According to a report by Mining.com, Ivanhoe Mines announced that its Kakula West copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has resumed production after a temporary suspension lasting one month. This underground mine is part of the company's Kamoa-Kakula copper joint venture. On May 18, the mine was forced to suspend production due to severe water inflow caused by seismic activity in the region. The Kamoa-Kakula joint venture is Africa's largest copper mine, with Ivanhoe holding a 39.6% stake. Analysts believe that once the necessary pumping and repair work is completed, the mine should be able to resume production. Mining activities in the eastern section are also expected to commence immediately, with a focus on advancing from existing stopes to new areas. In a statement, Robert Friedland, the company's Executive Chairman, said, "We are grateful and thankful to our team for their rapid response in stabilizing the water table at Kakula and resuming mining on the west side." "The team quickly secured the critical equipment needed to remove water from the entire mine, while also preparing to mine a high-grade area in the east." With the resumption of production at the Kakula copper mine, Ivanhoe has set new production targets for the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture in 2025: 370,000 to 420,000 mt of copper concentrates. Based on the midpoint, this projection represents a 28% decrease from the previous production target set in January (520,000 to 580,000 mt). Ivanhoe stated that the downward revision in production expectations takes into account the potential impact of recent seismic activity and related disruptions at the Kakula mine. Several risk factors, such as further seismic activity and infrastructure damage, were also highlighted as considerations. Additionally, the company's management has withdrawn the production target of approximately 600,000 mt for 2026, pending further evaluation. Friedland emphasized, "Although it is premature to establish production plans for 2026 and 2027, the future of the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture remains bright." As previously disclosed, the Phase 1 and Phase 2 beneficiation plants at Kakula are still operating at half of their capacity, processing surface ore inventory. The beneficiation plants are expected to restore their capacity for the remainder of the year as mining volumes increase in the western section of the mine, according to Ivanhoe. Meanwhile, the Kamoa underground mine, as well as the adjacent Phase 3 beneficiation plant, are operating well. With the necessary copper concentrate supply in place, the on-site smelter is expected to commence operations in September, with the first products to be produced in October 2025.

On June 12th, Bloomberg reported that Teck Resources and Sumitomo Metal Mining are locked in a dispute over treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in a major copper concentrate supply agreement. The disagreement, centered on shipments from Teck’s Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley mines, has prompted the appointment of lawyers to select an industry expert as an independent referee. The clash highlights cracks in the traditional benchmark pricing system, after Antofagasta’s 2025 deal with Chinese smelters set TC/RCs at $21.25/2.125 cents, far below historical norms. Some Japanese buyers, including Sumitomo, have resisted adopting this benchmark amid sharply falling spot TC/RCs, which have recently turned negative. The situation underscores growing tension between well-funded Chinese smelters and financially pressured Western peers, with some smelters in the Philippines and Namibia already suspending operations.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On June 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$44.75/dmt, a decrease of $1.46/dmt from the previous -$43.29/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. Trading activity in the copper concentrate spot market was sluggish during the week. A trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore from Peru to a smelter at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. A smelter had previously purchased 20,000 mt of Caserones and Centinela copper concentrates from a large trader under an index-linked settlement model, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. During the week, a trader offered 10,000 mt of bundled clean ore to a smelter at a high -$40s/dmt price, with a loading period in July. The gold payable was fully priced after a deduction of 0.3 for gold content below 1 gram. According to market rumors, a large trader offered copper concentrates to two leading domestic smelters, with a total volume of 300,000 mt of ore (long-term contract + spot cargo) at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in H2. According to SMM, most Chinese smelters participating in long-term contract negotiations have not yet received a second-round long-term contract offer from Antofagasta. However, one smelter has already responded with a positive single-digit high offer. Japanese smelters have also not initiated a second-round long-term contract offer. They are adhering to the pricing stance since CESCO at the end of last year, insisting on a long-term contract price of $20/30, otherwise, their production and operation will face losses. Ivanhoe Mines announced its latest 2025 production guidance for copper from the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is 370,000-420,000 mt in metal content, a decrease of 28% from the 520,000-580,000 mt in metal content guidance released at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the earthquake that previously hit the Kakula copper mine. Sinomine Resource Group announced that due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. This smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead, with an annual processing capacity of 240,000 mt of copper concentrates. The SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 812,800 mt on June 13, an increase of 65,500 mt from the previous period. The main increase came from Qingdao Port, where copper concentrate inventory increased by 40,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check SMM metal industry chain database

[SMM Analysis:When it rains, it pours: Global copper concentrate supply-demand balance results after KK Mine earthquake ] At the end of May, Chinese smelters started mid-year negotiations with Antofagasta. In the first round of negotiations this year, mining companies have offered smelters a quotation with -$15 , which is far lower than the $0 leaked by the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group stated that this negotiation is extremely difficult, and it is arduous to strive for a favorable figure.

In Q1, supported by the tight global supply of copper concentrates, the center of copper prices shifted significantly higher YoY, with the most-traded contract climbing to a historical high of RMB 83,320/mt.

View SMM Copper Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis Click to View SMM Spot Copper Historical Price Trends SMM May 30 News: China's copper cathode production in May increased by 12,600 mt MoM, up 1.12%, and rose 12.86% YoY. Cumulative production from January-May increased by 544,800 mt YoY, up 11.09%. May's copper cathode production exceeded expectations by 8,400 mt, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) Smelters that underwent maintenance in April resumed production as scheduled, with output exceeding expectations; 2) Production at newly commissioned smelters continued to rise; 3) Imports of copper anode plates continued to increase in May; 4) Inventories of copper concentrates at major domestic ports slightly declined from 835,600 mt at April-end to 795,900 mt at May-end, though still significantly higher than the 575,200 mt recorded in mid-March, indicating no tightness in copper concentrate supply for smelters. 5) Sulphuric acid prices rebounded in May due to reduced supply and increased export demand, a trend expected to persist until late June. Higher sulphuric acid prices effectively offset smelting losses. However, it is noteworthy that production at smelters not using copper concentrates (relying on copper scrap or anode plates) declined due to tight copper scrap supply, as reflected in their lower operating rate (68.9% in May, down 3 percentage points). Additionally, mid-year long-term contract negotiations between mines and smelters have commenced, with the first round offering TC-$15/mt, implying most smelters—whether under long-term contracts or spot orders—will face losses, increasing pressure for future production cuts. In summary, the sample operating rate for China's copper cathode industry in May was 88.82%, up 1.02 percentage points MoM. Large smelters recorded an operating rate of 92.73% (up 1.58 percentage points MoM), medium-sized smelters at 84.68% (up 1.92 percentage points MoM), and small smelters at 62.89% (down 8.5 percentage points MoM). Smelters using copper concentrates operated at 93.3% (up 1.8 percentage points MoM), while those not using copper concentrates (relying on copper scrap or anode plates) operated at 68.9% (down 3 percentage points MoM). Entering June, only one smelter in our survey has maintenance plans. However, the number of enterprises reporting lower capacity utilisation rates has increased significantly, with nearly 40% of surveyed firms implementing production cuts to varying degrees—double the figure in May. Thus, total production in June is expected to decline MoM. Based on production schedules, SMM forecasts China's June copper cathode output to drop by 7,200 mt MoM (down 0.63%), while rising by 126,100 mt YoY (up 12.55%). The cumulative production from January to June is expected to increase by 670,900 mt YoY, with a growth rate of 11.34%. In June, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry was 88.26%, down 0.56 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.27%, down 1.46 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 84.46%, down 0.22 percentage points MoM; and the operating rate of small smelters was 70.65%, up 7.76 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 92.5%, down 0.8 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (copper scrap or copper anode) was 69.6%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. Finally, we expect production to continue to decline in July, with tight raw material supply being the main reason.

Previously, the US implemented reciprocal tariffs, sparking market concerns that a potential disruption in trade chains could drag down economic growth and push up inflation. Risk assets were broadly sold off, and copper prices were not spared from the downturn. Subsequently, trade conflicts began to ease, and copper prices embarked on a path of recovery. However, it can be observed that SHFE copper faced significant resistance at the gap left by the sharp drop in early April, while support below was also strong, with futures prices fluctuating rangebound around the 78,000 yuan level. Why has SHFE copper been caught in a dilemma recently? Is there a possibility for futures prices to break out of the rangebound situation in the future? Uncertainty remains over the tariff grace period Recently, negotiations between the US and various countries have been underway. In particular, after the 90-day reciprocal tariffs between China and the US were reduced to 10%, the market briefly traded on the logic of easing tariff tensions. However, the progress of some negotiations has been slow. Recently, Trump's attitude shifted, and he again proposed imposing tariffs on the EU. The market is also concerned about the possibility of renewed trade frictions after the tariff grace period. The positive impact of the short-term tariff easing has largely been priced in, making it difficult to provide further support for market sentiment. In addition, to divert attention from domestic contradictions such as the massive scale of debt, it is difficult for the US to restore tariffs on other countries to pre-2024 levels, and concerns about the economic growth outlook cannot be easily allayed. Judging from the recently released US economic data, the impact of tariff disruptions has so far been limited. US inflation in April was lower than expected, and the monthly rate of retail sales rose by 0.1%, exceeding expectations. The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May also exceeded expectations. However, the issue of the US's high debt burden still persists, with a significant amount of US debt maturing in June. Recently, Trump's tax cut bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, and the market continues to worry about the US's mounting debt. The impact of tariff increases on the economy also remains to be tracked. Mining-side processing fees remain at extremely low levels, and the supply side appears somewhat fragile Since last year, tight ore supply has been a major factor plaguing the copper market. However, except for the news in March this year that Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group would carry out production cuts and maintenance, the production of domestic smelters has largely not been constrained by tight ore supply and extremely low processing fees. Therefore, against the backdrop of steady to increasing production in the smelting sector, the issue of tight ore supply alone is unlikely to provide a substantial boost to copper prices. However, it cannot be overlooked that the current spot processing fees for domestic copper concentrates have fallen below -$40/dmt, and the annual and quarterly processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners are increasingly lower. Recently, the market has focused its attention on the mid-year negotiations between global copper mining giant Antofagasta and Chinese and Japanese smelters. Previously, sources revealed that due to tight copper concentrate supply, smelters may request a "zero-dollar" processing fee, or even a negative value, for the second half of 2025. If the rumors are true, the output of by-products such as sulphuric acid may not be sufficient to offset the losses, undoubtedly exacerbating the production pressure on domestic small and medium-sized smelters. Meanwhile, there have been more disruptions in overseas mining operations. Last Tuesday, Ivanhoe Mines announced that mining operations at its Kakula underground mine within the Kamoa-Kakula copper mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had been temporarily suspended, primarily due to the impact of an earthquake. Its Phase I and II beneficiation plants continue to operate at low capacity using surface ore stockpiles, while operations at the Kamoa mine and Phase III beneficiation plant remain unaffected. Kamoa-Kakula is a world-class, large-scale, ultra-high-grade copper mine. The Phase I mine, with a capacity of 6 million mt/year, was constructed at Kakula, while Phase II utilizes existing facilities at the Kansoko mine to increase capacity to 12 million mt/year. In the evening of May 23, Zijin Mining, another major investor in the mine, also issued an announcement, stating that the earthquake is expected to adversely affect the achievement of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's annual planned production, with the specific extent of the impact requiring further assessment based on the investigation results. Overall, due to the faster expansion of global smelters, the copper ore supply tightness is relatively severe and is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Against the backdrop of strong bargaining power of miners, the copper concentrate TCs negotiated by smelters are becoming increasingly lower, with the possibility of approaching zero. In the early stage, smelters adjusted their operations through measures such as long-term contracts, supplementing with other raw materials, and offsetting profits with by-products such as sulphuric acid, maintaining overall stable production. Recently, during the concentrated maintenance period of the year, there are still few maintenance plans among domestic smelters, and there has been no significant production cut due to ore shortages. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the long-term contract levels of copper concentrate TCs negotiated between overseas miners and domestic smelters. Before the ore supply tightness can be transmitted to the smelting end, it will still be difficult to provide more upward momentum for copper prices. If smelters indeed undertake substantial production cuts, copper prices may experience a sharp increase. Social inventory of domestic copper cathode accumulates slightly, with expectations of weakening demand Recently, the performance of global copper visible inventories has been divergent. COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound, rising from around 92,000 mt in early March to approximately 175,600 mt currently, reflecting the process of global copper flowing into the US amid expectations of a possible tariff hike on imported copper by the US. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories have been continuously pulling back, declining from around 260,000 mt in early March to approximately 164,700 mt currently, with a significant destocking amplitude. The current price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper remains at a relatively high level. Before the implementation of copper-related tariffs by the US, global copper will continue to flow into the US due to the existence of profits. Domestically, the traditional peak season of "Golden March, Silver April" has passed. Coupled with the rebound of copper prices from low levels, the downstream demand in the domestic copper market has weakened compared to the previous period, and the destocking of social inventories of copper cathode in China has halted. However, overall, the extent of inventory buildup has been very limited so far, and the inflow of domestic inventories has also been influenced by the outflow of exchange warrants and the inflow of inventories from bonded areas. From the downstream industry data released this month, the high-growth momentum of power grid investment continues, and the State Grid Corporation of China's annual record-high target is relatively certain. This aspect of demand will continue to support copper prices. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production continued to increase YoY, and industry prosperity persisted. However, in April, the production of refrigerators and air conditioners both pulled back, indicating a potential weakening in demand in this sector. Overall, during the moratorium period, global trade frictions have eased compared to the previous period, but uncertainties in negotiations still persist. Moreover, against the backdrop of deglobalization, market concerns about the economic outlook are difficult to completely dispel, and the suppression at the previous gap still exists. On the supply and demand side, concerns about tight ore supplies have lingered for a long time, and recent disruptions at the ore end have increased again, continuously consolidating the downward support for copper prices. Additionally, the siphon effect of the US has also made it difficult for copper inventories in other regions to accumulate significantly. However, the output of copper cathode remains stable, and there are expectations of a marginal weakening in demand. Therefore, a breakout from the current stalemate in SHFE copper prices may require more definitive changes to occur.

According to foreign media reports, global copper mining giant Antofagasta has initiated mid-year negotiations with smelters in China and Japan. Sources revealed that due to tight copper concentrate supply, smelters may request a "US$0" treatment charge (TC/RCs) for the second half of 2025. This unprecedented offer represents a 100% plunge from the 2024 benchmark price of US$80 per metric ton (mt) and could potentially turn negative. The sharp decline in copper concentrate TCs stems from the shutdown of First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine and a surge in China's smelting capacity, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. On May 16, the spot copper concentrate TC fell to a historic low of negative US$59.1/mt. Analysts believe that if the zero-TC scenario materializes, small and medium-sized smelters will face a survival crisis, while miners' bargaining power will further strengthen.

[SMM Analysis:The mid-year negotiations are approaching, and the imbalanced supply-demand structure of copper concentrate will have far-reaching impacts ] Antofagasta’s mid-year negotiations with smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea are imminent, during which Antofagasta will launch negotiations with smelters. From the current situation, the outlook for buyers is not optimistic.

Since April, the most-traded SHFE copper contract prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound, with copper prices gradually recovering after hitting a low of 71,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, arbitrage trading in the LME copper and COMEX copper markets has weakened, while domestic copper smelters have increased maintenance activities, leading to a rapid drawdown in social copper inventory and providing support for copper prices. Supply side remains tight. In December 2024, China's copper concentrate production reached 151,800 mt, up 6.89% YoY and 9.51% MoM. In March 2025, China imported 2.3939 million mt of copper concentrates and ore, up 9.69% MoM and 2.73% YoY. This year, China's copper concentrate production has been at a relatively low level, while imports have remained relatively stable, resulting in an overall decline in copper concentrate supply. In late April, Peru's Antamina mine halted operations entirely due to a sudden accident. The mine produced 426,900 mt of copper ore in 2024, accounting for 1.86% of global copper ore production, which will have a certain impact on global copper ore supply. In terms of inventory, as of April 18, the copper concentrate inventory at major domestic ports stood at 706,900 mt, at a moderate level, while the processing fee for imported ore continued to decline, falling to -$34.71/mt, a record low. According to data from relevant institutions, from 2021 to 2025, the global copper concentrate capacity additions have accelerated, but in the next three years, the growth rate of global copper concentrate capacity additions will decline rapidly, potentially exacerbating the global copper concentrate supply tightness in the later period. As of February this year, China's copper scrap production reached 115,800 mt in metal content, up 4.99% MoM and 60.83% YoY. According to March data, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap reached 189,700 mt, down 3,631 mt MoM and 13.07% YoY. Among them, imports from the US were 22,500 mt, down 8,900 mt MoM. With the intensifying impact of the "trade war," China's copper scrap imports may decline in the later period, leading to a tight supply-demand structure for copper scrap. In February, China's blister copper production was 911,500 mt, down 2.96% MoM and up 10.74% YoY. Among them, mine-produced blister copper decreased by 26,500 mt from January to 738,700 mt, while scrap-produced blister copper decreased by 1,300 mt to 172,800 mt. In March, China imported 50,200 mt of copper anode, down 11.05% MoM and 47.8% YoY. In March, China's copper cathode production was 1.1221 million mt, up 6.04% MoM and 12.27% YoY. Entering April, due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, some smelters began to reduce the feedstock of copper concentrates, but by increasing the feedstock of copper scrap and anode plates, they maintained stable copper cathode production.Additionally, new smelters have commenced operations in east China, while the capacity utilization rate of smelters in south-west China has increased, leading to a slight decline in the total production of copper cathode. Due to significant losses in the industry, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains relatively low, and import losses have also suppressed the supply of imported copper. Overall, despite an increase in copper cathode production, the overall supply pressure remains relatively small. In terms of subsequent capacity increments, it is projected that China will add 1.17 million mt of new copper refining capacity in 2025, with overseas capacity additions reaching approximately 870,000 mt. Among these, the Kamoa mining area, jointly held by Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining, will contribute the largest overseas capacity increment. Operating rates in downstream sectors rebound In 2025, China's fiscal policy will become more proactive. Specifically, the scale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, while the scale of new special local government bonds is anticipated to rise from 3.9 trillion yuan to 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. With the continuous strengthening of fiscal policy, it is expected that infrastructure investment in 2025 will continue to fluctuate at highs in recent years, with investment growth rates projected to stabilize at 5% to 10%. Infrastructure investment will remain one of the main driving forces for industrial product demand in 2025. In December 2024, China's copper semis production reached 2.27 million mt, up 6.2% MoM and 16.53% YoY. The operating rate of enterprises in the copper semis industry stood at 69.02%. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the operating rate of the copper semis industry was low in January and February but gradually rebounded to 67% in March. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the copper industry continued to rebound. Entering April, copper prices fell sharply, stimulating an increase in downstream orders. It is expected that the operating rate of enterprises in the copper semis industry will continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on China's copper consumption. Additionally, the YoY data for overall power grid and NEV production both showed slight increases, providing further bullish support for copper cathode demand. Bulls take the initiative in forward contracts In April, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventories accelerated, approaching 130,000 short tons as of April 23. Domestically, as of April 24, social copper inventories stood at 181,700 mt, achieving eight consecutive weeks of weekly destocking, down 195,300 mt from the year's high and 223,000 mt lower than the 404,700 mt recorded in the same period last year. In April, the decline in LME copper inventories slowed down, hovering around 210,000 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants dropping from a high of 50% to 37%. As of April 18, both non-commercial long and short positions in COMEX Grade 1 copper decreased from the previous week, with net long positions falling by 4,764 lots to 19,477 lots. Meanwhile, both long and short positions in LME copper investment funds increased, with net long positions rising by 1,479 lots to 29,842 lots.The domestic futures market exhibits a contango structure, with bulls taking the initiative in the deferred contracts, indicating that major funds are optimistic about future prices. From the perspective of the supply-demand balance table, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, downstream demand is rebounding while upstream supply is pulling back. The supply-demand structure is gradually improving, and the probability of a supply-demand gap emerging in Q2 is rising. Against this backdrop, market optimism is heating up, providing certain bullish support for prices. From a macro perspective, based on the economic data released by the US in March, indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, CPI, and PPI have shown robust performance. The impact of US tariff policies is expected to be reflected in April's data, and subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries. On the supply side, the tight supply situation of copper raw materials has intensified, with processing fees for imported copper concentrates continuing to decline, and tariff policies affecting the imports of copper scrap. Currently, the extent of production cuts in copper smelting is relatively small, with April mainly focusing on maintenance. By-products such as sulphuric acid and gold can offset some of the losses incurred by smelters. On the consumption side, as downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises have significantly increased. The shortage of secondary copper raw materials has also stimulated market consumption of copper cathode. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually becoming apparent, making it difficult to be optimistic about the subsequent consumption of copper. Overall, the fundamental support for copper is moderate, but US tariff policies still plague the market, which will limit the subsequent rebound height of copper prices. It is expected that SHFE copper prices in May may struggle to break new highs, and caution should be exercised against the risk of prices jumping initially and then pulling back. (Author's affiliation: Huawen Futures)