[SMM Analysis:April China's Copper Concentrate Imports: Unexpected Yet Reasonable ] In April 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates reached a record 2.9244 million tons, up 22.16% month-on-month, 24.55% year-on-year, and 7.46% year-on-year cumulatively. It is not difficult to observe that from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing rough smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrate imports driven by the sharp increase in demand was reasonable, but such a high import volume was still unexpected. Let's specifically analyze the main sources of this high-level copper concentrate imports.

》View SMM Metal Prices, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Price Trends On March 21, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -22.88 $/dmt, a decrease of 6.96 $/dmt from the previous week's -15.92 $/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. During the week, the spot market saw active trading, mainly through mine tenders. A 20,000 mt Frontier tender result was announced, with two of the largest traders winning the bid at a mid-price of -60 $/dmt, for 5,000-10,000 mt bulk carriers; one trader sold 1,000 mt of Peruvian mixed ore, low in copper but high in lead and zinc, to a smelter at a high price of -10 $/dmt, with a loading period in April and QP at M+4; the Bisha 10,000 mt tender result was announced, with loading periods in April and May, at a high price of -40 $/dmt; the Lao mine tender results were announced, with one trader winning 20,000 mt for May and June at a low TC of -50 $/dmt, another trader winning 10,000 mt at a mid-TC of -60 $/dmt, with loading periods in November and December, and an additional 100,000 mt for 2026; KGHM's Sierra Gorda tendered 10,000 mt for June loading, QP at M+2, 10,000 mt for Q3 loading, QP at M+4, and 40,000 mt for 2026 loading, QP at M+4, with the tender closing on March 20; one trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore to a major smelter at -20 $/dmt, with loading periods in April and June, QP at M+5; Freeport's Mission mine 20,000 mt tender result to a trader was announced at a mid-price of -40 $/dmt, with Q2 loading, QP at M+4; SPCC's Cuajone 10,000 mt tender result was announced at a mid-price of -50 $/dmt, with loading periods in April and May, QP at M+4. A large miner's tender results were announced, with 10,000 mt of standard clean ore to a trader at a low to mid-price of -50 $/dmt, and multiple sales of standard clean ore to smelters at a mid-price of -20 $/dmt, all with QP at M+3. According to SMM, a mining accident occurred at East Zhezkazgan mine in Kazakhstan's Ulytau region, owned by Kazakhmys, where a 1994-born miner fell into the bottom of shaft 57 while unloading and died on the spot. The company stated that production at East Zhezkazgan would only resume after comprehensive safety measures were strengthened and all safety hazards were eliminated. East Zhezkazgan produces around 600 mt (metal content) of copper per day. SMM also learned that Indian smelter Adani is currently in the furnace baking stage and is expected to start feeding material in the last week of March. The Indonesian government announced on Monday that it had issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia, which stated that it had obtained a 1.27 million mt export license from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, allowing ships carrying Freeport's copper concentrates to commence shipping. On March 13, the Panamanian president approved the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrate. Some market sources indicated that 120,000 mt of copper concentrate would be shipped to the Onsan smelter in South Korea and three Japanese smelters, without entering the Chinese market. On March 21, the SMM nine-port copper concentrate inventory was 643,500 mt, an increase of 68,300 mt from the previous week, with the main increase coming from the Port of Jinzhou, where the weekly copper concentrate inventory increased by 57,000 mt. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

[SMM Analysis: Indonesia and Panama Relax Copper Concentrate Export Policies — Can Distant Water Quench Immediate Thirst?] According to SMM, the Indonesian government announced on Monday that it had issued a six-month copper concentrate export permit to Freeport Indonesia. Today, Freeport Indonesia stated that it has obtained an export permit for 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, allowing shipments of Freeport copper concentrates from Papua Port to commence. Meanwhile, on March 13, the President of Panama announced the approval of the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrates.

[SMM Commentary: After the Turning Point in Copper Inventories, Can Copper Prices Continue to Rise Next Week?] Recently, a series of "disappointing" data released by the US and the repeated changes in US tariff policies have reignited market concerns over a slowdown in US economic growth. The US dollar index has continued to weaken, currently dropping to around 103.6. The rising expectations of US tariffs on copper once spurred a sharp increase in COMEX copper, which in turn drove up LME copper and SHFE copper. Domestically, a warmer macro outlook combined with a reduction in domestic copper inventories supported an overall increase in copper prices this week. As of 17:19 on March 7, LME copper fell by 0.59% to $9,676.5/mt, with a weekly gain of 3.4% so far. SHFE copper rose by 0.27% to 78,320 yuan/mt, with a weekly increase of 1.7%.

》View SMM Metal Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Price Trends of SMM Metal Spot On March 7, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$15.83/mt, down $1.43/mt from the previous period's -$14.4/mt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. During the week, the spot market showed a temporary stabilization after a decline. A trader sold 10,000 mt of Cerro Verde copper concentrates at a mid-to-high price of -$10/mt, with shipment scheduled for April and QP set at M+5, with normal gold and silver terms. Another trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore and 10,000 mt of mixed ore at a mid-price of -$10/mt, with shipment scheduled for March/April and QP set at M+5. A smelter purchased 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at a mid-price of -$10/mt, with QP set at M+4 and shipment scheduled for April. As the LME futures market structure shifted from Contango to Backwardation, traders adjusted the QP for copper concentrates from M+5/M+6 to M+4 to mitigate business risks. During the week, the results of mine tenders were announced. Antofagasta's Centinela mine tendered 10,000 mt, with traders' winning bid price close to -$40/mt, shipment scheduled for April/May, gold Payable at 6-7g at 96%, and quality inspection fees borne by the buyer. On March 4, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Regulation No. 6 of 2025, amending provisions in Regulation No. 6 of 2024 regarding the completion of domestic metal mineral refining facilities. The new regulation aims to address temporary export needs under force majeure circumstances when special mining license holders are unable to operate refining facilities. According to SMM, the Indonesian government has lifted the export ban on Freeport copper concentrates, and the export license has been approved but not yet signed. Reportedly, some copper concentrate inventories are awaiting shipment. As of March 7, SMM's nine-port copper concentrate inventory stood at 610,600 mt, down 50,200 mt from the previous period, with the main reduction coming from Jinzhou Port. This week, Jinzhou Port's copper concentrate inventory decreased by 31,000 mt WoW. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

According to foreign media reports, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the Indonesian government has agreed to allow PT FI to resume copper concentrate export permits before its smelter in Manyar is fully repaired, while the Indonesian government will impose additional export taxes on PT FI.

》View SMM Metal Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Price Trends of SMM Metal Spot On February 21, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$10.8/mt, down $2.13/mt from the previous reading of -$8.67/mt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. During the week, the center of spot copper concentrate TC transactions deteriorated rapidly. According to SMM, the center of spot copper concentrate transactions last week remained around the mid-range of negative single digits. A trader sold 10,000 mt of Package copper concentrates to a smelter at a mid-to-high negative price, with shipment scheduled for late Q1 to early Q2, normal precious metal pricing terms, and QP set at M+5. By this week, several traders began offering spot positions for late Q1 at the beginning of the week. Early in the week, a smelter purchased 30,000 mt of clean ore from a trader at a mid-range negative single-digit processing fee, with QP set at M+5. However, after the mining company's tender results were announced on Tuesday, everything came to an abrupt halt, with many pre-offers being withdrawn and plans to re-offer next week. The tender results showed smelters winning bids at a mid-to-low negative $10 level, while traders won bids at a mid-to-low negative $30 level. These results shocked the market, far exceeding expectations. Recently, foreign media reported that Freeport-McMoRan requested the Indonesian government to allow it to export 1.3 million mt of copper concentrates until year-end. Indonesia has permitted Freeport-McMoRan to export copper concentrates but imposed higher export taxes as a penalty. According to SMM, feedback from a trader indicates that as of today, Indonesia has not yet approved copper concentrate export permits, and traders are still waiting for approval. Additionally, feedback from a mining company suggests that export permits for Indonesian copper concentrates have not yet been approved, but there is a high probability of progress in the near future. SMM believes that since last year, Indonesia has accumulated a significant inventory of copper concentrates that cannot be exported, leading to high business and financial costs for miners and traders. Meanwhile, domestic demand-side smelter construction projects have faced delays and production accidents, preventing demand from being released. Under dual pressures, the Indonesian government may temporarily lift the raw material export ban or wait until all three smelters are operational before reimposing the ban on copper concentrate exports. As of February 21, SMM's nine-port copper concentrate inventory stood at 783,200 mt, down 58,600 mt from the previous period, with the main reduction coming from Nanjing Port. This week, copper concentrate inventory at Nanjing Port decreased by 40,000 mt WoW. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

[SMM Analysis: Can Indonesian Copper Concentrates Be Exported?] Since 2010, Indonesia has repeatedly stirred up discussions on resource export bans to develop its domestic processing industry, aiming to boost employment rates and economic growth. Starting two years ago, the topic of banning Indonesian copper concentrate exports has been widely debated, and the country has expanded one smelter and constructed two new smelters to ensure the self-sufficiency of its mineral resources.

[SMM Analysis: Can Indonesian Copper Concentrates Be Exported?] Since 2010, Indonesia has repeatedly stirred up discussions on resource export bans to develop its domestic processing industry, aiming to boost employment rates and economic growth. Starting two years ago, the topic of banning Indonesian copper concentrates exports has been highly debated. Additionally, the country has expanded one smelter and constructed two new smelters to ensure domestic consumption of its mineral resources.

[SMM Analysis: 2025 Copper Production Guidance Released by Some Miners, Copper Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance Gap Expected to Widen Further] 2024 has passed, and major miners have successively released their Q4 2024 copper ore production reports and 2025 copper production guidance. However, it is worth noting that several miners have lowered their 2025 copper production targets, indicating that the supply of copper concentrates in 2025 will be even more constrained, with a larger global supply-demand balance gap for copper concentrates.