Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,278.5/mt, touched a high of $13,289/mt right after opening, then its center moved downward to hit $12,988/mt, and finally closed at $13,026.5/mt, down 2.59%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, open interest stood at 248,000 lots, a decrease of 4,061 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,200 yuan/mt, edged up slightly to 102,260 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to touch a low of 100,500 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,880 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 93,000 lots, open interest stood at 162,000 lots, an increase of 5,968 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position additions.

[SMM Copper Cathode Production] Copper cathode production in May came in at 1.1694 million mt, down 0.81% MoM and up 2.73% YoY. Cumulative production from January to May was 5.8761 million mt, up 7.66% YoY cumulatively.

Copper cathode production in May was recorded at 1.1694 million mt, down 0.81% MoM and up 2.73% YoY. Cumulative production from January to May was 5.8761 million mt, up 7.66% YoY cumulatively. Raw material side, the copper concentrates index continued to decline this month, having fallen below -$100/dmt, with the current quote at -$108.63/dmt. As sulphur remained relatively tight, smelting-grade sulphuric acid played a supplementary role. Sulphuric acid prices generally trended upward this month, and the spot smelting profit for copper cathode procurement of copper concentrates (including sulphuric acid) in May was still 1,084.04 yuan/mt. Moreover, rising copper prices in May further widened the price difference between primary metal and scrap. Anode plate supply was relatively loose, and some smelters saw higher production compared to the previous month. Maintenance impacts at smelters persisted in May, but newly commissioned smelters ramped up at a moderate pace, and the overall production downward revision in May was limited. Looking at days of inventories, smelter days of inventories in May were 1.59 days, up 0.65 days from April. As prices rose in May, some smelters slowed their shipments, with some smelters indicating they would reserve a portion of inventory for export when prices were favorable. Copper cathode production in June is expected to be 1.1684 million mt, down 0.09% MoM. Copper cathode smelters in June remain in a concentrated maintenance period, with the impact continuing to expand. However, one new enterprise is ramping up production in June, and copper cathode enterprises that completed maintenance in May are gradually recovering production. Therefore, June production is expected to only edge down from May.

McEwen Copper said on May 11 that it has secured arrangements for a $2.4 billion loan package to help finance development of the Los Azules copper project in Argentina. Total project financing is expected to reach $4 billion, alongside a planned IPO later this year. The mine is targeting first production around 2029–2030 with annual copper cathode output exceeding 200,000 tons. Rising copper prices are helping reopen financing channels for major mining projects globally.

Rio Tinto is considering increasing its stake in the Los Azules copper project in Argentina. The project is regarded as one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits and is expected to begin production in 2030, with average annual copper cathode output estimated at approximately 204,800 mt during its first five years of operation. Rio Tinto currently holds around 17.2% of project developer McEwen Copper through its Nuton venture, while Stellantis is also among the project’s key shareholders. Market attention remains focused on major mining companies continuing to strengthen investments in high-quality global copper resources.

Based on calculations derived from the production plans of major smelters, Japan's copper cathode production in H1 of fiscal year 2026/27 is expected to grow 3.3% YoY, driven by firm demand for copper alloy products and copper wire in the power sector.H1 of the fiscal year runs from April to September.A spokesperson for Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), Japan's largest copper supplier, said the company's copper cathode production in H1 is expected to rise 7.5% YoY, as the operating rate at smelters under JX Advanced Metals is expected to improve.

Data released by the Kazakhstan Bureau of Statistics showed that Kazakhstan's copper cathode production in January-February 2026 fell 9.1% YoY.Copper Cathode: February 2026 production was 35,625 mt, down 7.8% MoM; total production in January-February was 74,266 mt, down 9.1% YoY.

February SMM China copper cathode production decreased by 36,900 mt MoM, a decline of 3.13%, and was up 7.96% YoY.

[SMM Analysis:It was like holding up a collapsing tower]Over the past three years, as China's smelting capacity for primary smelting has been concentratedly commissioned, year-end negotiations between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have been particularly challenging. Since the end of last month, Antofagasta consistently maintained its Benchmark offer to Chinese smelters in the mid-negative $10 from the first to the second round. During this period, the China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) and the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association repeatedly stated their firm stance: they would not accept any long-term pricing system other than the Benchmark, would not accept a negative Benchmark result, and were determined to reduce primary smelting output. Expectations for production cuts in primary smelting among Chinese copper smelters grew stronger. Facing these difficulties head-on, Chinese smelters, with one leading enterprise arguing forcefully on principle and without conceding on other terms, finally reached a $0 agreement with Antofagasta on the night of December 19, paving the way for other participating Chinese smelters to follow suit. Prior to this, market pessimism was rampant, with bearish narratives circulating widely. Given the mining company's persistent negative offers over multiple rounds, the market generally expected Chinese smelters to reluctantly accept a negative figure, ushering in an era of negative annual contracts. From the outcome, these negotiations were nothing short of turning the tide and preventing a catastrophic collapse.

【SMM News Flash】Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on December 18 showed that China's copper cathode production in November reached 1.236 million mt, up 11.9% YoY. Cumulative production from January to November totaled 13.323 million mt, up 9.8% YoY. China's copper semis output in November was 2.226 million mt, down 0.8% YoY. Cumulative production from January to November reached 22.593 million mt, up 4.9% YoY.