[Full-Scale US-Iran War Risks Climb, Strengthening Short-Term Upward Drivers for Aluminum Prices] Overall assessment suggests that with the volatile Middle East situation, persistent market concerns over interest rate hikes, and continuously recovering supply, the destocking trend will be hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East, the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and the status of China’s downstream processing orders.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Alloy Futures Narrowly Rebounded, Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues in Off-Season] On Tuesday, the ADC12 market remained in the doldrums, with the quotation center edging slightly lower. Fundamentally, the pullback in aluminum prices weakened cost support; meanwhile, the off-season effect continued to intensify, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions were sluggish.

On July 15, at the , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., co-organized by Guangxi Dasheng Power Equipment Co., Ltd., and strongly supported by Solarabic, a Middle Eastern new energy industry media, and the Guangdong Province Industrial and Trade Development Promotion Association, Shenzhen Bendakang Cable Co., Ltd. Chairman Hou Shaofan shared insights on “Copper Spot and Futures Price Fluctuations and the Status Quo of the Wire and Cable Industry”. Macro Insights: Global and Regional Copper Consumption Patterns 2026 Global and China Copper Consumption Overview ► Global copper cathode consumption grows mildly, supply-demand pattern tightens Global copper cathode consumption is expected to reach around 25 million mt in 2026, up 1.6% YoY. NEVs, PV and wind power, and AI computing centers become core drivers. The market will see a supply deficit, with ore supply tightness persisting. ► China's copper consumption leads the globe, driven by emerging fields China accounts for half of global copper consumption. Its apparent consumption is set to exceed 13 million mt in 2026, up around 2% YoY, leading the world. Power grid investment, new energy, and AI data centers are the core drivers. Demand in emerging sectors is robust, while growth in traditional sectors is slowing down. South China: A Growth Pole Driven by Export-Oriented and Emerging Momentum South China, especially Guangdong Province, as one of the core engines of China's manufacturing, exhibits a distinct "export-oriented" and "emerging momentum-driven" copper consumption structure. It closely relies on downstream industries such as electronic information and NEVs, with a notable export orientation, making it a key growth pole for domestic copper consumption. Regional Pattern: An Analysis of the Industrial Gap Between South China and East China North-South Industrial Divergence: Five Core Gaps Between South China and East China's Wire and Cable Industries ► In-depth Analysis of Regional Industrial Development Models and Core Competitiveness From five dimensions – enterprise structure, risk management, industry chain support, client resources, and industry ecosystem – the current development status of the wire and cable industries in the two regions is compared, revealing the underlying logic and development pain points behind the industrial divergence. Industry Growing Pains: In-depth Analysis of Three Core Pain Points Pain Point 1: Party A's "Imposed Terms" – Imbalanced Bargaining Power 01 Excessively long payment cycles; 02 "Back-to-back" payment terms shifting risk; 03 High security deposits squeezing capital; 04 Fixed prices disregarding cost fluctuations. Pain Point 2: Wild Swings in Copper Prices – The Risk of "High-Cost In, Low-Price Out" Losses 01 Two-way risk: both sharp rises and falls put pressure on; 02 Transmission lag: the core crux of losses; 03 Breakthrough solution: using financial instruments to build a solid defense. Pain Point Three: Industry Price Involution — the Meager Profit Dilemma of Being "Cheaper than Vermicelli" ►01 Fierce Price War: Survival Struggle in the Quagmire of Meager Profits The industry presents a pattern of “big industry, small enterprises,” with CR10 below 12%, over 90% being small and medium-sized enterprises, and the market highly fragmented. The price war in the low and mid-end cable sector is intensifying, even giving rise to the industry joke of being “cheaper than vermicelli,” directly resulting in the industry’s average net profit margin falling below 3%. Small and medium-sized enterprises are trapped in a survival dilemma with meager profits, or even negative profits. ►02 Vicious Cycle: The Industry Paradox of Bad Money Driving Out Good Low-price competition forces some enterprises to cut corners, causing product quality and safety risks. More seriously, substandard cable products directly threaten public property safety and even pose significant risks to the lives of the public. Entrepreneurs (this great group of people) who originally immersed themselves in industry with a craftsman’s spirit and aspired to contribute to social and economic development, once they breach the quality bottom line in the low-price involution, not only harm users and society but ultimately violate the law, end up imprisoned, and cause an irreparable tragedy. Meager profits prevent enterprises from investing in R&D and innovation, trapping them in a vicious cycle of “low price—low quality—even lower profits.” Meanwhile, the industry’s low-end capacity is severely surplus, while the high-end market has long been dominated by foreign brands, with technical barriers difficult to overcome. Future Outlook: Industry Chain Synergy and Development Trends Grasp the Industry Pulse · Co-Build a Synergistic Ecosystem · Open a New Chapter of Cooperation Based on the new stage of industrial development, we start from three dimensions—trend analysis, synergistic co-construction, and cooperation opportunities—to analyze the future direction of the copper wire and cable industry. The aim is to build industry consensus, promote deep integration of the upstream and downstream, and through institutional innovation and resource integration, build a safe, stable, and win-win new pattern of industrial development. 01 Industry Trends: Growth and Standardization Demand side benefits from the dual drivers of new energy and new infrastructure, with market growth continuously released; risk control side sees derivative tools becoming standard, with bare position models gradually phased out; the industry landscape is accelerating toward concentration among large-scale, compliant leading enterprises, with the Matthew effect prominent. 02 Synergy Initiatives: Shared Responsibility and Joint Governance We advocate for the industry-wide adoption of a copper price-linked adjustment mechanism to share price fluctuation risks; collaborate with financial institutions to promote the “option hedging + performance guarantee” model to build operational defenses; establish an industry alliance to unify pricing floors, resist low-price involution, and share risk control and market resources. 03 Cooperation Invitation: Openness and Win-Win Provide stable batch supply of national standard cables for PV, power grid, and new energy supporting applications; connect with professional institutions to offer copper option price insurance consulting and financial guarantee services; sincerely invite copper enterprises, financial institutions, and EPC contractors to engage in long-term strategic joint ventures to jointly create industry value. In addition, they shared the breakthrough path: Bendakang practical cases and solutions from such perspectives as Bendakang Cable—from scale leadership to value guidance; financial innovation practice: the "option price protection" policy, empowering industry chain win-win; practical reference: Bendakang's combined strategy of "option price protection + performance bond"; innovation engine: a high-end and intelligent product matrix; smart manufacturing upgrade: digitally driven lean production practice, etc.

On July 14, China Northern Rare Earth's stock price rose. As of the close on July 14, it was up 2.18% to 39.83 yuan per share. In market news, China Northern Rare Earth released its semi-annual earnings forecast, showing: Based on preliminary estimates by the company's financial department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for H1 2026 is expected to be between 1.98 billion and 2.06 billion yuan, representing an increase of 1.05 billion to 1.13 billion yuan compared with the same period last year (as per statutory disclosure data), up 112.74% to 121.33% YoY. Excluding non-recurring items, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for H1 2026 is expected to be between 1.99 billion and 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of 1.093 billion to 1.173 billion yuan YoY, up 121.90% to 130.82%. The main reasons for the expected profit increase in the period are: In H1 2026, the company served the national rare earth resource strategy and fully implemented the requirements for safety control of the rare earth industry chain. Affected by factors such as supply constraints on the raw material side and the release and sustained growth of downstream demand at multiple points, rare earth product prices generally strengthened and consolidated. The company focused on its annual production and operation targets, carried out integrated planning and comprehensive measures, strengthened comprehensive budget management, and worked on cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency gains in a coordinated manner. It scientifically organized production scheduling, intensified marketing operations, deepened reform and innovation, and strengthened group management and risk control. The company advanced the deep integration of professional management, lean management, and 5S management to a high standard, promoted key project construction, and accelerated the development of new quality productive forces through management and R&D innovation. With strong value creation capabilities across the industry chain and core competitiveness, the company provided solid support and assurance for achieving good operating results. The company refined the organization and operation of production scientifically, with production volumes of rare earth smelting and separation products, rare earth metal products, and new rare earth materials all reaching historical highs for the same period; the subsidiary Inner Mongolia Northern Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in H1, up about 107% YoY, maintaining growth for three consecutive years; the subsidiary Inner Mongolia Xi'ao Ke Hydrogen Storage Alloy Co., Ltd. officially put its first batch of 1,000 hydrogen-powered two-wheelers into operation in Baotou, with a cumulative safe driving mileage of 170,000 kilometers, demonstrating notable project success. The company persisted in benchmarking against internal and external excellence, tapping into internal potential, and strengthening refined management, leading to significant improvements in multiple economic and technical indicators. Targeted measures were adopted for each business segment: In smelting and separation, the division overcame new cost changes brought by rising prices of raw and auxiliary materials, effectively managed cost fluctuations, scientifically organized production scheduling, and ensured new product supply demands. In rare earth metals, leveraging the concept of lean production as a starting point, digital and intelligent methods were further used to strengthen on-site process operation management, driving new breakthroughs in economic and technical indicators such as quality and material ratios. In new rare earth materials and applications, the segment fully utilized newly added capacity advantages, precisely aligned with client needs, and made new progress in promoting sales through production. Deepening industry chain synergy, the Company solidified the foundation of downstream client cooperation while ensuring stable product supply. The Company closely tracked market demand, strengthened marketing management, optimized sales structure, client credit evaluation, and product account period management, adjusted and shortened account periods by category, secured the fundamental base with long-term agreement orders, and met differentiated market demand through retail. Sales of rare earth metals and magnetic materials rose steadily, achieving full coverage of top-tier magnetic material players; sales of lanthanum-cerium products increased YoY, further digesting historical inventory; sales of polishing materials increased YoY; 5 new equipment items and 20 customized and distinctive new products were developed, continuously expanding product application scenarios. Key project construction advanced efficiently, continuously enhancing intelligence and informatization levels. The first phase of the rare earth green smelting upgrade and transformation project has been put into production, with the entire production line connected; the second phase construction is progressing in an orderly manner. Projects across the industry chain, including mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, joint ventures, cooperation, and capacity expansion and production increase for rare earth metals, magnetic material alloys, magnets, and secondary resource utilization, are accelerating toward implementation. The secondary resource utilization project achieved volume increase and quality and efficiency improvement; the Company accelerated its pace of digital and intelligent transformation, with digitalization and intelligence levels continuously improving. Regarding the 2026 operating plan, China Northern Rare Earth announced in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan and a crucial year for the Company to advance high-quality development and accelerate the building of a world-class rare earth leader. The Company will uphold Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as its guide, take fostering a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation as the main theme, fully implement the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress and all previous plenary sessions of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and translate into action the important speeches and instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping on Inner Mongolia and the rare earth industry, as well as the decisions and plans of higher-level authorities such as the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Baotou City. Adhering to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, the Company will fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, bravely shoulder its responsibilities and missions, steadily improve the quality and efficiency of operations, build an industry system covering all elements and categories, promote the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, accelerate the pace of deepening reforms, enhance modern governance capabilities, continuously strengthen core functions and enhance core competitiveness, accelerate the realization of a world-class rare earth leader, ensure a good start and solid beginning for the 15th Five-Year Plan, and make new and greater contributions to the construction of the "Two Rare Earth Bases." The main production and operation targets for 2026 (these targets are merely planned objectives, and there is uncertainty as to whether they can ultimately be achieved. They do not constitute a substantive commitment by the Company to investors. Investors and relevant parties should maintain sufficient risk awareness and understand the differences between plans, forecasts, and commitments): achieve operating revenue of 44 billion yuan or more, and total profit of 3.5 billion yuan or more. While achieving operational targets, employee compensation is linked to enterprise economic performance and labor productivity in the same direction. Looking back at the price trend of Pr-Nd oxide in H1, SMM data show that it started the year at 609,000 yuan/mt, then hit a H1 high of 890,000 yuan/mt by the month-end of February, marking a cumulative increase of up to 46.7% from the beginning of the year. The core driver came from the supply side: spot Pr-Nd oxide remained tight, futures surged sharply, suppliers held back from selling amid strong bullish sentiment, and metals enterprises were stockpiling ahead of holidays, all of which pushed prices up rapidly. At the same time, disruptions in Myanmar ore supply, domestic separation plants resuming production slower than expectations, and boosted market sentiment formed a combined effect of "undersupply + bullish holdback." However, during March-April, affected by bearish supply-side news and lackluster demand from end-user traditional sectors, the Pr-Nd oxide price quickly pulled back to around 700,000 yuan/mt. That said, the rise in China Northern Rare Earth's concentrate prices in April, supply support from production halts at separation plants, and the release of export orders under the export control extension window jointly drove prices to rebound slightly. Starting in May, the downstream gradually entered the off-season, and purchasing became more cautious. It was not until late June that the Pr-Nd oxide price was boosted again by factors including the official implementation of the Mineral Resources Law Implementation Regulations, which designates rare earths as strategic minerals, and production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises due to tax invoice issues, rebounding to 7.425 billion yuan/mt on June 30. According to SMM quotes, as of July 14, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 762,500 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. Currently, influenced by the intense tug-of-war between upstream and downstream, the oxide market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, while the metals market is relatively sluggish in terms of inquiries, with suppliers holding their quotes relatively firm and showing no obvious adjustments. In the short term, as some raw ore separation and scrap recycling plants undergo production cuts and suspensions, oxide suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices is weak, which is expected to drive Pr-Nd product prices to drift higher. Recommended reading:

[SMM Magnesium Market Analysis: Semi Coke Losses Raise Smelting Costs; China’s Magnesium Ingot Comprehensive Cost Rose MoM in June] At the end of May, a safety accident at the Qinyuan coal mine directly tightened the supply of raw coal in the region, rapidly driving up market coal prices. There was a significant time lag in the transmission of semi coke prices, and losses on production at semi coke plants intensified, substantially increasing the energy raw material cost for primary magnesium smelting. Enterprises mitigated fixed expenses such as plant and equipment depreciation by raising capacity, which only slightly alleviated cost pressure. The incremental cost impact from higher energy prices was stronger, pushing up the industry’s overall smelting cost. Processing profits at upstream plants continued to be squeezed, and profit margins narrowed for most enterprises.

[H1 2026 Silicone Market Analysis and Outlook: Short-term Positives Drive a Retreat after Rapid Rise; Subsequent Focus on Supply and Demand Changes Needed] In H1 2026, China's silicone market was affected by the resonance of multiple factors—the cancellation of export tax rebate policies, industry self-discipline emission reductions, raw material cost fluctuations, and the end-user seasonal switch between off-peak and peak periods. The overall market trended in an inverted V-shape, strengthening first and then weakening, retreating after a rapid rise. The market pattern shifted from phased supply-demand tightness in Q1 to a weak pattern of ample supply and sluggish demand in Q2.

In H1 2026, the overseas bauxite market was generally characterized by high shipment levels, growing imports, a year-on-year decline in prices but a recovery within the year, stronger policy disturbances, and rising energy and freight costs. In particular, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight rates, becoming an important cost-side factor supporting Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. On the supply side, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports maintained significant year-on-year growth, making Guinea the core source of overseas bauxite supply increments. Australian shipments were generally stable, although local weather disruptions in March caused a temporary decline in shipments from major ports. In terms of domestic import structure, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes import changes from January to May 2026. Data shows that domestic bauxite imports continued to grow year-on-year during January-May 2026, with the source structure becoming increasingly concentrated in Guinea. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025, but prices did not continue to decline throughout the year. Since March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, leading to a significant increase in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. Around the Labour Day holiday and again in mid-to-late June, market rumours repeatedly suggested that the Guinean government might introduce bauxite export quota-related policies. Although no such policies were officially implemented within the expected timeframe, these rumours disrupted the transaction pace between buyers and sellers and provided support to forward price expectations. At the same time, after the Chinese New Year holiday, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels, while port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate after March and throughout H1, limiting further upside in spot prices. Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 did not face an absolute shortage. Instead, it showed a pattern of relatively loose physical supply but tightening expectations from costs and policy risks. High Guinean shipments supported arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market, but the high concentration of domestic import sources in Guinea also made the market more sensitive to Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipment disruptions, freight rate fluctuations, and changes in long-term contract prices. Price: Still Low YoY, but CIF Prices Recovered in Stages During the Year According to SMM data, in January-June 2026, the average SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $66.37/mt, down around 26.0% from the same period in 2025. The average Guinea bauxite CIF China price was around $65.88/mt, down around 25.8% year-on-year. The average Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $56.93/mt, down around 23.0% year-on-year. The average Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $61.63/mt, down around 24.1% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 remained significantly below the same period last year. However, from an intra-year perspective, imported bauxite prices first declined and then recovered. In early January, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index was around $68.35/mt, while Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $67.5/mt. By late February, Guinea bauxite CIF China had once fallen to around $60/mt. After entering March, rising oil prices and freight costs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up the landed cost of Guinea bauxite delivered to China. On March 2, Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $62/mt; by March 20, it had risen to $66.5/mt, and by the end of March it further increased to $68.5/mt. It is worth noting that in March, the increase in Guinea CIF prices was significantly greater than the change in FOB prices. SMM data shows that Guinea bauxite FOB was around $37.5/mt on March 2, rose to $38.5/mt on March 20, and remained near $38.5/mt at the end of March. Over the same period, the Guinea CIF-FOB spread widened from around $24.5/mt to around $30/mt. Overall, the March increase in Guinea CIF prices was not entirely driven by mine-side quotations. Freight rates, energy costs, trading premiums, and forward supply risk expectations all provided support to landed prices. From late April to early May, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the Labour Day holiday. As a result, transaction activity between buyers and sellers slowed significantly, and the market turned cautious. In terms of price performance, Guinea bauxite CIF China remained largely stable at around $67.5/mt between April 24 and May 8, while the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index also stayed near $67.52/mt. Prices mainly moved sideways and did not break out significantly. As no related policy was officially introduced during the Labour Day period, market transactions gradually recovered in mid-May, and Guinea bauxite CIF China edged up to around $68/mt. Entering June, Guinean policy expectations once again disturbed the market. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, market rumours again suggested that the Guinean government might introduce export quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. At the same time, market participants were waiting for the release of July long-term contract prices, causing buyers and sellers to turn cautious again. In terms of prices, Guinea bauxite CIF China rose from around $68/mt in early June to around $69.5/mt in mid-June, and further increased to around $71/mt by the end of June. For Guinea monthly long-term contract prices, the price stood at $67/mt in January 2026, fell to $62/mt in February, rebounded to $63/mt in March, remained at $70/mt from April to June, and further increased to $71/mt in July. The firm long-term contract price also provided certain support to the spot market. Shipments: Guinea Maintained High Growth, while Australia Saw a Temporary Weather-Related Decline in March Due to the limited disclosure frequency of overseas mine production data, this article uses weekly shipments from major ports as a reference indicator for observing overseas bauxite exportable supply trends. For monthly comparison, all monthly shipment data mentioned in this article is calculated by allocating weekly shipment data to corresponding months based on the proportion of calendar days. According to SMM statistics, in January-June 2026, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports totalled around 115.1357 million mt, up around 26.5% from the same period in 2025. By month, shipments from Guinea’s major ports increased by around 40.2% YoY in January, 35.1% YoY in February, 28.7% YoY in March, 31.5% YoY in April, 10.9% YoY in May, and 13.5% YoY in June. Overall, Guinean shipments remained high in H1 and continued to serve as the main source of overseas bauxite supply growth. In terms of shipment structure, high Guinean shipments reflected continued release of mine and port export capacity, while also supporting high arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market. At the same time, Guinea’s rising share in the domestic import structure means that the market has become increasingly sensitive to local policy changes, weather conditions, port operations, and shipping conditions. For Australia, bauxite shipments from major ports totalled around 21.6586 million mt in January-June 2026, down around 3.7% year-on-year. Overall performance was relatively stable, but its incremental supply elasticity was weaker than Guinea’s. Australia’s shipments fell notably in March, mainly due to local weather disruptions and related natural events. Weekly data shows that Australian bauxite shipments from major ports declined significantly during March, with shipments from Weipa falling to a low level in late March. After entering April, shipments from Australia’s major ports recovered quickly. This indicates that the weather disruption had more of a temporary impact on shipments rather than representing a sustained supply contraction. Import Structure: Domestic Imports Grew YoY in January-May, with Guinea’s Dominance Further Strengthened On the import side, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes domestic bauxite import changes in January-May 2026. According to customs data, domestic bauxite imports totalled around 100.7579 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 18.6% from 84.9571 million mt in the same period of 2025. By country, domestic imports from Guinea reached around 82.5716 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 24.9% from 66.1231 million mt in the same period of 2025. Guinea accounted for around 82.0% of total domestic bauxite imports, up from around 77.8% in the same period last year. This shows that Guinea remained the largest source of domestic imported bauxite, while its dominance in the import structure further strengthened. Australia remained the second-largest source of domestic bauxite imports. In January-May 2026, domestic imports from Australia stood at around 14.4914 million mt, up around 8.2% from 13.3929 million mt in the same period of 2025. However, Australia’s share of total domestic bauxite imports stood at around 14.4%, lower than around 15.8% in the same period last year. Overall, Australian supply remained stable, but its share in the domestic import structure was significantly lower than Guinea’s, and its short-term incremental supply elasticity was relatively limited. Among non-mainstream sources, domestic imports from Sierra Leone reached around 1.0353 million mt in January-May 2026, marking a significant year-on-year increase. Imports from Guyana reached around 747,200 mt, up slightly year-on-year, while imports from Türkiye reached around 559,100 mt, down significantly year-on-year. Overall, non-mainstream sources provided supplementary supply in certain months, but in terms of supply scale, stability, quality compatibility, and logistics conditions, they remain unable to substantially replace Guinea in the short term. From a monthly perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained high in January-May 2026. Imports stood at around 19.2528 million mt in January, 16.9530 million mt in February, 21.7789 million mt in March, 19.7433 million mt in April, and further increased to around 23.0298 million mt in May. May imports were at a high level, with imports from Guinea reaching around 19.6074 million mt and imports from Australia around 3.0259 million mt. High Guinean shipments in earlier periods and continued demand for imported ore from domestic coastal alumina refineries jointly supported import growth. Inventory and Transactions: High Inventories Suppressed Spot Procurement, while Policy Expectations Disrupted Transaction Pace In terms of inventories, according to SMM surveys, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March, domestic port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate throughout H1. With relatively sufficient inventory buffers, downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. Procurement was mainly conducted on a need-to basis, while some enterprises preferred to observe policy changes, freight rates, and long-term contract price movements before restocking. High inventories also explain a key contradiction in price movements during H1. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up energy and freight costs, while repeated Guinean policy expectations disturbed market sentiment and supported imported bauxite prices. On the other hand, elevated inventories at alumina refineries and ports meant that spot procurement did not see sustained concentrated buying, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited, thereby restricting further price upside. Around the Labour Day holiday, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the holiday period. Transactions between buyers and sellers weakened significantly, and the market entered a wait-and-see mode. As no related policy was officially introduced within the expected timeframe, market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May, but prices only saw a mild recovery. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that Guinea might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with uncertainty around July long-term contract prices, transaction activity became cautious again. Therefore, the impact of Guinean policy expectations in H1 2026 was reflected more in transaction pace and price expectations, rather than simply driving a sustained rapid increase in spot prices. Major Events: Cost Disturbances, Australian Weather, and Guinean Policy Expectations Ran Through H1 The major events in the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 can be divided into three main lines. First, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in March pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, driving a rapid recovery in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. As the Guinea-China route is long, freight rate movements have a significant impact on landed costs. From March to June, Guinea-China bauxite freight rates remained high, once rising to around $36/mt, and fluctuated within a high range. At the same time, persistently high oil prices also pushed up transportation and export costs at Guinean mines. Some mines faced pressure on export margins, and market feedback suggested that some mines reduced shipments in stages or controlled shipment pace during May-June to ease cost pressure. Second, Australia saw a temporary decline in shipments from major ports in March due to local weather disruptions. After allocating weekly shipment data to months based on calendar days, Australian bauxite shipments from major ports stood at around 2.5339 million mt in March, down around 38.8% year-on-year. Among them, shipments from Weipa fell notably in late March. Shipments recovered quickly after entering April, indicating that the disruption was more of a short-term event and had limited impact on the full-year supply structure. Third, Guinean export quota policy expectations repeatedly disturbed the market. Around the Labour Day holiday, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might announce export quota-related policies, leading to weaker transactions and sideways price movements. However, no such policy was eventually introduced, and market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that the Guinean government might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with the pending release of July long-term contract prices, prices again remained firm. Although the policy has not yet been officially implemented, the market has become significantly more sensitive to such news amid the high dependence of domestic imported bauxite on Guinea. Full-Year Outlook: Guinean Policy Risk and Freight Cost Disturbances Continue to Support Forward Price Expectations Looking ahead to H2 2026, the core contradiction in the overseas bauxite market is expected to continue revolving around Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipments, and freight cost fluctuations. If shipments from Guinea’s major ports remain relatively stable as seen in early July, and Guinea-China freight rates continue to fall, imported bauxite supply is still expected to remain relatively sufficient. Domestic alumina refinery and port inventories may also remain elevated, limiting further upside in spot prices. However, on the risk side, current market rumours still suggest that the Guinean government may introduce bauxite export quota-related policies in H2 2026. If such policies are officially implemented and impose substantial constraints on local mine shipment schedules, Guinean bauxite supply elasticity may be affected, thereby supporting imported bauxite prices. Meanwhile, as Guinea gradually enters its traditional rainy season, mining, inland transportation, and port loading may all face temporary disruptions. Based on historical rainy-season performance, Guinean shipments may decline in certain months, affecting domestic arrival schedules and port inventory digestion. In terms of freight rates, Middle East developments still showed potential for volatility in early July, and the previous easing expectations still require further observation. If geopolitical risks rise again, oil prices and dry bulk freight costs may increase once more. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates may rebound from the current range of around $30-32/mt to $36/mt or even higher, pushing imported bauxite CIF prices higher again. Conversely, if the Middle East situation continues to ease and oil prices and freight rates decline further, Guinea-China freight rates may fall below $30/mt. In that case, some Guinean mines that previously reduced shipments or controlled shipment pace may resume shipments, and market transaction activity may recover. On prices, overseas bauxite prices in H2 are expected to remain constrained on both the upside and downside. On the upside, elevated raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries and port inventories will limit acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. If actual supply does not shrink significantly, the momentum for a sustained sharp price increase may be limited. On the downside, Guinean policy expectations, rainy-season disruptions, freight volatility, long-term contract price support, and import source concentration risks all mean that imported bauxite prices lack the basis for a sharp decline. In H2 2026, the market needs to closely monitor whether Guinean export policies are officially implemented, the actual impact of the rainy season on local mines and port shipments, Guinea-China freight rate movements, July and subsequent long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion. If Guinean shipments remain high and port inventories continue to accumulate, the upside elasticity of imported bauxite prices may remain limited. However, if policy implementation tightens, rainy-season disruptions exceed expectations, or freight rates rise again, Guinea bauxite CIF China prices may still receive periodic support. Conclusion Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 was characterized by high shipments, growing imports, a year-on-year price decline but intra-year recovery, and stronger policy disturbances. Guinean shipments increased significantly year-on-year, supporting high domestic bauxite import volumes. Australian shipments recovered after a temporary weather-related decline in March, and overall supply remained relatively stable. In terms of import structure, domestic bauxite imports increased by around 18.6% year-on-year in January-May 2026. Among them, imports from Guinea increased by around 24.9% year-on-year, with its share rising further to around 82.0%, indicating that domestic imported bauxite reliance on Guinea continued to increase. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025. However, prices recovered during the year amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and freight costs, Guinean export quota policy expectations, and long-term contract price support. At the same time, elevated raw material inventories at alumina refineries after the Chinese New Year holiday and continued port inventory accumulation after March limited further upside in spot prices. Looking ahead, the overseas bauxite market does not lack absolute supply, but the supply structure is highly concentrated. Price volatility is increasingly driven by policy, logistics, freight, and risk premiums rather than a simple supply-demand gap. In H2, Guinean policy implementation, rainy-season shipments, freight rate movements, long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion will be key factors affecting overseas bauxite prices and import structure changes.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is thrilled to announce that our flagship event 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum was successfully held at the Hotel Novotel Muenchen Messe, Munich, Germany on June 23! Focused on the front-line European PV+ESS market, the forum brought together high-ranking executives and veteran industry experts from the global new energy industry chain, serving as a professional platform for in-depth China-Europe PV+ESS industry collaboration and dialogue. Opening Remarks From PV Boom to Storage-Driven Power Markets in Europe Guest Speaker: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Drawing on the real landscape of Europe's energy transition, Mr. Liao systematically addressed four major industry topics: Analyzing the market dynamics behind the surge in PV capacity and frequent negative electricity prices; Reviewing new energy storage policies in key countries such as Germany and the UK, including Germany's energy storage strategy, the UK's capacity market reform, and new grid connection queue regulations; Comparing subsidy incentives and self-consumption revenue models for commercial & industrial and residential ESS across different countries; Examining the current European regulatory framework and its profound implications for the global expansion of China's PV+ESS industry chain. He noted that the industry's logic has fundamentally shifted: PV is no longer just about module manufacturing, nor is it limited to PV + energy storage hardware sales. What we are discussing is not only about cost reduction and efficiency gains in hardware, but also about how to leverage energy storage to enhance generation asset returns, control operation and maintenance costs, and optimize enterprise-wide energy asset life cycle management. Keynote Speech: How China’s Export Tax Policy and Raw Material Volatility Affect PV and Battery Pricing? Guest Speaker: Ryan Tzy Tze Yang, PV Modules and End Use Market Analyst, SMM Ryan pointed out that, hit by the dual cost shock from the cancellation of export tax rebates and raw material price fluctuations, module export quotations rose to around $0.12/W in January. Higher costs are prompting overseas clients to prioritize high-end technology pathways, accelerating the industry’s product mix shift toward high-efficiency modules. Additionally, polysilicon and silver account for a significant share of cell manufacturing costs, and their price movements remain the core variables driving cell cost fluctuations. Global PV installations entered a period of adjustment in 2026 : constrained by grid integration bottlenecks across major regions and tightening policies in multiple countries, new PV installations worldwide are expected to temporarily decline to 435 GW in 2026. Amid this deep adjustment cycle driven by infrastructure and policy constraints, the structure of end-use applications is expected to show resilience, with utility-scale projects maintaining a stable share of approximately 56%. Panel Discussion: EU Solar Projects and China’s PV Supply Chain – Opportunities and Challenges Moderator: Cleo Zhou, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM Panelists: Ksenia Dray, Global Solar Supply Chain Leader, Res Group Pierre-Louis Raust, Head of Design and EPC Procurement, Power Capital Renewable Energy Allen Xu, Deputy General Manager, Global Marketing, Gokin Solar Co., Ltd. Huang Gengwen, Executive Dean, Module Department, Crystalline Silicon Research Institute The guests noted that the lengthy construction cycle of Europe’s local PV industry chain, wild swings in energy and raw material costs, protracted project approval and grid connection processes, local manufacturing policies that inflate supply chain layout costs, differences in technology roadmap choices and compliance standards between European and Asian industrial systems, the lack of end-user control over upstream resource prices, coupled with capacity diversion by emerging markets, are the main obstacles hindering China-EU cooperation in advancing EU PV projects. In terms of opportunities, the China-EU PV industry is highly complementary, with China offering mature capacity, complete system solutions, cost hedging tools, localized production line support, and mass production cost reduction capabilities, while Europe provides cutting-edge innovative technologies; this division of labor can jointly achieve Europe’s PV goals. Meanwhile, new technologies, customized solutions, and hedging instruments can mitigate Europe’s challenges with costs and project implementation timelines. Keynote Speech: How Technology Choices Shape BESS Economics Guest Speaker: Michael Strobel, Business Director Europe, Great Power Three Core Dimensions of BESS Economics Safety Value: Safeguard asset security and ensure business continuity and stable operation; Investment Return: Enhance life cycle return rates and reduce the levelized cost of energy storage; O&M Management: Ensure reliable equipment operation and cut full-cycle O&M expenses. High Safety Is the Core Principle of BESS Battery Cell : Use of high-quality LFP battery cells; advanced aerogel insulation technology to block thermal propagation; certified to GB, UL, IEC, UN, MSDS, and RoHS standards. Battery Pack: Battery Pack: Aerogel insulation layers block thermal propagation between battery cells. Fuse protection circuits reduce short-circuit risks; Battery Cluster: multi-level (fuses/contactors/disconnect switches) protection; Comprehensive Protection: overcharge/overdischarge/short-circuit protection. Panel Discussion: BESS Project Development in Europe: Grid, Permits, and Reality on the Ground Moderator: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Panelists: Jan Fousek, CEO, Czech Energy Storage Association Gery Bonduelle, Chief of Business Development, Verkor Antonio Montoto, Head of Storage, Greenvolt Power Joanne Xu, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM The guests noted that, at the grid level, energy storage demand across European countries far exceeds the existing grid capacity. While the responsibilities of TSOs and DSOs are clearly defined, grid operators lack sufficient resources and face approval delays, and foreign investment access is restricted with local content requirements. Policies vary widely across countries; Germany adopts a first-come, first-served mechanism for grid connection quotas, leading to clear regional market differentiation. Moreover, the permitting and implementation stage is fraught with obstacles. Large-scale centralized grid connections bring equipment compatibility and logistics challenges, such as the transportation of large-capacity storage containers. Geopolitical shifts, policy changes, and ongoing fluctuations in raw material and electricity prices constantly erode project returns. The core Central European market is fragmented across multiple countries. As a 10- to 20-year long-term investment, simply chasing low-cost equipment is not advisable. At the same time, future additional electricity loads will further strain the existing grid capacity. In response to these pain points, the speakers also proposed practical solutions: on the one hand, establish an industry association to interface with power grid operators in a unified manner, conduct pre-review of project documentation in advance, and streamline the review process; on the other hand, coordinate multiple parties including EPC contractors, the power grid, equipment suppliers, and financial institutions. For development outside China, rely on local partners to leverage the complementary strengths of the China–Europe industrial ecosystem. Enterprises can also effectively reduce risks by completing end-to-end preparations in advance, establishing a pre-operations and maintenance system, and implementing compliance support in phases. In the long run, grid connection approvals, delays in power grid capacity expansion, and price fluctuations remain the industry’s core challenges. However, the energy storage track offers ample investment opportunities; supported by integrated system solutions, new technology iterations, and industry collaboration, deployment challenges can be gradually alleviated. Meanwhile, the speakers also expect the market to see more high-quality standalone energy storage projects with sustainable and stable operations. That's the end of our 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum. Thank you for the support of all industry peers. See you next year!

PV film price negotiations for July are about to conclude early next week, with market expectations pointing to further price declines. According to SMM analysis, the weakening of EVA prices this month and the ongoing compression of film processing fees by downstream module producers are the main driving factors, coupled with a pullback in international oil prices recently, which has triggered bearish expectations for upstream raw materials. This has further squeezed the bargaining room for film pricing. However, upstream EVA producers have remained relatively "desensitized" to short-term cost fluctuations, with their pricing strategies focusing more on the supply-demand relationship in the market. Whether EVA prices can stabilize in the future will depend on variables such as the pace of module scheduled production increases and supply-side unit maintenance. The final outcome of this round of price negotiations and the subsequent developments on the EVA side warrant close market attention.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extended Decline, Stainless Steel Spot Followed Lower with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on June 25, SS futures extended their decline and weakened. Non-ferrous metals futures continued their downtrend, and combined with the impact of yesterday’s Indonesian nickel ore quota news, SS futures fell further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, pressured by the ongoing decline in futures and the arrival of the traditional consumption off-season, the sluggish trading situation was hard to reverse, and traders showed a strong willingness to sell. Although a mainstream stainless steel mill kept its guidance price unchanged in the morning, spot quotes still fell along with futures, and trading remained sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was reported at 14,600 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 370-970 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil remained flat; cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge saw its average price fall by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 50 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot swung wildly. Macro expectations outside China repeatedly disrupted the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the pattern was one of macros driving futures trends, trading fluctuating with sentiment, supply tightening supporting spot, inventory remaining stable, and profits seeing a minor recovery...