U.S. copper inventories on COMEX, built up due to tariff concerns, are expected to decline as domestic demand from power, construction, and data centers strengthens.

Australian mining company BHP has outlined a global pipeline of copper projects that could expand its production capacity by 1.8–2 million tonnes over the next decade, in response to rising global demand. BHP also projects that global copper demand will increase from approximately 34 million tonnes per year in 2026 to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened overnight at $13,300/mt and touched a high of the same level, initially fluctuating downward before the center of copper prices shifted straight down, then experiencing wide swings and probing as low as $12,787/mt, ultimately closing at $12,855/mt, down 2.9%, with trading volume reaching 22,100 lots and open interest at 322,000 lots, down 3,871 lots from the previous session, overall reflecting long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened overnight at 102,030 yuan/mt, initially climbing to 102,350 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound, then the center of copper prices pulled back straight to touch a low of 99,400 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 100,030 yuan/mt, down 2.58%, with trading volume reaching 57,700 lots and open interest at 143,000 lots, down 4,515 lots from the previous session, overall reflecting long liquidation.

India’s copper demand rose sharply (~9.3% in FY25) while domestic supply lagged, underscoring strategic vulnerability and the need for diversified sourcing, including imports and recycled copper inputs.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2603 opened at 89,220 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of 88,220 yuan/mt, then fluctuated considerably upward. After the daytime session opened higher with a gap, prices moved sideways before fluctuating upward toward the end of the session, reaching a high of 92,940 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 92,570 yuan/mt, up 2.39%. Open interest fell to 5,846 lots, down 529 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 11,600 lots, indicating bear position reduction. From a macro perspective, the Trump administration plans to launch a $12 billion critical minerals strategic reserve program named the "Gold Vault Plan." Domestically, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed including copper and copper concentrates in the reserve through a commercial discount model. On the supply side, spot copper cathode resources remained generally ample, with mainstream brands continuing to see sufficient supply. Demand side, affected by the rebound in copper prices, market trading activity weakened significantly compared to the previous day. SHFE copper contract 2603 settled at 104,500 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper contract 2603 price of 92,570 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 104,604 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -104 between SHFE copper 2603 and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and widened from the previous day.

Rio Tinto will supply copper to Amazon’s AI data centers under a two-year agreement, highlighting booming AI-related copper demand. This trend underscores the strategic importance of recycled and circular supply solutions to supplement constrained primary sources.

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."

In May, the copper market operated steadily, with SHFE copper prices fluctuating rangebound around 78,000 yuan/mt. The trends of LME copper and SHFE copper were generally similar, but LME copper outperformed SHFE copper, boosted by factors such as declining inventories and a weaker US dollar. The market focused on overseas macroeconomic data. In early May, the UK and the US reached an agreement on the terms of a tariff and trade deal, raising market expectations for an improvement in the global trade environment and leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce issued a joint statement on the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, announcing that significant consensus had been reached in Sino-US trade negotiations. This progress significantly boosted market risk appetite, and copper prices strengthened temporarily as a result. In addition, the US Fed maintained its pause in interest rate cuts at its May policy meeting. Fed Chairman Powell stated that high tariffs could push up inflation and exacerbate pressure on the job market, and that the current monetary policy was in a moderately restrictive range, with a manageable outlook for underlying inflation, making it prudent to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Two days after the Fed announced its latest interest rate decision, several Fed officials reiterated the importance of controlling inflation expectations, believing that uncertainties in trade policy could lead to interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period. In mid-to-late June, the Fed's policy meeting will be held. According to the CME "FedWatch Tool," the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 95.3%, with a 4.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 75.6%, with a 23.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 1.0% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut. The impact of the US tariff policy on the market is gradually stabilizing, but the inflation concerns it has triggered and its potential impact on the economy will gradually emerge. Against this backdrop, the financial attributes of copper will continue to weaken. The shortage of raw materials intensified. In the week ending May 30, the processing fee for imported copper concentrates was reported at -$43.56/mt, further declining from -$42.61/mt at the end of April. Since turning negative on January 24 this year, the processing fee for imported copper concentrates has continued to fluctuate downward, reflecting persistent pressure on ore supply. In terms of copper scrap, the volume of copper scrap imported from the US has continued to decline since the beginning of this year. Although imports of copper scrap from Japan have increased somewhat, this has been insufficient to offset the decline in imports from the US. As copper prices struggle to rise and fail to stimulate the market to release more supply, it is expected that the volume of imported copper scrap will be difficult to rebound in June. Coupled with the resumption of production by some smelters after maintenance, the tight supply of copper scrap is expected to further intensify in June. According to SMM data, the operating rates of domestic copper smelters in China have generally shown an upward trend this year. However, around the delivery periods between months, a significant increase in market deliveries has led to a short-term accumulation of copper inventories at the SHFE. Due to limited inflows of imported supplies, the supply of copper cathode remains tight. Regarding domestic smelters, four smelters are scheduled for maintenance in June, involving the same crude and refined smelting capacity as in May. It is expected to affect production by 22,300 mt, a significant decrease compared to the impact of previous maintenance. Although the scale of planned maintenance at domestic smelters in Q2 gradually narrows in June, the pressure on raw material supply increases instead of decreasing, and the tight supply of copper cathode will persist in June. According to SMM data, the forecasted operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises in May was 84.66%, continuing to rebound from the April level. Demand side, power consumption has maintained a positive trend this year, with overall stable demand from the real estate sector. Notably, since the start of Q2, both newly started and completed construction areas in real estate have rebounded. However, wire and cable enterprises engaged in concentrated procurement of raw materials when copper prices fell in April, and now the inventory of copper rod raw materials has once again accumulated to a high level. Therefore, despite the rebound in demand from the wire and cable sector, the transmission of demand still lags behind. The production and sales of the air conditioning industry exhibit distinct seasonal characteristics. In June, enterprises have entered a downward production cycle, with production and sales activities set to contract further, and their boosting effect on copper demand will also weaken accordingly. The automotive industry is in a phase of seasonal rebound, with NEV production continuing to accelerate. Coupled with positive sales performance this year, the industry's copper demand will steadily rebound. In summary, copper prices will continue to fluctuate at highs in June. (Source: Futures Daily)

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Forum - Nickel, Cobalt, and NEV Session, STJ Budi Santoso, Master of Geology and Chairman of the Indonesian Association of Geologists (IAGI), shared insights on the topic " Exploration Experts Share: Developing Indonesia's Critical Mineral Reserve Potential and Enhancing Downstream Industry Capabilities as Top Priorities ." The Role and Challenges of Exploration Drivers of Exploration: Current and Future State of the Mining Industry Since Q4 2020, most commodity prices have risen, with some reaching multi-year highs. Global metal demand doubles every 20 to 30 years, and media projections suggest cumulative copper demand from 2017 to 2042 could reach 689Mt. Exploration spending is expected to increase by 65% by 2027. Greater Exploration Challenges Current exploration data indicates that the discovery depth for base metals is twice that of gold, while the unit discovery cost for gold mines has doubled over the past decade. For base metals, assuming an exploration budget of $5 million, the probability of a moderate discovery in any given year is less than one in thirty. Thus, exploration is a high-risk/high-reward activity. Exploration Challenge: Discovery-to-Production Ratio Rough estimates show that only 11 of the 229 oil fields discovered since 1990 are currently in production. Exploration Challenge: Time from Discovery to Production Readiness On average, mines take 16.3 years from discovery to production. Despite shorter construction times, the lengthy processes of exploration, permitting, and financing prolong the timeline for mine commissioning. Factors affecting the lead time of geological resource exploration include: Exploration, permitting, and studies; Financing and permitting for open-pit/underground development; Commodity prices. Exploration Challenge: Timing of Exploration and Discovery in Indonesia Most, if not all, existing mineral discoveries are results of exploration under the Work Contract (CoW) and Mining License (KP) systems. Whether the current licensing regime and its subsequent mechanisms can match or surpass these outcomes remains debatable. So far, this seems unlikely. Discovery-to-Production Cycle: Roles of Government and Industry Exploration Overview and Indonesia’s Mineral Resource Inventory Compilation of Indonesian Metal Occurrences, Mineralized Zones, and Mines Consensus on Exploration: Since the 1980s, exploration has primarily been conducted by foreign exploration and mining companies—preparation time; Not all projects have or will have economic viability—high risk, low success rate; Exploration success is measured and reflected through discoveries—a frequently misunderstood aspect; A comprehensive and sustained approach is needed—based on geological surveys, technology, and trust-building; Exploration/mining is a high-risk, long-term business—requiring commitment; Assurance is needed: long-term regulatory certainty—exploration as a critical aspect of sustainable mining. Resources and Reserves of Major Commodities in Indonesia, 2019-2023 Status of Resources and Reserves of Metals in Indonesia Is the current situation sustainable, or is there potential for growth? Conduct systematic and comprehensive exploration, and keep discovering! Nickel Reserves and Consumption in Indonesia: A Case Study of Nickel in 2020 Conclusion Exploration is a high-risk, long-term business that requires a systematic and comprehensive approach, as well as long-term commitment and perseverance. It is a crucial and urgent pillar for the development of a sustainable downstream industry in mining. Without exploration, there will be no resource reserves, and without reserves, sustainable downstream development cannot be achieved. Indonesia is rich in critical and strategic mineral resources. However, as the resources of existing mines gradually deplete, the acceleration of exploration efforts has become increasingly urgent and important. The government authorizes geological agencies to participate in inventory work during the preliminary investigation phase, providing regional 3G data (geological, geophysical, and geochemical) as well as high-quality regional and local prospect maps, due to the economic value of geological information. To achieve reliable inventory, a comprehensive system for reporting exploration results, resources, and reserves must be established, including the following elements: 1. Competent Persons (CPI, CP) with technical expertise and bound by professional ethics. 2. Reputable reporting guidelines/standards, such as the KCMI guidelines and SNI. 3. A spirit of good mining practices, encompassing requirements for environmental protection, Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).