Amid sustained demand growth, India plans to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earths. The stockpile will be sized to cover six months of domestic consumption, aiming to guard against risks of global supply disruptions and sharp raw material price volatility. Led by India’s Ministry of Mines and Ministry of Heavy Industries, the reserve covers key raw materials essential for new energy vehicles, energy storage and the electronics sector, fields where India currently relies heavily on imports. At present, the United States, China, South Korea and other countries have already established strategic reserve systems for critical minerals.

Vale reported first-quarter net revenue of $9.26 billion, up 14% year on year, though slightly below analysts’ forecast of $9.37 billion. The company said higher sales volumes across its key products, including iron ore, copper, and nickel, were among the main drivers of revenue growth. The figures suggest a clear recovery in Vale’s core business revenue as commodity prices improved.

Vale’s nickel sales rose 15.2% year on year in the first quarter, while output reached its highest first-quarter level since 2020. The company said both copper and nickel production posted multi-year highs for the period, indicating a solid start to 2026 for its base metals business. The result points to improving nickel supply performance at Vale and stronger support for overall quarterly sales growth.

According to Reuters, Glencore’s 2026 cobalt export quota, together with the carried-over volume from 2025, totals 22,800 tonnes. The company produced 5,800 tonnes of cobalt in the first quarter of 2026, down 39% year-on-year. Output from its Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda operations that exceeds allocated quotas is being stored locally in the DRC for future sale when market conditions improve. Constrained by export limits, the company is postponing the final processing of cobalt to cut processing costs. Current inventories at the two operations are sufficient to cover near-term export quota shipments. Glencore has mostly fulfilled its 2025 export quota in the first quarter, with the remaining volume shipped in April.

The share of EQ copper cathode in imports continued to expand in Q1 2026. Following shares of 68.12% and 70.78% in January and February respectively, the EQ share further climbed to 73.53% in March. Looking at the seasonal charts from 2022 to 2026, March tends to be the annual peak for EQ share. This year's 73.53% not only exceeded the same period in 2024 and 2025, but also confirmed that under the reality of inverted SHFE/LME price ratio and import windows under pressure, EQ sources have further consolidated their position as the "main force" of China's copper cathode imports. Supply side, the previously noted "African source diversion" phenomenon was confirmed in March data. As the US increased its stockpiling of global copper cathode resources, changes in the flow of African sources remain worth monitoring. Taking DRC as an example, its March supply rebounded from 64,900 mt in February to 93,100 mt, but still fell short of January's level. This indicates that although African sources previously affected by logistics and other factors have partially recovered, under the backdrop of global resource reallocation and long-term contract diversions by multinational giants, the incremental space for DRC copper cathode flowing into China is constrained, and the price spread between EQ and registered copper continues to narrow. Unlike the supply situation of African sources, Russian and Kazakh sources saw significant growth in March. Breaking the previously relatively stable monthly import trend, Russia's copper cathode imports rose to 49,700 mt in March, a notable increase MoM, while Kazakhstan also rose to 13,900 mt. These additional EQ resources effectively filled the gap left by constrained African sources. Considering that sulfur supply and shipping capacity issues in Africa have not been fully resolved, the incremental flow of African SX-EW copper to China is expected to remain limited going forward. However, given the overall limited imports, the share of EQ copper imports is expected to remain elevated.

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mine enterprises indicated that lead concentrate TCs had almost no room for further decline, while imported ore prices were still mainly quoted at -$150 to -$130/dmt. Affected by the recent tight supply-demand conditions of zinc concentrates and copper concentrates, some suppliers of lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the pricing methods for copper and zinc. Although the comprehensive value of such copper- and zinc-rich lead concentrates was raised, the pricing of lead and precious metals within them remained unchanged, and the silver payable indicators for lead concentrates with various silver contents in the market remained firm.

High copper prices, ample supply, weak demand, inventory buildup, weak structure ↓ Falling copper prices, still ample supply, good demand, destocking, slightly stronger structure ↓ Fluctuating copper prices, relatively tight supply, demand fluctuating with copper prices, high probability of destocking, high probability of strengthening structure Q1 2026 has ended, and April trading days are also about to end. The above two sentences summarize SHFE copper futures and spot market performance. Note that this refers only to copper cathode supply, as China saw significant production increases in 2025. Despite continued ore tightness, production in 2026 has also remained fluctuating at highs, keeping copper cathode supply persistently ample. Demand side, although annual demand showed growth, when broken down to monthly or even daily levels, demand was significantly influenced by copper prices. Amid copper price fluctuations, secondary copper was the "active player" — when copper prices were high, secondary copper shipments increased, benefiting both supply and demand sides; when copper prices fell, secondary copper shipments decreased, reducing some raw material supply for both supply and demand. So recently the spot market appeared to have tight supply. Smelters began shifting to "high prices with high volumes" in shipments. Against the backdrop of continued destocking and concentrated smelter maintenance, can premiums "heat up"? The chart above shows that from a macro perspective, copper prices and Shanghai spot copper premiums exhibited a clear inverse correlation in recent years. However, from a detailed perspective, Shanghai spot copper premiums have recently shown signs of "picking up" under high copper prices. 1. Although inventory continued destocking, the current warrant-to-inventory ratio remained elevated (this indicator is highly correlated with structure). The SHFE copper near-month structure has not shown a sustained backwardation structure to provide guidance for future premiums. 2. Although copper prices returned to highs, overall secondary copper shipment sentiment remained subdued, providing limited supplementation to copper cathode production and consumption. Previously, the price difference between primary metal and scrap was inverted, which favored copper cathode consumption. During this process, non-registered supply supplementation was limited, and the price spread between non-registered and SX-EW copper also narrowed. Imported copper supplementation within the year decreased YoY compared to previous years. Taking DRC as an example, non-registered supply was also diverted. Overall, substitutes for registered copper cathode decreased. 3. Copper cathode supply itself is about to decrease in the coming months, with concentrated maintenance currently underway in the market. Social inventory is expected to further decline. As inventory decreases and the warrant-to-inventory ratio declines, the far-month structure has already shifted to backwardation. China's spot premiums are also expected to pick up in the near term. It has been observed that Guangdong spot premiums have been consistently higher than other regions nationwide for several consecutive days. Downstream buyers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui have recently tended to purchase from direct producers and traders with inventory who can issue invoices for the current month. Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to see a small spike before the Labour Day holiday. After the holiday, as domestic supply decreases, premiums are expected to gradually firm up. However, the warrant-to-inventory ratio remains relatively high, and a sustained shift to backwardation in the structure still requires patience.

1. Guangdong Jushen Warehousing Co., Ltd. is approved as an international copper delivery warehouse of our exchange, located at No. 16 Baojiang Road, Huangpu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, with an approved storage capacity of 10,000 mt and no regional premiums. 2. Hengruibao Warehousing (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is approved to add a new storage location at No. 60 Baojin Road, Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Guangdong Province, with an approved storage capacity of 10,000 mt for international copper and no regional premiums. 3. The above shall take effect from the date of this announcement.

The most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 89,560 yuan/mt today. It maintained wild swings in early trading, then the copper price center gradually shifted upward to 89,990 yuan/mt after the daytime session opened, before fluctuating downward to a low of 89,150 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 89,460 yuan/mt, down 0.26%. Open interest stood at 9,089 lots, an increase of 166 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 5,934 lots, indicating bears adding positions. The US Fed kept the current interest rate unchanged, with notable internal policy stance divergence. Powell will remain as a governor after stepping down as Fed Chairman, and Warsh's nomination has passed the Senate committee review. Trump stated that conditions were currently suitable for an interest rate cut, while making clear that sanctions on Iran would not be lifted until the Iranian nuclear issue is resolved. The US and Iran are currently maintaining phone communications. Iran released a tough signal, warning that if the US continued to seize vessels, it might take unprecedented military countermeasures, with related retaliation plans still advancing. Combined with rising international crude oil prices, the overall atmosphere exerted some pressure on copper prices. Fundamentals side, on the supply end, arrivals of imported copper pulled back, while domestic source arrivals remained stable. However, approaching the month-end settlement period, suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and spot circulation remained tight. Demand side, end-user pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed, overall procurement sentiment was sluggish, and spot trades were mediocre. Inventory side, as of Thursday April 30, SMM copper cathode social inventory in major regions nationwide decreased by 5,600 mt WoW to 243,000 mt; current total inventory was 113,400 mt higher compared to the same period last year at 129,600 mt. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 101,030 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper 2606 contract at 89,460 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 101,089 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2606 and BC copper was -59, with the spread returning to an inverted state.

Jiangxi Copper Corporation announced that, to further optimize its industrial layout, broaden financing channels, enhance the core competitiveness of its controlled subsidiary JCC Copper Foil, and continuously strengthen the copper foil business, the company is expected to spin off JCC Copper Foil for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This spin-off will not result in the company losing control over JCC Copper Foil, which will remain a controlled subsidiary within the company's consolidated financial statements, and will not have a material impact on the business operations and development of the company's other segments.