June 24, 2026 The price of gold remains under short-term pressure following recent setbacks, but the broader bull market is far from over. For Jerry Prior, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager at the KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSE: KMLM), the current decline is primarily a healthy readjustment following overheated positioning. The true long-term drivers—above all, the global shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency—remain absolutely intact. Healthy Correction: Why the Fed Shock Is Cleaning Up the Market In recent weeks, the precious metal has come under noticeable selling pressure due to several concurrent factors. The Federal Reserve’s more restrictive stance under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, and the associated expectations of higher interest rates massively increased the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing gold. At the same time, immediate safe-haven demand eased due to a de-escalation in the Middle East, prompting speculative investors and systematic trend-following funds to engage in massive selling. However, it is precisely this sharp reduction in positions that has already removed the bulk of the downside risk from the market. According to the expert, the risk of panic selling driven by retail inflows has been virtually eliminated following this rigorous market correction. Even if prices were to slip temporarily below the psychologically important threshold of $4,000 per ounce, the focus would instead shift to the enormous potential in the period that follows. As soon as global oil markets stabilize again and new revenues flow into commodity-exporting countries, a massive return of central banks seeking to further build up their gold reserves is to be expected. The Catalyst: De-dollarization Fuels the Next Bull Run Structural de-dollarization remains the strongest argument for strategic gold positions. The increasing use of the U.S. dollar as a geopolitical lever—the so-called “weaponization of the dollar”—is forcing more and more countries to seek alternative stores of value beyond U.S. Treasury bonds. This trend is considered irreversible. Additional revenues from exporting nations are likely to be channeled directly into the gold market in the future, rather than being used to finance the U.S. deficit. This development is accompanied by a macroeconomic environment characterized by structurally higher inflation. The end of cheap globalization benefits from China, the resource-intensive restructuring of global supply chains, and the costly relocation of production facilities virtually guarantee that inflation will not permanently return to the extremely low pre-pandemic level. The recent correction is therefore not a harbinger of a long bear market, but merely a temporary pullback within a secular uptrend. For long-term commodity investors, this market movement is actually good news. Viewed in this light, the current pullback to historically significant support levels flushes speculative market participants out of the system and offers a healthy entry opportunity. Since the fundamental megatrends—from global de-dollarization to massive central bank purchases—remain absolutely intact, as many experts emphasize, the foundation for the next upward cycle could be taking shape here, initially heading toward the $4,500 mark. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-prices-remain-under-pressure-but-this-is-exactly-where-a-new-opportunity-could-lie

Today, SMM's 10:00 am Ag (T+D) price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 13,816 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks about Iran and Venezuela returning to the US dollar system further reinforced expectations for the dollar’s status as an international reserve currency. Combined with the market’s repricing of the Fed’s hawkish stance, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, exerting temporary pressure on precious metals. Major foreign investment banks all raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes in their latest reports, and precious metals faced interest rate headwinds, tumbling sharply. Spot market side, after silver continued to decline, downstream consumption recovered somewhat. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned toward the higher end, while downstream enterprises negotiated and purchased, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Some suppliers had limited willingness to sell at month-end. Low-priced supplies in other regions were largely cleared out, and quotes in Shenzhen were mostly around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against TD. Today, the market’s premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract remained at a discount of around 30 yuan/kg. Overall, the spot silver market premium has been relatively stable recently, and transactions have recovered somewhat as absolute prices continued to decline. The precious metals futures remain under macro pressure in the short term.

Published: Jun 19, 2026 - 11:15 PM (Kitco News) - The Federal Reserve’s new tightening bias continues to take its toll on the gold market, with a growing number of analysts expecting prices to retest support near $4,000 an ounce. However, one bank has a simple suggestion for investors: “buy the dip.” Heading into the third quarter, market strategists at Société Générale updated their Multi-Asset Portfolio and recommended that investors remain long equities and commodities, as they expect central banks to remain behind the inflation curve. They said that, in this environment, investors need inflation protection. “We return to a full weighting in gold, taking advantage of the recent drawdown. Looking ahead, gold volatility may decline if retail participation—particularly through ETFs—eases off, while central banks are likely to remain active buyers, particularly as part of their ongoing de-dollarisation drive and as institutions diversify further away from equities and bonds,” the analysts said. For the third quarter, the French bank has a 10% allocation to gold, up from 7% in the second quarter. At the same time, SocGen is increasing its broader commodity exposure to 10% from 8%. “Electrification, AI, and sovereignty trends support the BCOM Index, with a bias toward industrial metals and energy,” the analysts said. The bank said its total 20% commodity exposure is the largest on record. Looking at the gold market, despite the current selling pressure, SocGen sees gold prices recovering in the fourth quarter of this year and climbing back to $5,000 an ounce by the second quarter of 2027, with the potential to reach new record highs in the third quarter of next year. The gold market has seen renewed selling pressure this week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in a range between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, in its updated economic projections, the central bank signaled support for a potential rate hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the central bank’s hawkish bias, emphasizing its focus on price stability. However, the analysts at SocGen are not convinced that the Fed will actually pull the trigger on a rate hike. “Policymakers have effectively adjusted to a new equilibrium featuring higher growth alongside a higher inflation risk. This shift is reinforced by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will move behind the curve, refraining from raising rates by year-end and even cutting next year. This implies inflation protection is more important than ever,” the analysts said. Despite potential downside risks to gold, SocGen said that the core pillars of its bull case—persistent currency erosion, worsening fiscal policy, and fracturing geopolitics—remain unchanged. Along with their increased commodity exposure, the analysts are also increasing their equity holdings to 55% of the portfolio, up from 50% in the second quarter. The bank is also increasing its exposure to inflation-protected securities, with a focus on U.S. and eurozone bonds. SocGen is also increasing its exposure to high-yield corporate debt. The bank said it will hold no cash in the third quarter. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/gold-prices-are-down-socgen-buying-dip

June 17, 2026 Despite a sharp 26 percent drop in prices during the Iran conflict, Barclays believes the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact. The British bank attributes the recent slump to temporary market forces, while structural price drivers such as inflation and central bank purchases persist. Temporary Factors Overshadow Safe-Haven Role Between January and June, gold lost massive value—an unusual pattern, as geopolitical crises typically boost demand for safe havens. According to Barclays’ Cross-Asset Research Team, however, this role was overshadowed by massive macroeconomic headwinds. A strong U.S. dollar and rising real interest rates weighed heavily on the precious metal, as the market quickly priced out the Federal Reserve’s previously anticipated interest rate cuts. At the same time, the rally in the stock markets—fueled by a roughly 10 percent rise in the S&P 500—tied up considerable risk capital. According to Barclays, however, these factors explain only part of the price decline. The greatest downward momentum stemmed from the massive unwinding of leveraged gold positions, which was further accelerated by simultaneous sales by the Russian and Turkish central banks . Investors were driven by higher yields, causing short-term capital flows to dictate prices. Structural Drivers Justify Premium Analysts, however, view these headwinds as temporary. With the foreseeable easing of tensions in the Middle East, fundamental price drivers are likely to regain the upper hand. These include persistent inflationary pressure, monetary policy uncertainties, and the continued diversification of government currency reserves. Barclays quantifies this effect clearly: historically, every additional percentage point of inflation increases the price of gold by about five percent. The bank currently estimates the fair value of the precious metal at $4,150 per ounce and anticipates a reversal in the near future. This is contingent on the U.S. dollar resuming its long-term downward trend and central banks returning to sustained gold purchases. Forecast Confirmed: Winners in the Mining Sector Accordingly, Barclays is sticking to its ambitious price targets: The bank expects the gold price to reach $4,791 per ounce by 2026, rising to $4,900 by the end of 2027. However, the bank does not rule out short-term price fluctuations until the trend ultimately reverses. According to analysts’ estimates, established gold producers such as Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle are likely to benefit most from this bullish scenario. The key question for the sector now is whether the expected recovery in the gold price will quickly translate into higher profit margins. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-analysts-expect-a-rebound-to-nearly-usd4-800

According to official cross-border logistics manifests processed by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, the country’s primary steelmaking sector successfully expanded its international outbound shipments, increasing its exports of semi-finished steel products by 41.6% month-on-month for the month of May. Total outbound distributions of raw steel square billets and heavy slabs reached 154,630 metric tons, representing a robust 25% expansion compared to the exact same calendar period in the prior year. Regional trade analysts noted that Ukrainian producers are aggressively liquidating upstream steel backlogs into nearby European re-rolling hubs to capture critical hard-currency inflows.

[SMM Analysis: LME Copper Prices Fluctuate at Highs; Procurement Slows Across China, Japan, and South Korea Amid Flat Market Turnover]This week, LME copper prices fluctuated at high levels. Quotations for bare bright copper held high at 98.5%–99% payability. In contrast, offers for No. 2 ccopper material scrap(Birch/Cliff) showed distinct divergence. However the global recycled raw material market currently exhibits a gridlock defined by "weak supply and demand."

SMM, June 18: Metals markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 0.66%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.27%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 2.46%. SHFE nickel fell 0.38%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged lower, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.28%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 4.88%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.98%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.26%, rebar fell 1.04%, HRC fell 0.89%, and stainless steel fell 0.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.26%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 4.21%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:45, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.06%, LME aluminum and LME lead fell nearly 1%. LME zinc fell 1.12%, LME tin fell 2.7%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold fell 0.94%, and COMEX silver fell 2.17%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.85%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.63%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.88%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures (European route) rose 1.13% to 3,742.5 points. As of June 18, 11:45, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: The mainstream brand 0# zinc traded around 24,680-24,790 yuan/mt in the Ningbo market. Ningbo regular brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, and at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargoes. The mainstream in Ningbo was quoted against the 2607 contract... Macro front Domestic side: [Five Departments: Launch of 2026 NEV Promotion Campaign in Rural Areas] The General Offices (Comprehensive Departments) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and three other departments are launching the 2026 NEV promotion campaign in rural areas, deepening the auto trade-in program in villages. Within the NEV rural promotion campaign, a trade-in special section will be set up to publicize and promote subsidy policies, and provide "one-stop" services such as old vehicle inspection, evaluation and recycling, and assistance with subsidy applications, to further increase policy awareness and coverage and facilitate rural consumers' participation and access to subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in old cars for NEVs can apply for auto trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, without any limit on the number of subsidy qualifications. [NDRC: to Strengthen Coordinated Planning of Computing Power Network, New-Type Power Grid, and New-Generation Communication Network During 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, greater emphasis will be placed on supply-demand matching and coordinated planning and construction of the computing power network, new-type power grid, and new-generation communication network. On the "hard investment" front, more effective computing-electricity synergy models will be explored to strengthen computing with electricity and promote electricity with computing; computing-network integration innovation will be enhanced, and direct connection lines between national hubs will be appropriately expanded to further reduce network transmission latency. On the "soft development" front, the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources will be strengthened, and the construction of a nationwide integrated computing power network that is interconnected, universally accessible and easy to use, green, and secure will be accelerated. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS to Launch Optimized Foreign Currency Repo Service from June 22] The Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Clearing House) and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) issued a notice stating that to further optimize foreign currency repo trading and clearing services and meet market participants' needs for collateral management and diversified settlement methods, Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. During the term of a foreign currency pledged repo transaction, both parties may initiate substitution of pledged bonds for trades not yet due for settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system or the CFETS foreign exchange trading system, subject to counterparty confirmation. Prior to the settlement date, both parties may initiate cash settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system, and Shanghai Clearing House will complete the buyout repo maturity settlement based on the cash settlement instruction. The specific launch arrangements by CFETS will be announced separately. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Inject 59.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 188.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 100.24. US Fed officials hinted on Wednesday that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking amid rapidly climbing inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that the pullback in energy prices may offer some relief in the coming months. However, he cautioned that the interest rate outlook has already decoupled from oil prices, which indicates deeper uncertainty over whether underlying inflation will cool enough to spare the US Fed from having to hike rates eventually. Beyond energy, Guha noted, two pressures remain: the ongoing pass-through from tariffs and cost spillovers from the investment boom in AI infrastructure. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, said conditions that would normally prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—namely an overheated labour market or unanchored inflation expectations—have yet to be seen. But she acknowledged that the case for action is building. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be ready to step in and hike if things worsen,” she said, adding that the Fed could move more swiftly than during the pandemic-era inflation surge because “they are already having that debate now.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady through July stands at 64.0% (versus 91.0% before the decision), with a 35.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike (versus 8.9%) and a 1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike (versus 0%). For the year-end, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.2% (versus 38.2%), while the odds of cumulative hikes stand at 25bp (36.4%, versus 43.0%), 50bp (33.8%, versus 16.2%), 75bp (13.5%, versus 2.4%), and 100bp (2.1%, versus 0.1%). Citi expects the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts in October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, shifting from its previous forecast of cuts in September, October, and December this year. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed may need to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated. “If the inflation data do not cool between now and September, it would be wise for the Fed to act in September or in the autumn. That would be the more prudent course,” Kaplan said. Markets turned hawkish after Fed Chairman Walsh signalled that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation. Traders dumped short-term Treasuries, pushing some yields higher. Walsh’s remarks were reinforced by the personal projections of Fed members, half of whom pencilled in rate hikes by the end of 2026. Kaplan stated that if inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that monetary policy is still too loose. He also pointed out, “Fed policy actions are rarely one-offs; rate hikes often come in series of two or three. So I think if you’re going to act in September, you need to be prepared. There may be one or two more.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data Releases: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US May Conference Board leading index month-on-month change, Switzerland’s May trade balance, the Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18, the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, the UK May unemployment rate, the UK May claimant count change, the UK Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, and the eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China’s refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. The Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will release its rate decision and meeting minutes. It is worth noting that on June 18, China’s SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. CME Group’s precious metals, energy, forex, equity indexes, and US Treasury futures contracts trading will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday, while ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract trading will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.82% and Brent down 1.48%. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday, declaring an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A US official stated that the agreement had officially taken effect, but it remained unclear whether Iran had immediately taken steps to fully reopen the strait. "Trump's signing of the MOU after the G7 meeting is another important step in the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz," said Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, "This will further compress energy risk premiums, ease inflation concerns, and provide support for bond and equity markets after the Fed's initial reaction." (Wall Street CN) An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: Iran must be able to sell its oil smoothly, with no obstacles in transportation and insurance, and must receive the proceeds from oil sales. Jinshi Data APP) According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels last week, compared with estimates of a 5.2 million barrel decline by Bloomberg users and a 3.6918 million barrel draw by analysts, following a 7.227 million barrel drop the prior week. Inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma have declined for eight consecutive weeks to around 20 million barrels, a level that most traders consider the operational minimum. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell this week to about 340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 2:00 PM (Kitco News) - Central bank demand has been a solid pillar of support for the gold market as prices pushed to all-time highs at the start of the year. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, official-sector demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future. The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves. The survey comes at a historic moment for the precious metal. The WGC noted that gold recently surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset, underscoring a dramatic shift in how official institutions are managing their wealth. In an interview with Kitco News, Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said the survey demonstrates that official-sector confidence in gold remains exceptionally strong. "Central banks are still very positive on gold. In fact, more positive than ever," Fan said, noting that the percentage of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves rose to a record 45% this year from 43% in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The survey itself suggests that central bankers increasingly view gold as a strategic monetary asset rather than a passive legacy holding. Eighty-four percent of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of global reserves within five years, while 74% expect the U.S. dollar's share of reserves to decline over the same period. The findings reinforce a trend that has transformed reserve management over the last decade. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the last four years, double the pace seen during the previous decade. Fan said one of the most notable developments is that interest in gold is spreading across a broader group of central banks. "We're seeing newer central banks starting to emerge," he said, pointing to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Guatemala, and El Salvador that have recently entered the market or resumed purchases after years of inactivity. "The base on which central banks are buying is expanding." While emerging-market central banks remain the dominant buyers, Fan noted that interest is no longer confined to developing economies. The survey showed that 18% of advanced-economy central banks also expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. Fan said central banks are increasingly discussing gold internally as reserve managers evaluate how best to diversify their portfolios amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. "The number of conversations that we've been having over the past one or two years has definitely picked up," he said. "More central banks are approaching us, new central banks are approaching us." The survey found that reserve diversification remains the primary reason for buying gold, followed by the need for a stronger hedge against economic risks and concerns surrounding reserve-currency economies. Thirty-one of the 34 central banks planning to increase gold reserves cited diversification as a key motivation. The survey shows that reserve managers also continue to value gold's traditional monetary characteristics. A record 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during times of crisis as a major reason for holding the metal, while 84% pointed to its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, and 83% highlighted its diversification benefits. Fan said those responses were particularly striking because they came during the latest conflict in the Middle East. "The most relevant factor this year was gold's performance during times of crisis," he said. "If anything, it's even more relevant than before." He added that recent geopolitical tensions have not changed central banks' long-term assessment of the metal. "Central banks are valuing more than ever gold's performance during times of crisis, gold's role as a long-term store of value, gold as a portfolio diversifier, gold being able to be a geopolitical hedge," Fan said. The growing importance of gold is also reflected in participation levels. This year's survey attracted 76 responses, the highest on record and up from 73 last year. Fan said the growing response rate is itself evidence that gold is becoming increasingly important within the official sector. "That fact alone points out that gold is much more relevant, much more front and center as a topic among central banks," he said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/record-45-central-banks-plan-increase-gold-holdings-wgc-survey-finds

June 11, 2026 The price of gold fell by more than three percent yesterday, Wednesday. Instead of benefiting from the military escalation between the U.S. and Iran as a safe-haven asset, the precious metal came under pressure. This is because the market currently views the conflict in the Middle East primarily as an inflationary factor with direct implications for U.S. monetary policy. While military conflicts in the Middle East traditionally boost demand for gold, the impact on the energy market currently outweighs this effect. Iran responded to U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz with counterattacks on U.S. bases. As a result, crude oil prices rose further, fueling general price pressures. Instead of speculating on interest rate cuts, the market is now betting on a more restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Since rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of interest-free gold, this factor overshadows the classic safe-haven appeal. Gold: Expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike this year weigh on the market Market expectations have shifted noticeably: A probability of just under 67 percent for an interest rate hike in December is now priced in. Although the latest US consumer price data —with a 0.2 percent rise in the core rate in May—was more moderate than in the previous month, this did little to alter the underlying restrictive trend. Particular attention is now focused on the US producer price index, as higher energy costs are reflected there particularly early on. Technically, the price decline has clouded the chart picture, as gold has broken below the trading range established since late March. The closing price near the daily low signals ongoing short-term weakness. Structural pillars for gold remain intact Despite this interest-rate-driven consolidation, the structural pillars supporting the precious metal remain intact. Many observers agree that, in the long term, central banks’ continued gold purchases, growing global government debt, and concerns about currency stability continue to serve as a robust fundamental foundation. Inflation thus has a dual effect: while it weighs on the interest rate outlook in the short term, it reinforces gold’s role as a monetary asset in the long term. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-stuerzt-weiter-ab-zinsangst-schlaegt-sicheren-hafen

SMM, June 15: Metal markets: Last Friday’s overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in and outside China, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains, rising 2.19%. LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin and SHFE zinc all gained over 1%: LME copper rose 1.02%, LME zinc rose 1.63%, LME tin rose 1.75% and SHFE zinc rose 1.48%, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. In addition, the alumina main contract rose 0.86% and the foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.45%. Last Friday’s overnight session for ferrous metals saw rises across the board except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%. Rebar rose 0.44% and HRC rose 0.59%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw precious metals rebound collectively. COMEX gold rose 3.06% and COMEX silver rose 6.44%. However, due to notable earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. COMEX silver recorded a weekly loss of 1.42%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.30% and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. SHFE gold posted a weekly loss of 6.79%, also marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. SHFE silver plummeted 10.14% for the week, also marking a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued an announcement, stating that global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy are currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the influence of multiple factors, price fluctuations of precious metals in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metals-related businesses—such as accumulated gold, accumulated interest gold, account precious metals, two-way account precious metals, and agency services for individual Shanghai Gold Exchange operations—the bank specifically reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance, reasonably control your precious metals positions, mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, and prevent the risk of capital losses caused by market volatility. As of 8:31 a.m. on June 13, the closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session are as follows: Macro front Domestic front: [PBoC: In the first five months, aggregate social financing rose by 1.748 trillion yuan; new loans stood at 911 billion yuan; May M2 increased 8.6% YoY] PBoC’s preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the aggregate social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy rose by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decline of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign currency loans extended to the real economy, converted into RMB, rose by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans rose by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decline in growth of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing from corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing from government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic stock financing by non-financial enterprises was 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 9.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans up 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing up 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. PBOC data showed that at end-May, broad money (M2) stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) totaled 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) reached 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 590.7 billion yuan. According to the PBOC website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate-based tender and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. US dollar: As of the overnight close last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 99.79, posting a weekly decline of 0.28%, with markets closely watching US-Iran peace talks. Multiple US media reported on the 12th that a senior US administration official said that day the US side is “80% to 85%” confident of signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran within the coming days. The official also expressed confidence that Israel would support this US-Iran MoU. According to CNN, CBS and others, the official said on a press conference call, “We are not yet fully at the finish line, but we are very close.” The official noted that the specific venue and date for signing the MoU have not been determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua) Iranian media reported on the 12th that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that once the final stage of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed electronically remotely, “possibly within the next few days.” (Xinhua) HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below levels implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They said the dollar’s reaction has been relatively limited as market expectations recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate hikes. They believe this may reflect loose financial conditions in the US and hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They stated that the dollar requires clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at this week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble." (Jin10 Data App) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but see a more than 50% probability of a hike before year-end. Market pricing dialed back slightly after Thursday’s comments from Trump on a potential deal. In other currencies: ING analyst Chris Turner noted that for the EUR/USD exchange rate, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may matter more than the ECB’s Thursday rate hike decision. The ECB has signaled further tightening, with markets speculating about another hike in July. However, he stated that because the market has already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and is reluctant to push that expectation higher, EUR/USD remains below 1.16. Moreover, markets see a possible Fed hike later this year. He indicated that unless the Fed pushes back against this expectation at its Wednesday meeting, the dollar should stay firm. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: This week, from China, the data to be released include China’s May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, May share of Swift RMB in global payments, May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), and May total electricity consumption (TBD). From the US, releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) as of June 17, June NY Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production MoM, June NAHB housing market index, weekly change in ADP employment as of May 30, May housing starts annualized, May building permits total, May import price index MoM, May retail sales MoM, April business inventories MoM, May pending home sales index MoM, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and May Conference Board leading index MoM. From the UK, releases will include May CPI MoM, May retail price index MoM, April three-month ILO unemployment rate, May unemployment rate, May claimant count change, Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, June GfK consumer confidence index, and May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. From the eurozone, releases will include April seasonally adjusted trade balance, April industrial production MoM, June ZEW economic sentiment index, May final CPI YoY, May final CPI MoM, and April seasonally adjusted current account. From Switzerland, releases will include the May consumer confidence index, May trade balance, and Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18. From Japan, releases will include the Bank of Japan target rate as of June 16 and May core CPI YoY. From Canada, releases will include April wholesale sales MoM and April retail sales MoM. Germany’s June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany’s May PPI MoM, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as of June 16 will also be published. Additionally, on June 15, China will see the maturity of 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in six-month outright reverse repos, the National Energy Administration is set to release data on nationwide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (tentative), and China's refined oil products will enter a new pricing window. On June 18, the US Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Block will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and minutes. The G7 Summit will open, running until June 17. In the Crude Oil Market: Last Friday, oil prices fell overnight in both markets, with US crude dropping 3.9% and Brent crude dropping 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to rise, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also declined, with US crude down 6.9% and Brent crude down 6.76%. In early trading in the US stock market, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamabad memorandum of understanding has never been this close to being reached, causing oil prices to plunge and US stock indices to extend intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the two sides have now reached an understanding on most issues, and Iran is in the final stages of consolidating the MOU text. At midday in the US stock market, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif Shehbaz said the final agreed peace agreement text has been completed, and the two countries are moving forward to implement the next steps. Oil prices continued to decline. During the session, US stocks briefly fell after Trump criticized Iran for leaking agreement terms, but then Wall Street News mentioned that the UAE has agreed to unlock large-scale funds to Iran, with the first tranche of about $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street News) US Energy Secretary Wright stated that currently about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that accounts for about half of the stranded cargo when the Iran conflict first erupted. Wright said that no Iranian crude can currently be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products will be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transportation along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright said that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and this proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is currently not exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Triggered by the most severe supply disruption on record from the Iran conflict, US emergency stockpile crude exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to overseas markets so far this year. This volume has already surpassed the previous record set four years ago. Although exports of crude from the US emergency stockpile are not uncommon, the scale of shipments this year shows that, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to weather the crisis. For every three barrels of crude released from the emergency stockpile, roughly one barrel is exported. The volume headed overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration continues to release the full promised 172 million barrels of crude. This is part of a larger effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help buffer the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wallstreetcn)