Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up slightly today. Although buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained weak overall. In the morning session, suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second session, prices were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting downstream users' limited acceptance of current copper prices and reluctance to chase higher prices. The inter-month Contango spread widened slightly but stayed in the range of around 100 yuan/mt, with suppliers showing relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to warrant outflows tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release, it will put pressure on spot premiums; if outflows are limited, then, supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today copper prices edged up. Buying and selling sentiment rebounded but remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt in early trading, but actual trading was sluggish. In the second session, quotes were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The Contango spread between monthly contracts widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, and suppliers showed relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the outflow of warrants tomorrow. If released in concentration, it will weigh on spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, then supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for further decline in the discount. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertain warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

In April 2026, China's copper cathode import and export market exhibited a clear pattern of "rising imports and falling exports.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday, LME copper opened at $13,609.5/mt, touched a high of $13,661.5/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted lower to $13,467.5/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at $13,544.5/mt, down 3.15%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 3,469 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,050 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,810 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly higher to touch 104,760 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,440 yuan/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots and open interest at 167,000 lots, a decrease of 3,793 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, intraday SHFE copper prices declined, and downstream orders saw a slight increase in volume. However, the current copper prices remain less attractive to end-users, with the volume increase being insignificant as the high-price suppression effect persists. According to SMM, end-user enterprises mostly placed orders around 102,000-103,000 yuan/mt. Some downstream enterprises have opted to shut down furnaces for maintenance due to high copper prices, reflecting the notable suppression of actual demand at current price levels. After the contract rollover, the market will officially price around the 2606 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, the current open interest of the SHFE copper 2605 contract stands at only 4,775 lots, with limited participation in delivery, so the concentrated release of warrants is expected to have relatively limited further pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a significant decline. However, if copper prices remain at current highs, the demand side will struggle to improve effectively, and spot discounts may come under pressure. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week.

[SMM Analysis] Copper prices have surged recently. On the surface, the current hot topics in the copper market are focused on the following areas: the widening LME-COMEX price spread, copper concentrate TCs hitting new lows again, the energy crisis in Peru, the repeated fluctuations in the pace of Grasberg's production resumptions, and the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap in China. However, from a deeper perspective, all these events can be understood under a single theme: the growing global emphasis on copper resource security, with the market repricing the entire industry chain.

SMM May 11 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, May 11, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased by 10,300 mt WoW from the post-holiday level to 242,600 mt, up 119,500 mt compared to the same period last year (123,100 mt). Specifically, Shanghai saw a rebound in imported copper arrivals, but domestic supply remained tight. Combined with steady downstream rigid demand release, regional inventory continued destocking. Jiangsu maintained stable domestic arrivals with normal warehouse withdrawal pace, and inventory continued to pull back. Guangdong saw balanced warehouse inflows and withdrawals, with limited overall inventory fluctuations. Market outlook: Supply side, short-term imported copper arrivals are expected to see limited increase, domestic supply remains constrained, and the overall tight supply pattern is unlikely to change in the near term. Demand side, copper price center is steadily shifting upward, downstream enterprises show weak stockpiling willingness, mostly restocking on an as-needed basis. Survey showed that copper cathode rod operating rate this week is expected to recover to 63.65%, up 3.07 percentage points WoW. Overall supply and demand performance suggests the current copper market features tight supply and demand recovering to normal levels, with social inventory expected to continue destocking in the near term.

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