Driven by recovering risk appetite and China's peak demand season, copper prices both in China and abroad bottomed out since late March. However, as SHFE copper returned to the 100,000 level, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts increased, and futures prices shifted to range-bound consolidation. After the Labour Day holiday, copper prices quickly resumed their upward momentum. Today, prices opened higher with a gap and continued to rise, with SHFE copper just one step away from the record high set at the end of January, while LME copper hit a new closing high. What is fueling such strong confidence behind this rally? Deepening Ore-Side Vulnerability Intensifies Supply Disruption Concerns Since the suspension of First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine at the end of 2023, spot TC for copper concentrates in China has been caught in an endless downward spiral. Falling from around $80/dmt at the end of 2023, it largely dropped to single-digit levels and moved sideways in 2024. Entering 2025, it further plunged into negative territory, mainly due to successive production disruptions at world-class copper mines including Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula, Codelco's El Teniente, and Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Entering 2026, global major copper ore supply growth remained limited, and the ore tightness showed no improvement. The latest data showed that spot TC for copper concentrates in China had fallen below -$90/dmt. With long-term contract TC at zero and spot TC declines accelerating, domestic smelters' production profits mainly relied on surging sulphuric acid prices and firm by-product prices of gold, silver, and other metals to compensate. It was reported that current sulphuric acid revenue could already cover smelters' procurement costs for copper concentrates and part of the processing costs, enabling domestic smelters to maintain relatively high operating rates, and the ore tightness had not yet notably transmitted to the smelting side. It is worth noting that sulphuric acid is not only a by-product of pyrometallurgy but also a core production material for SX-EW copper. For every 1 mt of copper produced, 5–6 mt of sulphuric acid is consumed. Sulphuric acid costs account for 40%–50% of total SX-EW copper production costs, and SX-EW copper production accounts for approximately 20% of global mine copper production. Since the beginning of this year, sulphuric acid prices surged sharply due to multiple factors, and ex-China sulphuric acid supply was periodically disrupted, raising concerns that copper supply in some countries could be affected. Focusing on the reasons behind the sulphuric acid price surge: on one hand, since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been broadly restricted and has recently faced a dual blockade by Iran and the US. Sulphur exports from the Middle East have been impacted, with the DRC and Zambia being the most concentrated SX-EW copper producing regions that are highly dependent on sulphur imports from the Middle East. As sulphur supply has been constrained, sulphuric acid prices have naturally risen in tandem, not only raising local SX-EW copper production costs but also potentially triggering further production cuts if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues and sulphur disruption risks escalate. On the other hand, to prioritise domestic spring ploughing phosphate fertiliser production and support new energy industry expansion, China has imposed a phased ban on sulphuric acid exports according to industry sources. Chile has a relatively high dependence on Chinese sulphuric acid, with SX-EW copper accounting for around 20% of its output, and the market is also concerned that Chile's SX-EW copper production may be affected. In addition, against the backdrop of an already fragile copper ore supply, frequent news shocks from outside China recently have undoubtedly intensified market concerns. Last week, market rumours suggested that the full restart of Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine, which declared force majeure in September last year, had been delayed by one year, driving SHFE copper sharply higher in the afternoon of 8 May. However, according to the latest update from Freeport-McMoRan, the company still expects Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine to fully resume production by the end of 2027, reaffirming the plan outlined last month and refuting reports that production resumptions could be delayed to 2028. Furthermore, yesterday Peru declared an emergency energy decree due to a natural gas pipeline explosion. Peru's copper production reached 2.63 million mt in metal content last year, ranking third globally. Copper mining and smelting are relatively sensitive to power stability, and the market is concerned that Peru's energy strain may disrupt local copper supply. Overall, China's copper cathode production remains relatively stable, but some major global miners lowered their full-year production guidance in Q1, the ore tightness persists, sulphuric acid supply — a core raw material for ex-China SX-EW copper — is constrained, and there are multiple supply disruption themes on the copper supply side, which can easily boost copper prices once the macro front stabilises. Global Copper Visible Inventory Divergence: China Destocking Provides Support Last year, driven by the US government's threat to impose additional tariffs on imported copper, global copper continued to flow into the US, causing COMEX copper inventories to accumulate continuously while copper inventories in non-US regions remained low, providing sustained support for copper prices. In February this year, the US Supreme Court struck down most of the tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration in 2025. The Trump administration subsequently turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to push new global tariff policies. On 7 May, the US Court of International Trade issued a ruling stating that the legal basis for imposing a 10% global import tariff was invalid. The tug-of-war between US courts and the Trump administration over tariffs has continued recently, but the market has certain expectations that the US may subsequently impose additional tariffs on imported copper. Under such expectations, the price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper has shown a slight strengthening trend recently, meaning copper in LME warehouses still has the potential to flow to the US. Specifically, COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound since mid-April, rising from around 590,000 mt to the latest 620,000 mt, again hitting a multi-year high. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories pulled back from around 400,000 mt in mid-April, declining to 397,700 mt on 6 May. They have rebounded with fluctuations recently, but overall inventories have not exceeded the over-12-year high set in mid-April. SHFE copper inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week, currently dropping to 181,300 mt, the lowest since the beginning of the year. Data source: Webstock Inc. Overall, on the macro front, there are currently disagreements in US-Iran negotiations, but both sides continue the ceasefire with no recent signs of escalation in conflict. Energy prices pulled back from late April levels, inflation concerns eased somewhat, the US dollar index was in the doldrums, and combined with the AI boom lifting global stock markets, market risk appetite was moderate, providing a fertile ground for copper prices to strengthen. Focusing on copper's own fundamentals, inventories outside China remained elevated, but significant prior destocking of China inventories provided support. The ore tightness was difficult to reverse, and supply-side narratives were abundant, meaning copper prices may still hold up well. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation remains the biggest macro variable, and the policy path following the Fed Chairman's power transition also deserves close attention. (Webstock Composite)

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Peru's energy crisis has raised market concerns over copper ore supply. Copper prices surged significantly during the night session, and end-users' acceptance of the current high copper prices and spot discounts has declined. According to SMM, downstream orders dropped sharply during the day, with purchasing sentiment subdued and dominated by rigid demand. In terms of market performance, suppliers continuously lowered their offers, and spot cargo has shifted from premiums to discounts, with the discount margin widening. However, Friday marks the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2605 contract. As delivery approaches, spot discounts are widening under the Contango price spread structure, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses is increasing. The delivery logic is expected to provide bottom support for spot discounts, limiting further downside room.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper semis in April were 452,300 mt, with cumulative imports from January to April of 1.5672 million mt, down 9.8% YoY; China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in April were 2.3516 million mt, with cumulative imports from January to April of 9.9146 million mt, down 0.8% YoY. Export side, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in April were 597,600 mt, with cumulative exports from January to April of 2.0533 million mt, up 8.9% YoY. Below are the detailed data (unit: 100 million yuan RMB): Note: "Flash data" refers to preliminary monthly aggregated customs statistics, subject to the official monthly data formed after corrections to original statistical records. (Wenhua Consolidated)

[SMM Analysis] Sulphuric Acid: A Key Variable Reshaping Copper Pricing Logic

Jinchengxin (603979) stated on an interactive platform on April 28 that the company's copper ore products saw inventory increases at year-end 2025 and in Q1 2026, mainly because the local rainy season (November to April) affected road conditions and transportation around the Dikulushi copper mine in the DRC, resulting in produced ore products not yet being sold for exports.

On April 13, an SMM team, comprised of Jianhua Ye, Industry Research Director, Chundi Feng, Expert at Industry Research Institute, and Jenny Wu, Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, paid a visit to ZCCM INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS PLC (ZCCM-IH).

On April 13, Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of the Industry Research Department of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Feng Chundi, Expert of the Industry Research Department of SMM, and Wu Tao, Overseas Marketing Manager of SMM's Copper and Tin Division, visited ZCCM INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS PLC (ZCCM-IH). They were warmly received by Chitalu Kabalika, Industrial Metals and Minerals Investment Analyst at ZCCM-IH, Kambole Mwanakatwe, Precious Metals and Minerals Investment Analyst, among others. During this visit, both parties leveraged their respective core business strengths and conducted in-depth discussions on the compilation methodology of SMM's copper price and copper concentrates price indices, their influence on industry pricing, and the transmission mechanisms in international markets, exploring the reference value of these price indices for Zambian copper ore trade and mining project investment. Discussions also covered ZCCM-IH's copper mine asset operations, resource reserves, and capacity planning, among other topics, jointly exploring the local copper mining industry's supply-demand pattern, cost landscape, and medium and long-term development trends. In addition, both parties exchanged views on potential cooperation directions, including information sharing across the copper industry chain, joint analysis of market trends, and collaboration on ex-China mining resources. This exchange effectively connected the business synergies between both parties, deepened mutual understanding and industry consensus, and laid a solid communication foundation for subsequent positive interactions in copper industry data services, market research, and resource collaboration, as well as for exploring diversified cooperation opportunities and pursuing mutual benefits. Introduction to ZCCM INVESTMENTS HOLDINGS PLC ZCCM Investments Holdings Plc is a diversified mining investment holding company with a strategic focus on Zambia's mining and energy sectors. The group's investment portfolio covers commodities including copper, gold, amethyst, manganese, limestone, and electricity/thermal energy. VISION : "To be a world-class mining and energy investment company for the benefit of the Zambian people." MISSION : "To sustainably create tangible wealth for the Zambian people and all stakeholders." TAGLINE : "Unlocking national wealth value for all stakeholders." The above vision and mission reflect the company's renewed focus on the mining sector and the strategic theme of " Investing S.M.A.R.T.L.Y ." "SMARTLY" represents seven strategic pillars: ZCCM-IH is committed to Sustainability , deeply integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles into its business model; the team proactively Managed related operations, driving portfolio and revenue growth through business Accretive value and agility; while ensuring investments are Risk mitigated , advancing projects in a Timely and efficient manner; upholding the goal of business **Longevity**, and ultimately delivering returns on investment and maximizing shareholder value (Yields). VALUES : The realization of our vision and mission is underpinned by the enterprise's deeply rooted core values. These principles guide all actions of the enterprise. The following values form the cornerstone of our corporate culture. ZCCM-IH Portfolio ZCCM-IH holds a unique strategic position in Zambia's mining and energy sectors, with core interests in both fields. The following is a list of enterprises covered by the ZCCM-IH portfolio: ZCCM-IH Growth Portfolio Future Outlook The ZCCM-IH Strategic Plan, 2020-2026 sets out the core direction for the company's development, helping the enterprise fully unlock asset value, maximize asset returns, and deliver tangible benefits to all shareholders. During this phase, the company focuses on three core strategic priorities: deepening engagement in the mining sector and advancing diversification of mineral product categories; innovating revenue generation models, developing diversified income streams, and unlocking the value of the existing asset portfolio; and strengthening operational management and financial control capabilities to build and continuously enhance long-term core shareholder value. The company is deeply committed to social responsibility, dedicated to creating sound and compliant business performance, sustainable development outcomes, and social benefits for shareholders, local communities, and Zambia as a whole. Leveraging the comprehensive strengths accumulated through over fifty years of deep engagement in the mining industry, combined with a professional and experienced core team, the company is expected to continue driving the implementation of its strategic plans and sustained growth, while consolidating existing development achievements. Scheduled to be held on October 13-14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. You are welcome to participate! Conference Contact : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

On April 23 (Thursday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global copper cathode market is expected to shift to an oversupply of approximately 96,000 mt in 2026, reversing the previously forecast supply deficit of 150,000 mt, due to slowing demand growth and increased secondary copper production. The organization also forecast that the copper cathode surplus will widen to 377,000 mt in 2027, but warned that geopolitical risks including wars in the Middle East and shifts in trade flows could impact the market's supply-demand balance. ICSG expects global copper cathode consumption to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous estimate of 2.1%, with consumption growth of 2% projected for 2027. China's copper demand is expected to grow 1.9% in 2026, while demand growth in other regions is projected at 1.3%. ICSG added that copper consumption in the EU and Japan will remain subdued, while Asia will continue to be the primary driver of global demand growth. In terms of supply, global copper cathode production is expected to increase only 0.4% in 2026, mainly constrained by limited copper concentrates supply, though increased secondary copper production will partially offset this constraint; with higher copper concentrates production and new capacity coming online, copper cathode production growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2027. ICSG stated that global copper ore production is expected to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previously forecast 2.3%, due to slower production growth in the DRC, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as operational constraints at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines following issues in 2025. The organization expects global copper ore production to grow 2.3% in 2027, supported by the gradual ramp-up of new capacity, improved production in Chile and Zambia, and higher mine utilization rates in Indonesia and the DRC. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM, April 17: On April 14, Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of the Industry Research Department of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Feng Chundi, Expert of the Industry Research Institute of SMM's Industry Research Department, and Wu Tao, SMM Copper and Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, visited NFC Africa Mining PLC. They were warmly received by Wang Jingjun, President of the Zambia Chinese-funded Mining Enterprises Association and Chairman of NFC Africa Mining PLC. During this visit, both parties engaged in in-depth discussions and candid exchanges on core topics including NFC Africa Mining PLC's copper ore resources and production plans, product specifications and pricing rules, mining processes and equipment configuration, human resource allocation, as well as costs, taxes, and asset depreciation. During the exchange, Wang Jingjun provided a detailed introduction to the basic operations of NFC Africa Mining. The Chambishi copper mine of NFC Africa Mining consists of the main ore body, the west ore body, and the southeast ore body. The company is currently striving to build a first-class technology-driven mining company underpinned by "advanced technology, green processes, high-end equipment, and lean management," with a cumulative total investment of $1.55 billion. The company currently produces approximately 74,000 mt of copper metal content annually and employs 5,900 Zambian staff. Wang Jingjun has led the enterprise in deeply cultivating the mining sector, continuously forging ahead in promoting China-Zambia friendly cooperation, mutual development, and high-quality corporate growth. Meanwhile, as President of the Zambia Chinese-funded Mining Enterprises Association, he also discussed the important role of the association: leveraging the association platform to consolidate the strength of Chinese-funded enterprises, advancing compliance-based operational management and compliance training, and communicating and voicing concerns on relevant policies on behalf of Chinese-funded enterprises to the appropriate authorities. This exchange not only enhanced mutual trust and understanding between both parties but also laid a solid foundation for deepening future cooperation and achieving mutual benefits, helping both sides achieve higher-quality collaborative development in the non-ferrous metals sector. About NFC Africa Mining PLC NFC Africa Mining PLC (hereinafter referred to as "NFC Africa Mining") represents the starting point of China's non-ferrous metals industry's "Going Global" strategy in Africa. Approved by the central government, it was established in Zambia in 1998. China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited and Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Investment Holdings PLC hold 85% and 15% of the company's equity respectively, with the Zambian government holding one special share. It currently serves as the president unit of the Zambia Chinese-funded Mining Enterprises Association. The southeast ore body of the Chambishi copper mine is the first kilometer-deep shaft mine built by China in Africa, hailed as a "landmark project of China-Africa cooperation." NFC Africa Mining is the first mining company in Zambia to introduce paste backfill green mining technology and a pioneering mining company in Africa to build a "digital mine" model project. The company was named "Advanced Collective of Central State-Owned Enterprises" twice. The "NFC Africa Mining PLC Outstanding Employee Family Open Day" was recognized as an "Excellent Case of Cross-Cultural Integration in Overseas Image Building of Chinese Enterprises." The NFC Africa Mining PLC Chambishi Copper Mine mining area consists of the main ore body, the west ore body, and the southeast ore body. is scheduled to be held on October 13–14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. Welcome to participate! Conference Contact : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

According to data from the online query platform of the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 2,629,996.23 mt, up 13.84% MoM and 9.99% YoY. Shipments from major supplying countries such as Chile, Peru, and Mongolia all increased to varying degrees. However, spot copper concentrate TCs in China remained at low levels, and the tight ore supply situation continued. Below is the supply breakdown from major source countries for China's copper ore imports since March 2020: Data source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Composite)