SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,060/mt. Early in the session, the copper price center gradually shifted lower to $12,937.5/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $13,075/mt, before experiencing wild swings and ultimately closing at $13,034.5/mt, down 1.45%, with trading volume at 27,900 lots and open interest at 275,500 lots, down 3,200 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,020 yuan/mt, touching a low of 100,620 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated upward to 101,320 yuan/mt, before moving sideways and ultimately closing at 101,000 yuan/mt, down 1.15%, with trading volume at 51,000 lots and open interest at 200,000 lots, down 2,327 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase directly from smelters to ensure invoice issuance for the current month, diverting some demand from the spot trading market. Demand side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, but according to SMM, actual demand growth is limited. At current copper prices and premium levels, some downstream enterprises show low acceptance and are reluctant to chase higher prices. Supplier side, with month-end settlement approaching, some suppliers are less enthusiastic about shipments, and available low-priced cargo is limited, providing support for spot premiums. Overall, amid the interplay between tight invoices and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

SMM April 27 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, April 27, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased by 10,300 mt WoW to 248,600 mt, with total inventory up 93,500 mt compared to the same period last year at 155,100 mt, marking the seventh consecutive week of destocking. Specifically, imported arrivals in Shanghai remained stable, domestic supply stayed tight, downstream just-in-time procurement was steadily released, and inventory continued to decline; in Jiangsu, domestic arrivals contracted notably, warehouse withdrawals maintained a steady pace, driving continued inventory pullback; Guangdong also continued the destocking trend, as smelting maintenance suppressed domestic arrivals, coupled with rising downstream stocking ahead of the Labour Day holiday and marginal improvement in consumption, jointly supporting steady regional inventory decline. Market outlook: on the supply side, imported arrivals are expected to remain stable, domestic arrivals will stay low, and the overall tight supply pattern is unlikely to change in the short term. Demand side, downstream enterprises primarily make just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption pace slightly weakening; however, as the Labour Day holiday approaches, pre-holiday restocking demand is gradually being released, providing a phased boost to consumption. Surveys showed that the copper cathode rod operating rate this week was expected to pull back to 67.24%, down 2.13 percentage points WoW. Considering overall supply-demand performance, the current copper market exhibits characteristics of tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling boosting demand, and social inventory is expected to continue destocking in the short term.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during the night session yesterday, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably. Intraday purchasing sentiment pulled back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed some sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing certain support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption momentum weakened in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area. Available spot cargo in the east China market may increase going forward, posing potential downward pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW. The destocking pace slowed down significantly, indicating that current copper prices had weak appeal to downstream enterprises. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread between futures contracts structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further to around 250 yuan/mt, with the arbitrage window expanding further. The willingness to divert cargoes from east China to south China is expected to strengthen going forward, which is likely to redirect available cargoes from the Shanghai market and provide marginal support for local spot discounts. In addition, in the current Shanghai spot copper market, cargoes with invoices dated this month are relatively scarce on the trading side, with some suppliers opting to make shipments using cargoes with invoices dated next month. The price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month remained at 30-40 yuan/mt. Demand side, copper prices are currently moving sideways, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current copper prices may improve somewhat, with ordering willingness rebounding slightly, though purchases still mainly center on just-in-time procurement. Overall, driven by the combined effects of mild demand improvement, cross-regional arbitrage, and divergence in invoice structures, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,237/mt, touched a low of $13,213/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,330/mt and then began to fluctuate downward, ultimately closing at $13,245/mt, down 0.78%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 478 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,500 yuan/mt, quickly tested a high of 102,830 yuan/mt early in the session, then copper prices dropped sharply to a low of 102,280 yuan/mt, and subsequently fluctuated downward to ultimately close at 102,490 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with trading volume at 31,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, an increase of 2,351 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums remain under pressure. Demand side, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises saw a slight improvement in orders WoW, and end-user acceptance of current copper prices may have improved, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed a tendency to hold prices firm; meanwhile, some suppliers chose to lower offer prices for shipments to control inventory levels, leading to divergent market expectations for the outlook. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area decreased by 5,400 mt WoW from Thursday, while the Jiangsu area decreased by 6,700 mt, with the destocking pace continuing. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand recovery, support from the price spread structure between futures contracts, and some selling pressure, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

Recently, the center of copper prices continued to shift upward. The most-traded SHFE copper contract steadily climbed after hitting a periodic low of 91,500 yuan/mt on March 23, 2026, reaching a high of 103,130 yuan/mt as of April 15, representing a gain of 12.71% from low to high, with the latest closing price at 102,090 yuan/mt. The latest LME copper price stood at $13,262.5/mt. The interaction between macro sentiment and fundamentals jointly drove the market to hold up well. This round of copper price strength was not dominated by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, inventory changes, and seasonal consumption patterns. Regarding the core driving logic behind the current copper price strength, SMM will provide a detailed analysis from three dimensions: the contraction of SX-EW copper supply outside China, the macro perspective on the US dollar and geopolitical developments, and China's copper inventories and supply-demand pattern. The details are as follows: （I) Sulphuric Acid Export Restriction Policies Strengthened Expectations for SX-EW Copper Production Cuts, and Supply Contraction Supported Copper Prices Sulphuric acid prices have been rising continuously since March, mainly due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 50% of the world's seaborne sulphur volume, has been disrupted, leading to an overall tightening of global sulphur supply. In China's sulphuric acid production, approximately 40% comes from sulphur-based acid production and 40% from smelting acid. China is highly dependent on sulphur imports, and the tightness in raw material supply has provided certain support for domestic sulphuric acid prices. The DRC is the world's second-largest copper-producing country, with production highly dependent on sulphuric acid. According to SMM, producing 1 mt of copper cathode locally requires 2–6 mt of sulphuric acid. Based on an average of 4 mt, annual sulphuric acid consumption is approximately 10 million mt, of which more than half relies on imports from the Middle East. The Middle East is both a critical global energy transportation route and a core hub for sulphur trade. The current US-Iran conflict has lasted 46 days, and local smelter sulphuric acid inventory is at low levels. Coupled with China, as a major global sulphuric acid exporter, imposing export restrictions, ex-China sulphuric acid supply has tightened further. The sulphuric acid shortage has constrained SX-EW copper output to a certain extent, creating expectations of a contraction in global copper cathode supply and providing clear bullish support for copper prices. According to SMM, SX-EW copper production in the DRC and Zambia has been gradually suffering losses recently, especially at some smaller smelters. The originally projected SMM global copper cathode balance surplus for 2026 is expected to slow down YoY. Expectations of copper cathode supply losses have strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually shift from a loose balance to a tight balance. The tightening supply-side expectations are set to provide support for copper prices. II. Easing geopolitical tensions coupled with inflation pullback push the US dollar index lower, providing support for copper prices Earlier, the escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressures. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled somewhat, and the market gradually priced in unchanged interest rates for the full year. Recently, signs of easing emerged in the geopolitical conflict. Trump stated that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, with only the time and location yet to be determined. According to sources familiar with the matter, Iran is considering temporarily suspending shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, and the US military has no plan to attack Iranian oil tankers. On April 14, Trump publicly stated that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, with positive signals being gradually released, The pullback in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index provided some support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressures, leaving room for subsequent interest rate cuts, and sentiment improved somewhat. III. Social Inventory Declined for Five Consecutive Weeks; Combined with Peak Consumption Season and Maintenance Cycle, Tight Supply-Demand Conditions Supported Copper Prices After the Lantern Festival, copper prices gradually pulled back, downstream consumption recovered somewhat, and SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China continued to destock from mid-March. Recently, copper prices rebounded somewhat, downstream purchasing became more cautious, and the destocking pace slowed down. As of April 13, SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China had decreased from 578,900 mt on March 9, 2026 to 299,800 mt, maintaining destocking for five consecutive weeks. China is currently entering the traditional peak consumption season. Copper scrap policies still carry certain uncertainties, and the overall operating rate of scrap utilization enterprises remains relatively low, providing some support for copper cathode rod consumption. Meanwhile, global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, further tightening the supply side. The continued decline in inventory, combined with a tight supply-demand pattern, is providing some support for copper prices. Overall, the macro front and fundamentals are currently forming a degree of resonance, providing relatively positive support for copper prices. From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing, the US dollar index pulled back somewhat, and earlier inflationary pressures were alleviated to some extent. On the fundamentals side, tightening sulphuric acid supply constrained SX-EW copper output outside China, SMM China social inventory continued to decline, and combined with relatively strong domestic fundamentals, the supply-demand pattern showed a tightening trend. However, as copper prices rebounded above 100,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance weakened somewhat, and recent purchase willingness also turned slightly cautious. Going forward, it is worth watching whether actual demand performance during the traditional peak season can meet expectations against the backdrop of high copper prices.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper was closed due to Easter. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%; overnight, SHFE copper was closed due to the Qingming Festival. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at 96,250 yuan/mt, up 0.39%.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,286.5/mt and fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,212/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to $12,408/mt, before falling back again to finally close at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, an increase of 3,702 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,660 yuan/mt and dipped to 95,300 yuan/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to a high of 96,680 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 96,150 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, a decrease of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.