Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 84,590 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, it touched a low of 83,920 yuan/mt. Following the opening, the center kept rising, and during the afternoon session it touched a high of 85,490 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 84,840 yuan/mt, up 0.7%. Open interest stood at 1,868 lots, down 468 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 1,952 lots, down 2,118 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US President Trump again extended by 10 days the deadline he had set for not attacking Iran’s energy facilities, saying that talks with Iran were “going very smoothly,” which eased market concerns over a prolonged conflict. Fundamentally, imported cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestic cargoes remained stable, leaving overall supply ample. Demand side, affected by the pullback in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly maintained just-in-time procurement. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 95,950 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 84,840 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 95,869 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 81 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, narrowing somewhat from the previous day.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Supply side, some suppliers had already sold part of their imported cargoes during the day, such as Onsan, SR-P, and Polish large plates, while a large volume of imported copper is still set to arrive next week, and whether actual supply will increase significantly remains to be seen. If copper prices continue to fluctuate rangebound within the current range, the increase in supply will weigh on spot premiums. Demand side, next week will usher in a stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, and downstream enterprises may have demand to restock in advance. Spot transactions are expected to improve, which may provide temporary support to premiums. In addition, from the perspective of market structure, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained at a relatively narrow level, reflecting that current market trading is mainly driven by actual consumption demand, with brand premiums weakening and buyers paying more attention to price itself rather than brand differences. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level next Monday.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,264.5/mt. After testing a low of $12,282.5/mt in early trading, its center fluctuated downward, nearing the close and hitting a low of $12,079/mt, before finally closing at $12,120/mt, down 1.33. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, open interest stood at 296,000 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears adding positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,350 yuan/mt, tested a low of 95,900 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved lower to a low of 94,950 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 95,150 yuan/mt, down 0.45. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, open interest stood at 188,000 lots, a decrease of 2,104 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions overall.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. After copper prices jumped, downstream procurement sentiment pulled back, indicating limited acceptance of current price levels. From the market structure perspective, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some brands continuing to offload cargo, putting pressure on discounts. Downstream buyers mostly maintained a wait-and-see stance, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and buying on dips. It is worth noting that the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper narrowed somewhat from the previous period, indicating that the market trading structure has become more rational, with actual consumption demand becoming the dominant force at the current stage. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, spot prices against the 2604 contract are expected to maintain the current discount level tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

【SMM Copper Flash News】The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 92,129 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 81,380 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 91,959 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 170, and the spread remained in a contango structure, widening from the previous day.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Copper prices declined somewhat during the day, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the heavy concentrated purchases already made last week, actual incremental buying was relatively limited. Inventory side, according to SMM, combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. During the day, supplier quotations were steady at first and then declined, with suppliers actively selling as premiums rebounded, and the sell-off put pressure on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.