Taking Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion acquisition of Germany-based VAC as a starting point, this article systematically reviews the US's recent acquisition trajectory for mature international rare earth assets. From taking a controlling stake in the Serra Verde heavy rare earth mine in Brazil and acquiring the UK's LCM alloy plant, to securing capacity from Australia's Lynas, the US is leveraging state capital to bypass lengthy certification cycles through cross-border acquisitions, building a non-China "mining-refining-magnet" supply chain. The article notes that although the $110/kg government price anchor has rewritten project IRR models, Western magnet capacity accounts for only 15% of the global total, and the heavy rare earth closed loop cannot be verified until after 2027, making it difficult to shake China's dominance in the short term.

Zimbabwe is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources to provide financing support for road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China through "resource-linked debt instruments," Finance Minister Ncube Mthuli disclosed on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Dalian. This model aims to use future revenue from natural resources as loan collateral to address the huge funding gap in infrastructure construction. Ncube Mthuli said that Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group on such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have explored debt instruments linked to resources and hope to use these instruments in the future to support infrastructure development, especially in the road and railway sectors." According to the plan, the Zimbabwean side will assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the payback period for the required resource investments to determine the specific scale of resource collateral and repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but its infrastructure has lagged severely due to prolonged economic mismanagement and political instability. The African Development Bank estimates that the country requires approximately $34 billion to complete the modernization of its transport and logistics networks. The proposed resource-for-infrastructure scheme is similar in model to the $7 billion Sicomines copper-cobalt joint venture between the DRC and Chinese enterprises. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's president had promoted a railway upgrade cooperation plan worth $533 million during a meeting with senior officials of China Railway Group in Beijing. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway with extensive experience in Africa. The scope of works includes the repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernization of signaling systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight cars, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line project connecting Beitbridge and Harare. This trunk line leads directly to South Africa and serves as an important strategic corridor for Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and the official signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and its annual freight volume once reached 12 million mt in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, aging equipment, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Currently, annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million mt, representing only 15% of the historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock are out of service, directly weakening the transport capacity for bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to ports in Mozambique and South Africa. As a result, Chinese mining enterprises investing in Zimbabwe, such as Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Group, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are all facing bottlenecks in product shipments. The decline of the railway system has shifted a large volume of freight to roads, leading to a surge in the number of heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, creating a vicious cycle. To address this, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway upgrade into a broader modernization framework and collaborated with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge-Bulawayo Railway, has deployed 3 locomotives and 150 wagons to relieve current transport pressure. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwean side is also exploring cooperation with the University of Zimbabwe, leveraging the university's innovation center for localized railway technology R&D and talent cultivation to build capacity for long-term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway upgrade is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's decaying railway network but also provide critical logistical support for the country to achieve its $12 billion mining target. It will also further deepen the strategic positioning of Chinese-funded enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years, especially this year, lithium ore arrivals from Zimbabwe have been continuously hampered, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the major bottlenecks constraining the smooth arrival of goods. With the implementation of the relevant logistics system upgrades, this situation is expected to be effectively alleviated, significantly improving the transport efficiency of lithium materials, thereby injecting solid strength into stabilizing the global supply of lithium resources. Source: Mining, compiled by SMM.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, China’s prebaked anode raw material market saw divergence, with overall costs fluctuating modestly. According to SMM monitoring, as of June 25, the cost of prebaked anode in China was about 5,551.37 yuan/mt, down 0.25% from last Thursday.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, the aluminum fluoride market lacked clear trend drivers. High raw material costs continued to underpin market prices, and the industry operated with high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, raw material prices dominated the market, downstream demand growth was insufficient, and the market continued the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Next month, cost support for aluminum fluoride will be firm, but due to sluggish terminal procurement and slight downward adjustments in upstream hydrofluoric acid, room for price fluctuations will be limited.

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] Concentrated maintenance-driven production cuts at multiple overseas refineries and persistently rising ocean freight rates jointly tightened the supply of spot coke outside China significantly. This drove up external purchase costs for traders sharply and prompted domestic buyers to proactively slow down their procurement pace, directly causing a sharp pullback in May port arrivals and synchronous price spikes. At this stage, the maintenance cycle at major overseas refineries has yet to conclude, making the strong overseas spot market difficult to reverse in the short term. Import costs for China are likely to fluctuate at highs. SMM forecasts that petroleum coke port arrivals may see a slight recovery in June but will struggle to return to previous highs.

June 26, 2026 – The chromium market continued to decline this week, with the ample supply pattern unchanged and demand remaining weak.

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

This week, the overseas rare earth market remained stable overall. Quotes for cerium oxide, lanthanum oxide, Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium and terbium oxides, and corresponding metals on FOB/CIF terms were largely steady. The mild adjustments in China’s domestic prices had not yet been transmitted outside China, with sluggish trading and continued shrinkage in deliveries. On the project front, the focus was on building non-China supply chains in the West: Australia’s Iluka Eneabba refinery secured a A$1.65 billion federal non-recourse loan and signed a four-year, 1,200 mt magnetic material rare earth offtake agreement with an unnamed global automaker; US-based Energy Fuels planned to acquire German magnetic material producer VAC for $1.9 billion, complemented by a combined $1.45 billion dual-line loan from the US Strategic Capital Office and the Department of Defense to expand capacity at its White Mesa facility; Canada’s Ucore shipped NdPr oxide samples with 99.5% purity for downstream qualification; in South America, Aclara received environmental approval for its Penco project in Chile; local processing projects in Nigeria and South Africa also advanced simultaneously.

SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.

[Demand Support Next Week's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices Generally Stable with Slight Rise] This week, cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel spot prices remained stable, with smooth and orderly market trading. After the steel mills' earlier price hike policy took effect, the market entered a digestion period. Mainstream quotations held steady, with no significant price change. Supply side, steel mills maintained a stable production pace, mainstream resources were released normally, supply was ample and orderly, social inventory stayed within a reasonable range, with no pressure of large inventory buildup or rapid destocking, and supply and demand maintained a weak balance. Demand side, transformer and power equipment enterprises made just-in-time procurement as a normal practice, end-users replenished stock in batches as needed, with no concentrated stockpiling. Transactions were dominated by just-in-time orders, demand provided solid support, and there was no price-cutting to boost volume.