According to foreign media reports, Lloyds Metals & Energy has been authorized to undertake preparatory works and feasibility activities aimed at assessing the potential redevelopment of the Panguna copper-gold mine in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea, nearly four decades after the operation was shut down. The Autonomous Bougainville Government granted the authorization on August 7, allowing Lloyds to carry out an approved programme of preparatory and feasibility work required to assess and plan the future redevelopment of the mine. Lloyds is acting as the approved development partner of government-owned Bougainville Minerals, which holds the mining lease covering Panguna. The project represents a potentially significant source of long-term copper supply. Panguna's remaining reserves are estimated at approximately 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 19.3 million oz of gold, while Lloyds plans to revalidate the project's resource base as part of the redevelopment process. The mine has remained closed since 1989. The latest authorization follows the granting of a 25-year mining lease to Bougainville Minerals in June, providing a framework for further evaluation of the dormant asset. However, the current approval does not permit construction or copper production to begin. Any progression into those stages will require additional approvals, meaning a potential restart remains subject to further technical, regulatory and development work. The renewed progress at Panguna is notable given the scale of the historical deposit and growing efforts globally to develop additional copper supply. The immediate impact on mine supply remains limited, but successful feasibility work and resource revalidation could provide greater clarity on whether one of the world's largest dormant copper assets can eventually return to production.

On the macro front , copper prices rose first and then fell this week, with the price center lifting WoW. US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly weaker than expected; however, CPI fell to 3.4% YoY and core CPI declined to 2.5%, with inflation largely in line with market expectations, easing concerns about inflation exceeding expectations. In addition, the slowdown in US July PPI growth exceeded expectations, and traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate hike in September, with the latest probability at 32%; LME copper bottomed out. Domestically, the People's Bank of China said it would strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, promptly plan and introduce incremental policies, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, providing some support to market sentiment. Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations and arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to swing back and forth, with all parties sending different signals on ceasefire deadlines, safe shipping routes and control of the strait. The situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain, prompting copper prices to fluctuate at high levels. As of 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 14, 2026, LME copper touched a weekly high of $14,262/mt, then fell to a low of $13,955/mt, down $307/mt from the high, a decline of about 2.15%; the most-traded SHFE copper contract touched a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 108,740 yuan/mt, up 1,610 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 1.50%. Fundamentals side , as of August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 2,200 mt from last Monday to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt recorded in the same period last year. Domestic inventories remained at relatively low levels. Supply side, typhoon weather briefly affected cargo flows in east China at the start of the week; as of August 14, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was 11,615 lots, equivalent to 58,000 mt of metal content; over the same period, registered copper warrants on the SHFE stood at 27,200 mt, and potential deliverable volume was about 2.1 times warrant volume. Open interest in nearby contracts remained significantly higher than current registered warrants; combined with the upcoming delivery, this widened inter-month backwardation and lifted position-rolling costs for suppliers. Suppliers showed greater willingness to sell for cash, boosting spot supply in circulation. Of these, high-quality copper supply remained relatively limited, while non-registered copper supply was ample, and brand differentiation continued. Import side, the nearby LME backwardation structure widened, while the SHFE/LME price ratio for imports weakened; downstream purchase willingness remained low, and actual market deals were sluggish. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season combined with high copper prices meant downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed no significant improvement. For secondary copper, tax-inclusive supply tightened and invoice costs rose; scrap utilization enterprises pushed for lower prices, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, US employment data weakened significantly, CPI and PPI pointed to easing inflation pressures, market expectations for a September rate hike continued to decline, and expectations for domestic incremental policy will also continue to support copper prices. If US economic data strengthen again and the US Fed sends further hawkish signals, renewed rate hike expectations and a stronger US dollar will pressure copper prices. Fundamentals side, COMEX inventories continued to increase, while LME inventories and deliverable stocks continued to decline; supply outside the US tightened, supporting LME copper. In China, after delivery of the SHFE copper 2608 contract ends, nearby open interest pressure will ease and the inter-month backwardation will gradually narrow; domestic copper production and imported arrivals will increase, and combined with the consumption off-season and high copper prices, upside room for SHFE copper will be limited. In the short term, fundamentals will dominate the divergence between SHFE and LME, while macro expectations will mainly provide bottom support for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade at $13,950-$14,150/mt next week, and the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade at 107,000-108,500 yuan/mt. Support for LME copper is stronger than for SHFE copper; LME copper is expected to rise, and SHFE copper will follow with modest gains, with LME outperforming SHFE overall.

Chile's Mining Minister Daniel Massaid that reactivating the mining integration treaty with Argentina could release more than $20.7 billion in investment and add540,000 mt of copper supply to the market annually.

SMM, August 13: Data summary: As of Thursday, August 13, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 2,500 mt WoW to 116,700 mt, with total inventory 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt in the same period last year. By region, the Shanghai region was disrupted by typhoons earlier, slowing the pace of warehouse withdrawals and causing inventory buildup; in the Jiangsu region, warehouse inflows and withdrawals were broadly balanced, with limited inventory changes; in the Guangdong region, arrivals declined and warehouse withdrawals increased as a major downstream producer resumed production, driving sustained declines in Guangdong inventory. Looking ahead, supply side, near-term domestic copper arrivals have tightened somewhat due to export diversions, while imported cargoes continue to arrive at ports, marginally easing domestic supply pressure. Demand side, high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season keep end-use demand weak. Currently, spot copper supply is becoming more ample, and market trading sentiment is subdued. Based on supply-demand fundamentals, nationwide copper social inventory is expected to accumulate modestly next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt, drifted higher early in the session to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then the copper price center shifted straight down, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, while open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in short positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt, immediately touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt early in the session, then the copper price center drifted lower, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, while open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease in long positions.

SMM, August 13: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt. In early trading, it drifted higher to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then fell in a straight line, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of trading before eventually closing at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, while open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, as bears added to positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt and immediately touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt. It then drifted lower, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of trading and eventually closing at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, while open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls reduced positions. On the macro front, US July CPI data was mild, and market expectations for the probability of a September rate hike fell to around 40%. In the Middle East, Iran said the ceasefire did not need to be extended, Pakistan said the memorandum of understanding deadline could be extended, Kuwait foiled an attack plot, and Trump claimed that the US fully controls the Strait of Hormuz. With Middle East uncertainty persisting and inflation data in line with expectations, overnight copper prices shot up and then pulled back. Fundamentals side, supply-side shipments increased near delivery, and available supply became marginally looser. However, high-quality copper remained tight, while non-registered copper supply was ample, creating overall structural divergence. Demand side, high copper prices and the off-season constrained demand, leaving it persistently weak with little improvement. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways with a firmer bias today.

According to foreign media reports, Chile's government will allow state-owned copper producer Codelco to reinvest 100% of its 2025 profit, totaling approximately $2.42 billion, marking the first time the company has been permitted to retain all of its annual earnings since its establishment in 1976. The decision provides additional financial capacity for Codelco as it works to stabilise copper production while undertaking several capital-intensive projects aimed at extending the operating lives of its ageing mines. The company has accumulated more than $20 billion in debt, increasing pressure on its balance sheet as investment requirements remain elevated. In recent years, Codelco had typically been permitted to retain around 30% of its profits, with the majority transferred to the Chilean government. The financial support comes amid persistent weakness in Codelco's copper production. Following an internal review, the company revised its 2025 output to 1.308 million tonnes, almost 27,000 tonnes below its previous estimate. The revised figure represents Codelco's lowest annual production in nearly three decades and is approximately 19% below its 2021 output. Codelco's new leadership has indicated that improving profitability and project execution will take priority over pursuing aggressive production targets. The retained earnings are expected to provide greater flexibility to finance the company's investment programme internally, potentially reducing its reliance on additional borrowing while it works to improve operational performance. From a copper-market perspective, Codelco's ability to stabilise and eventually recover production remains significant given that the company accounts for around 5% of global copper supply. Allowing the miner to retain its entire 2025 profit strengthens its capacity to fund mine-renewal projects, but the impact on future copper supply will ultimately depend on whether the additional capital translates into improved project execution and a sustained recovery in production.

Jubilee Metals Group has received two binding offers for the outright acquisition of its Large Waste Project (LWP) in Zambia at what the company described as a substantial premium to the project’s original acquisition price. A preferred purchaser is expected to be selected before definitive transaction agreements are concluded, potentially providing Jubilee with additional capital to accelerate the development of its remaining copper portfolio in the country. The proposed disposal forms part of Jubilee’s broader strategy to reduce its exposure to higher-capital greenfield development and redirect investment toward the expansion of existing Zambian operations. The company has highlighted the Molefe Mine in particular, where it plans to develop on-site copper processing capacity as part of a lower-capital and lower-risk growth strategy. The approach is intended to make greater use of existing infrastructure while bringing additional copper production online more efficiently. Proceeds from the proposed LWP disposal, together with remaining cash from the sale of Jubilee’s South African operations and other non-core waste assets, are expected to generate total cash inflows approaching $100 million. The additional financial flexibility is expected to support accelerated investment across Jubilee’s Zambian copper operations while strengthening the company’s ability to fund its expansion plans internally. The strategic shift comes as Jubilee continues to work toward expanding its integrated copper operations in Zambia, with the company targeting approximately 25,000 tonnes per year of copper production as its operations scale up. Redirecting capital toward existing mining and processing assets could therefore support a more immediate contribution to production growth than pursuing the Large Waste Project as a standalone greenfield development. From a copper-market perspective, the proposed transaction represents a shift in capital allocation toward nearer-term production growth rather than the development of a new standalone project. By prioritising assets capable of leveraging existing mining and processing infrastructure, Jubilee is seeking to shorten development timelines, reduce execution risk and expand its integrated copper footprint in Zambia. If successfully implemented, the strategy would add to the pipeline of projects supporting Zambia’s medium-term copper supply growth.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as delivery approaches, the inter-month backwardation has further widened to above 300-400 yuan/mt. The cost of contract rollover rises accordingly for suppliers, and their willingness to sell spot copper increases, significantly capping premiums against the front-month contract. Today, sentiment in sales and procurement improved somewhat from yesterday, but as the SHFE copper price center rose above 108,000 yuan/mt, downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, showing limited acceptance of high-priced offers. Meanwhile, some standard-quality copper has fallen to a discount of 10 yuan/mt to near parity, discounts for non-registered copper have widened further, and low-priced sources continue to weigh on mainstream standard-quality copper quotes. Overall, driven by the widening backwardation spread, increased willingness to sell among suppliers near delivery, and high copper prices suppressing consumption, the price center of Shanghai spot copper quotes against the 2608 contract is expected to continue to shift lower tomorrow, possibly showing a discount.

According to foreign media reports, Resolution Copper has awarded approximately $110 million in drilling and underground development contracts as work advances at its proposed copper mine in Arizona, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits. Major Drilling America will undertake deep-hole directional diamond core drilling over the next two-and-a-half years, including drilling from the surface and from approximately 6,800 feet underground. Four large surface drilling rigs are planned for the programme, with two already on site and another two expected by the end of 2026. Redpath USA Corporation will undertake the first phase of underground development, including converting two existing shafts, each approximately 7,000 feet deep, for development activities. The contractor will also install underground infrastructure, construct a mine station at around 6,800 feet below surface and develop approximately 1,500 feet of new tunnels and supporting facilities. The contracts form part of an early phase of Resolution Copper’s planned $500 million investment programme, following completion of key environmental review and land-exchange processes earlier this year. The project is jointly owned by Rio Tinto with a 55% stake and BHP with 45%. If developed, Resolution Copper is expected to have the capacity to meet up to a quarter of annual US copper demand. However, a final investment decision remains subject to further data collection, permitting and partner approvals. From a copper-market perspective, the latest contract awards mark another step in advancing a potentially significant source of long-term US mine supply. While commercial production remains dependent on an eventual investment decision and further development, progress at Resolution is increasingly relevant as the US seeks to strengthen domestic copper supply amid rising requirements from power infrastructure, manufacturing and electrification.