Market Overview According to SMM data, during the first trading week following the Lunar New Year holiday (February 24 – February 27, 2026), the dominant stainless steel contract (SS2604) opened high and maintained a strong trend, driven by significantly rising raw material costs. By the close on February 27, the contract price had climbed to 14,150 CNY/mt ($2,065.69/mt) , an increase of 385 CNY/mt ($56.20/mt) or +2.80% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of 13,765 CNY/mt ($2,009.49/mt) . In the early post-holiday period, the market's upward logic was primarily dominated by rising costs on the supply side. However, as the price center shifted upward rapidly, the substantial accumulation of social inventory during the holiday formed a tangible suppression on the upside potential. Consequently, futures prices maintained a fluctuating struggle within the 14,100–14,200 CNY ($2,058.39–$2,072.99) range. Macroeconomic Analysis From a macro perspective, the market is navigating an interplay between reasonably ample domestic liquidity and uncertainties regarding overseas trade policies. Domestic: On February 25, the central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY ($87.59 billion) one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation. This continued to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, providing macro support for the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak consumption season and stabilizing market expectations. Overseas: The U.S. Trade Representative stated they would continue to advance the Section 301 investigation regarding the Phase One trade agreement, with proposals to raise "global import tariff" rates from 10% to 15% or higher. Potential tariff changes have intensified uncertainty in the external macro environment, which may have a negative impact on future export expectations for stainless steel and related end-products. Fundamentals: Inventory & Demand Fundamentally, the post-holiday market faces the reality of a massive inventory buildup while end-user demand is still in a recovery phase. Inventory: Latest SMM data shows that, due to the long Spring Festival holiday, social inventory significantly increased to 1.0161 million tons this week. This is an increase of 121,600 tons compared to the pre-holiday level of 894,500 tons , breaching the one-million-ton mark. Spot Transactions: The market is currently in a gradual restart phase. Downstream processing factories have not yet fully resumed work, and current spot circulation is mostly concentrated on resource allocation between traders. The end-market's actual ability to digest current high-priced resources remains to be verified after enterprises fully resume work next week. Sentiment: In the short term, high inventory levels pose significant pressure on prices. However, supported by expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, holders' sentiment remains temporarily stable, with no large-scale sell-offs observed. Cost Analysis The significant strengthening of the cost side was the core driver for the high market opening this week. Driven by news of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quotas and fluctuating rises in nickel prices post-holiday, there is a strong willingness to support prices on the raw material side. High-grade Nickel Pig Iron (NPI): As of February 27, quotes were raised significantly, rising by 33.5 CNY ($4.89) in a single week to 1,085 CNY/nickel point ($158.39/nickel point) . High Carbon Ferrochrome: Prices remained temporarily stable at 8,550 CNY/50 basis tons ($1,248.18/50 basis tons) . The expectation of tight ore supply materialized quickly after the holiday, substantially raising the immediate production costs for steel mills. The upward shift in the cost center effectively limited the room for market correction and forced a passive, steady rise in the center of spot transaction prices. Outlook & Strategy Overall, the stainless steel market in the first week after the holiday presented a tug-of-war pattern: "Strong Expectations & High Costs" vs. "Weak Reality & High Inventory." While the sharp rise in NPI prices established a tone for a strong fluctuating market, the social inventory exceeding one million tons—coupled with end-user demand that has yet to kick in—constrained further upside potential. Looking ahead to next week, the market trading logic will gradually shift from "sentiment-driven" to "fundamental verification." Short-term: Futures prices are expected to maintain a strong fluctuation at high levels. Medium-to-long-term: The trend will depend on the actual realization of demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season after downstream sectors fully resume work. Industrial clients are advised to closely monitor the inventory inflection point (destocking) and actual spot transaction conditions next week. Carefully assess the risks of chasing highs and reasonably utilize hedging tools to manage exposure.

Iron phosphate prices rose by ¥500/ton, yet ¥409 of this was offset by surging raw material costs. Tight supply in sulfur and titanium dioxide sectors drove up input expenses, making this hike a cost pass-through with little real profit gain for producers.

At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit - Main Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Allen Cui, Director of SMM Nonferrous Consulting, shared insights on the topic of "Prospects for the Development of the Global Secondary Metal Industry."

At the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo - Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Professor Wu Xiaohua from the School of Automotive and Transportation at Xihua University shared insights on the topic of "Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Use in Fuel Cell Commercial Vehicles."

At the CLNB 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Chain Expo - Battery Materials Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Chief Scientist of Sichuan Development Longmang Co., Ltd. and Professor at Central South University, Guorong Hu, shared insights on the topic "Technical Progress and Opportunities of LFP Materials."

Introduction In Q1 2025, the global hydrogen industry underwent a quiet yet profound transformation—the green hydrogen supply chain shifted from single-technology competition to a system reconstruction dominated by geo-economics. With the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) taking effect, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) details being finalized, and the joint promotion of the Northeast Asia Hydrogen Corridor by China, Japan, and South Korea, the cross-border trade rules, production standards, and supply chain layout of green hydrogen accelerated differentiation, forming a "multi-polar supply chain network" centered on regional blocs. In this process, driven by both technological breakthroughs and policy games, green hydrogen leaped from a "supplementary energy role" to a strategic bargaining chip in great power competition. This article will focus on the reconstruction logic of the global green hydrogen supply chain, analyzing the geo-economic motivations and industrial impacts behind it. I. Three Drivers of Supply Chain Reconstruction: Policy, Technology, and Capital 1. Policy Barriers: From "Subsidy Competition" to "Standards War" EU: Defining Trade Boundaries with "Green Hydrogen Certification" In February 2025, the European Commission passed the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), requiring imported green hydrogen to meet a life cycle carbon emission of ≤3 kg CO₂/kg H₂ and introducing blockchain technology to track the origin of green hydrogen. This standard, referred to as the "WTO rules of the hydrogen market" by the industry, directly excluded Brazilian sugarcane bagasse hydrogen and Middle Eastern natural gas blending projects from the "green" label. The EU's "carbon tariff" and certification system essentially built a "moat" for its internal hydrogen industry. Chain Reaction: Brazil filed a lawsuit with the WTO, accusing the EU of "setting up trade barriers in disguise"; Middle Eastern countries accelerated the layout of blue hydrogen capacity to hedge policy risks. US: Localization Rate Requirements Tear Apart the Global Supply Chain In March 2025, the US Department of Energy clarified that clean hydrogen tax credits must meet a localization rate of ≥60% for electrolyzer equipment, and the power source must be domestic renewable energy or nuclear energy. This forced companies like Germany's McPhy and Norway's NEL Hydrogen to adjust their strategies: either invest in building factories in the US or exit the North American market. Data Confirmation: In Q1 2025, European exports of electrolyzers to the US fell by 28% YoY, while the utilization rate of domestic electrolyzer capacity in the US increased to 75%. Asia: Regional Alliance Against Geo-Isolation On April 16, China, Japan, and South Korea signed the "Northeast Asia Hydrogen Corridor Memorandum of Understanding," planning to use wind and solar resources in Inner Mongolia, China, to produce hydrogen, which would be liquefied and transported by ship to Japan and South Korea. This cooperation was seen by the outside world as Asia's "strategic leverage" against the EU's dominance in green hydrogen, attempting to break the monopoly of European and American standards through the "resource-technology-market" triangular complementarity. 2. Technological Breakthroughs: Storage and Transportation Revolution Breaks Geographic Constraints of the Supply Chain Solid-State Hydrogen Storage: From Laboratory to Cross-Border Logistics In March, China's CORUN Group released a titanium-iron-based solid-state hydrogen storage tank with a hydrogen storage density of 50 kg/m³ and a cycle life exceeding 10,000 cycles. This technology allows hydrogen to be safely transported at room temperature and pressure, reducing costs by 40% compared to high-pressure gaseous storage and transportation. In April, Japan's Chiyoda and France's Air Liquide collaborated to deploy the world's first organic liquid hydrogen storage (LOHC) pilot facility at the Port of Rotterdam, increasing the hydrogen storage density to 60 kg/m³. Strategic Significance: The maturity of solid-state and liquid storage and transportation technologies enables countries with abundant wind and solar resources, such as Australia and the Middle East, to convert green hydrogen into transportable forms, directly connecting with East Asian and European markets. Liquid Hydrogen Carriers: The "New Oil Pipelines" of the Maritime Network In April, France's Total launched the construction of the world's first liquid hydrogen carrier, designed with a capacity of 50 mt per voyage, aiming to establish the Australia-Europe liquid hydrogen trade route; the US's Amprius built the world's longest (500 km) high-pressure gaseous hydrogen pipeline, using nitrogen blending technology to reduce hydrogen embrittlement risk by 70%. Cost Analysis: When the transportation cost of liquid hydrogen drops below $2.5/kg, green hydrogen trade from Australia to Japan will become economically feasible. 3. Capital Restructuring: From "Single-Point Investment" to "Industry Chain Bundling" Saudi Aramco and Hyundai Motor: Binding Resources and End-Use Markets Saudi Aramco plans to invest $10 billion in the Middle East to build an integrated "green hydrogen-ammonia-fuel cell" base, converting green hydrogen into green ammonia for export to Asia, where it will be cracked into hydrogen for fuel cell trucks. This model not only avoids the high costs of liquid hydrogen transportation but also reconstructs the supply chain through the mature ammonia trade network. Industry Impact: Saudi Arabia's layout in the green hydrogen sector directly threatens Australia's strategic position as a "hydrogen export powerhouse." China's "Wind and Solar Hydrogen Integration": Binding Resources and Technology China Petrochemical's Xinjiang Kuqa Phase II PV hydrogen production project (with an annual output of 20,000 mt of green hydrogen) uses domestically produced ALK electrolyzers, reducing the life cycle cost by 35% compared to imported equipment. Such projects, through the bundling model of "wind and solar resources + domestic technology + ultra-high voltage transmission," form cost advantages, forcing European and American companies to adjust their supply chain strategies. II. Three Blocs and Focal Points of Supply Chain Reconstruction 1. EU's "Green Fortress": Regional Closed Loop Under High Thresholds Core Strategy: Build a "hydrogen trade firewall" through CBAM and RED III, mandating that imported green hydrogen complies with EU standards and imposing tariffs on "non-green" hydrogen. Bloc Members: Nordic countries (Norway, Iceland) provide hydropower hydrogen, Germany and France lead electrolyzer and fuel cell technology, and Southern Europe (Spain, Italy) focuses on PV hydrogen. Weakness: Significant differences in internal hydrogen production costs (Nordic green hydrogen costs $3.5/kg, Southern Europe $5.2/kg), and the reliance on Russia's natural gas pipeline network for energy storage and peak shaving has not been fully replaced. 2. US's "Local First": Technological Decoupling and Supply Chain Internalization Core Strategy: The IRA bill details link localization rate requirements with tax credits, forcing companies to keep key equipment such as electrolyzers and compressors in North America. Bloc Members: Domestic companies (Plug Power, NEL Hydrogen) lead electrolyzer manufacturing, First Solar and NextEra Energy provide green electricity, and Tesla and Nikola Motors drive end-use applications. Risk: Excessive localization slows down technological iteration, and the "semi-local" supply chains in Canada and Mexico face compliance disputes. 3. Asia's "Multi-Polar Alliance": Resource and Market Hedging Layout China-Japan-South Korea Alliance: Focuses on hydrogen production from China's wind and solar resources, Japan's liquid hydrogen transportation technology, and South Korea's fuel cell applications, attempting to bypass EU standards. Middle East-Southeast Asia Alliance: Saudi Arabia and the UAE focus on blue/green hydrogen exports, while Indonesia and Malaysia use biomass hydrogen to participate in regional trade. Focal Point: The China-Japan-South Korea alliance needs to address high hydrogen liquefaction costs and insufficient storage and transportation infrastructure; the Middle East faces competitive pressure from Europe's "green ammonia substitution" strategy. III. Industrial Impacts and Future Challenges Under Reconstruction 1. Role Split of Traditional Energy Giants Companies like Saudi Aramco and Shell must balance maintaining traditional oil and gas interests with investing in the new green hydrogen track. Saudi Aramco reduces transition risks through its "hydrogen-ammonia" strategy, while Shell faces resistance in the European market due to its adherence to the "blue hydrogen transition" route. 2. Intensified Technology Route Competition and Standard Setting Power Struggle The competition between high-temperature proton exchange membrane (HT-PEM) and solid oxide electrolyzer (SOEC) technologies has extended from the laboratory to trade rules. The EU attempts to establish HT-PEM as the sole standard for "green certification" through RED III, while the US supports SOEC to align with domestic nuclear power resources. 3. Geopolitical Conflicts Catalyze Supply Chain "De-Risking" In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe accelerated its decoupling from Russia's natural gas pipeline network but fell into a "green hydrogen supply gap"; Middle Eastern and North African countries seized the opportunity to expand hydrogen exports to Europe, reshaping the geo-economic landscape. IV. Trend Outlook: The "Triple Transformation" of Supply Chain Reconstruction 1. Trade Form Transformation: From "Direct Green Hydrogen Exports" to "Hydrogen-Based Intermediate (Ammonia, LOHC) Trade," with global hydrogen-based intermediate trade volume potentially exceeding 5 million mt in 2025. 2. Standard System Transformation: The EU, US, and Asia may form three sets of green hydrogen certification systems, requiring companies to build "standard-compatible" supply chains to reduce compliance costs. 3. Competition Logic Transformation: The green hydrogen industry shifts from "technological leadership" competition to "resource-technology-market" full-chain control, requiring companies to reposition themselves among the three blocs. Conclusion The reconstruction of the global green hydrogen supply chain is essentially a projection of international order transformation in the energy sector. As green hydrogen transitions from a "technological experiment" to a "geopolitical strategic material," its development logic has surpassed mere economic considerations, evolving into a new battlefield for great power competition. In the future, whoever can first break through storage and transportation bottlenecks, build a cross-border supply chain closed loop, and dominate standard setting will gain a voice in this reconstruction. The outcome of this process may determine the final shape of the global energy power structure in the mid-21st century.

SMM April 13 News: Alumina prices have been on a steady decline since December 2024. Although bauxite, a major cost component, has also exhibited a downward trend, its decrease has been less significant than anticipated. According to SMM's daily cost-profit model, the alumina industry has transitioned from an average profit of over 2,400 yuan/mt to an average loss of 241 yuan/mt. As of April 11th, alumina prices have cumulatively decreased by 2,899 yuan/mt from their peak. In contrast, bauxite prices fell by only $27.44/mt, settling around $88.75/mt. Various factors such as ore consumption, exchange rates, and VAT imply that a $1/mt reduction in bauxite prices lowers alumina costs by approximately 21-23 yuan/mt. Consequently, the modest decline in bauxite prices has reduced alumina costs by about 576-631 yuan/mt, a figure that pales in comparison to the significant reduction in alumina prices. Regional Cost Analysis for March An analysis of the ore structure and cost levels for alumina production reveals notable regional differences: Guangxi : The weighted average full cost of alumina was approximately 3,046 yuan/mt, with a cash cost of 2,829 yuan/mt. This represents a 249 yuan/mt reduction from the March average alumina price of 3,295 yuan/mt, primarily due to the lower cost of domestically sourced bauxite. Guizhou : Here, the weighted average full cost was around 3,137 yuan/mt, with a cash cost of 2,888 yuan/mt. The full cost was 184 yuan/mt lower than the March average price of 3,321 yuan/mt, largely because of the limited price increase in domestic bauxite compared to imported bauxite. Shandong : The weighted average full cost of alumina stood at 3,306 yuan/mt, with a cash cost of 3,152 yuan/mt. This was 69 yuan/mt higher than the March average price, resulting in a loss, although the cash cost remained below the month's average alumina price. Shanxi and Henan : The weighted average full costs were 3,681 yuan/mt and 3,509 yuan/mt, respectively, with cash costs at 3,535 yuan/mt and 3,304 yuan/mt. Compared with average cost in Henan, the higher average cost in Shanxi is attributed to the increased use of imported bauxite. Both regions experienced costs exceeding the March average, resulting in significant loss pressure. Outlook for April Entering April, both domestic and imported bauxite prices have shown a varying degree of decline, leading to reduced alumina costs. However, the cost reduction due to falling bauxite prices is considerably smaller than the drop in alumina prices. This disparity is putting alumina refineries under substantial financial strain. According to the daily cost-profit model, alumina producers using imported bauxite in regions like Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Shandong, as well as those utilizing domestically sourced bauxite in Shanxi and Henan, have entered a phase of losses. Faced with mounting financial pressures, the scale of production cuts in the alumina industry is expected to expand further.

[3.25 Lithium Battery News] ►Trump Says May Offer Tariff Concessions to Many Countries but Requires Reciprocity ►Hyundai's Georgia Plant Expected to Open This Week with a Target Annual Capacity of 500,000 Units ►BYD: 2024 Net Profit Grows 34% Plans to Distribute 39.74 Yuan per 10 Shares ►Capchem: 2024 Net Profit Down 6.83% YoY Plans to Distribute 4 Yuan per 10 Shares ►Bijiet: Seawater Lithium Extraction Project Still Under Optimization Based on Cost Analysis and Application Scenarios ►EVE: Subsidiary Receives Supplier Designation Notice from Changan Automobile

SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary: At the beginning of this week, the spot price of refined cobalt slightly increased. Supply side, smelters generally adopted a stand firm on quotes approach due to the potential extension of DRC's suspension of cobalt product exports. Demand side, some producers had already completed their purchases, resulting in fewer inquiries from downstream producers and lower actual transactions.

Overview of Malaysia's Iron Ore Import and Export Landscape, Regardless of Blended Ore or Local Ore, the Largest Shipping Proportion Remains to China Moreover, the proportion of iron ore concentrates has been gradually increasing in recent years. ▶ Generally, the market's first impression of Malaysia's iron ore resources is always the blending hub, a transshipment center established by Vale for the East Asian and Southeast Asian markets. Indeed, historical data shows that Malaysia's iron ore landscape is characterized by "high imports and high exports." ▶ Observing SMM shipping data, in 2024, all of Malaysia's local iron ore exports were shipped to China. In contrast, BRBF shipments were relatively dispersed, with 54% shipped to China, followed by Vietnam (36%), and the remaining 10% to countries like Indonesia and India. ▶ Due to geographical advantages, most of Malaysia's local ore is exported from Kuantan Port to major Chinese ports, including Tangshan Main Port, Shandong Main Port, Lianyungang, and Tianjin. Meanwhile, BRBF is exported from Lumut Port to Tangshan Main Port, Shandong Main Port, Fangchenggang, Zhanjiang Port, Lianyungang, Tianjin, and Fuzhou Port. ▶ Among Malaysia's iron ore exports to China, lump ore is the most mainstream product. Notably, in 2020, lump ore exports to China reached 1.84 million mt, accounting for half of that year's total, primarily due to the insufficient beneficiation capacity of local mines. ▶ However, in recent years, the volume and proportion of iron ore concentrates have been gradually increasing, mainly driven by the gradual deployment of beneficiation equipment by some Malaysian mines and the incremental production of concentrates by top-tier mines. In 2024, Malaysia's exports of iron ore concentrates to China reached 1.28 million mt, accounting for 43% of that year's total. Beyond the Aura of Vale's Blending Hub, How Much Local Iron Ore Resources Does Malaysia Have Left? ▶ According to the latest annual report released by the Malaysian Chamber of Mines, the number of iron ore mines in Malaysia reached 77 in 2022 (compared to 66 in 2021), mainly distributed in Perak, Kedah, Johore, Pahang, Terengganu, and Kelantan. The iron ore products are primarily low-grade, sourced from small reserves and leased mines. Most of the iron ore is exported to China, with a small portion used in Malaysia's local cement plants and steel mills. ▶ Currently, local Malaysian mines mainly produce low-grade coarse powder and lump ore. Some domestic import traders have reported that Malaysia's low-grade ore has relatively high impurities such as silicon and aluminum, requiring blending or beneficiation upon return to China. Most of Malaysia's supply is limonite, which is challenging to beneficiate. However, it is expected that with the increased production of concentrates by top-tier enterprises and the addition of beneficiation equipment at some mines, the supply of high-grade concentrate products from Malaysia is likely to increase in the future. Distribution of Major Iron Ore Mines in Malaysia ▶ Malaysia's operating iron ore resources are mainly concentrated in Peninsular Malaysia, with Pahang, Terengganu, and Johore being the most concentrated areas for local ore production. Pahang is the largest iron ore-producing state in Malaysia. Most of Malaysia's raw ore grades range from 30% to 50%. However, due to the late development of blast furnace ironmaking and mining and beneficiation technologies, the industry is still in the development stage, with accelerated progress in recent years. According to the plans of major mines, Malaysia is expected to supply over 30 million mt of iron ore in the future, High-Grade Iron Ore Concentrates Will Be the Focus of Local Mines ▶ Currently, Malaysia's iron ore supply landscape is dominated by Fortress, with numerous small-scale mines scattered across the country, resulting in low industry concentration. In the future, Fortress's new mine expansion and new beneficiation plant production line expansion will continue to drive the incremental production of concentrates in Malaysia. Additionally, with OUS Group's ongoing acquisitions and developments, SAM's transition from open-pit to underground mining, and the active development of new mines, the concentration of Malaysia's iron ore industry is expected to improve. ▶ Currently, Malaysia's high-grade iron ore suppliers are mainly Fortress, whose 65% grade concentrates are primarily derived from magnetite, while coarse powder and lump ore with grades of 55-60% come from hematite. SAM can also supply high-grade concentrates, but with the expiration of open-pit mining rights, underground mining and the commissioning of expanded mines are expected to boost Malaysia's high-grade concentrate supply. ▶ According to the current plans of Malaysia's major iron ore enterprises, over 30 million mt of iron ore resources are expected to be supplied in the future, with products still dominated by coarse powder, concentrates, and lump ore. Notably, concentrates are expected to increase by over 1 million mt based on the existing supply. Malaysia's Iron Ore Resources for Sale and Pricing ▶ The aforementioned resources are sold in the form of futures. If needed, they can be shipped at any time, with delivery within 45 days after signing the contract and paying a 15% deposit. These resources are coarse powder located in the West Coast mining area of Malaysia and can be shipped from Penang Port, with a monthly supply of 50,000 mt. Pricing is based on the Platts index * discount. ▶ Additionally, some traders have reported that due to the small transaction volume of Malaysian iron ore, the domestic spot market currently references the price of low-grade Indian ore, with negotiations conducted on a case-by-case basis. Contact Us SMM Ferrous Consulting continues to collaborate with ferrous industry chain enterprises on overseas investment projects and project evaluations, including steel, iron ore, coking, and end-use projects. Leveraging a robust industry database and extensive network resources, we are dedicated to providing upstream, midstream, and downstream industry chain consulting services to our clients. Our services include market supply and demand research and forecasting, market entry strategies, competitor cost analysis, and more, covering iron ore, coal, coke, steel, and end-use industries. SMM Ferrous has successfully served over 300 Fortune Global 500 companies, China 500 companies, central state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises, publicly listed firms, and startups. Malaysia's iron ore mines are relatively scattered, with a total of over 70 mines. Due to space limitations, they are not listed individually in this article. If interested, feel free to contact us for more industry insights. *This report is an original work and/or compilation by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"). SMM legally owns the copyright, which is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. Without written permission, no part of this content may be reproduced, modified, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, or disseminated in any form, nor disclosed to third parties or licensed for third-party use. 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