Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 84,640 yuan/mt. In early trading, the center of copper prices bottomed at 84,620 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 86,140 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 86,020 yuan/mt, up 1.68%. Open interest stood at 6,205 lots, down 74 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,289 lots, up 991 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the Iranian president said he was willing to end the war, provided that its demands were met and guarantees against further attacks were secured. The US defense secretary said the next few days would determine the direction of the conflict, and Trump planned to end the fighting within two to three weeks; meanwhile, the Iranian foreign minister said there had been no negotiations with the US, though information had been exchanged, and there had been no response yet to the "15-point plan." The current Middle East conflict has somewhat eased, crude oil prices plunged, inflation expectations cooled, and the US dollar index came under pressure and pulled back, all of which were bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, and overall spot availability was relatively ample; demand side, affected by the rebound in copper prices, the market mainly maintained just-in-time procurement during the day. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 97,030 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 86,020 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 97,203 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -173 yuan/mt, with the inversion maintained and widening from the previous day.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Initial Signs of Geopolitical Peace Emerge, SHFE Tin Prices Rebound Amid Improved Market Sentiment]

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,216/mt and dipped to $12,181.5/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward in center and, near the close, touched a high of $12,420/mt, finally closing at $12,382.5/mt, up 1.64%. Trading volume reached 18,800 lots, and open interest stood at 298,900 lots, an increase of 3,875 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,730 yuan/mt and fluctuated rangebound in early trading, hitting a low of 95,550 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated upward all the way to a high of 96,780 yuan/mt, finally closing at 96,760 yuan/mt, up 1.26%. Trading volume reached 56,200 lots, and open interest stood at 186,300 lots, an increase of 598 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by increased long positions.

Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

According to SMM, the cost side of the enamelled wire industry has remained under pressure recently. Driven by rising crude oil prices, insulating varnish prices increased by more than 20%, leaving enamelled wire enterprises facing a sharp rise in raw material costs that was difficult to pass on to downstream customers, further squeezing profit margins.

SMM's data was released with production fluctuating rangebound. HRC social inventory (large sample) stood at 5.5229 million mt, down 36,200 mt WoW, or down 0.65% WoW, and up 21.22% YoY on a lunar-calendar basis. Nationwide social inventory as a whole maintained a destocking trend, but by region, apart from continued inventory declines in South China and North China, inventories in other markets all increased. Meanwhile, traders maintained a moderate pace of purchase, and mill inventory turned from increase to decline. Total inventory stood at 6.7821 million mt, down 89,100 mt WoW. Looking ahead, the cost-side logic weakened due to falling crude oil prices and easing iron ore supply disruptions, and coil prices were expected to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations.

SMM Flash: Overall, steel export quotations saw relatively small increases today, with most order shipment schedules concentrated in May and June. Recently, as international crude oil prices continued to rise, ocean freight rates increased sharply, and most traders' CIF quotations were too high to secure deals. Meanwhile, according to an SMM survey, taking the Vietnamese market as an example, the CIF prices of supplies from India, Russia, and other sources also rose significantly, and their advantage over local supplies was no longer prominent, resulting in low market acceptance.

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......