SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, some suppliers will have month-end payment collection needs and will offload cargoes in the market, dragging down the center of spot premiums. Actual transaction discounts for standard-quality copper have already expanded to 70-60 yuan/mt, and some brand offers have reached a discount of 80-70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, SMM understands that after the recent continuous decline in copper prices, some processing enterprises have reported moderate orders, and their dip-buying willingness has strengthened. However, market performance shows that suppliers had to lower their offers several times before transactions were concluded, indicating that downstream players are still mainly pushing for lower prices with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers' offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with the discount likely to widen slightly.

In May, China's copper cathode imports rebounded to 282,300 mt, up 4.38% MoM and up 10.20% YoY. The continuous rebound in imports in May effectively alleviated the tight supply of some spot copper in China. However, from a longer-term perspective, cumulative imports from January to May stood at 1.1443 million mt, still down 15.69% YoY, reflecting a structural adjustment in the overall import flows of long-term contracts and spot cargo this year compared to previous years.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,813/mt. At the open, copper prices showed wild swings, dipping to $13,776.5/mt during the session. Then the price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,835.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $13,835/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 11,500 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, down 7,579 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,280 yuan/mt. In early trading, it hit a high of 105,580 yuan/mt, then the price center dipped to 105,210 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 105,510 yuan/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 122,000 lots, down 2,119 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Extend Pullback, Spot Market Confidence Weakens SMM, June 10. SS futures are trending lower and probing downside. Dragged further by the overall weakness in nonferrous metals futures, SS futures extended their pullback. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the successive declines in SS futures, the support level that the market had originally pinned hopes on at 14,500 yuan/mt was broken, after which market confidence weakened significantly. Traders’ willingness to sell and destock increased notably, low-priced cargoes frequently emerged in the market, buying interest was clearly insufficient, and overall transactions remained mediocre during the day. The most-traded SS futures contract declined and pulled back. At 10:15 am, SS2607 was reported at 14,395 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 575-1,225 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan fell 25 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Stainless steel futures and spot experienced heightened volatility. The futures were first boosted then weighed down by macro news from outside China, and the off-season characteristics fully emerged. The industry holds vague expectations for the future market, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Transactions showed sporadic recoveries lacking sustainability, and selling pressure on traders mounted...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Bullish and Bearish News Alternately Drive SS to Retreat After Rapid Rise; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Stay Stable, Transactions Mediocre SMM, June 8: SS futures showed an advance-then-decline trend. In the morning, due to an earthquake in the Philippines, the market feared that nickel ore supply would be impacted, driving SHFE nickel and SS futures higher together. However, in the afternoon, news emerged from Indonesia that nickel ore quotas were expected to be relaxed, causing SS futures to decline once again. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,665 yuan/mt. On the spot market, although SS futures showed strength in the morning, some stainless steel spot offers edged up, but market acceptance of higher prices was limited, and transactions were mediocre. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 345-945 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility. Futures, swayed by overseas macro news, rose first and then fell, fully revealing the off-season character of the market. The industry's outlook for the near-term market is ambiguous, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, transactions see sporadic recovery but lack sustainability, traders are under rising shipment pressure, and many are boosting sales by offering price concessions. Overall, macro...

【SMM Steel】US President Trump signed a proclamation on June 1 further adjusting Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper imports, effective June 8 through Dec 31, 2027. Key changes include expanding the temporary 15% tariff to cover mobile industrial equipment (bulldozers, forklifts) while lowering rates on agricultural equipment from 25% to 15%. Two new derivative products—steel racks and aluminum lithographic plates—were added at 25% duty. The threshold for qualifying as "entirely" made from US-origin metals was lowered from 95% to 85%, allowing foreign companies to access a 10% rate on capital equipment meeting the requirement.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged down during the day, activating some downstream buying interest. According to SMM, orders at some processing enterprises in east China improved compared to yesterday, with end-users mostly placing orders at around 103,600 yuan/mt. Available supplies in Changzhou became relatively tight, which may provide some support for local spot prices. In terms of market structure, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed slightly, weakening suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. The marginal increase in spot circulation pressure pushed discounts to widen further. Overall, amid the interplay of narrowing price spreads between futures contracts pressuring discounts, limited marginal improvement in demand, and tight regional supplies, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, continuing to stay under pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, during the day, some downstream processing enterprises had restocking demand, and procurement sentiment rebounded slightly, but constrained by high copper prices, the actual increase in procurement volume was limited. In terms of market performance, suppliers continued to lower their offers during the second trading session, and their willingness to sell increased somewhat, but suppressed by weakening consumption demand, actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain a discount next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477.5/mt, dipped to $13,461/mt in early trading, then gradually shifted its center upward to reach $13,676/mt, and finally closed at $13,654.5/mt, up 1.69%, with a trading volume of 17,000 lots and open interest of 273,000 lots, down 3,375 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 103,950 yuan/mt, touching a low of 103,950 yuan/mt right at the open, then shifted its center upward to reach a high of 105,190 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 105,030 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 37,000 lots and open interest of 133,000 lots, down 3,198 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.