CopperTech Metals has postponed its planned US initial public offering (IPO), citing increased volatility across the global copper mining equity sector. The company had planned to raise approximately US$423.5 million by offering 23.5 million shares, targeting a valuation of up to US$3.57 billion. According to the company, the decision was made after carefully assessing current market conditions and heightened volatility in copper-related equities. Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US Section 232 copper investigation, shifting supply expectations and broader capital market volatility have weighed on investor sentiment. CopperTech, established by Vedanta Resources, owns and operates Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) in Zambia.

When asked, "The company extracts the following by-products during copper smelting: rhenium, germanium, indium, gallium, bismuth, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, antimony, and cadmium. Is this true? And what was the annual production of each in tonnes in 2025? Please reply, thank you!" Tongling Nonferrous Metals responded on the investor interaction platform on June 29 that the company fully leverages its comprehensive resource utilization advantages, recovering associated platinum, palladium, rhenium, and other rare and scattered metals during the copper smelting process to enhance by-product profit contribution, and the overall production volume accounts for a relatively small share. The company's overall operating performance of the rare and scattered metals business in 2025 has been reflected in the annual report. Tongling Nonferrous Metals replied to investor questions on the investor interaction platform on June 29: (1) The company's main business includes copper ore mining and beneficiation, smelting, and copper processing, and it has competitive advantages in mineral resource reserves, copper smelting, and deep processing. It is one of the most comprehensive integrated copper producers in China, with horizontal expansion and vertical extension of its industry chain, giving it a competitive edge in industry chain integration. (2) As of now, the specific projects related to the industrial park mentioned above are still in the preliminary survey and proposal evaluation stage; no final decisions have been made, nor have internal reviews or relevant administrative approval procedures been carried out. There is a degree of uncertainty about project implementation. The company will strictly comply with information disclosure laws, regulations, and regulatory requirements, and will perform its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner when the projects achieve substantive progress and meet disclosure thresholds. All material matters of the company are subject to the formal announcements published on the designated information disclosure media. Investors are advised to invest rationally and be mindful of investment risks. (3) Regarding the client situation of Jinxin Copper Branch, please refer to the company's announcements on statutory information disclosure platforms. Tongling Nonferrous Metals stated on the investor interaction platform on June 29: The copper wire rod capacity of Jinxin Copper Branch is in the process of gradual release; subsequently, based on market demand and its existing capacity, it will effectively plan capacity to ensure efficient resource allocation. As of now, Jinxin Copper's orders are normal and all operations are proceeding in an orderly manner. For specific orders and shipment volumes, please refer to the company's announcements on the statutory information disclosure platform. In response to the questions: "1. What was the average selling price of the 6.21 million mt of sulphuric acid produced in 2025? And what were the sales volume and average selling price of sulphuric acid in the first five months of this year? 2. What is the specific reason for the asset impairment loss of 1.627 billion yuan in Q1 2026? With non-ferrous metal prices generally rising, is the company's earlier provision for inventory impairment hiding profits? After the inventory for which impairment has been provided is sold, will profit be restored by an equivalent amount? 3. The company holds 600 million shares of Tongguan Copper Foil. Based on today's closing price of 200 yuan, the equity position has an unrealized gain of 119 billion yuan. Does the company plan to sell at an opportune time to realize the investment gain?" Tongling Nonferrous Metals replied on the investor interaction platform on June 26: 1. Regarding sulphuric acid sales volume and average selling price: Sulphuric acid is a by-product of the company's smelting process, and its selling price is market-oriented, affected by multiple factors including regional supply-demand patterns and demand from downstream fertilizer and chemical industries. The company's overall operating performance of the sulphuric acid business in 2025 has been reflected in the annual report, and 2026 operating data should be referred to in subsequent periodic reports disclosed by the company. The company will continue to monitor the sulphuric acid market and dynamically optimize production and sales pace to maximize the operating profit of by-products. 2. For the reasons for the Q1 2026 asset impairment provision, please refer to the company's Announcement on Asset Impairment Provision (Announcement No.: 2026-024) disclosed on cninfo.com.cn on April 29, 2026. The company strictly follows accounting standards for enterprise accounting treatment, and there is no hiding of profits. According to accounting standards, when inventory for which a price decline provision has been made is subsequently sold, the corresponding inventory price decline provision is simultaneously written off, reducing the current period's operating costs, thereby positively restoring profit for the period. However, it is not an equivalent amount; the write-off amount is capped at the originally provided amount for that inventory and will not generate additional profit beyond the original provision. 3. Tongguan Copper Foil is a controlled subsidiary of the company, and the company holds 72.38% of its equity. Its financial data are fully consolidated into the company's consolidated financial statements. From an accounting perspective, fluctuations in the secondary market share price of a controlled subsidiary represent changes in market valuation only. In cases where equity is not disposed of, or is partially disposed of without losing control, it will not affect the net profit in the company's consolidated statements for the current period. As of now, the company has no plan to sell Tongguan Copper Foil shares opportunistically. If equity disposal is involved in the future, the company will strictly comply with state-owned asset supervision and securities regulatory requirements, fulfilling review procedures and information disclosure obligations. An investor asked on the investor interaction platform: Dear Board Secretary, regarding the Mirador Phase II (Mirador) Mining Contract Amendment (Adenda), its status was updated from "awaiting signature" to "signed/notification process" when a shareholder inquired on April 21, 2026. May I ask whether ECSA, controlled by the company, has now received formal notification of the signing of the mining contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project? Tongling Nonferrous Metals stated on the investor interaction platform on May 21 that as of now, China Railway Construction Tongguan Investment Co., Ltd. (of which ECSA is the main operating entity for the Mirador copper mine) has not yet received formal notification of the signing of the mining contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project. Please refer to the company's announcements on the statutory information disclosure platform for updates. Tongling Nonferrous Metals released its Q1 report showing: The company achieved operating revenue of 64.67 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 83.61% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.338 billion yuan, up 19.12% YoY; and net cash flow from operating activities was 6.632 billion yuan, up 473.09% YoY. Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced in its Q1 report matters concerning project delays at a controlled subsidiary: In recent years, Ecuador's political situation has been volatile with frequent personnel changes, and leadership changes at the competent ministry have led to personnel changes at the working level, greatly affecting policy continuity and administrative efficiency, thereby impacting the progress of signing the Mining Contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project. Since 2025, the company and ECSA have strengthened engagement with the relevant authorities of Ecuador's new government through multiple channels and at various levels. The latest round of preliminary negotiations for the Mining Contract for the Mirador Phase II copper mine project has been completed and submitted to the competent ministry for review. Given the significant differences in investment and operating environments between Ecuador and China, the volatile political situation, and the lack of stability in the legal environment, the specific timing for signing the Mining Contract for the Mirador Phase II project is still uncertain. As a result of the aforementioned factors, the formal commissioning of the Mirador Phase II project, once completed, can only commence after its Mining Contract is signed. For details, please refer to the company's Announcement on Subsidiary Project Delay disclosed on cninfo.com.cn on January 5, 2026. Tongling Nonferrous Metals disclosed in its 2025 annual report: In 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 172.825 billion yuan, up 18.68% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.415 billion yuan, down 14.02% YoY. Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced: In 2025, the company overcame unfavourable factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and low TCs, and carried out in-depth activities to increase production and efficiency, and reduce costs and tap potential. In 2025, the company produced 197,700 mt of copper in self-produced copper concentrates, 1.9548 million mt of copper cathode, 400,700 mt of semi-finished copper products, 6.2185 million mt of sulphuric acid, 20.51 mt of gold, 579.55 mt of silver, 376,200 mt of iron ore concentrates, and 382,100 mt of sulphur concentrates, successfully achieving the annual production tasks. Regarding its main business activities, Tongling Nonferrous Metals stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large-scale integrated copper producer covering copper mining and beneficiation, smelting, processing, and trading, with main products including copper cathode, sulphuric acid, gold, silver, copper foil, and copper plate/sheet and strip. The company has deep technical accumulation, a leading industry position, and significant competitive advantages in copper mining and beneficiation, copper smelting, and copper foil processing. The 2026 operating plan disclosed by Tongling Nonferrous Metals in its 2025 annual report shows: 1. Core operating indicators In 2026, the company will strive to achieve various core product production targets, specifically: 227,600 mt of copper in self-produced copper concentrates, 2.108 million mt of copper cathode, 455,000 mt of semi-finished copper products, 22,000 kg of gold, 650 mt of silver, 7.07 million mt of sulphuric acid, 344,000 mt of iron ore concentrates (60%), and 308,000 mt of sulphur concentrates (35%), anchoring production and operational objectives with quantified indicators. A research report from Guosen Securities published on April 22 indicated that the company's copper smelting segment's profitability is industry-leading. In 2025, Jinlong Copper achieved a net profit of 800 million yuan; if simply converted by capacity, Jinguan Copper Branch's net profit was approximately 1.22 billion yuan. Excluding the newly commissioned Jinxin Branch, the three existing smelters had a combined annual net profit of 2.64 billion yuan. The decent profit of copper smelters including the company in 2025 can be attributed to factors such as raw material inventory cycles, high sulphuric acid prices, high copper smelting recovery rates, and high prices for by-product gold and silver. Compared with several other large copper smelters, whose main smelters had net profit margins mostly around 0.5%, Tongling Nonferrous Metals' main smelters all had net profit margins around 2%, significantly above the industry average. Mirador Phase II may come online in August. The company expects to produce 228,000 mt of copper concentrates in 2026. Based on past trends, domestic copper ore production is 50,000 mt per year, and Mirador Phase I production is 130,000 mt per year, so Mirador Phase II is scheduled to produce 50,000 mt in 2026, implying production start-up around August 2026. In 2025, China Railway Construction Tongguan Investment achieved a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, and the Mirador project company reached a net profit of 3.79 billion yuan, demonstrating strong profitability. Mirador Phase II mining and beneficiation costs are only about 70% of Phase I. If Phase I costs are 28,000 yuan/mt, a rough calculation puts Phase II costs at 19,600 yuan/mt. If by-product gold and silver partially offset copper costs, Mirador Phase II costs could be negative. Risk warnings: risk of wild swings in copper prices, risk of copper concentrate TC declines.

The U.S. administration is considering taking equity stakes in critical minerals companies to strengthen domestic supply chains. Copper mining, refining and recycling projects could potentially benefit from the initiative.

At the 2026 SMM Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference, SMM VP Shirley Wang noted that copper differs fundamentally from nickel — no single country controls pricing, and the global supply map continues to shift while most analytical models still rely on last decade's data. Recycled copper now accounts for nearly 40% of global supply, far above nickel's 22%, making secondary supply a key structural variable. To improve data quality, SMM has opened a ground-level office in Zambia to collect first-hand copper mining data rather than relying on satellite-derived estimates.

[SMM Analysis]: Copper-related Policy Shifts Across the Americas: Copper is no longer merely an industrial metal — it is rapidly emerging as a strategic resource. From mining policy reforms in Chile and Peru, to the U.S. Section 232 investigation and the strengthening of North American critical minerals strategies, copper policies across the Americas in 2025–2026 are set to exert profound influence over global copper supply-demand balances, smelting dynamics, and copper price volatility.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 92,520 yuan/mt, swung wildly in early trading, then fluctuated upward to probe 93,040 yuan/mt after the day session opened. Subsequently, the copper price center fluctuated downward to touch a low of 92,020 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward again, ultimately closing at 92,660 yuan/mt, up 0.42%. Open interest stood at 9,125 lots, down 263 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 7,298 lots, indicating bears reducing positions. On the macro front, the US suspended its originally scheduled military action against Iran on Tuesday, and the US dollar index weakened, providing bullish support for copper prices; an Ebola outbreak emerged in the DRC, which has not yet affected core copper mining areas, but the market has begun to worry about the stability of the global copper ore supply chain. Fundamentals side, on the supply end, affected by concentrated maintenance at smelters, copper cathode arrivals in China decreased, compounded by limited imported copper replenishment, and the spot market supply was generally tight; on the demand end, as copper prices fluctuated at highs, downstream enterprises showed weak purchase willingness, with the market mostly maintaining rigid-demand purchases, and overall transactions showed no significant recovery. The SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 104,530 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 92,660 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 104,705 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -175, maintaining an inversion that continued to widen from the previous day.

When asked, "What were the sales volume and pricing of copper foil produced by your company in April 2026?" North Copper responded on May 19 via the investor interaction platform: The company's copper foil sales are performing well with balanced production and sales; the product is priced and sold on a market-based basis according to market supply and demand. North Copper also responded on May 19: The company's share price fluctuations are influenced by a combination of factors including the macro environment, market sentiment, capital flows, and the company's own performance. The recent share price fluctuations have been largely in line with the trend of publicly listed firms in the copper sector. The company has always focused on enhancing intrinsic value as the core of its market capitalization management, and is committed to the long-term alignment of corporate value and market performance through focusing on core business growth, optimizing governance structure, strengthening information disclosure, and implementing shareholder return plans. The content of the earnings briefing announced by North Copper on May 8 showed: 1 What is the current construction progress of the new 10kt rolled copper foil production line, and in which month of 2026 is it expected to be completed? North Copper responded: Some production lines of the company's 50,000 mt/year high performance rolled copper strip and foil and 2 million m² CCL project have reached the intended usable condition. The main products include high performance copper and copper alloy strip and rolled copper foil, of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. 2 What caused the negative operating cash flow, and what is the impact on the company going forward? North Copper responded: The negative net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 was mainly due to two reasons: first, rising non-ferrous metal prices led to higher overall value of copper raw materials, increasing capital occupation; second, under the impact of geopolitical factors, international shipping rerouting and tight domestic railway dispatching caused copper raw material arrivals at the plant to be delayed versus plan, extending the capital turnover period. The company's current cash flow level can effectively support daily operations and debt repayment. Going forward, the company will take targeted measures to improve the situation. 3 Questions regarding the progress of Hujiaoyu mine asset injection. Specifically: Has the preliminary preparation work for the asset injection (such as auditing, valuation, and plan evaluation) been initiated? Does the company plan to complete this asset injection within 2026? Are there any material obstacles or uncertainties in the process that need to be disclosed to investors? Beyond strictly fulfilling the commitment to inject within 24 months, does the company's management have a clear goal and timetable to "strive for early completion"? What specific stage has the related work progressed to? North Copper responded: Hujiaoyu Mining Company, a subsidiary of the company's controlling shareholder Zhongtiaoshan Group, obtained the mining permit for newly added reserves on March 27, 2026. Preliminary work for obtaining the mine safety production permit is currently being actively advanced, and the conditions for injection into the publicly listed firm are not yet met. The company will initiate the asset injection process in a timely manner after all the above mining permits are obtained, fulfilling the relevant commitments. 4 After the completion of the 50,000 mt rolled copper foil and strip project, are there any further plans for new copper foil capacity construction and expansion? North Copper responded: Some production lines of the company's 50,000 mt/year high performance rolled copper strip and foil and 2 million m² CCL project have not yet been completed, and capacity has not been fully released. There are currently no new copper foil capacity expansion plans. 5 How does the company's management plan to manage market capitalization? North Copper responded: In accordance with the requirements of Regulatory Guidelines for Listed Companies No. 10 — Market Capitalization Management, the company will make comprehensive utilization of lawful and compliant methods, promote positive interaction between value and market capitalization through improving operational quality, strengthening information disclosure, and deepening investor communication, continuously improve and strengthen market capitalization management, and carry out scientific, effective, and compliant market capitalization management practices. 6 Given the strong Q1 2026 results, the share price has underperformed peers with weaker results. Does the company have any undisclosed adverse events? North Copper responded: In addition to operating performance, the company's share price is also influenced by various factors including the international situation, policy environment, financial market liquidity, capital market atmosphere, and investor psychological expectations. The company strictly fulfills its information disclosure obligations in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and there are no material matters that should have been disclosed but were not. 7 What new progress will the company make in smart mines and digital factories this year? North Copper responded: The company will continue to advance the construction of smart mines and digital factories, deepen and expand new scenarios for digital-intelligent integration applications, and accelerate the implementation of the Tongkuangyu mine smart mine project. Within the year, the company plans to complete the installation of system equipment for the data center, integrated management and control hall, and other facilities. The digital-intelligent building is expected to be completed and put into operation. The 5G smart communication hub, industrial-grade ring network, and LHD operation positioning and metering projects are expected to achieve phased results, effectively enhancing the digital-intelligent level and operational efficiency of mining operations. 8 What are the main directions of R&D expenditure? North Copper responded: The company's R&D expenditure is focused on six core areas: resource reserve expansion and production increase, efficient mining and beneficiation technologies, smelting technology innovation, high-end copper-based materials, comprehensive utilization of resources, and intelligent mining. North Copper's Q1 2026 report released on April 29 showed: In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 10.044 billion yuan, up 46.89% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 615 million yuan, up 65.74% YoY. Regarding the reason for the revenue increase, North Copper stated in its Q1 report: It was mainly due to increased product sales volume and price increases. In addition, North Copper's 2025 annual report showed: The company achieved revenue of 27.916 billion yuan in 2025, up 15.80% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 791 million yuan, up 29.01% YoY. Major product production in 2025: copper cathode 300,300 mt, sulphuric acid 766,000 mt, gold ingots 6.4 mt, and silver ingots 68.5 mt. North Copper stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is primarily engaged in copper mining, ore beneficiation, smelting, and rolling processing. It currently has captive mines with annual ore processing of 9 million mt and self-produced copper metal content of 43,000 mt, copper smelting capacity of 320,000 mt, gold ingots 10.8 mt, silver ingots 170 mt, and sulphuric acid 1.22 million mt. It also recovers valuable metals including platinum, palladium, selenium, and bismuth through comprehensive utilization. Copper deep-processing products include high performance copper and copper alloy strip and rolled copper foil, of which copper alloy strip capacity is 25,000 mt/year and rolled copper foil capacity is 5,000 mt/year. The company has established an integrated industry chain from mining, ore beneficiation, smelting to rolling processing. The company's "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade-A copper is registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and the "Zhongtiaoshan" brand gold and silver ingots are registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The company's mineral exploration status disclosed in North Copper's 2025 annual report showed: The company completed the detailed exploration project for deep replacement resources at the Tongkuangyu copper mine (below the 80m elevation), with the following main work completed: exploration tunnels 140.6 m, drilling chambers 12/2,823.6 m³, drilling 12 holes (including 3 hydrogeological holes), drilling volume 7,268.62 m, 1:2000 specialized hydrogeological and environmental geological survey 6 km², geophysical logging 2,065.61 m, and pumping tests on 3 holes; 8,091 sample analyses and tests, 46 sets of rock and ore tests, 99 bulk density samples, 20 copper phase analyses, 10 complete chemical analyses, and 12 complete water quality analyses. On February 20, 2025, the Shanxi Mining Association organized and completed the supervision and field acceptance of the detailed exploration project, issuing the supervision report and field acceptance report. In early March, the company completed the compilation of the Detailed Hydrogeological and Environmental Survey Report for the Deep Part of Tongkuangyu Mine. On March 17, the report was reviewed and approved by experts organized by the Shanxi Mining Association. In May, the company completed the compilation of the Detailed Exploration Report for Deep Replacement Resources at Tongkuangyu Copper Mine, Yuanqu County, Shanxi Province (hereinafter referred to as the Report). On May 23, the report was reviewed and approved by experts organized by the Shanxi Mining Association, and review opinions were issued. According to the Report, as of December 31, 2024, within the 80m to -325m elevation range of the Tongkuangyu mining area, the cumulative identified industrial ore body (No. 5) copper ore resources totaled 103.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and metal content of 869,600 mt. Associated gold metal content was 8,930 kg with an average grade of 0.09 g/t; associated molybdenum metal content was 3,727 mt with an average grade of 0.011%. Low-grade copper ore resources totaled 34.625 million mt, with an average grade of 0.25% and metal content of 88,200 mt. The explored resources reached a large scale, achieving significant exploration results and providing solid resource support for the company's industry chain layout. Regarding the company's copper ore resource reserves, North Copper disclosed in its annual report that as of the end of 2025, the Tongkuangyu mine retained copper ore resources of 4.664 million mt above the 80m elevation, with copper metal content of 1.2501 million mt. Meanwhile, below the 80m elevation at the bottom of the company's existing Tongkuangyu mine mining rights, the cumulative identified industrial ore body (No. 5) copper ore resources totaled 3.718 million mt, with an average grade of 0.84% and metal content of 869,600 mt. Regarding the 2026 production and operation plan, North Copper mentioned in its 2025 annual report: Major product production targets: copper cathode 300,000 mt, sulphuric acid 800,000 mt, gold ingots 6 mt, and silver ingots 60 mt, to maximize economic benefits. Regarding the outlook for copper, some institutions hold the following views: Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, noted in a recent report that market participants remain bullish on the copper price outlook, driven by long-term demand from AI infrastructure, power grid modernization, and the global energy transition, coupled with supply constraints. He added that in the long run, the copper market may face a potential supply deficit, which will provide support for copper prices. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that as Freeport once again delayed the production resumptions schedule for its Indonesian project and comprehensively lowered its production guidance for 2026-2027, global major miners' 2026 production expectations have officially entered a decline, and the potential impact of subsequent extreme weather may further amplify supply disruptions. We expect that the solid supply-demand fundamentals demonstrated by the better-than-expected destocking in China, along with easing macro headwinds, will support copper prices to stabilize at $13,000/mt in 2Q26, while the gap between supply-demand expectations could drive copper prices to challenge previous highs. We are optimistic about the allocation opportunity in the copper sector where earnings elasticity and valuation elasticity resonate.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477/mt, dipped to a low of $13,436/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,625/mt, and finally moved sideways at high levels to close at $13,590/mt, up 0.34%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 283,000 lots, an increase of 2,099 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 104,840 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly lower to a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,590 yuan/mt, up 0.28%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,142/mt. Early in the session, the copper price center gradually shifted lower to $14,058/mt, then swung wildly upward to touch a high of $14,175/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $14,083/mt, up 0.02%, with trading volume at 22,600 lots and open interest at 275,000 lots, an increase of 1,876 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at and touched a low of 108,110 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to probe 10,980 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings to finally close at 108,520 yuan/mt, up 0.38%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 201,000 lots, a decrease of 3,326 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

Driven by recovering risk appetite and China's peak demand season, copper prices both in China and abroad bottomed out since late March. However, as SHFE copper returned to the 100,000 level, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts increased, and futures prices shifted to range-bound consolidation. After the Labour Day holiday, copper prices quickly resumed their upward momentum. Today, prices opened higher with a gap and continued to rise, with SHFE copper just one step away from the record high set at the end of January, while LME copper hit a new closing high. What is fueling such strong confidence behind this rally? Deepening Ore-Side Vulnerability Intensifies Supply Disruption Concerns Since the suspension of First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine at the end of 2023, spot TC for copper concentrates in China has been caught in an endless downward spiral. Falling from around $80/dmt at the end of 2023, it largely dropped to single-digit levels and moved sideways in 2024. Entering 2025, it further plunged into negative territory, mainly due to successive production disruptions at world-class copper mines including Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula, Codelco's El Teniente, and Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Entering 2026, global major copper ore supply growth remained limited, and the ore tightness showed no improvement. The latest data showed that spot TC for copper concentrates in China had fallen below -$90/dmt. With long-term contract TC at zero and spot TC declines accelerating, domestic smelters' production profits mainly relied on surging sulphuric acid prices and firm by-product prices of gold, silver, and other metals to compensate. It was reported that current sulphuric acid revenue could already cover smelters' procurement costs for copper concentrates and part of the processing costs, enabling domestic smelters to maintain relatively high operating rates, and the ore tightness had not yet notably transmitted to the smelting side. It is worth noting that sulphuric acid is not only a by-product of pyrometallurgy but also a core production material for SX-EW copper. For every 1 mt of copper produced, 5–6 mt of sulphuric acid is consumed. Sulphuric acid costs account for 40%–50% of total SX-EW copper production costs, and SX-EW copper production accounts for approximately 20% of global mine copper production. Since the beginning of this year, sulphuric acid prices surged sharply due to multiple factors, and ex-China sulphuric acid supply was periodically disrupted, raising concerns that copper supply in some countries could be affected. Focusing on the reasons behind the sulphuric acid price surge: on one hand, since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been broadly restricted and has recently faced a dual blockade by Iran and the US. Sulphur exports from the Middle East have been impacted, with the DRC and Zambia being the most concentrated SX-EW copper producing regions that are highly dependent on sulphur imports from the Middle East. As sulphur supply has been constrained, sulphuric acid prices have naturally risen in tandem, not only raising local SX-EW copper production costs but also potentially triggering further production cuts if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues and sulphur disruption risks escalate. On the other hand, to prioritise domestic spring ploughing phosphate fertiliser production and support new energy industry expansion, China has imposed a phased ban on sulphuric acid exports according to industry sources. Chile has a relatively high dependence on Chinese sulphuric acid, with SX-EW copper accounting for around 20% of its output, and the market is also concerned that Chile's SX-EW copper production may be affected. In addition, against the backdrop of an already fragile copper ore supply, frequent news shocks from outside China recently have undoubtedly intensified market concerns. Last week, market rumours suggested that the full restart of Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine, which declared force majeure in September last year, had been delayed by one year, driving SHFE copper sharply higher in the afternoon of 8 May. However, according to the latest update from Freeport-McMoRan, the company still expects Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine to fully resume production by the end of 2027, reaffirming the plan outlined last month and refuting reports that production resumptions could be delayed to 2028. Furthermore, yesterday Peru declared an emergency energy decree due to a natural gas pipeline explosion. Peru's copper production reached 2.63 million mt in metal content last year, ranking third globally. Copper mining and smelting are relatively sensitive to power stability, and the market is concerned that Peru's energy strain may disrupt local copper supply. Overall, China's copper cathode production remains relatively stable, but some major global miners lowered their full-year production guidance in Q1, the ore tightness persists, sulphuric acid supply — a core raw material for ex-China SX-EW copper — is constrained, and there are multiple supply disruption themes on the copper supply side, which can easily boost copper prices once the macro front stabilises. Global Copper Visible Inventory Divergence: China Destocking Provides Support Last year, driven by the US government's threat to impose additional tariffs on imported copper, global copper continued to flow into the US, causing COMEX copper inventories to accumulate continuously while copper inventories in non-US regions remained low, providing sustained support for copper prices. In February this year, the US Supreme Court struck down most of the tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration in 2025. The Trump administration subsequently turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to push new global tariff policies. On 7 May, the US Court of International Trade issued a ruling stating that the legal basis for imposing a 10% global import tariff was invalid. The tug-of-war between US courts and the Trump administration over tariffs has continued recently, but the market has certain expectations that the US may subsequently impose additional tariffs on imported copper. Under such expectations, the price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper has shown a slight strengthening trend recently, meaning copper in LME warehouses still has the potential to flow to the US. Specifically, COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound since mid-April, rising from around 590,000 mt to the latest 620,000 mt, again hitting a multi-year high. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories pulled back from around 400,000 mt in mid-April, declining to 397,700 mt on 6 May. They have rebounded with fluctuations recently, but overall inventories have not exceeded the over-12-year high set in mid-April. SHFE copper inventories fell for the eighth consecutive week, currently dropping to 181,300 mt, the lowest since the beginning of the year. Data source: Webstock Inc. Overall, on the macro front, there are currently disagreements in US-Iran negotiations, but both sides continue the ceasefire with no recent signs of escalation in conflict. Energy prices pulled back from late April levels, inflation concerns eased somewhat, the US dollar index was in the doldrums, and combined with the AI boom lifting global stock markets, market risk appetite was moderate, providing a fertile ground for copper prices to strengthen. Focusing on copper's own fundamentals, inventories outside China remained elevated, but significant prior destocking of China inventories provided support. The ore tightness was difficult to reverse, and supply-side narratives were abundant, meaning copper prices may still hold up well. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation remains the biggest macro variable, and the policy path following the Fed Chairman's power transition also deserves close attention. (Webstock Composite)