[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrates Imports in April: Unexpected Yet Reasonable] In April 2025, China's copper concentrates imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% on a cumulative YoY basis. It is not difficult to observe that from year-end 2024 to H1 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrates imports, driven by a significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, was reasonable. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates came as a surprise. We attribute the high volume of copper concentrates imports to the following factors.

[SMM Analysis: Indonesia and Panama Relax Copper Concentrate Export Policies — Can Distant Water Quench Immediate Thirst?] According to SMM, the Indonesian government announced on Monday that it had issued a six-month copper concentrate export permit to Freeport Indonesia. Today, Freeport Indonesia stated that it has obtained an export permit for 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, allowing shipments of Freeport copper concentrates from Papua Port to commence. Meanwhile, on March 13, the President of Panama announced the approval of the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrates.

[Indonesia to Issue 6-Month Copper Concentrates Export Permit to Freeport Indonesia with Quota of 1.27 Million mt] According to mining.com citing Reuters, Indonesia's energy minister stated on Monday that the country will issue a six-month copper concentrates export permit to Freeport Indonesia, allowing the company to export copper concentrates during smelter maintenance. This will also ensure that the Indonesian government continues to receive royalties. Freeport CEO Tony Wenas said the company has been granted an export quota of approximately 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates and added that the company will apply for a formal export permit from Indonesia's trade ministry.

[Freeport Indonesia Seeks to Obtain Copper Concentrate Export Permit as Soon as Possible] On Thursday, March 13, the CEO of copper miner Freeport Indonesia stated that the company hopes to obtain a copper concentrate export permit as soon as possible after the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources approves the revision of its annual business plan. According to Wenas, under the revised business plan, Freeport seeks to export 1.2 million mt of concentrates, but the ministry has yet to decide on the actual export quota. (Webstock Inc.)

[SMM Commentary: Domestic Inventory Turning Point to Emerge; Where Will Copper Prices Head Amid Trade Uncertainty?] US President Trump ordered an investigation into copper imports, with the results to serve as the basis for imposing new tariffs. Trump stated that a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. On February 26 local time, Trump said he expected to announce tariff hikes on EU goods exported to the US soon. Trump's aggressive tariff measures have drawn strong responses from multiple countries. Market concerns over global trade conflicts have intensified, and under the shadow of trade uncertainty, copper prices fluctuated downward this week.

[SMM Commentary: SHFE Copper Declined This Week, Inventory Buildup Trend May Slow, Copper Market Awaits Clearer Direction] The uncertainty in the global trade outlook disrupted copper prices, with post-holiday copper inventory buildup exceeding the average level of the same period in previous years, putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, copper price fluctuations have made enterprises, already in the off-season of demand, even more cautious in procurement. Although tight supply on the mining side provided strong support for copper prices, SHFE copper still declined this week. As of 16:37 on February 21, LME copper fell by 0.99% to $9,469/mt, with a slight weekly decline of 0.08%; SHFE copper dropped by 0.47%, with a weekly decline of 1.02%.

According to foreign media reports, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the Indonesian government has agreed to allow PT FI to resume copper concentrate export permits before its smelter in Manyar is fully repaired, while the Indonesian government will impose additional export taxes on PT FI.

》View SMM Metal Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Price Trends of SMM Metal Spot On February 21, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$10.8/mt, down $2.13/mt from the previous reading of -$8.67/mt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. During the week, the center of spot copper concentrate TC transactions deteriorated rapidly. According to SMM, the center of spot copper concentrate transactions last week remained around the mid-range of negative single digits. A trader sold 10,000 mt of Package copper concentrates to a smelter at a mid-to-high negative price, with shipment scheduled for late Q1 to early Q2, normal precious metal pricing terms, and QP set at M+5. By this week, several traders began offering spot positions for late Q1 at the beginning of the week. Early in the week, a smelter purchased 30,000 mt of clean ore from a trader at a mid-range negative single-digit processing fee, with QP set at M+5. However, after the mining company's tender results were announced on Tuesday, everything came to an abrupt halt, with many pre-offers being withdrawn and plans to re-offer next week. The tender results showed smelters winning bids at a mid-to-low negative $10 level, while traders won bids at a mid-to-low negative $30 level. These results shocked the market, far exceeding expectations. Recently, foreign media reported that Freeport-McMoRan requested the Indonesian government to allow it to export 1.3 million mt of copper concentrates until year-end. Indonesia has permitted Freeport-McMoRan to export copper concentrates but imposed higher export taxes as a penalty. According to SMM, feedback from a trader indicates that as of today, Indonesia has not yet approved copper concentrate export permits, and traders are still waiting for approval. Additionally, feedback from a mining company suggests that export permits for Indonesian copper concentrates have not yet been approved, but there is a high probability of progress in the near future. SMM believes that since last year, Indonesia has accumulated a significant inventory of copper concentrates that cannot be exported, leading to high business and financial costs for miners and traders. Meanwhile, domestic demand-side smelter construction projects have faced delays and production accidents, preventing demand from being released. Under dual pressures, the Indonesian government may temporarily lift the raw material export ban or wait until all three smelters are operational before reimposing the ban on copper concentrate exports. As of February 21, SMM's nine-port copper concentrate inventory stood at 783,200 mt, down 58,600 mt from the previous period, with the main reduction coming from Nanjing Port. This week, copper concentrate inventory at Nanjing Port decreased by 40,000 mt WoW. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

[SMM Analysis: Can Indonesian Copper Concentrates Be Exported?] Since 2010, Indonesia has repeatedly stirred up discussions on resource export bans to develop its domestic processing industry, aiming to boost employment rates and economic growth. Starting two years ago, the topic of banning Indonesian copper concentrates exports has been highly debated. Additionally, the country has expanded one smelter and constructed two new smelters to ensure domestic consumption of its mineral resources.

》View SMM Metal Prices, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Price Trends of SMM Metal Spot On January 10, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was $4.36/mt, down $1.49/mt from the previous $5.85/mt. The pricing coefficient for domestic trade ore with a grade of 20% was 93%-95%. Recently, spot market trading activities have been relatively active. A trader sold 10,000 mt of Constancia copper concentrates to a smelter, with a processing fee at mid-to-high single digits, shipment scheduled for February, and QP set at M+5. Another trader plans to offer 20,000 mt of bundled ore to a smelter at mid-to-low single digits, with QP set at M+5 and shipment scheduled for February/March. During the week, India's MCP mine tendered 12,000-15,000 mt of copper concentrates to traders, with shipment scheduled for February/March. SPCC tendered 10,000 mt of Cuajone copper ore, with the tender closing in mid-January and QP set at M+5. During the week, three cargoes were traded between traders and smelters. One cargo was a high-grade mixed ore bulk shipment from South America, transacted at mid-to-high single digits, with shipment scheduled for February/March and QP set at M+5. The other two cargoes were containerized mixed ore, each 4,000-5,000 mt, with a processing fee at the low end of $10, shipment scheduled for Q1, and QP set at M+5. A smelter purchased 20,000 mt of Las Bambas from a trader at mid-to-low single digits, with QP set at M+5, shipping 10,000 mt in Q1 and 10,000 mt in Q2. According to SMM, Freeport is expected to initiate the second round of copper concentrate export license negotiations with the Indonesian government by the end of January. According to foreign media reports, Taseko Mines stated that improved ball mill availability at its Gibraltar copper mine could increase copper production to 54,000-59,000 mt, a significant rise compared to 2024. Western Mining Group proposed at its recent 2025 work conference to strive for an annual copper mine production exceeding 185,000 mt, zinc mine production exceeding 130,000 mt, and lead mine production exceeding 60,000 mt in 2025. Hudbay Minerals is seeking to expand its Constancia copper mine in the Cusco region of Peru. The expansion plan includes enlarging the Constancia pit (operational since 2014), installing new processing equipment, and increasing the height of the tailings dam wall. Construction is expected to begin in Q4 2025. As of January 10, SMM's nine-port copper concentrate inventory stood at 936,900 mt, down 167,800 mt from the previous period, with the main reduction coming from Fangchenggang. This week, Fangchenggang's copper concentrate inventory decreased by 110,000 mt WoW. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database