[SMM Analysis] This week (April 27-April 30), Yangshan copper premiums B/L weekly average price range was 53.5-71.5 $/mt, QP June, average price $62.5/mt; warrant weekly average price range was 56-72.5 $/mt, QP May, average price $64.25/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was 22.5-41 $/mt, QP June, average price $31.75/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, from the perspective of invoice structure, the shortage of invoices dated this month at the domestic trade port intensified intraday, with suppliers generally raising their offer prices for cargoes with invoices dated this month, pushing SHFE copper spot premiums from discounts to premiums. Meanwhile, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and cargoes with invoices dated next month widened further, reflecting the continued disruption of the periodic invoice shortage on spot pricing. Affected by this, some downstream enterprises preferred to purchase directly from smelters to secure the issuance of invoices dated this month. Demand side, copper prices remain at elevated levels, and downstream purchasing has generally become cautious, dominated by rigid demand with limited willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the Labour Day holiday falls next week, and some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, which may lead to a certain increase in purchasing, providing periodic support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effects of a tight invoice structure, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week.

In March 2026, China’s refined copper imports totaled 234,600 mt, up 53.33% MoM but down 24.03% YoY. Exports stood at 58,200 mt, down 25.60% MoM and 14.40% YoY.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. Although the spot discounts showed some recovery today, the overall market is still constrained by the continuous increase in supply. In the early session, some suppliers were more willing to hold prices firm, with high-quality copper and some parity copper quotes relatively strong, but actual transactions were sluggish. However, in the second trading period, some suppliers began to offload their stocks, with brands like Tiefeng quoting a discount of 300 yuan/mt, pulling down the overall price of parity copper, indicating that supply pressure remains the dominant factor. From a market structure perspective, the high contango spread between futures contracts continues to encourage suppliers to ship to delivery warehouses, which will continue to divert spot liquidity. At the same time, imported and domestically produced copper continue to arrive, with OLYDA and other sources already seen during the day, continuously replenishing the supply side. On the demand side, although resumption of work is progressing, the overall pace of recovery remains slow, coupled with high copper prices, making it difficult to provide effective support for the discounts. Overall, the continuous increase in supply is suppressing demand recovery, and the oversupply situation in the spot market remains unchanged.

The proportion of 2026 copper cathode long-term contracts has declined significantly compared with previous years, fundamentally reshaping global physical copper trade flows. With fewer volumes locked in under long-term agreements, a larger share of material is now exposed to the spot market, increasing pricing volatility and distribution uncertainty.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, spot premiums and discounts are expected to face downward pressure. During the day, copper prices rose slightly, suppressing downstream demand, and actual market transactions were sluggish; coupled with some suppliers offloading cargo, spot premiums and discounts dropped slightly. Supply side, some price-ratio locked cargoes due to earlier import arbitrage opportunities have arrived at ports for circulation, and subsequent arrivals need to be monitored. Short-term spot supply is expected to gradually increase. Demand side, as some downstream enterprises enter holidays and most top-tier enterprises have completed pre-holiday stockpiling, actual procurement demand shows a weakening trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Next week, copper prices are expected to decline during the day, effectively stimulating downstream restocking. Combined with concentrated stockpiling demand on Friday, against the backdrop of continuously tightening spot cargo availability, this is set to push spot prices from a discount to a premium, with suppliers significantly strengthening their sentiment to hold prices firm. Additionally, some price-ratio cargoes locked in during the previous period when the import window was open are anticipated to arrive gradually, potentially increasing supply in the short term. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises are gradually entering a holiday pace, with most top-tier enterprises having largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling. Actual procurement demand is expected to gradually weaken.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] The Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue exhibiting a weak supply-demand pattern. The contango spread between nearby months widened slightly, further encouraging suppliers to convert some spot cargo into warrants, limiting further tightening of spot liquidity. Some smelters have opted for stockpiling for delivery, coupled with suppliers' evident reluctance to sell and firm price-holding sentiment, resulting in limited tradable spot cargo in the market, which will support the spot discount structure. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have generally slowed their procurement pace, with most having entered the final stage of pre-holiday stockpiling or production adjustment phases. Actual transaction activity is suppressed, and demand-side factors are unlikely to provide sustained boosts to prices. Amid intertwined factors such as high copper prices, tight supply, firm price-holding by suppliers, and pressure from the futures spread, spot discounts are expected to narrow slightly further tomorrow.

[SMM Spot Copper] There was no significant outflow of warrants in the morning, but suppliers were concerned that subsequent warrant outflows would hit spot premiums. Today, there was a noticeable rush to sell. It is expected that after warrants flow out tomorrow, there will be further downside room for spot premiums.

[SMM spot copper] There will still be imported cargo arriving tomorrow. Although the supply in the Shanghai region decreased slightly during the day, there will still be more cargo entering the warehouse subsequently. It is expected that low-priced cargo will achieve double-digit transaction volumes tomorrow.