[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures Bottom Out to Support Market, Bull-Bear Balance Keeps Scrap Narrowly Stable This week, prices of 304-grade stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China remained stable, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; the same specification of stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan also remained stable, with a price range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely using stainless steel scrap is approximately 14,580.48 yuan/mt, while the cost of using high-grade NPI reaches 15,113.2 yuan/mt, with a considerable cost spread still maintained between the two. Stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable this week. The substitute raw material high-grade NPI was affected by expectations of production cuts at stainless steel mills in the off-season, with prices continuing to pull back; the overall sentiment on the raw material side was weak, making it difficult to drive an uptick in stainless steel scrap. However, SS futures bottomed out during the week, effectively repairing market pessimism; meanwhile, spot prices of stainless steel products only edged down, highlighting the resilience of the spot market. Under the hedging effect of multiple factors, stainless steel scrap prices remained firm. Overall, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel. Expectations for production schedules at stainless steel mills have been continuously revised downward, smelting margins at steel mills have narrowed compared with earlier periods. Additionally, macro market uncertainty remains relatively high, and bearish risks are gradually accumulating. It is expected that stainless steel scrap prices may face some pullback risks going forward.……

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Scrap Edges Up on Raw Material Linkage, Off-Season Constraints Cap Gains This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt. In the Foshan area, off-cuts of the same specification moved higher in tandem, trading in a range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost analysis perspective, the current production cost of stainless steel using 100% stainless steel scrap is approximately 14,580.48 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI stands at 15,153.78 yuan/mt, maintaining a significant cost spread between the two. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. During the week, SS futures retreated after a rapid rise overall, while spot stainless steel prices fluctuated narrowly and held firm overall, providing a stable foundation for the stainless steel scrap market. Meanwhile, the alternative raw material high-grade NPI market continued to hold up well, with prices edging higher. The positive overall sentiment in the raw material segment spurred stainless steel scrap prices to rise in tandem. However, the market has now entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with weak downstream end-use demand. Coupled with production cuts and maintenance at domestic steel mills, raw material demand expectations have weakened somewhat. The industry-wide issue of tight tax invoices has yet to be effectively resolved, continuing to constrain market trading activity. At the same time, recent grade degradation issues in high-grade NPI require steel mills to supplement nickel content with high grade nickel products, and combined with limitations in their production processes, it remains difficult for steel mills to significantly increase their use of stainless steel scrap. Although stainless steel scrap retains a favorable cost advantage over high-grade NPI, multiple bearish off-season factors on...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Off-Season Bearish Factors Dragged Stainless Steel Scrap Prices to Pull Back Slightly, Cost Advantages Held Up the Market Floor This week, prices of 304 stainless steel off-cuts in east China pulled back slightly, with a quotation range of 10,300-10,400 yuan/mt. Prices of the same-grade stainless steel off-cuts in Foshan remained stable, with a price range of 10,150-10,450 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material production costs, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,459.87 yuan/mt, while the cost of production entirely using high-grade NPI reached 15,149.69 yuan/mt. The price spread between the two remained considerable. Stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. Although SS futures saw a slight upward probe during the week, the upward momentum from futures was relatively weak and difficult to transmit to the spot market. Coupled with the market gradually approaching the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, downstream end-user purchase sentiment turned cautious overall, and spot prices of finished stainless steel products remained largely stable, lacking upward momentum. Meanwhile, the pace of price increases for the alternative raw material high-grade NPI also slowed down simultaneously, with weak market transaction performance and insufficient overall support from the raw material side. Additionally, the long-standing industry issue of tight tax invoices remained unresolved, and news of production cuts and maintenance at individual stainless steel mills in June emerged. Market expectations for raw material demand weakened, and multiple bearish factors collectively dragged stainless steel scrap prices to pull back slightly during the week. Despite the slight weakening of scrap prices this week, stainless steel scrap still maintained favorable cost advantages compared to high-grade NPI. The significant production cost spread continued to play a substitution role, providing...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Bearish Factors Converge to Weaken Stainless Steel Scrap, Cost Advantages Hold Price Floor This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt. Off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan weakened, with a price range of 10,150-10,450 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,580.48 yuan/mt, while the cost of production entirely using high-grade NPI reached 15,125.2 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices fell and pulled back this week. The stainless steel finished product spot market was overall in the doldrums, with spot prices continuously under pressure. Meanwhile, steel mills continued to push for lower prices on the alternative raw material high-grade NPI, creating an overall bearish atmosphere on the raw material side. Combined with major steel mills lowering their molten steel quotations during the week, multiple bearish factors converged to drive stainless steel scrap prices further down. The supporting factors cushioning the decline in stainless steel scrap were clearly visible: positive news emerged in the market this week that issues related to reverse invoicing and tight tax invoices might be eased, with industry transaction pain points expected to be alleviated. Steel mills' purchase demand for stainless steel scrap is expected to increase going forward. At the same time, stainless steel scrap continued to maintain favorable cost advantages over high-grade NPI. Coupled with the fact that steel mills still had profit margins on the production side, production and procurement enthusiasm was sustained, and overall rigid demand remained robust, continuously providing floor support for stainless steel scrap prices. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a pattern of "weakening spot prices, cost-supported floor, and expectations of recovery...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Weak Futures Dragged Down Stainless Steel Scrap, Cost Advantages Underpinned the Market This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with the quotation range at 10,600-10,700 yuan/mt; prices of the same-spec stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan held steady, with the price range at 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost perspective, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,821.71 yuan/mt, while the cost of production entirely using high-grade NPI reached 15,173.94 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices declined and pulled back this week. SS futures were generally in the doldrums, with futures continuously under pressure, which in turn transmitted to the spot market, driving spot stainless steel finished product prices to pull back in tandem. The alternative raw material high-grade NPI also declined simultaneously, but its own raw material fundamentals remained relatively firm, limiting the price drop. As stainless steel spot prices trended downward, steel mills still retained certain smelting profits, production willingness stayed high, and steel mill production schedules showed no reduction. Meanwhile, with the limited decline in high-grade NPI, the cost advantages of stainless steel scrap relative to high-grade NPI became more prominent during the week. Even though industry tax invoice issues persisted, they did not affect steel mills' procurement pace, and procurement demand for stainless steel scrap with better cost advantages remained solid. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a pullback pattern characterized by "weak futures, resilient raw materials, and demand underpinning." Bearish futures dominated the short-term trend, but rigid demand and cost price spread advantages formed strong support. Tax invoices...

Market Overview According to SMM data, during the first trading week following the Lunar New Year holiday (February 24 – February 27, 2026), the dominant stainless steel contract (SS2604) opened high and maintained a strong trend, driven by significantly rising raw material costs. By the close on February 27, the contract price had climbed to 14,150 CNY/mt ($2,065.69/mt) , an increase of 385 CNY/mt ($56.20/mt) or +2.80% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of 13,765 CNY/mt ($2,009.49/mt) . In the early post-holiday period, the market's upward logic was primarily dominated by rising costs on the supply side. However, as the price center shifted upward rapidly, the substantial accumulation of social inventory during the holiday formed a tangible suppression on the upside potential. Consequently, futures prices maintained a fluctuating struggle within the 14,100–14,200 CNY ($2,058.39–$2,072.99) range. Macroeconomic Analysis From a macro perspective, the market is navigating an interplay between reasonably ample domestic liquidity and uncertainties regarding overseas trade policies. Domestic: On February 25, the central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY ($87.59 billion) one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation. This continued to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, providing macro support for the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak consumption season and stabilizing market expectations. Overseas: The U.S. Trade Representative stated they would continue to advance the Section 301 investigation regarding the Phase One trade agreement, with proposals to raise "global import tariff" rates from 10% to 15% or higher. Potential tariff changes have intensified uncertainty in the external macro environment, which may have a negative impact on future export expectations for stainless steel and related end-products. Fundamentals: Inventory & Demand Fundamentally, the post-holiday market faces the reality of a massive inventory buildup while end-user demand is still in a recovery phase. Inventory: Latest SMM data shows that, due to the long Spring Festival holiday, social inventory significantly increased to 1.0161 million tons this week. This is an increase of 121,600 tons compared to the pre-holiday level of 894,500 tons , breaching the one-million-ton mark. Spot Transactions: The market is currently in a gradual restart phase. Downstream processing factories have not yet fully resumed work, and current spot circulation is mostly concentrated on resource allocation between traders. The end-market's actual ability to digest current high-priced resources remains to be verified after enterprises fully resume work next week. Sentiment: In the short term, high inventory levels pose significant pressure on prices. However, supported by expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, holders' sentiment remains temporarily stable, with no large-scale sell-offs observed. Cost Analysis The significant strengthening of the cost side was the core driver for the high market opening this week. Driven by news of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quotas and fluctuating rises in nickel prices post-holiday, there is a strong willingness to support prices on the raw material side. High-grade Nickel Pig Iron (NPI): As of February 27, quotes were raised significantly, rising by 33.5 CNY ($4.89) in a single week to 1,085 CNY/nickel point ($158.39/nickel point) . High Carbon Ferrochrome: Prices remained temporarily stable at 8,550 CNY/50 basis tons ($1,248.18/50 basis tons) . The expectation of tight ore supply materialized quickly after the holiday, substantially raising the immediate production costs for steel mills. The upward shift in the cost center effectively limited the room for market correction and forced a passive, steady rise in the center of spot transaction prices. Outlook & Strategy Overall, the stainless steel market in the first week after the holiday presented a tug-of-war pattern: "Strong Expectations & High Costs" vs. "Weak Reality & High Inventory." While the sharp rise in NPI prices established a tone for a strong fluctuating market, the social inventory exceeding one million tons—coupled with end-user demand that has yet to kick in—constrained further upside potential. Looking ahead to next week, the market trading logic will gradually shift from "sentiment-driven" to "fundamental verification." Short-term: Futures prices are expected to maintain a strong fluctuation at high levels. Medium-to-long-term: The trend will depend on the actual realization of demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season after downstream sectors fully resume work. Industrial clients are advised to closely monitor the inventory inflection point (destocking) and actual spot transaction conditions next week. Carefully assess the risks of chasing highs and reasonably utilize hedging tools to manage exposure.

Iron phosphate prices rose by ¥500/ton, yet ¥409 of this was offset by surging raw material costs. Tight supply in sulfur and titanium dioxide sectors drove up input expenses, making this hike a cost pass-through with little real profit gain for producers.

At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit - Main Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Allen Cui, Director of SMM Nonferrous Consulting, shared insights on the topic of "Prospects for the Development of the Global Secondary Metal Industry."