. The total number of oil and gas drilling rigs, an early indicator of future production, increased by 10 in the week ending June 29, the largest weekly increase in four years. The total rig count reached 573, the highest level since May 2025. Baker Hughes stated that this week's increase brought the total rig count 26 higher YoY, an increase of 5%. The company said the number of oil rigs increased by 7 to 440 this week, the highest since June 2025. Natural gas rigs increased by 3 to 125, while rigs classified as other remained unchanged at 8. (Jin10 Data APP) Furthermore, Russian President Putin stated that car owners and various enterprises still face difficulties in fuel supply, with queuing common at gas stations across the country. Affected by the shutdown of multiple refineries, Russia is introducing measures to stabilize the domestic market, and Putin confirmed that a total ban on diesel exports is one of the options being discussed. After meetings with oil producers and government departments on Friday, the Russian Energy Ministry recommended against imposing a diesel export ban for now, citing that it could cause issues such as diesel inventory buildup; the government will reassess the market situation on Monday. Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: U.S.-Iran Talks Break Down, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract’s Price Center Fluctuates Downward]

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

New Fed Chair Warsh adjusted the Fed's communication framework during his first quarterly press conference, downplaying the emphasis on dot plot guidance and cautioning the market against overinterpreting policymakers' interest rate projections. He did not submit his own individual projections. Warsh stated that the current high inflation is sustained by three long-term factors—energy, tariffs, and housing—rather than a short-term one-off disturbance, and that price stability is the primary policy goal. Warsh did not lock in a fixed interest rate path, stressing that rates could be adjusted in either direction at every meeting and that the Fed would not proactively cut interest rates solely to boost the economy. Over the longer term, AI is expected to improve productivity and ease inflation pressures after 2027, becoming the core prerequisite for rate cuts. Warsh's overall stance was hawkish, further extinguishing near-term market expectations for rate cuts and driving a notable rise in market-implied probabilities of a year-end interest rate hike.

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 8 News: Metal Markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly declined. SHFE copper fell 1.5%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both dropped 0.74%, SHFE lead edged down 0.21%, and SHFE tin slumped 5.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum contract futures fell 0.39%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.8%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract edged up 0.38%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.27%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.1%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore down 0.92%, rebar edging up, and HRC on par with 3,378 yuan/mt. Stainless steel increased by 0.44%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, while the most-traded coke contract edged down 0.02%. Overseas Market Base Metals: As of 11:46, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.34%, LME aluminum fell 0.11%, and LME lead lost 0.15%. LME zinc declined 0.18%, LME tin edged up, and LME nickel gained 0.38%. Precious Metals: As of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.78%, and COMEX silver dropped 2.23%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.55%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 8.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 4.24%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures contract rose 4.78% to 3,837 points. As of 11:46 on June 8, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,945 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 103,860 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Fully Leverage Market Mechanisms to Encourage Private Enterprise Participation in Urban Infrastructure Construction and Operation] Qin Haixiang, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, stated at a State Council policy routine briefing that localities should make good use of central fiscal funds, local government special bonds, and credit funds. They should fully leverage market mechanisms, actively attract social capital participation, and encourage private enterprises to take part in urban infrastructure construction and operation, so as to build a sustainable investment and financing system for urban construction and operation. [Ministry of Natural Resources: Adhere to the Supply Orientation of Prioritizing Existing Land, Operating Projects to Prioritize the Use of Existing Land] Xie Haixia, Director of the Territorial Spatial Planning Bureau of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated at a regular policy briefing of the State Council that innovative land use support policies will be introduced. The ministry will adhere to the supply orientation of prioritizing existing land, with operating projects prioritizing the use of existing land, while newly added land will primarily ensure the needs of municipal infrastructure. In response to strong pressure to revitalize existing funds reported by operating entities, the Ministry of Natural Resources has launched a transitional period policy. [PBOC Open Market Operations Achieve a Net Injection of 207.5 Billion Yuan for the Day] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 11 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the operation resulted in a net injection of 207.5 billion yuan for the day. On the US dollar front: As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 100.04. US President Trump stated that it would be a mistake if Fed policymakers chose to raise interest rates after US jobs data significantly beat expectations. He also insisted he does not want to influence Kevin Warsh ahead of his first Fed meeting. In an interview with NBC, Trump said, "Nowadays, whenever economic data comes in well, the market falls because people think the Fed will raise interest rates. But there’s no reason to raise rates at all." Trump's remarks further increased the economic and political pressure facing Warsh. Trump said, "Raising the benchmark rate is the wrong thing to do. Actually, we should be cutting rates." Trump stated, "I’m working with Kevin now. I have great respect for him, but my view is that when a country is doing well economically, you shouldn’t immediately punish it by raising rates." He added, "We have a debt problem and many other things to deal with, and many plans to move forward. I want to further expand defense spending." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 97%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 3%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 81.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 2.5%. Goldman Sachs economists said they no longer expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year, as the labour market was stronger than expected. The bank postponed the expected timing of the Fed's final two rate cuts from December 2026 and March 2027 to June and December 2027. However, Goldman Sachs' chief US economist Merrick pointed out that as inflation "seems unlikely to become self-sustaining," the likelihood of US Fed interest rate hikes remains relatively low. US job growth in May surpassed all expectations, demonstrating the resilience of the labour market and intensifying market bets that the central bank will raise interest rates. Goldman Sachs continues to view the likelihood of rate hikes as low, but raised the probability of a small rate hike from 10% to 20%. The bank’s baseline forecast still expects two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts next year, but lowered the probability from 40% to 30%. Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for the US unemployment rate this year to 4.4% from the previous 4.6%. On the data front: today will see the release of Switzerland's May consumer confidence index, the Eurozone's June Sentix investor confidence index, and the US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, among others. In addition, attention should be paid to: the State Council's regular policy briefing on the "15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal." On the crude oil front: as of 11:46 AM, both benchmark crudes rose, with US crude up 3.25% and Brent crude up 3.44%. The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to stoke supply disruption concerns, supporting oil prices. According to the communiqué released after OPEC's Sunday meeting, seven countries within the OPEC+ framework (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman) decided to raise their daily crude oil production ceiling by 188,000 barrels starting in July. The communiqué stated that the countries reaffirmed the importance of a cautious approach and will retain full flexibility to increase, pause, or reverse the process of voluntary production adjustments. (Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its main crude oil for Asia for the second consecutive month, though its crude premium in its largest market remains near multi-decade highs. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price of its Arab Light crude for next month’s shipments to Asia by $6 per barrel, bringing the premium over the Oman/Dubai average to $9.50 per barrel. The cut was larger than the $5 per barrel reduction expected by refiners and traders. As negotiations between the US and Iran over an extended ceasefire remain deadlocked, the global oil market continues to be disrupted by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf and empty vessels unable to enter to load new cargoes, the Middle East has significantly reduced production, shut down fields, and slowed or halted refinery operations. Additionally, the pricing documents show that Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude to Northwest Europe for July at a premium of $15.85 per barrel over ICE Brent settlement, and set the official selling price to the US at a premium of $12.60 per barrel over Argus Sour Crude. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Jun 05, 2026 - 12:31 AM Rising inflation pressures due to the ongoing war in Iran mean investors will have to wait a little longer for gold to break out of its current consolidation phase, according to Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank. Fritsch noted that gold’s price action since the war started has been counterintuitive to fundamental market beliefs. The precious metal, traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, has fallen even as the global energy crisis pushes consumer prices higher. At the same time, despite the chaos in the Middle East, gold has been unable to attract a safe-haven bid. However, Fritsch explained that the gold market is currently struggling as market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have shifted dramatically since the Iran conflict began. “Before the start of the Iran war, market participants had expected the Fed to cut interest rates by around 50 basis points this year. Since the start of the war and the resulting rise in oil prices, there has been a noticeable shift in interest rate expectations. Fed Funds futures currently imply a US key interest rate of around 3.8% at the end of the year. With an effective Fed rate of just over 3.6%, the market therefore expects the Fed to raise interest rates later this year. A 25-basis-point rate hike is fully priced in by spring 2027,” he said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see more than a 50% chance of a rate hike in December. The threat of rising interest rates is increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. In this environment, Commerzbank has adjusted its year-end price target. The German bank sees gold prices ending the year at around $4,800 an ounce, down from its initial target of $5,000. “This implies some upside potential for the coming months, as our new base-case scenario envisages a two-month transition period, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in Brent oil prices, which should reverse the current expectations of interest rate hikes,” Fritsch said. The updated outlook comes as gold prices continue to struggle below $4,500 an ounce. Spot gold was last trading at $4,483.95 an ounce, up 1.11% on the day. However, Commerzbank’s updated target suggests the market could see an 8% rally from current prices by year-end. Fritsch said there is still potential for gold, as Commerzbank does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year. The bank’s economists forecast that rates will remain unchanged and that the next move is still likely to be a cut. However, Fritsch said the next rate cut is not expected until at least the second quarter of 2027. “We therefore maintain our price forecast of USD 5,200 per troy ounce for the end of 2027,” he said. “The structural factors supporting gold remain entirely intact. These include eroding confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency, which is likely to lead to further gold purchases by central banks. Investor interest in gold is also likely to remain high. This is supported by the already high and rapidly rising levels of government debt, which are leading to monetary policy that is too loose when measured against inflation.” Along with its revised gold forecast, Fritsch has also downgraded his silver outlook. Commerzbank expects silver prices to end the year at around $80 an ounce. “In addition to the lowered gold price forecast, weaker industrial demand for silver also points to a slightly lower silver price. According to the latest assessment by the Silver Institute, industrial demand is set to decline for the second consecutive year, falling to a four-year low. Nevertheless, the silver market remains tight, which is why we expect the silver price to rise in the coming year,” he said. Commerzbank projects silver prices to end 2027 at around $90 an ounce, down from its previous target of $95 an ounce. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-04/commerzbank-not-giving-metals-sees-4800oz-gold-80oz-silver-year-end

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2607 opened at 94,370 yuan/mt, touching a high of 94,710 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward. After the daytime session opened, the copper price center continued to shift lower, dipping to 93,000 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 93,300 yuan/mt, down 1.85%. Open interest stood at 11,187 lots, down 166 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 7,668 lots, indicating bulls reducing positions. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations remained at a stalemate, and tensions in the Gulf region escalated again, weighing on copper prices. Additionally, the US ADP employment data exceeded market expectations, and the New York Fed President stated that there was no need to raise or cut interest rates at present. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals from both imported and domestic sources remained low. Demand side, copper prices pulled back somewhat, stimulating downstream purchasing sentiment and releasing rigid demand. As of Thursday, June 4, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide decreased by 10,900 mt WoW to 234,300 mt. Inventory-wise, total inventory increased by 85,500 mt compared to the same period last year when it was 148,800 mt. The SHFE copper 2607 contract closed at 105,150 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2607 contract at 93,300 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,429 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2607 contract and BC copper was -279, maintaining an inversion but narrowing notably from the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,948.5/mt, touched a high of $13,952/mt early in the session, then the copper price center moved downward throughout the session, touching a low of $13,785/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,785.5/mt, down 1.42%, with trading volume at 21,000 lots and open interest at 272,000 lots, a decrease of 370 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 106,360 yuan/mt, touched a high of 106,540 yuan/mt right at the open, then the copper price center fluctuated downward, touching a low of 105,730 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 105,860 yuan/mt, down 0.49%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots and open interest at 185,000 lots, a decrease of 3,142 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: US ADP Employment Data Falls Short of Expectations, LME Zinc Center Moves Lower] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,636/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily average line. As the European trading session began, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc oscillated higher to touch $3,658/mt. Prices at night session continued to pull back, dipping to $3,593/mt. Toward the end of the session, prices stopped falling and rebounded, slightly recovering lost ground, ultimately closing lower at $3,603/mt, down $27.5/mt, a decline of 0.76%. Trading volume decreased to 88,462 lots, and open interest increased by 3,764 lots to 231,000 lots.