Since March 4, 2026, secondary copper rod has shifted to a premium of 200-400 yuan/mt against the most-traded futures contract. Meanwhile, the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod narrowed sharply from around 1,200 yuan/mt to about 300 yuan/mt

[SMM Analysis: Procurement Pressure Eases, Operating Rate Rebounds] According to SMM's survey data, the operating rate of secondary copper rod producers this week was 27.31%, up 5.17 percentage points WoW and down 7.2 percentage points YoY. Meanwhile, the average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,089 yuan/mt this week, widening by 7 yuan/mt MoM. In addition, the average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 414 yuan/mt, widening by 226 yuan/mt MoM...

【The Changing Landscape of the Copper Market Under the Shadow of Sino-US Tariffs: Refined Copper Rod Production in April May Exceed Expectations】According to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod producers in March was 69.65%, up 13.81 percentage points MoM, but 1.6 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of refined copper rod producers in March decreased by 1.49 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 80.40%, medium-sized enterprises was 53.13%, and small enterprises was 54.93%.

SMM Analysis: Copper Market Dynamics Under the Cloud of Sino-US Tariffs, Refined Copper Rod Production in April May Exceed Expectations. According to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod producers in March was 69.65%, up 13.81 percentage points MoM, 1.6 percentage points below expectations, and down 1.49 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 80.40%, medium-sized enterprises was 53.13%, and small enterprises was 54.93%.

Last week, copper prices jumped initially and then pulled back, with LME copper closing down 0.7% to $9,783/mt, while the most-traded SHFE copper contract closed at 80,420 yuan/mt. On the industry side, inventories at the three major exchanges decreased by 32,000 mt WoW, with SHFE inventories down 21,000 mt to 235,000 mt, LME inventories down 12,000 mt to 213,000 mt, and COMEX inventories up 1,000 mt to 86,000 mt. Inventories in the Shanghai Bonded Zone increased by 11,000 mt. Spot copper imports remained at a loss during the week, with limited import supply driving Yangshan copper premiums higher. In the spot market, the LME Cash/3M discount widened to $54.5/mt last week, while domestic futures first rose and then fell, with the spot-futures price spread rising. On Friday, spot prices against futures in Shanghai were at a discount of 5 yuan/mt. In the copper scrap market, the price difference between primary metal and scrap narrowed to 1,530 yuan/mt last week, reducing the substitution advantage of copper scrap. The operating rate of secondary copper rod producers continued to decline during the week. According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of refined copper rod producers fell more than expected last week, with demand marginally weakening. On the price side, the US may impose tariffs on copper in the coming weeks. Although the uncertainty over the tariff level still poses volatility risks, the trend of global refined copper shifting to the US has halted, easing the expected shortage outside the US. Meanwhile, concerns over demand due to the potential tariffs and the US's upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" have intensified. On the raw material side, copper concentrate TCs continued to decline and have yet to bottom out. However, with increased exports of copper ore inventories from Indonesia and Panama, as well as increased smelting maintenance both domestically and overseas, TCs are expected to gradually stabilize, and trading based on raw material shortages may marginally weaken. Overall, short-term copper prices still face resistance, while attention should be paid to China's PMI data and policy expectations. This week, the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade in the range of 79,000-81,500 yuan/mt, while LME copper 3M is expected to trade in the range of $9,500-9,950/mt.

[SMM Analysis: Multiple Factors Impact Operating Levels of Scrap Anode Plate Producers] According to SMM, during the week of February 21-27, 2025, the weekly operating rate of Chinese scrap anode plate producers was 55.89%, down 3.25% WoW; the weekly operating rate of secondary copper rod enterprises was 33.67%, up 2.92% WoW...

At the end of November, due to tight supply and market demand for cargoes with invoices dated that month, spot premiums in Shanghai slightly increased.

Since the beginning of this year, due to weak demand for copper cathode, spot premiums were mostly negative except around monthly contract delivery.

In recent years, domestic copper rod and wire producers have continuously upgraded their technology and expanded their capacity, effectively enhancing the quality and competitiveness of their products.

On the macroeconomic front, the US June CPI data recorded 3.0%, down 0.1% MoM, lower than market expectations.