Trump's May 13-15, 2026 state visit starkly contrasts with his Nov 2017 trip, where $250B in deals epitomized globalization. Months later, in March 2018, a trade war erupted.

SMM May 15 News: In May 2026, the global molybdenum market remained in a persistently tight supply-demand pattern, with prices extending and accelerating the upward trend seen in April. International molybdenum oxide prices kept surging at high levels, while domestic molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum prices repeatedly hit new stage highs.

In April 2026, magnesium prices fell by a cumulative 800 yuan/mt within the month. As of April 30, mainstream quotations for 99.90% magnesium ingot in the Fugu and Shenmu areas remained at 16,600 yuan/mt. In April 2026, domestic magnesium ingot prices continued to decline overall. Supply side, the earlier recovery in magnesium prices drove profit restoration across the industry, and under profit incentives, major magnesium producers actively raised operating rates and increased magnesium ingot production, resulting in a notable increase in market supply and growing overall supply pressure. Demand side, downstream producers in China exhibited strong fear of high prices, mostly making just-in-time procurement, with the overall procurement pace slowing down significantly. Meanwhile, export trade was affected by stricter customs inspections, with order clearance and shipment disrupted, leading to a short-term pullback in exports. Insufficient support from both domestic and external demand dragged April magnesium prices into a sustained decline. Primary magnesium production rose 3.63% MoM in April. April domestic primary magnesium production increased notably, mainly because magnesium prices rose steadily from late March and market conditions continued to recover. Rising magnesium prices drove profit restoration at smelters, prompting previously idled or low-load enterprises to resume production under profit incentives, while operating enterprises simultaneously raised their operating loads. Industry operating rates continued to climb, with enterprises collectively ramping up and resuming production, pushing April primary magnesium production to grow steadily. By province, most primary magnesium smelters maintained stable production in April, while some increased output. Provinces with rising primary magnesium production in April were mainly Shaanxi and Xinjiang. Specifically, primary magnesium smelters in the main producing areas saw production increases, with Shaanxi's share of primary magnesium edging up slightly as two primary magnesium smelters resumed production and most operated at full capacity. In April, one primary magnesium smelter in Xinjiang gradually commissioned new capacity, and Xinjiang's share of primary magnesium production edged up. Looking ahead to May, current magnesium prices are approaching the cost lines of primary magnesium smelters in the main producing areas. Some producers plan to halt production for maintenance in May, and primary magnesium production is expected to edge down slightly in May. In April 2026, magnesium alloy production decreased 7.18% MoM. This round of decline in magnesium alloy production was caused by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides: affected by the continued decline in magnesium ingot prices, the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn spread among downstream players, with die-casting enterprises showing weak order willingness. This was compounded by the cancellation of some magnesium alloy orders by the two-wheeler industry, triggering a chain reaction that further pressured midstream processing orders. Meanwhile, after a fire incident at a die-casting plant, regional environmental protection supervision tightened, constraining production. Multiple factors dragged down magnesium alloy orders. Supply side, some alloy enterprises entered routine maintenance cycles, leading to phased production cuts, and production performance remained weak under multiple pressures. Magnesium alloy production is expected to continue its upward trend in May. Supply side, according to SMM, multiple magnesium alloy smelters raised their operating rates, and some magnesium alloy production lines at smelters that were under maintenance in April resumed production. A newly built magnesium alloy smelter was completed and put into operation, with magnesium alloy supply rising steadily. Demand side, die-casting equipment is being installed successively, and current magnesium alloy die-casting capacity is rising steadily. Moreover, stricter enforcement of the new national standard for two-wheelers may transmit policy-driven momentum upstream to drive a recovery in magnesium alloy orders. Overall, the magnesium alloy market is expected to see robust supply and demand in May, with magnesium alloy production growing steadily. In early to mid-May, operating rates of China's primary magnesium smelters stayed high, with operating rates in major producing areas rising above 80%. Spot supply of magnesium ingots in the market was ample, and overall inventory pressure on smelters was relatively high. After the Labour Day holiday, some magnesium plants urgently needed to collect payments to pay electricity bills, distribute employee wages, and maintain daily operations, proactively offering price concessions to stimulate transactions. However, supported by raw material and production costs, the room for price adjustments by magnesium plants was limited, and the magnesium ingot price range remained at 16,000-16,500 yuan/mt in early to mid-May. In mid to late May, after a prolonged gradual decline in magnesium prices in the earlier period, magnesium prices bottomed out driven by concentrated downstream restocking, but the overall rebound height was limited. Current market supply pressure is relatively high, and magnesium prices lack unilateral upward momentum. Meanwhile, from the perspective of costs and the supply-demand pattern, downside room for magnesium prices has also narrowed. On one hand, primary magnesium smelters are already approaching the break-even line and can hardly withstand significant deep price drops. On the other hand, current temperatures already meet the conditions for magnesium plants to halt production for maintenance. If prices continue to decline further, smelters may collectively halt production for maintenance to contract supply, ease market inventory pressure, and further support magnesium prices.

China's steel billet exports performed strongly in Q1 2026, showing a continuous growth trend. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's steel billet exports in March 2026 reached 1.53 million mt, up 66.0% MoM and up 47.9% YoY, hitting a record high for a single month in the same period in recent years.

[SMM Analysis] After Sulfur Breaks Through $1,200: How Far Is the Ceiling? — The Ultimate Game Under International Supply Disruptions, Discussing China's Sulfur Policies and International Supplementary Supply Pathways

[SMM Silver Express] India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid the duties to resume imports, clearing 9 tonnes of gold and 34 tonnes of silver in May.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Mine-Side Disruptions, LME Zinc Continues to Rally] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,482/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,457/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of $3,542.5/mt near the close. It ultimately closed higher at $3,532.5/mt, up $50.5/mt, a gain of 1.45%. Trading volume increased to 15,265 lots, and open interest rose by 727 lots to 242,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Steel] Vietnam imported 1.43 million mt of steel in April 2026, up 14.8% from March, according to Vietnam Customs data. Scrap imports also increased 15.3% MoM to 641,118 mt. In the January-April period, Vietnam’s steel imports totaled 5.04 million mt, down 1.2% YoY, while scrap imports rose 4.6% YoY to 2.13 million mt.

SMM News, May 12: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 2.51%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.18%. SHFE lead was down 0.99%. SHFE zinc was up 1.8%. SHFE tin was up 1.47%. SHFE nickel was down 0.71%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were up 0.19%, and the most-traded alumina futures were down 1.24%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures were up 1.63%. The most-traded silicon metal futures were down 2.84%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous two trading days, falling 4.37%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 820.5 yuan/mt. Rebar was down 0.18%. Hot-rolled coil edged up slightly. Stainless steel was down 0.13%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was down 2.54%, and the most-traded coke contract was down 1.21%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up slightly. LME aluminum was down 0.74%. LME zinc edged down slightly. LME lead was down 0.53%. LME tin was down 0.16%. LME nickel was down 1.22%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold was up 0.13%, and COMEX silver was up 1.06%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 6.43%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were up 2.9%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 1.23%, at 2,474.5 points. As of 11:43 on May 12, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 190 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,355 yuan/mt, up 1,385 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 104,325 yuan/mt, up 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again today, mainly due to increased arrivals and weak consumption... Macro Front China: The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. No reverse repos matured today. [CICC: China's PPI and CPI are expected to have further upside room on a YoY basis over the next two months] CICC commented on April 2026 price data, noting that PPI rose 1.7% MoM in April, with the YoY increase expanding from 0.5% in the previous month to 2.8%. The PPI increase exceeded expectations, mainly because price gains were highly concentrated in the energy and chemical industry chain. April CPI rose 0.3% MoM, stronger than seasonal patterns, with CPI YoY growth also rebounding from 1.0% in the previous month to 1.2%, primarily driven by energy prices and holiday travel demand. Looking ahead, CICC believes that against the backdrop of ongoing tug-of-war in US-Iran negotiations, international oil prices will most likely fluctuate at highs. Given the time lag in price transmission from oil price shocks, PPI and CPI YoY are expected to still have upside room in the next two months. However, this round of production-side price recovery shows clear structural divergence, with upstream price increases significantly stronger than downstream. In an environment of weak end-use consumption demand, imported cost-push inflation is likely to continue suppressing profitability in mid- to downstream industries. US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.14. On May 11 local time, the US Customs and Border Protection announced that the first batch of refunds for illegal tariffs will begin on May 12, with some US enterprises set to receive tax refund funds. The US government launched an online application platform last month, allowing enterprises to apply for refunds of tariffs previously paid but later ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court. US Customs data shows that over 330,000 importers paid a total of approximately $166 billion in related tariffs. As of April 26, at least 75,000 enterprises had submitted refund applications. (CCTV News) The market is focused on copper data to be released tonight, which will help assess the US Fed's interest rate path. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June is 97.7%, with a 2.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July is 94.6%, with a 5.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. Other currencies: Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki stated that following her meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in Tokyo, her team is conducting smooth cooperation with the US side in the foreign exchange policy area. Katayama said she would not comment on Bessent's specific remarks. This is Bessent's third visit to Japan since assuming his cabinet position. Markets are closely watching this meeting, as it comes less than two weeks after Tokyo authorities' suspected large-scale yen intervention lasting several days to boost the yen exchange rate. Bessent has previously hinted that he is critical of direct market intervention, instead favoring support for the yen through the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy. The Japanese authorities likely first intervened in the market on April 30, when the Bank of Japan's decision to keep policy unchanged, combined with hawkish signals released by the US Fed, jointly pushed the yen-to-dollar exchange rate past the 160 level. Data analysis showed that the Japanese authorities may have deployed approximately $24.7 billion in this operation, followed by an additional approximately $30 billion in a subsequent round of intervention. Katayama said she also discussed topics such as artificial intelligence and critical minerals with Bessent. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Today saw the release of Germany's April CPI MoM final reading, Germany's May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, and US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY. In addition, attention should also be paid to: the Bank of Japan releasing the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12 to 13 for trade consultations with the US side. Crude oil: As of 11:43, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.95% and Brent up 0.87%. Uncertainty over the prospects of US-Iran negotiations kept market concerns about supply alive, supporting oil prices. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) allocated 53.5 million barrels of crude oil to companies including commodity trader Trafigura Group and US refiner Marathon Petroleum, to help ease the oil price surge triggered by the Iran war. Ahead of the US summer driving peak, the US government is releasing near-record levels of crude oil to the market to push down oil prices. The crude oil will be released from June to August, when refineries will ramp up capacity to meet peak gasoline demand. This second-largest SPR sale in history is also part of a global effort led by the International Energy Agency to bring down oil prices. Last week, the US already released a daily average of 1.22 million barrels of crude oil under the aforementioned framework, setting a historical record. The Trump administration has pledged to release 172 million barrels of crude oil through a so-called "exchange program." Under this mechanism, crude oil is lent to enterprises and must later be returned in physical form. As of now, the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►