【SMM Steel】Japan's Ministry of Finance initiated an anti-dumping investigation on June 1, 2026, covering hot-rolled flat steel from China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The probe, requested by Nippon Steel, JFE Steel, Kobe Steel, and Nakayama Steel, examines dumping from April 2025 to March 2026 and injury over the 2021-26 period. Products include iron, non-alloy, and alloy hot-rolled flat steel (excluding clad, plated, or coated goods), used in autos, appliances, construction, containers, and steel pipes. HS codes: 7208, 7211, 7225, 7226 series.

SMM June 1 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market fell, with SHFE copper edging up, while SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead dipped slightly. SHFE zinc fell 0.84%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel fell 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.35%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.75%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.19%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore down 0.38%, rebar up 0.67%, hot-rolled coil up 0.59%, and stainless steel down 0.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 7.2%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 5.1%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:44, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.56%. LME aluminum rose 0.2%. LME lead rose 0.22%. LME zinc rose 0.08%. LME tin rose 0.51%. LME nickel rose 0.34%. Precious metals, as of 11:44, COMEX gold fell 0.88%, and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.78%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.13%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.97%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.72%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 11.26%, closing at 3,884 points. As of 11:44 on June 1, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,845 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,740 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory saw a significant increase... Macro front China: [The "Regulations of the State Council on Outbound Investment" was published and will take effect on July 1, 2026] It mentioned that investors conducting outbound investment activities shall not export or use goods, technologies, services, and related data prohibited from export by the state, or export or use goods, technologies, services, and related data restricted from export by the state without authorization; shall not transfer goods, technologies, services, and related data prohibited from export by the state to other countries (regions) through means such as cross-border dispatch of technical personnel, organizing personnel to work in other countries (regions), providing cross-border technical guidance, or arranging cross-border training, or transfer goods, technologies, services, and related data restricted from export by the state to other countries (regions) without authorization. [Shanghai Municipal Government General Office Released the Shanghai Service Industry Development 15th Five-Year Plan] The plan mentioned that by 2030, the service industry is expected to achieve notable progress in optimizing its structure, fostering momentum, and improving quality and efficiency, with continuous improvement in digitalization, standardization, integration, and internationalization. The added value of the service industry is expected to reach approximately 6 trillion yuan, basically forming a new high-quality and efficient service industry system led by high-level urban core service functions, anchored by high-end producer services, and supported by high-grade consumer services, building Shanghai's service industry into a "resilient foundation" for economic growth with higher capacity and a "dynamic hub" for global service resource allocation with stronger influence. (Source: Wallstreetcn) [PBOC Net Drained 247 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 11 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. A total of 258 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:44, the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 99.08. According to an article by Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed whisperer," in a speech on Sunday evening local time, former US Fed Chair Powell stated that if any administration found an excuse to remove Fed officials simply over policy disagreements, the Fed would not be able to survive. Powell currently serves as a Fed governor. While speaking broadly about institutions, the rule of law, and related topics, he did not name any president, nor did he express any specific personal grievances. However, when addressing the institutional framework designed to keep monetary policy decisions out of presidential control, his language was extremely precise. Powell emphasized the legal protections designed to prevent the arbitrary removal of Fed officials and specifically noted that the executive branch "plays no role in selecting or supervising the 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents," who vote on interest rate decisions alongside Fed governors. "If any administration found an excuse to remove Fed officials simply over policy disagreements, future administrations would inevitably follow suit," Powell said. He noted that the credibility the Fed had built over decades was a "priceless asset," and he and his colleagues "have a responsibility to defend it." (Source: Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the current US Fed transition pace was relatively smooth, and within the next two years, among the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, only JeromeGovernor Powell may see changes due to his term ending in 2028, while regional Fed presidents face no formal departure pressure before 2028. New Chair Warsh was sworn in on May 22 and his remarks did not release dovish signals. Overall, dovish forces within the US Fed have notably weakened, with neutral and neutral-to-hawkish stances in the majority on policy, though attention is still needed on US economic conditions, geopolitical conflict risks, and other factors. Data: Today's releases include the UK May Nationwide House Price Index MoM, Switzerland April real retail sales YoY, France May manufacturing PMI final, Germany May manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone May manufacturing PMI final, UK May manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM manufacturing PMI, and US April construction spending MoM. In addition, attention is needed on: the opening of NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech. Crude oil: As of 11:44, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 2.26% and Brent up 2%. Oil prices rebounded from six-week lows as the outlook for an Iran war and peace agreement remained unclear. The US and Iran exchanged messages over the weekend seeking to revise a draft agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz, but whether substantive progress was made remains unclear. Previously, optimism that the two sides would reach some form of peace agreement and that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would resume had led to crude oil's first monthly decline this year. "Neither Iran nor the US will concede or compromise on their bottom lines for reaching a deal, some of which have not changed since before the war," said economist Gaoud. These bottom lines include the nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the ballistic missile program, and sanctions. He also noted that oil prices may remain sensitive to local developments and statements from political leaders. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On May 27, China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd. announced the shortlisted candidates for its 2026 energy storage system framework procurement. As one of China’s major state-owned power generation groups among the “Big Five and Small Six,” Huaneng’s latest framework tender totals 4GWh, with the agreement valid through March 31, 2027. The procurement covers energy storage systems required for infrastructure and operational projects across the group’s subsidiaries and regional companies.

SMM News, May 27: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, while SHFE copper edged down. SHFE aluminum rose 0.8%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel rose 1.91%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.52%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.96%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.09%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.19%, rebar fell 0.69%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.44%, and stainless steel rose 1.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.77%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.39%. LME lead rose 0.05%. LME zinc rose 0.4%. LME tin rose 1.24%. LME nickel rose 0.32%. Precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.08%, COMEX silver rose 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.05%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.73%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.77%, closing at 2,949 points. As of 11:38 on May 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Alumina: SMM statistics show that the scale of alumina projects under construction and under planning in Guinea has exceeded... Macro Front China: [NBS: From January to April, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 18.2%; non-ferrous metals sector profits surged 117.8%] NBS data showed that from January to April, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 2.44 trillion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April, the mining sector posted profits of 361.84 billion yuan, up 26.0% YoY; the manufacturing sector posted profits of 1.80 trillion yuan, up 20.4%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector posted profits of 272.01 billion yuan, down 1.9%. From January to April, profitability of major industries was as follows: non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (up 1.2x YoY), computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 1.1x), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (up 73.4%), coal mining and washing (up 21.0%), textile (up 11.2%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (up 8.1%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (turned from loss to profit), general equipment manufacturing (down 0.6%), electricity and heat production and supply (down 2.5%), special equipment manufacturing (down 7.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 11.4%), agricultural and sideline food processing (down 11.8%), automobile manufacturing (down 16.8%), non-metallic minerals products (down 50.7%), and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (down 51.5%). [PBOC Conducts 177.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Reverse Repo Operations with Net Injection of 127.6 Billion Yuan in a Single Day] The PBOC conducted 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 50 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.1. According to Nikkei, Fed's Kashkari stated that the US Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East situation. During the late-April FOMC meeting, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials dissented against the decision to include language in the Fed's statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari said: "I think the next rate adjustment could be an interest rate cut, or it could be a rate hike." He used this to express his differing views. Kashkari said the outcome would depend on inflation trends, which depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon or remain effectively closed due to further damage to infrastructure in the region, the latter of which would exacerbate the global energy shortage. Kashkari said the concern was that long-term inflation expectations of enterprises and households "could become unanchored." He said the FOMC "may well need to respond forcefully," and rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, could be necessary measures. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 88.6%, with an 11.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, while a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. The US economy is likely to continue growing mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand is inevitably subject to disruptions from energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the European and Japanese central banks are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stances of Japanese and European political circles could constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US Treasuries and the US dollar index will find support, while gold prices are expected to break out of their current range as tail risks to inflation dissipate. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, opting to continue observing the impact of the global energy shock on domestic consumption and medium-term inflation. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The RBNZ's latest projections show a rising likelihood of at least two 25bp rate hikes before year-end. In its post-meeting statement, the RBNZ said: "Taken together, the OCR will likely need to be raised sooner and by more than projected in the February Monetary Policy Statement." "The pace of hikes will depend on the relative impact of persistent wage and pricing behavior versus weakening economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures." Following the statement, NZD/USD rose. (Jin10 Data) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo said vigilance is needed regarding the impact of surging oil prices on underlying inflation trends, but did not clearly signal how this factor would influence next month's policy meeting outcome. Ueda said on Wednesday: "Japan's experience shows that oil price shocks are never just oil price shocks; they actually test the entire inflation mechanism." Reviewing the impact of oil crises since the 1970s, he noted: "We are in fact experiencing the fifth oil price shock." "If a temporary shock alters wages, inflation expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, it may evolve into persistent inflation." Ueda did not directly signal the future policy path, but as his remarks reflected concerns over the impact of high oil prices, markets may further strengthen speculation about the prospect of a rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting. Overnight swap market pricing shows traders currently assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25bp rate hike by the BoJ next month. (Jin10 Data) Australia's April core inflation rate remained above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, further reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain its hawkish stance after consecutive rate hikes this year. Data on Wednesday showed the closely watched core inflation gauge—the annual trimmed mean inflation rate excluding volatile items—rose 3.4% YoY, in line with economists' expectations. The RBA targets keeping inflation near the midpoint of its 2%-3% target band. Interest rate swap markets currently price the probability of another rate hike in August at around 50%, down from 64% before the data release. Under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and surging fuel prices driven by the Iran war, the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. The unemployment rate in April rose to a four-and-a-half-year high, while approximately one-third of enterprises reported declining revenue over the past four weeks, and half reported rising operating costs. The market widely expects that after raising rates at all three meetings earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. Sue-Ellen Luke, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: "Automotive fuel prices currently remain 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs." (Jin10 Data) Data: Today will see the release of the RBNZ interest rate decision as of May 27, Switzerland's May ZEW Investor Confidence Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, and the US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breman holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 2.03% and Brent down 1.75%. Oil prices fell in Asian early trading as traders weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal. Front-month Brent crude declined. Despite a resurgence in hostilities, hopes remain for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran signaled that the attacks would not derail negotiations, while US Secretary of State Rubio said it would take a few days to finalise a potential deal. Uncertainty remains high. Kieran Tomkins of Capital Economics noted that while crude oil options data suggest investors expect prices to pull back over the next three months, their conviction is unusually low. He said options indicate investors see a swift resumption of supply through the strait as the most likely outcome, but their implied expectations suggest a 37% probability that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel in three months. (Zhitong Finance) On the evening of May 26 local time, the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that over the past 24 hours, 25 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission, under the coordination and security guarantee of the IRGC Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy stated that it is exercising "effective and authoritative" control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any act of aggression will be met with a severe response. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded Contract Hovered at Highs, Spot Market Trading Remained Sluggish]

SMM News, May 25: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit the daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36% to 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt. The average price fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front Domestic: [Huawei Announces Semiconductor Tao's Law] On May 25, Huawei officially announced a new law in the semiconductor field. "Tao's Law" proposes replacing "geometric scaling" with "temporal scaling," achieving new breakthroughs in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. This marks the first time China has proposed a new principle guiding industrial development in the global semiconductor field. By 2031, high-end chip transistor density based on this law is expected to reach the equivalent level of the 1.4nm process node. (People's Daily) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Result in Net Injection of 257 billion yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, chief economic adviser to US President Trump, said he believes that the eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. Although the surge in US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that the accelerating inflation is mainly driven by energy prices. "If you look at the last few data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved at all," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, due to declining energy prices, you may actually see negative inflation." (Jin10 Data) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 2.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July was 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike was 0.3%. (Jin10 Data) On data: Today, data including China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity in April and its year-on-year rate will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday); CME's precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and US stock and US Treasury futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with both southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korean stock markets will also be closed for one day on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25; trading of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 5.92% and Brent down 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 33 vessels — including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels — passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran had reached agreement on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran had developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" on permanently ending hostilities with Iran, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US representatives not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms — including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW. This week, Haozheng Hydrogen Energy successfully completed all tests on an alkaline hydrogen production electrolyzer, with all performance indicators meeting standards, and it was officially shipped to the client's project site. Eve Hydrogen Energy reached an important delivery period, as its 100 Nm³/h centralized hydrogen production system successfully passed all factory detection tests and was officially dispatched to Shandong. Project-related developments: Guangdong Qingneng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The fuel cell and electrolysis hydrogen production system project completed filing. The project is located at Building D3, No. 1 Xiangda Road, Dancao Logistics Center, Dancao Town, Nanhai District, Foshan City, with a total investment of 200 million yuan, to be constructed by Guangdong Qingneng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. as the construction entity. On one hand, the project advances the expansion of fuel cell-related businesses at the headquarters base, deploying multiple production lines for new-type compression-molded graphite plates, supporting stacks, and air-cooled fuel cells. On the other hand, it simultaneously builds AEM electrolysis hydrogen production lines, developing core material capacity for membrane electrode assemblies, bipolar plates, and other components. State Administration for Market Regulation: A re-tender announcement was issued for the research project on safety-critical standards for hydrogen refueling station infrastructure, with a project budget and maximum price cap both set at 1.1 million yuan (China Government Procurement Network). This procurement will focus on developing two national standards: liquid hydrogen vehicle refueling protocols and rubber O-rings for high-pressure hydrogen equipment, and plans to produce draft versions for public comment or approval (China Government Procurement Network). The project performance period runs until December 31, 2026, and consortium bids are not accepted (China Government Procurement Network). This initiative will fill the gaps in relevant standards in China, strengthen the intrinsic safety assurance of hydrogen refueling stations, and facilitate the standardized and orderly development of the hydrogen energy industry. China Risun Group Limited: China's first domestically developed 5 mt/day hydrogen expansion refrigeration hydrogen liquefaction project was successfully completed and put into operation at Risun Group's Dingzhou Park. The equipment used in this project is China's first large-scale liquefaction equipment adopting the hydrogen Claude cycle process with 100% localisation of core components. It successfully overcame multiple key industry technologies, with overall performance benchmarked against international first-class standards. The unit energy consumption of the core liquefaction system was as low as 11.84 kWh/kg, representing a reduction of over 40% compared to traditional processes, effectively lowering liquid hydrogen production costs and supporting the autonomous development of China's hydrogen energy industry. Heilongjiang Coal Chemical Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. : Zhongmei Longhua held discussions with the government of Ar Horqin Banner, Chifeng City. Both parties focused on existing new energy cooperation projects, advancing computing power industry deployment and coordinating the construction of green energy transmission corridors. Previously, the two parties had signed a 12.8 billion yuan agreement for a 2GW new energy base and an annual 500,000 mt biomass pellet project, covering 1.8GW wind power and 0.2GW PV. During this round of discussions, they finalised an additional computing power synergy project, planning to build a thousand-P-level intelligent computing power centre leveraging a green electricity direct supply model to revitalise clean energy resources. In addition, the two parties will also fully align with the Chifeng-to-Jinzhou hydrogen-ammonia-methanol transmission pipeline, deploying green hydrogen, green ammonia, and green methanol capacity to build an integrated green energy industry chain encompassing green electricity production, energy conversion, and cross-provincial transmission. Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd. : The results of SPIC's 87th batch of centralised tenders for 2025 were announced. Sungrow Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for the alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment for the Jidian Co., Ltd. Lishu Wind and Solar Power Green Hydrogen Production Coupled with Biomass Green Methanol Project (Section II). Located in Siping, Jilin, the project has a hydrogen production capacity of 30,000 Nm³/h and plans to commence construction in August 2025, with a total construction period of 22 months, implemented in two sections. Upon completion, the project will promote the commercialisation of green hydrogen coupled with biomass for green methanol production, facilitating the integrated development of new energy and chemical industries. China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical Co., Ltd.: The 3,000 Nm³/h electrolysis hydrogen production unit for China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical's 100,000 mt "Liquid Sunshine" project, manufactured by China First Heavy Industries Nuclear Power and Petrochemical, was successfully shipped from the Dalian Mianhua Island nuclear power equipment manufacturing base, advancing the "Liquid Sunshine" project and empowering the integrated development of hydrogen energy and new energy. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: The completion ceremony of the green electricity hydrogen production and natural gas hydrogen blending comprehensive testing platform was held at Guofu Hydrogen Energy's Zhangjiagang base. Jointly developed by Guofu Hydrogen Energy and Towngas Group, the platform conducts green electricity hydrogen production utilising local 52,000 m² rooftop distributed PV and alkaline electrolysers. Employing a follow-up flow gas mixing process, it can achieve precise natural gas hydrogen blending at ratios from 0% to 30%, with a maximum hydrogen blending volume of 100 standard m³ per hour. The platform integrates four modules — hydrogen production, gas mixing, combustion, and data acquisition — focusing on hydrogen blending condition verification, energy efficiency assessment, and cost estimation research. With significant environmental protection benefits, it can reduce CO₂ emissions by 1,144 mt in the first year. The project is expected to consume 2.16 million kWh of green electricity over its full lifecycle, facilitating clean energy integration and low-carbon development. SPIC: The announcement of candidate winners for the 23rd batch of centralised tenders for 2026 — the EPC general contracting for the SPIC Green Energy Da'an Gaseous Hydrogen Storage Technical Renovation Project — was released. According to the announcement, the first candidate winner was China Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. with a bid price of 55.2 million yuan, and the second candidate winner was China Petroleum and Natural Gas First Construction Co., Ltd. with a bid price of 71.39 million yuan. The project is located in the Jilin Western (Da'an) Clean Energy Chemical Industry Park in Liangjiazi Town, Da'an City, Baicheng City, Jilin Province. It involves the construction of 6 units of 1850m³ spherical tanks and 1 unit of 8000Nm³/h compressor, with a total hydrogen storage capacity of 177,600Nm³ and an effective hydrogen storage capacity of 144,300Nm³. The tender scope covers the design, supply, construction, commissioning, and all work within the warranty period for the gaseous hydrogen storage complete equipment and auxiliary facilities. Upon completion, it will enhance local green hydrogen storage and supply capability, facilitating the large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry. Hainan Shenneng Materials Co., Ltd. : The announcement of successful bid candidates for the commissioning, trial operation, and demonstration operation services of the Hainan New Energy Offshore Wind Power Hydrogen Production Comprehensive Utilization Key Technology R&D and Engineering Demonstration Project was released. The bid inviter is Hainan Shenneng Materials Co., Ltd. The announcement shows that the first successful bid candidate is Sinochem Second Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 5.83 million yuan; the second successful bid candidate is China Petrochemical Engineering Construction Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 5.875 million yuan. The project aims to implement the construction requirements of Hainan's clean energy priority development demonstration zone, focusing on offshore wind power hydrogen production and comprehensive utilization technology research. It will achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as floating platform hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation, and hydrogen-to-ammonia/methanol, develop core equipment and an offshore wind power hydrogen production comprehensive utilization floating platform, providing technical and engineering support for Hainan's clean energy island construction and large-scale offshore hydrogen production. Policy Review 1. Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration on Matters Related to the Orderly Promotion of Multi-user Green Electricity Direct Connection Development. The document states that support is given to new energy power generation projects that have not yet commenced power grid connection engineering construction, as well as new energy power generation projects that cannot be connected to grid due to reasons such as new energy consumption constraints, to carry out multi-user green electricity direct connection after completing the corresponding change procedures. Distributed PV may participate in multi-user green electricity direct connection through centralized current collection. Priority support is given to computing facilities, green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol and other emerging industries and future industries to carry out green electricity direct connection. Projects shall meet national industrial policy requirements, and enterprises are strictly prohibited from conducting illegal activities through green electricity direct connection. 2. Notice of the Hubei Provincial Department of Transportation on Implementing Toll Subsidy Policies for Hydrogen Energy Vehicles Traveling on Hubei Provincial Expressways. The document states that hydrogen energy vehicles (with hydrogen fuel cell as the sole power source) that legally transport cargo, are equipped with and normally use ETC, and travel on expressways within Hubei Province (with entry and exit records and inter-station travel routes all within Hubei Province) shall be exempted from expressway tolls. The tolls exempted by relevant expressway operation and management entities shall be fully subsidized by provincial fiscal funds. 3. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Organizing and Carrying Out Industrial Energy Conservation Supervision Work in 2026." It mentioned that energy efficiency supervision will be conducted in key industry sectors. In accordance with mandatory energy consumption quota standards for relevant industries, as well as requirements such as energy efficiency benchmark and baseline levels, energy conservation supervision will be carried out on enterprises in industries including steel, synthetic ammonia, oil refining, ethylene, caustic soda, soda ash, and methanol, with the principle of achieving full coverage of energy conservation supervision for enterprises in the above industries within the region during 2026–2027 (full coverage of calcium carbide-based PVC producers shall be achieved in 2026). Energy efficiency supervision of key industry chains will also be conducted. In accordance with mandatory energy consumption quota standards for relevant industries, mandatory energy efficiency standards for products and equipment, and other requirements, focusing on key industry chains such as PV modules, wind turbines, EV and ESS batteries, and water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, special energy conservation supervision will be carried out on key enterprises in segments including raw materials, production and manufacturing, and terminal assembly, with a focus on verifying enterprise energy consumption in production processes and energy efficiency of major products. Enterprise Updates Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. : China's first inland 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container ship "Dongfang Hydrogen Port" set sail from Zhapu Port Area of Jiaxing Port and was officially put into operation. It is reported that Guohong Hydrogen Energy provided two sets of independently developed Honghan C240 marine hydrogen fuel cell systems. This is currently the highest-power hydrogen fuel cell system in China and the first to be applied to ships (single-unit rated power of 240 kW). Yuchai Xinlan (Jiangsu) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Yuchai Hydrogen Energy General Manager Lu Guoquan and Zhongyuan Electric Laboratory Deputy Director Zhang Xueshen signed a strategic cooperation agreement on behalf of their respective parties. According to the agreement, both parties will leverage their respective technological advantages and resources to establish a long-term, stable, and in-depth strategic partnership, focusing on comprehensive cooperation in four core areas: water electrolysis for hydrogen production, hydrogen fuel internal combustion engines, green energy management, and hydrogen energy demonstration projects. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: Joining hands with Three Gorges Zhongyi, Jiaosheng New Energy, and other shipping industry chain partners, the company held the "Zero-Carbon Yangtze, Green Shipping" industrial ecosystem strategy launch conference. At the conference, Guofu Hydrogen Energy officially released its "River-Sea Strategy Plan" and held the rollout ceremony of its first 80-cubic-meter marine LNG storage tank, marking its official entry from the land-based hydrogen energy equipment sector into the green shipping track. According to the plan, Guofu Hydrogen Energy will promote the improvement of the shipping ecosystem closed loop, attract industry partners to co-build the ecosystem, and plans to complete the leap from product finalization and demonstration applications to ecosystem formation within three years, facilitating the zero-carbon transformation of Yangtze River shipping. Haida Qingneng Ship (Dalian) Co., Ltd. : China's first inland waterway 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container ship, the "Dongfang Hydrogen Port," successfully set sail from Jiaxing Port and was put into operation on a designated route, achieving a new breakthrough in the application of hydrogen fuel cell vessels on inland waterways. Designed by Haida Qingneng Ship with a full set of hydrogen power systems, the vessel has a cargo capacity of approximately 1,450 mt and a driving range of 380 kilometers. It is equipped with a large power hydrogen fuel cell system, achieving zero carbon emissions throughout the entire voyage, and has also completed the integrated integration of large-capacity hydrogen storage and control systems. The core technologies were jointly developed by the enterprise and Dalian Maritime University. This commissioning also fully demonstrated that hydrogen-powered vessel propulsion systems are mature and reliable, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of inland waterway shipping. PetroChina Company Limited Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute : PetroChina's first 2,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysis water-to-hydrogen system successfully completed its initial test run, with all parameters meeting design requirements. The overall technical level ranks among the industry's best, and the hydrogen produced has a purity as high as 99.9995%. The system was led by PetroChina Shenzhen Institute and jointly developed by multiple enterprises, integrating large-capacity electrolyzers with high-efficiency separation and purification equipment. Actual testing showed that the high-grade hydrogen can meet the usage requirements of multiple industries. The system will subsequently be connected to the Dushanzi Petrochemical hydrogen pipeline network for production application, helping the petrochemical industry accelerate its green and low-carbon transformation. China Huadian Engineering Corporation Limited : Its top ten new technologies and new products of 2026 were unveiled in Beijing, accelerating the expansion of its technological achievement portfolio and boosting the development of new quality productive forces. Among them, the independently developed "Hua'an" U1000 skid-mounted green ammonia synthesis unit was officially launched, overcoming key technologies for distributed green ammonia production. The unit focuses on compact skid-mounted and modular design, addressing the pain points of traditional ammonia synthesis units such as high investment, long construction cycles, and difficulty in adapting to wind and solar power fluctuations. It features four major advantages: low temperature and low pressure, flexible adaptation, intelligent integration, and rapid deployment, filling the technological gap in small-scale green ammonia equipment in China. It integrates multiple innovations: equipped with a low-temperature and low-pressure catalyst jointly developed with the Institute of Process Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, adopting a proprietary patented dual-tower reactor, and equipped with self-developed "source-grid-hydrogen-ammonia" full-chain flexible control technology, enabling wide-load regulation and adaptation to wind and solar power fluctuations. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint / Technical Specifications 1 The team led by Academician Chen Zhongwei and Associate Researcher Zhang Meng from the National Key Laboratory of Catalysis for Energy Conversion at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics developed a high specific power cathode-closed air-cooled stack technology, which passed the scientific and technological achievement evaluation by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively resolves the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, addressing technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, membrane drying and flooding, and high-power thermal management. 2 Two group standards on hydrogen production by water electrolysis were officially released and implemented, namely the "Safety Technical Specification for Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis" and the "Calculation Method for Economic Operation Indicators of Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis." 3 Petronor collaborated with H2SITE to advance membrane technology for hydrogen production, improving high-purity hydrogen supply and low-carbon efficiency in refining. 4 Dalian University of Technology designed an electron pump catalyst with an asymmetric photo-responsive structure that maintains the asymmetry of electron distribution. 5 A research team from the School of Electrical Engineering and the National Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation at Xi'an Jiaotong University successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis.

[SMM Steel] Ukraine’s containerized ferrous metal shipments by rail reached 10,400 TEU in Q1 2026, down only 3% YoY, while exports accounted for 77% of total volumes. The share of western border crossings surged to 96% from 66% a year earlier, as drone attacks on Danube ports sharply disrupted southern export routes. Containerized steel exports via Danube ports fell 93% YoY to just 116 TEU in Q1. Mostyska II on the Poland border became the key logistics hub, handling 45% of total ferrous metal container traffic. Ferrous metals accounted for 15% of Ukrainian Railways’ total container shipments in Q1, second only to agricultural cargo.

Freight. From January to April, national railways cumulatively completed freight volume of 1.727 billion mt, up 2.8% YoY; freight turnover reached 1,227.427 billion mt-km, up 5.4% YoY. In April, freight volume reached 446 million mt, up 4.3% YoY; freight turnover reached 320.623 billion mt-km, up 6.3% YoY. By commodity category, from January to April, national railways cumulatively transported coal (920 million mt), containers (349 million mt), and fertilizers & pesticides (21.15 million mt), up 3.4%, 9.1%, and 14.6% YoY respectively, with key commodity transportation effectively guaranteed. Fixed asset investment. From January to April, national railway fixed asset investment totaled 200.8 billion yuan, up 3.2% YoY, with railway construction advancing with high quality and efficiency.

SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading: