The ongoing delay by the White House on potential refined copper import tariffs under President Donald Trump is accelerating structural dislocations across the global physical copper market. Although the statutory timeline for U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to deliver a recommendation has lapsed without a public ruling, the regulatory ambiguity itself has become a primary driver of global trade dynamics. By keeping the tariff threat active, the U.S. has sustained an elevated delivery premium that continues to incentivize aggressive physical inflows into American ports. Over the past 18 months, this mechanism has allowed the country to build a substantial domestic stockpile of a critical metal essential to both green energy transition and advanced technology sectors. However, this deliberate accumulation has come at the direct expense of liquidity in non-U.S. markets. Physical metal is being systematically diverted away from international hubs, driving rapid inventory drawdowns across both London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses. As regional pricing premiums widen and trade flows skew disproportionately toward the United States, prolonged tariff uncertainty risks transforming temporary arbitrage plays into a permanent, structural fracture in the global copper market.

South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has proposed expanding the country’s automotive incentive framework to include minerals used in electric-vehicle battery manufacturing, supporting deeper localisation of the domestic automotive and battery-material supply chains. Under the proposal, the existing list of eligible standard materials including aluminium, steel and platinum-group metals would be expanded to cover lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper, iron and rare earths. Eligible materials would need to originate from member states of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) or Southern African Development Community (SADC). The proposed framework would recognise 50% of the value of qualifying EV battery materials as local content, potentially improving producers’ eligibility for automotive-sector incentives. The policy aligns with the South African Automotive Master Plan 2035, which aims to increase vehicle production, local content and investment as the industry transitions toward electric mobility. Stakeholders were given four weeks from the notice date to submit comments, meaning the final scope and implementation schedule remain subject to consultation. SMM comments: The proposal represents a demand-side approach to developing Africa’s battery supply chain, contrasting with Zimbabwe’s supply side policy of restricting concentrate exports to force domestic processing. If implemented, South Africa could emerge as a regional battery material processing or manufacturing hub sourcing feedstock from neighbouring SADC producers, including Zimbabwe and Namibia. However, the near-term impact on regional lithium trade flows is likely to be limited. Major Zimbabwean lithium assets including Arcadia, Bikita and Sabi Star are controlled by Chinese companies with established China-linked processing and offtake arrangements. It also remains unclear whether spodumene concentrate would qualify directly as an eligible battery material or whether further conversion into lithium sulphate, carbonate or hydroxide would be required. The final rules should therefore be monitored alongside Zimbabwe’s planned January 2027 lithium concentrate export deadline, as the two policies could influence future investment and trade flows within Southern Africa.

Selkirk Copper announced an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for its Minto project in Canada's Yukon, reporting an 182% increase in measured and indicated contained copper and a 184% increase in measured and indicated contained gold compared with the previous estimate. The updated resource also reflects higher confidence through resource conversion and supports the company's ongoing advancement toward a planned feasibility study and potential mine restart.

India's Vedanta reported a 72% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit to INR 54.73 billion for the quarter ended June 30, driven by higher prices for zinc, copper and silver. Revenue rose 51% to INR 234.56 billion, while net profit margin expanded to 22% despite higher raw material costs. The company also announced that Arun Misra, currently CEO of Hindustan Zinc, will become Vedanta's Chief Executive Officer for a one-year term starting August 1.

At around 15:30 on July 26, a safety incident occurred during production and construction at the underground Area 3 of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin, resulting in one fatality and no other injuries. On July 28, Xingye Silver&Tin announced for the first time that the underground mining areas of Yinman Mining had been suspended, while the beneficiation plant remained in normal operation. At that time, Yinman Mining had approximately 350,000 mt of surface ore, which was expected to support the beneficiation plant's production for about two and a half months. On July 30, Yinman Mining further received an "On-site Disposition Decision" (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] No. 260 issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous suspension of the beneficiation and tailings systems. As of the announcement disclosure, Yinman Mining's mining system, beneficiation and tailings systems had all been suspended. The previous plan to sustain beneficiation production using ore inventory could no longer be implemented, directly impacting mineral product production. Yinman Mining has an existing mining and beneficiation capacity of 1.65 million mt per year and is the core tin-silver mine under Xingye Silver&Tin. Xingye Silver&Tin did not separately disclose Yinman Mining's actual copper metal production in 2025. According to the original project design, Yinman Mining's copper concentrates contain approximately 1,100 mt of copper metal per year; Xingye Silver&Tin's consolidated mine-produced copper output in 2025 was 2,380.89 mt. As Yinman Mining's copper production scale is relatively small, this suspension will have limited impact on China's overall supply of copper concentrates, with the impact expected to be mainly concentrated on products such as tin and silver. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to the progress of accident investigation, tailings system rectification, and production resumption acceptance.

Due to tight supply of tax-included copper scrap, supply of secondary blister copper and copper anode in China is expected to tighten further in August. In the week from July 24 to July 30, SMM's weekly operating rate of secondary copper anode enterprises in China recorded 54.05%, and is expected to decline by 8.65 percentage points WoW next week to 45.40%. SMM's quotes for blister copper RCs in China currently stand at 600-800 yuan/mt, and copper anode RCs at 450-550 yuan/mt, both having fallen to the lowest levels this year.

On July 30, Chifeng Gold's stock price fell. By the close on July 30, Chifeng Gold had dropped 1.82% to 37.17 yuan/share. Chifeng Gold disclosed on July 30 a notice regarding the updated resource estimate for the SND project of the Laos Sepon gold-copper mine, stating: Its controlling subsidiary, LaneXang Minerals Limited Company, completed the first-phase resource exploration work for the SND gold-copper project by the end of June 2025, and SRK Consulting (China) Ltd. issued a "Mineral Resource Estimate Report for the Sepon SND Gold-Copper Project" compliant with the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves" on August 7, 2025. Based on this, the company released its initial resource estimate. For details, please refer to the "Notice on Initial Resource Estimate for the SND Project of the Laos Sepon Gold-Copper Mine" (Notice No.: 2025-046) disclosed on August 8, 2025. In late June 2026, the exploration team of Vientiane Mining completed the second-phase drilling work for the SND gold-copper project. On July 30, 2026, Snowden Optiro issued an updated mineral resource estimate report compliant with the JORC Code. This report supersedes the initial mineral resource estimate report. Compared with the initial estimate, the gold equivalent metal content increased from 107 mt to 260 mt, up approximately 143%. The mineral resource estimate disclosed by Chifeng Gold shows: This mineral resource estimation work was completed by the exploration department of Vientiane Mining and reviewed by the independent international mining consultancy Snowden Optiro, using all drill holes completed by the end of May 2026 and all assay data received before July 10, 2026. The review scope covered data quality control and assurance, database update and verification, geological interpretation and modeling, mineralization domain delineation, ore bulk density zoning and interpolation, block model construction, geostatistical kriging neighborhood analysis, grade interpolation, model validation, resource classification, and technical report compilation. The review conclusion of Snowden Optiro's geologist (JORC Competent Person) on the SND mineral resource estimation work was: This resource estimation meets industry standards, has no significant data issues or errors, and is suitable for public disclosure. The effective date of this report is July 30, 2026. Based on the underground sublevel caving mining method, stope optimization was conducted to determine the potential mining area, constrained by a cut-off grade of 0.4 g/t gold equivalent. Indicated resources total approximately 170 million mt, with an average grade of 0.55 g/t gold and 0.26% copper, containing 96 mt of gold metal and 450,000 mt of copper metal. Inferred resources total approximately 190 million mt, with an average grade of 0.39 g/t gold and 0.19% copper, containing 76 mt of gold metal and 360,000 mt of copper metal. Total resources amount to approximately 360 million mt, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.47 g/t, containing 170 mt of gold metal and 810,000 mt of copper metal, and the gold equivalent metal content is approximately 260 mt. The resource estimate is summarized in the following table: The risk warning disclosed by Chifeng Gold indicates: The SND gold-copper project remains in the exploration stage. The resource estimate in this notice is based on certain assumptions and judgments, contains forward-looking statements, and does not constitute any substantive commitment or investment advice. Investors are advised to be aware of investment risks. In terms of performance: Chifeng Gold disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the financial department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm is expected to range from 1.70 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan for the first half of 2026, an increase of 593.1 million yuan to 673.1 million yuan, or up 54% to 61% YoY, compared with 1.1069 billion yuan in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items is expected to range from 1.71 billion yuan to 1.79 billion yuan, an increase of 598.09 million yuan to 678.09 million yuan, or up 54% to 61% YoY, compared with 1.11191 billion yuan in the same period last year. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change, Chifeng Gold stated: The significant YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit after deducting non-recurring items for the first half of 2026 was mainly driven by the sharp rise in gold prices compared to the same period last year, with the average gold selling price up approximately 43% YoY, coupled with the company's continuous efforts to strengthen production organization and operational management, which boosted performance for the period. Regarding its main business, Chifeng Gold introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company belongs to the non-ferrous metal ore mining and beneficiation industry, with main products including precious metals such as gold and non-ferrous metals such as copper cathode. Its core business is gold mining, beneficiation, and sales, while also engaging in multi-metal mining, beneficiation, and comprehensive resource recycling. The company operates 6 gold mines and 1 multi-metal mine globally, with a business footprint covering China, Southeast Asia, and West Africa. Among them, domestic subsidiaries Jilong Mining, Wulong Mining, Huatai Mining, and Jintai Mining focus on gold mining and beneficiation; Hanfeng Mining focuses on multi-metal mining and beneficiation of zinc, lead, copper, and molybdenum; its controlling subsidiary, Laos Vientiane Mining, mainly engages in gold mining, beneficiation, and copper metal mining and smelting; its controlling subsidiary, Ghana-based Wasa, mainly engages in gold mining and beneficiation. Additionally, its controlling subsidiary Guangyuan Technology is deeply involved in comprehensive resource recycling, focusing on environmental protection businesses such as dismantling waste electrical and electronic equipment. Pacific Securities commented on May 7 on Chifeng Gold's evolution, showing: Multiple project technological transformations combined with routine maintenance led to a YoY decline in mined gold production. In 2026Q1, the company's mined gold production was 2.98 mt, down 10.7% YoY and 21.7% MoM, achieving 20% of the annual target. The production decline was mainly due to factors including multiple project technological transformations and routine maintenance. Specifically: Jilong Mining's hoist underwent a modification from single-rope to multi-rope, and Wulong Mining conducted renovation works on multiple blind shafts, both of which temporarily restricted ore extraction capacity; the beneficiation plant at the Laos Sepon gold-copper mine underwent annual large-scale routine maintenance, coupled with planned downtime maintenance for one of its high-temperature oxygen autoclaves, leading to a YoY decline in ore processing volume. Rising tax rates combined with declining production led to an increase in unit sales costs. The expense ratio remained relatively stable, while the asset-liability ratio continued to decrease. In 2026Q1, the company's ROE was 6.9%, up 2.5 pct YoY; the period expense ratio was 5.9%, down 0.6 pct YoY and up 0.1 pct MoM. As of 2026Q1, the company's asset-liability ratio was 29.4%, down 9.3 pct YoY and 4.5 pct MoM. Risk warning: wild swings in prices, cost side overshoot, and project progress delays.

In North China, as of this Thursday, spot premiums stood at 40-140 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 90 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from last Thursday. The market was in the traditional demand off-season, downstream procurement remained generally weak, end-user inquiries were scarce, and only sporadic rigid demand deals were concluded. Suppliers' willingness to sell pulled back toward the week's end, and a mentality of holding prices firm emerged. Overall, spot trades stayed sluggish this week, with a weak trading atmosphere. Looking ahead, the off-season pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term, end-user procurement intensity will stay low, and spot trading activity in North China is expected to remain weak.

This week (7.24-7.30), the operating rate of enamelled wire industry machines was down WoW...

[SMM Analysis: US and Europe Expand Copper Recycling Capacity as Scrap Localisation Takes Shape]The US and Europe are expanding recycling capacity and tightening resource policies to retain more copper scrap locally. Aurubis projects in Hamburg and Georgia will increase complex-feedstock processing, while export controls may further limit trade flows. Asian buyers could face higher payabilities, longer lead times and tighter supply.