Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,450 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then climbed to 88,940 yuan/mt, before its center moved all the way downward and fell to 87,730 yuan/mt near the close. It finally settled at 87,780 yuan/mt, down 0.37%. Open interest stood at 5,599 lots, down 113 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 3,458 lots, down 1,917 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Israel launched large-scale attacks in Tehran, Iran and Beirut, Lebanon, while a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile. Oil prices rose, intensifying market concerns over US inflation and weighing on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, the slight increase in copper prices somewhat suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with buying maintained at just-in-time procurement levels. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,340 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 87,780 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 99,191 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 149 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in a contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market was subdued, while suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the contango price spread between nearby contracts narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered their quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. On the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes previously locked in at fixed prices continued to arrive, while social inventory remained at a high level. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further weigh on spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs that the import window may still open persisted, and expectations for subsequent inflows of ex-China cargoes strengthened, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, amid a pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight widening.

SMM News, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from yesterday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,255 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,140 yuan/mt, up 1,290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After Guangdong inventory rose slightly for only one day yesterday, it declined again today, mainly due to fewer arrivals and increased warehouse withdrawals. As inventory fell, suppliers took the opportunity to hold prices firm and make shipments, but downstream processing enterprises showed only average restocking sentiment today. On the one hand, copper prices posted a relatively large gain; on the other hand, premiums also rose sharply. However, traders' purchase willingness increased from yesterday, and overall trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.43, up 0.11 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.26, up 0.25 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Attention should be paid to inventory changes tomorrow. If destocking continues, premiums are expected to keep rising.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

March 16, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $47/mt (price range $42-52/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $46/mt (price range $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $4/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $25/mt (price range $19-31/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. During the day, a large number of buyers sought EQ and OG copper B/L cargoes arriving in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L cargoes arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L offers for arrivals in late March and early April were quoted at $35/mt, and EQ B/L for arrivals in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.

Today, the average spot price of #1 copper cathode in North China was reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 100,260 yuan/mt, up 1,135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,950 yuan/mt, touched a session high of 89,110 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved lower all the way, hitting a low of 87,330 yuan/mt near the close before finally settling at 88,060 yuan/mt, down 1.16%. Open interest stood at 5,712 lots, down 80 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,375 lots, up 2,090 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to 0.7%, but PCE inflation and job openings data still showed resilience, raising concerns over stagflation in the economy; meanwhile, after the subpoena against Powell was dismissed, the Department of Justice was set to appeal, which may delay the appointment process for Warsh. In the Middle East, the US military had bombed Iran's Kharg Island and was expected to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Neither the US nor Iran intended to cease fire, and the conflict may become prolonged. Iran threatened that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would destroy all US-linked targets. The continued escalation in US-Iran confrontation heightened safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of imported and domestic cargo remained stable, and overall supply steadied. Demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand was gradually released. As of Monday, March 16, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,720 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 88,060 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 99,508 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 212 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining in a contango structure and widening from the previous day.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

SMM News, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 110 yuan/mt from last Friday; a discount of 10 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 50 yuan/mt from last Friday; and a discount of 85 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 85 yuan/mt from last Friday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,955 yuan/mt, down 1,640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 98,850 yuan/mt, down 1,625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory did not continue to decline, but instead increased slightly, mainly due to increased arrivals. As today was the contract rollover day, market quotations were mixed. Mainstream transaction prices for standard-quality copper were at a discount of 120 yuan/mt against the next-month contract, while transaction prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 10 yuan/mt; overall trading was relatively quiet. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.32, down 0.08 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.01, down 0.29 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market quotations were mixed on the contract rollover day, and overall trading was relatively quiet.

SMM News, March 16: Data Brief: As of Monday, March 16, copper inventories in SMM’s major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday, with destocking seen across all regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies were normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover, leading to some inventory drawdown; in Jiangsu, inventory declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption continued to improve, arrivals remained normal, and inventories likewise maintained a destocking trend. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with overall supply stabilizing; demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand is gradually being released. According to the survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 79.19% this week, up 6.27 percentage points WoW. Taking both supply and demand into account, the market is currently showing a pattern of “stabilizing supply and recovering consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.