Data released by the Kazakhstan Bureau of Statistics showed that Kazakhstan's copper cathode production in January-February 2026 fell 9.1% YoY.Copper Cathode: February 2026 production was 35,625 mt, down 7.8% MoM; total production in January-February was 74,266 mt, down 9.1% YoY.

February SMM China copper cathode production decreased by 36,900 mt MoM, a decline of 3.13%, and was up 7.96% YoY.

On June 17, the share price of China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (CNMC) rose. As of 14:29 on June 17, CNMC's shares increased by 2.03%, closing at HK$7.03 per share. On June 16, CNMC (01258) announced that its subsidiary, CNMC (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited, had signed the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement with Gecamines on June 16, 2025. The total contract value was approximately $67.03 million, involving the purchase of 7,000 metric tons of high-grade copper cathode processed by CNMC Huaxin Hydrometallurgy. CNMC (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of the company. Gecamines holds a 40% stake in the company's subsidiary, Kambove Mining, and is considered a connected person at the subsidiary level under the Listing Rules. Therefore, the transactions proposed under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement constitute connected transactions of the company under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules. According to CNMC's announcement, as one or more of the applicable percentage ratios in relation to the transactions proposed under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement, when considered on a standalone basis, exceed 0.1% but are all below 5%, these transactions are subject to the reporting, annual review, and announcement requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules and are exempt from the requirement for independent shareholders' approval. Under Rule 14A.81 of the Listing Rules, if a series of connected transactions are all conducted within the same 12-month period or are interrelated, these transactions must be aggregated and treated as a single transaction. The transactions proposed under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement are similar in nature to previous transactions and must be aggregated. When aggregated with previous transactions, all applicable percentage ratios for the transactions proposed under this agreement exceed 0.1% but are below 5%. Therefore, these transactions are subject to the reporting and announcement requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules and are exempt from the requirement for independent shareholders' approval. The key terms of the agreement include the agreement period from June 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025. Pricing: The price per metric ton for the copper cathode sold under the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement shall be determined by reference to the average price during the agreed quotation period (i.e., the month following the delivery month, hereinafter referred to as the "Quotation Period"). This price is calculated by deducting a discount of $425 per metric ton from the daily cash seller's quotation for Grade A copper on the London Metal Exchange during the Quotation Period, after fair negotiations between the contracting parties. Therefore, the total market value of the copper cathode is approximately $70,000,000 (before deducting the discount). Payment: The payment for the 2025 Gecamines Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement shall be made by CNMC (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited to Gecamines' designated account via telegraphic transfer within five (5) working days after the delivery of the copper cathode. Delivery Period: CNMC Hong Kong Holdings Limited is required to appoint a carrier to dispatch trucks to Gécamines' plant for cargo loading within ten (10) days from the date Gécamines provides the goods. Regarding the reasons for this transaction, the announcement by China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (CNMC) indicates that the copper cathode purchased under the 2025 agreement will meet the demand for copper cathode from CNMC Hong Kong Holdings Limited and its customers. The Board believes that entering into this agreement is beneficial to the Group and aligns with the Group's business and commercial objectives. The agreement was negotiated on a one-off basis, taking into account the recent demand for copper cathode and the market supply and demand conditions at the time of signing. As of the announcement date, the Group has no plans to purchase copper cathode from Gécamines on an annual basis. If the Company plans to engage in continuous daily transactions with Gécamines in the future, it will comply with all applicable provisions of the Listing Rules. When commenting on CNMC's 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 results, Minsheng Securities stated: "Historical best annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with expectations for sustained growth in self-produced copper." On April 25, 2025, the Company released its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 results. In 2024, the Company achieved revenue of $3.817 billion, up 5.8% YoY, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $399 million, up 43.6% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the Company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $85 million in 2024Q4, up 273.9% YoY and down 11.1% MoM; in 2025Q1, the Company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $123 million, up 46% YoY and up 46% QoQ. The 2025Q1 results exceeded market expectations. The record-high net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was mainly due to the rise in copper prices. ① Production: Affected by the change of service providers and tight power supply in the DRC, the self-produced copper output declined slightly YoY. In 2024, the Company's production of blister copper and copper anode/copper cathode/sulphuric acid was 28.6/12.6/1.056 million mt, with YoY changes of +0.1%, -11.4%, and +10.5%, respectively. Among them, self-produced blister copper and copper anode/copper cathode were 7.77/81,500 mt, down 11.4% and 0.2% YoY, respectively. The total self-produced copper ore was 159,000 mt, down 6% YoY. The decrease in self-produced blister copper and copper anode output was mainly due to a 10.9% YoY decline in CNMC Nonferrous Mining's copper output to 68,000 mt, as the change of underground mining service providers in H1 affected the production of sulphide ore. From a quarterly production perspective, Q2-Q4 had recovered to a level of 17,000-18,000 mt per quarter. In addition, although self-produced copper cathode production remained basically flat, the production of copper cathode from externally purchased oxide ore decreased, leading to a YoY decline in total copper cathode output, mainly due to production losses at Huaxin Hydrometallurgy and Huaxin Mabende caused by power shortages in the DRC. ② Sales: Production and sales were basically balanced. It is worth noting that cobalt production was only 633 mt, down 49.6% YoY, possibly due to the prolonged downturn in cobalt prices. ③ Unit Price: Rising copper prices contributed to profit growth. ④ Cost: Cost control was strong, with overall costs remaining stable. ⑤ Lightly Equipped with Excellent Asset Quality. In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly both YoY and QoQ, mainly due to the rise in copper prices and the normalization of copper production. ① Production: In Q1 2025, the company's production of blister copper and copper anode/copper cathode/sulphuric acid was 10.97/3.50/271,400 mt respectively. Among them, the production of blister copper and copper anode, and sulphuric acid was basically flat YoY, while the production of copper cathode increased by 8% YoY. This was mainly because the production of copper cathode at Huaxin Mabende and Huaxin Hydrometallurgy, two hydrometallurgical smelters in the DRC, increased by 49% and 20% YoY respectively. The increase in production was due to the company's efforts to ensure power supply through multiple measures such as constructing PV power generation and diesel power generation facilities. The self-produced blister copper and copper anode (CNMC Luanshya + CNMC Nonferrous Mine + Chambishi Hydrometallurgy)/copper cathode (CNMC Luanshya + Chambishi Hydrometallurgy + Gambowe Mining) were 21,400/21,700 mt respectively, increasing by 22.4% and decreasing by 3.7% YoY respectively. The total self-produced copper ore was 43,000 mt, up 7.7% YoY. The increase in self-produced blister copper and copper anode production was mainly due to the 26.7% YoY increase in copper production at Chambishi Copper Mine of CNMC Nonferrous Mine, as the low base caused by the replacement of mine service providers in the same period last year affected production, which has now returned to normal this year. ② Unit Price: In Q1 2025, the prices of copper and cobalt were 77,300 yuan/mt and 170,000 yuan/mt respectively, changing by +11.3% and -17.1% YoY, and increasing by 2.4% and 4.6% QoQ respectively. The long-term contract TC for 2025 was $21.25/mt. The vast majority of the company's smelter raw materials come from copper concentrates locked in through long-term contracts. However, due to successful negotiations on freight sharing, the decline in some of the TC was offset, so the impact of the decline in smelting processing fees on the company was less than that on domestic companies. Core Highlights: ① Endogenous Growth: CNMC Africa Mining, CNMC Luanshya, and Chambishi Hydrometallurgy, subsidiaries of the company, will research and promote the following projects in the next 3-5 years: the expansion of the Chambishi Southeast Orebody, the new mine of CNMC Luanshya, the mining and beneficiation project of the Samba Mine, and the production resumptions of the Gambowe West Orebody and MSESA Orebody, indicating significant endogenous growth potential. ② Outward Mergers and Acquisitions: At the group level, to address horizontal competition issues, the DRC company and Deziwa Copper Mine are expected to be injected into the publicly listed firm. ③ Scarcity of High-Dividend Copper Targets. Risk Warnings: Continuous decline in smelting processing fees, decline in copper prices, and geopolitical risks. Guosen Securities commented on CNMC Mining in its research report, stating: Core Mines: In 2024, CNMC Africa Mining produced approximately 68,200 mt of copper anode, down about 11% YoY; CNMC Luanshya produced approximately 44,400 mt of copper cathode, up about 2% YoY, and 4,159 mt of copper anode, down about 47% YoY; Gambowe Mining produced approximately 34,400 mt of copper cathode, up about 4% YoY. High Dividend Payout Ratio: The company plans to distribute a dividend of 4.2893¢ per share, with a total dividend amount of approximately $167 million, accounting for 42% of the company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024. The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 40% for four consecutive years since 2020, with its dividend payout ratio and dividend yield ranking among the leading levels in the industry. The company's captive mine is expected to gradually increase its annual copper production to approximately 300,000 mt in the medium and long term. Risk Warnings: Risk of mineral product selling prices not meeting expectations, risk of the company's project construction progress not meeting expectations, and risk of changes in policies related to mineral resources in overseas countries.

View SMM Copper Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis Click to View SMM Spot Copper Historical Price Trends SMM May 30 News: China's copper cathode production in May increased by 12,600 mt MoM, up 1.12%, and rose 12.86% YoY. Cumulative production from January-May increased by 544,800 mt YoY, up 11.09%. May's copper cathode production exceeded expectations by 8,400 mt, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) Smelters that underwent maintenance in April resumed production as scheduled, with output exceeding expectations; 2) Production at newly commissioned smelters continued to rise; 3) Imports of copper anode plates continued to increase in May; 4) Inventories of copper concentrates at major domestic ports slightly declined from 835,600 mt at April-end to 795,900 mt at May-end, though still significantly higher than the 575,200 mt recorded in mid-March, indicating no tightness in copper concentrate supply for smelters. 5) Sulphuric acid prices rebounded in May due to reduced supply and increased export demand, a trend expected to persist until late June. Higher sulphuric acid prices effectively offset smelting losses. However, it is noteworthy that production at smelters not using copper concentrates (relying on copper scrap or anode plates) declined due to tight copper scrap supply, as reflected in their lower operating rate (68.9% in May, down 3 percentage points). Additionally, mid-year long-term contract negotiations between mines and smelters have commenced, with the first round offering TC-$15/mt, implying most smelters—whether under long-term contracts or spot orders—will face losses, increasing pressure for future production cuts. In summary, the sample operating rate for China's copper cathode industry in May was 88.82%, up 1.02 percentage points MoM. Large smelters recorded an operating rate of 92.73% (up 1.58 percentage points MoM), medium-sized smelters at 84.68% (up 1.92 percentage points MoM), and small smelters at 62.89% (down 8.5 percentage points MoM). Smelters using copper concentrates operated at 93.3% (up 1.8 percentage points MoM), while those not using copper concentrates (relying on copper scrap or anode plates) operated at 68.9% (down 3 percentage points MoM). Entering June, only one smelter in our survey has maintenance plans. However, the number of enterprises reporting lower capacity utilisation rates has increased significantly, with nearly 40% of surveyed firms implementing production cuts to varying degrees—double the figure in May. Thus, total production in June is expected to decline MoM. Based on production schedules, SMM forecasts China's June copper cathode output to drop by 7,200 mt MoM (down 0.63%), while rising by 126,100 mt YoY (up 12.55%). The cumulative production from January to June is expected to increase by 670,900 mt YoY, with a growth rate of 11.34%. In June, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry was 88.26%, down 0.56 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.27%, down 1.46 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 84.46%, down 0.22 percentage points MoM; and the operating rate of small smelters was 70.65%, up 7.76 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 92.5%, down 0.8 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (copper scrap or copper anode) was 69.6%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. Finally, we expect production to continue to decline in July, with tight raw material supply being the main reason.

[SMM Analysis:The Back structure is difficult to sustain ]

[SMM Analysis:Accelerated Inventory Reduction and the Turning Point of Inventory] After experiencing an inventory buildup during the Chinese New Year holiday and the accelerated supply of copper cathodes in the first quarter exceeding expectations, which led to a rapid accumulation of social copper cathode inventory in China, the total social inventory of copper cathodes reached a peak on March 3rd. Following that, due to factors such as improved downstream consumption, better price ratios, and continuous export growth, the inventory of copper cathodes saw a sharp decline starting from early March. Does this indicate that the inventory turning point has arrived? Is this trend of inventory reduction sustainable?

[SMM Analysis: Global Copper Cathode Production Expected to Polarize] The topic of production cuts at Chinese copper smelters has remained a hot issue. In fact, since the end of 2023, some small and medium-sized smelters have been implementing indirect production cuts by reducing the efficiency of copper concentrate feeding, shutting down production lines, lowering the grade of copper concentrate fed into furnaces, and increasing the proportion of copper-containing materials fed into furnaces.

In July, China's copper cathode output was 1.0282 million mt, up 2.31% MoM (+23,200 mt) and 11.05% YoY, exceeding the expected 1.0166 million mt by 11,600 mt. The output from January to July totalled 6.9465 million mt, up 461,400 mt YoY (+7.11% YoY).

In July, China's copper cathode output was 1.0282 million mt, up 2.31% MoM (+23,200 mt) and 11.05% YoY, exceeding the expected 1.0166 million mt by 11,600 mt.

In June, China's copper cathode production was 1.005 million mt, down 3,600 mt MoM, a decrease of 0.36% MoM but up 9.49% YoY, and 20,000 mt higher than the expected 985,000 mt.