SMM July 27 News: Metal Market: At the midday break, domestic base metals were mixed. SHFE copper rose 0.31%, while SHFE aluminum edged lower. SHFE lead fell 1.11%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin rose 1.86%. SHFE nickel fell 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.13%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.19%. Lithium carbonate’s most-traded contract rose 0.86%. Silicon metal’s most-traded contract rose 0.24%. Polysilicon’s most-traded futures contract rose 0.15%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.33%, and HRC rose 0.55%. Stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.62%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.87%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.49%, while LME aluminum fell 0.27%. LME tin and LME zinc each rose within 0.5%. LME lead edged lower. LME nickel fell 0.32%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.42% and COMEX silver rose 1.1%. In the domestic market: SHFE gold rose 0.87%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. In addition, at the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.31%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.22%. At the midday break, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 3.02% to 2,750 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:40, July 27: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, cooling geopolitical tensions temporarily; oil prices tumbled, and inflation and rate-hike expectations eased, while precious metals rebounded. The spot market sustained parity deals, with the weak supply-demand pattern persisting. …… 》Click for details Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in 1H; Electronics-Related Sectors Posted Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, amid steady manufacturing growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points from Q1. Accelerating revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By major sector, mining and manufacturing profits grew 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 and 1.0 percentage points from Q1; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of the raw material manufacturing sector above designated size rose 71.7% YoY, boosting overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 8.8 percentage points. From an industry perspective, driven by improving demand for non-ferrous metal products such as copper and aluminum, profits of the non-ferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, boosting overall profit growth by 4.7 percentage points; driven by higher prices of products in the petroleum industry chain, the petroleum processing sector swung from losses to a profit YoY, and profits of the chemical sector rose 67.8%. The PBOC conducted 325.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 398.5 billion yuan of reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of MLF matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.26 to 101.22. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. The probability of unchanged rates through September is 19.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 25.2%. Data: Today will see the release of data including Germany's July IFO Business Climate Index, the UK's July CBI Distributive Trades Survey balance, the US June durable goods orders MoM, and the US July Dallas Fed New Orders Index. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 4.97% and Brent down 3.93%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions eased slightly, and oil prices fell sharply at the open on Monday as traders assessed Middle East supply risks. With the US-Iran conflict spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, Brent crude has surged about 30% this month, briefly breaking above $100 per barrel last week. The conflict, now nearing the end of its fifth month, has heightened concerns about a global inflation shock as the global fuel market has lost idle capacity while the war drives up prices, and refined product prices have jumped. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 24 News: Metal Market: As of midday, domestic base metals fell broadly. SHFE copper fell 1.21%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both fell within 0.5%. SHFE lead fell 0.82%. SHFE tin fell 1.59%. SHFE nickel rose 0.2%. Additionally, casting aluminum most-traded futures fell 0.58%, alumina most-traded rose 0.37%. Lithium carbonate most-traded fell 0.74%. Silicon metal most-traded edged down. Polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.67%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.8%, rebar fell 0.68%, HRC fell 0.3%. Stainless steel fell 0.91%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract was flat at 1,282 yuan/mt, coke most-traded contract edged up 0.05%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper rose 0.43%, LME aluminum, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell within 0.5%. LME lead was flat at $1,887/mt. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 0.44%, COMEX silver fell 0.88%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.65%; SHFE silver most-traded fell 4.82%. Additionally, as of midday, platinum most-traded futures fell 4.94%, palladium most-traded futures fell 5.68%. As of midday, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 1.65% to 2,807.5 points. As of 11:40 on July 24, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 190 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,085 yuan/mt, down 1,215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,000 yuan/mt, down 1,210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic side: [State Grid's fixed-asset investment in H1 up 12.6% YoY] Today, we learned from State Grid Corporation of China that in H1, State Grid completed fixed-asset investment of over 310 billion yuan, up 12.6% YoY. Among them, construction of 15 ultra-high-voltage (UHV) projects and 37 pumped-storage power stations is accelerating. Meanwhile, investment in new energy grid connection projects continues to increase. As of end-June, the new energy grid-connected installed capacity in State Grid's operating area reached 1.55 billion kW. (CCTV) [PBOC net withdrawal of 361.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.02 to 101.42. As the threat of escalating war in Iran drove up oil prices, US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year, and markets expected the Fed could raise rates as soon as next week. The two-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose about 4 basis points on Thursday to around 4.34%, its highest since early 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a year-to-date high, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.19%, just below its highest level since 2007. As Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked a commercial vessel for the first time in months, Brent crude oil has been slowly rebounding toward $100 per barrel. This rise continues to pressure the US Treasury market and has led traders to increasingly believe that the Fed under Warsh will raise rates soon this year. (Jinshi Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 34.7%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 17.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 57%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp hike is 25.4%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US fell sharply last week, indicating that the labour market remains stable and that Fed officials need to continue focusing on curbing inflation. The US Labor Department said on Thursday that initial claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, compared with expectations of 212,000. Thursday's report was the latest signal of sustained stability in the labour market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in June, a one-year low, but the decline was more due to a shrinking labour force rather than job growth. The US labour market is exhibiting an unusual balance: limited labour supply, slow job creation, and limited layoffs have kept the unemployment rate at historically low levels. This situation has led a growing number of Fed policymakers to focus more on inflation, which remains well above the 2% target, rather than express greater concern about the strong labour market. (Jinshi Data APP) Data wise: Today’s data releases include Germany's August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m, France July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Germany July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Services PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Services PMI, and US June New Home Sales Annualized Total. Also worth watching: the AMD Advancing AI conference was held in San Francisco on July 22-23; Intel’s Q2 earnings were released after the US stock market close on July 23. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI up 0.01% and Brent down 0.07%. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict continued to intensify. The Houthis announced this week that they had attacked a Saudi oil tanker, formally turning the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea into a new frontline of conflict, putting global oil supply into a “dual chokepoint” predicament. Market analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remained obstructed and a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait became reality, oil prices risked further surging to $120 or even higher. Rapidan Energy Group President and former White House official Bob McNally said, “The scale of the second round of military conflict will exceed the first, posing enormous risks to shipping and energy infrastructure.” (Wallstreetcn) ANZ: It maintained its forecast of $92/barrel for Brent crude at end-Q3 2026, reflecting an uneven rebound in Persian Gulf oil flows. If regional supply disruptions intensify and market buffers weaken, Brent crude prices could rise to $120/barrel. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$154.76/dmt, down $8.61/dmt from the previous reading of -$146.15/dmt. The 20% grade domestic trade ore payable indicator came in at 98%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period. This week, transaction volumes in the copper concentrates spot market decreased from last week, with some mines conducting tenders. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore for September shipment to a smelter at an index minus $20/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore for Q4 shipment to a smelter at an index minus $20/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold approximately 2,000 mt of clean ore in containers for August-September shipment to a smelter at an index minus $18-19/dmt, with a container premium in single digits, QP: M+1/M+5. In terms of mine tenders, regarding the previously offered Red Chris by Newnomont, market rumors suggest that the transaction price for 20,000 mt for trader-side shipments in September 2026 and Q4 was around -$225/dmt, while the 2027 20,000 mt transaction price was in the range of -$220/dmt to -$200/dmt. For a large mine's tender of South American clean ore, the trader-side transaction price was -$230/dmt for 10,000 mt, QP: M+1/M+4, with September shipment; the smelter-side transaction price was -$158/dmt for 10,000 mt, QP: M+1/M+4, with September shipment. For the OT mine tender, trader-side prices were -$230/dmt for September-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+4 (buyer's option), and -$225/dmt for November-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+4 (buyer's option); smelter-side prices were -$160/dmt for September-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+3 (buyer's option). In addition, according to market sources, KAZ is conducting tenders for Aktogay and Bozshakol copper concentrates, with results yet to be announced. Overall, spot transactions this week were still dominated by the index-minus model, but the pace of further widening of discounts slowed down compared with earlier. The downward momentum in trader-side tender prices also slowed noticeably; however, smelter-side transaction prices continued to decline, with procurement conditions worsening and raw material procurement pressure intensifying. On July 23, Freeport-McMoRan disclosed during its Q2 earnings call that the resumption of production at the underground Block Cave project at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is progressing as expected. Currently, the ramp-up of production blocks 2 and 3 is advancing in accordance with the plan set in April. Previously, affected by a mud rush incident at the underground mine in September 2025, Grasberg partially suspended production. The company subsequently initiated cleaning, repair, and phased production resumption work. According to Freeport, Grasberg Block Cave completed repairs in Q1 2026, began production ramp-up in March, and reached planned operating levels in Q2. Currently, the company expects that Grasberg’s capacity will recover to about 65% in H2 2026, further increase to about 80% by mid-2027, and it plans to approach full operation by the end of 2027. Recently, heavy rainfall and high-altitude snowfall hit central Chile and the Atacama region, prompting multiple copper mines to initiate winter emergency measures. Antofagasta Minerals’ Los Pelambres temporarily restricted access to the mine site and proactively reduced non-critical operations; no full suspension has been reported so far. Codelco’s Andina suspended surface operations, while El Teniente temporarily halted open-pit ore transport due to snow accumulation on slopes. Among these, Caserones was the most significantly affected. Lundin Mining stated that the mine had been shut down since July 18 due to heavy snow, limited road access, and an on-site power outage, and was currently relying on backup generators to maintain critical activities, with production expected to resume after power restoration and improved access conditions. As of July 24, the company had not yet issued a resumption notice, but Lundin Mining maintained its full-year production guidance. Overall, this disruption was mainly concentrated in central Chile and some high-altitude mining areas, while the major copper mines in the far north largely maintained operations, and no widespread nationwide shutdowns had occurred. On July 24, SMM copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports stood at 661,500 mt in physical content, up 13,300 mt in physical content from July 17. The main increases came from Yantai Port and Qingdao Port, up 32,100 mt and 20,000 mt WoW, respectively; the main decreases were from Qinzhou Port and Huludao Port, down 18,000 mt and 7,000 mt WoW, respectively.

In H1 this year, new special bonds worth 2.07 trillion yuan were issued, with the issuance progress at about 47%. The funds were mainly used for key areas such as municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transport infrastructure, urban renewal, and social programs, effectively meeting the funding needs of major projects in key areas. Special bonds used as project capital exceeded 170 billion yuan, better leveraging the role of government investment to produce a multiplier effect.

SMM, July 22 – In the metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.34%, SHFE aluminum added 0.72%, SHFE zinc advanced 0.78%, SHFE lead fell 0.85%, SHFE tin climbed 1.11%, and SHFE nickel jumped 1.36%. Furthermore, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.59%, the most-traded alumina contract settled on par with 2,723 yuan/mt. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.5%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.42%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.59%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 1%, rebar edged lower, and HRC was flat at 3,284 yuan/mt. Stainless steel rose 0.61%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract gained 1.56%, and the most-traded coke contract advanced 0.66%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45 AM, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.3%, LME aluminum edged up, and LME lead, LME zinc, and LME tin all posted gains within 0.2%. LME nickel rose 0.52%. In precious metals, as of 11:45 AM, COMEX gold rose 1.53% and COMEX silver gained 1.64%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold rose 2.8%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract surged 4.79%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 4.2%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 5.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping contract on the European route fell 0.52% to 2,785 points. As of 11:45 AM on July 22, some futures midday market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations and technical corrections drove a silver price rebound, which may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Spot market demand was sluggish, with transactions near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persists... Macro Front China: [GAC: Accelerate Implementation of 57 Port Facility Renovation Projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan] This morning (July 22), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, accelerating customs modernization, and serving the building of a trade power. Ports are the gateway to opening-up. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the customs will accelerate the implementation of major projects and key border port projects under the national 15th Five-Year Plan, simultaneously carry out 57 port facility renovation projects under the plan, and speed up the construction of railway ports such as Turugart and Ganqimaodu. This will help further optimize the layout of port opening. (CCTV News) [Beijing Rolls Out "Ten Go-Global Measures" to Reduce Burden and Empower Digital Economy Enterprises Going Global] On July 21, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology held a press conference on the H1 2026 economic performance of Beijing's industrial and information software industry. It was introduced at the meeting that at the end of last year, Beijing issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Construction of the Beijing Digital Economy Enterprise Go-Global Innovation Service Base (2026–2028)", setting out the goals and tasks for Beijing enterprises going global over the next three years. Drawing on the operational practices of the Beijing Go-Global Base and the core needs of nearly a hundred digital economy enterprises, Beijing recently issued the "Several Measures to Accelerate the Promotion of Digital Economy Enterprises Going Global" (referred to as the "Ten Go-Global Measures"), complementarily, providing ten financial and resource support measures to comprehensively reduce burdens and empower enterprises’ international development. The policy mainly focuses on the following three aspects: first, broadening overseas connection channels to overcome market expansion challenges; second, improving full-process supporting services to reduce cross-border compliance costs; third, fostering an international digital ecosystem to build a capital go-global brand. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou: plans to steadily and orderly advance the completed home sales system and promote the reform of real estate development financing methods] During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Guangzhou plans to actively and prudently plan pilot projects for the completed home sales system, selecting suitable land parcels for pilot implementation at an appropriate time. It will strengthen financial service support, encourage commercial banks to increase development loan quotas for completed home sales projects and offer preferential interest rates. For completed home sales land parcels, support such as installment payment of land premiums and public resource allocation will be provided. For projects that continue to use the presale system, supervision of presale funds for commodity housing will be standardized to regulate fund usage. At the same time, financial coordination will be strengthened to advance the reform of real estate development financing methods, driving a shift in real estate development enterprise financing from reliance on the creditworthiness of the entity to meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects. For each project, one bank or a banking syndicate will be designated as the lead bank. Funds from project development, construction, and sales will be deposited with the lead bank, which will ensure that the project company’s reasonable financing needs are met, forming a virtuous cycle mechanism where the lead bank and the project company share interests and risks. Closed management requirements for real estate project funds will be implemented. Before project delivery, it is strictly prohibited for investors to illegally withdraw or divert the project company’s sales and financing funds, and capital withdrawal or early dividend distribution is strictly prohibited. The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Guangzhou Housing Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)." It will optimize the supply scale and pace of commercial residential land to promote market supply-demand balance. High-quality urban design and "good housing" construction requirements will be incorporated into land transfer conditions to enhance residential building quality. Real estate development enterprises are encouraged to shift from "scale-oriented" to "quality-oriented" approaches, continuously optimize standards, and build more livable high-quality housing. Support for housing will be steadily advanced for newly introduced talent, newly employed university graduates, newly married or first-time childbearing families, families with multiple children, and families supporting elderly members, so as to reduce the burden of purchasing a first home. Increase policy support for "selling old and buying new" homes, and implement relevant tax incentives. Standardize real estate brokerage services, and guide all types of real estate agencies to operate in accordance with the law, compete fairly, and clearly mark prices. Strengthen oversight of existing-home transactions, and establish and improve regulatory systems for transaction funds for existing homes. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 350.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 76 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 426.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, a net withdrawal of 350.5 billion yuan was realized on the day. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.14. Markets await next week's Fed meeting for clues on the interest rate outlook and are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East conflict. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, with a 25.1% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. For September, the probability of holding rates steady is 28.9%, while the odds of a cumulative 25-bp hike are 55.7% and a 50-bp hike are 15.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Furthermore, according to Politico, House Republicans on Tuesday passed a procedural vote 241–211, clearing the way for a short-term government funding bill and the "budget reconciliation 3.0" package. The stopgap funding measure aims to keep the federal government operating through December, while the budget framework provides the basis for a $95 billion partisan policy package. House Republican leadership hopes to pass the temporary funding bill later Tuesday. The House is then expected to vote on the budget resolution on Wednesday. Republicans intend to use this budget framework to begin drafting and passing a third conservative policy bill this Congress without any Democratic support. Other Currencies: Driven by a weak yen and surging oil prices, Japan's import value was up 25.4% YoY in June to a record 11.3 trillion yen (approx. $69.25 billion). This gain exceeded the market's previous expectation of a 21% rise and marked the fastest pace since November 2022, resulting in a trade deficit of 406.9 billion yen (approx. $2.49 billion) in June, far above the forecast of 120 billion yen. Although crude oil imports fell 13.7% YoY in volume terms, their value soared 59.3%, with the yen-denominated unit price also hitting a record high, underscoring that current inflationary pressures are largely driven by exchange-rate factors rather than demand growth. This means that compared to possible short-term changes in oil demand, the yen's appreciation plays a more significant role in easing import cost pressure. On the export side, the resilience brought by AI-related data center demand provides the Bank of Japan with actual economic growth support that can offset inflation risks. This combination of factors suggests that the Bank of Japan is more likely to adopt a cautious, gradual rate hike path rather than a sudden sharp tightening. Currently, the market expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week, while still maintaining a hawkish policy bias. (Jin10 Data APP) The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that a latest survey result shows inflation remains the top economic concern for Australians, while a "fundamental gap" still exists in the public's understanding of how monetary policy works. The survey is part of the RBA's efforts to enhance transparency and respond to the 2023 independent review recommendations. Since early last year, the bank has conducted three rounds of surveys, collecting opinions from approximately 9,000 Australians, and uses the results to improve communication with the public. The survey results showed: "Public trust in the RBA is comparable to other Australian and international institutions and has remained stable since early 2025," although trust levels vary across different groups. "Those with higher trust levels tend to have lower inflation expectations, underscoring the importance of trust itself and also its key role in the transmission of monetary policy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of the UK June CPI MoM, UK June Retail Price Index MoM, and other data. Crude oil: As of 11:45, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI crude up 1.03% and Brent crude up 1.15%. Trump downplayed the possibility of immediate negotiations with Iran, and heightened US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher. The rise in oil prices directly exacerbated inflation concerns. (Wall Street Insights) Data: Last week, US crude oil inventories increased. API crude oil inventories for the week ending July 17: +2.603 million barrels, vs. expected -500,000 barrels and prior -564,000 barrels. API gasoline inventories for the week ending July 17: -1.379 million barrels, vs. expected -1.81 million barrels and prior -1.664 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2026, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, up 10.43% MoM and up 15.11% YoY. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY.

SMM July 17 News: Metals Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper slipped 0.44%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.37%. SHFE lead jumped 2.02%, SHFE zinc edged down 0.26%. SHFE tin dropped 0.78%. SHFE nickel slid 1.14%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.54%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.22%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 1.81%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged down 0.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract dropped 2.12%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.73%, rebar and HRC both rose within 0.4%. Stainless steel added 0.78%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.32%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 0.13%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:40 a.m., LME metals mostly fell. LME copper slipped 0.37%, LME aluminum edged higher, and LME lead rose 0.35%. LME zinc fell 0.4%, LME tin dropped 0.72%. LME nickel slid 1.64%. Precious metals: As of 11:40 a.m., COMEX gold gained 0.3%, and COMEX silver lost 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.03%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 3.83%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 3.87%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures contract rose 2.36% to 2,628 points. As of 11:40 a.m. on July 17, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Lead: This week, Pb50 domestic TC (weekly) remained flat at 150 yuan/mt in metal content, and Pb60 import TC (weekly) stayed flat at -$170/dmt. TCs were largely stable during the week... Macro Front China: [SAFE: Will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and expectations guidance when necessary to maintain stable operation of the foreign exchange market] Li Bin, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the SAFE always adheres to combining facilitation with risk prevention, resolutely safeguards the security baseline under open conditions, continuously improves the "macro-prudential plus micro-supervision" two-in-one management framework, and will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and expectations guidance when necessary to maintain stable operation of the foreign exchange market and prevent systemic risks. [PBOC's reverse repo operations resulted in a net injection of 430.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, a net injection of 430.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 100.78. Federal Reserve’s Logan said the US Fed should raise interest rates to tackle elevated inflation — a remark hinting she may be prepared to oppose a decision to hold rates steady later this month. Logan said the June inflation data released on Tuesday showed price increases were slowing, but not enough to convince her that inflation has returned to the Fed’s 2% target path. “The June CPI data do indicate that inflation is likely to return to target, and the outlook is more optimistic,” Logan said, “but this path remains fragile. I currently believe that moderately raising rates would help better balance the outlook and risks.” Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: If the demand effects from AI infrastructure construction and consumption materialize before the productivity gains from AI, then AI could put upward pressure on inflation. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike is 11.2%. For September, the probabilities are: unchanged 48.8%, cumulative 25 bp hike 46.2%, and cumulative 50 bp hike 5.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: Today will see the release of US June housing starts (annualized), building permits, June import price index m/m, June industrial production m/m, July one-year inflation expectations (preliminary), July University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), as well as Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account, June CPI final y/y, and June CPI final m/m. In addition, China’s refined oil products will kick off a new price adjustment window. The 2026 World AI Conference and High-level Meeting on Global AI Governance runs from July 17 to 20 in Shanghai, and President Xi Jinping will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a keynote speech. 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks, 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy, and US President Trump delivers a national address. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.92% and Brent up 0.82%. The US escalated its strikes against Iran further on Thursday, with reports indicating that the US military attacked an oil tanker near Iran’s main export port, causing a notable contraction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. (Wall Street News) IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol: If oil and natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz do not improve in the coming weeks, we should be concerned about energy security. (Jin10 Data) Canada’s export credit agency said that global oil inventories continue to decline, making the energy market more vulnerable. Export Development Canada (EDC) expects international oil prices to average around $96/bbl this year and around $84/bbl in 2027. This forecast reflects ongoing market uncertainty and the need to rebuild depleted inventories to cope with potential future shocks. EDC Chief Economist Stuart Bergman said that oil storage facilities located around the world have now become the “marginal producer” of the oil market. Bergman noted that the pre-crisis inventory buildup and the release of strategic reserves helped offset the impact of supply reductions, but at the cost of global inventories falling below normal seasonal levels. He stated that if a permanent agreement could be reached to end the war and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-crisis levels, it would help ease tight supply. However, Bergman believes that the oil market remains under-supplied, and once geopolitical risks escalate, the market is highly vulnerable to further disruptions and wild price swings. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Capacity side, based on incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market stands at 43.77 GW, while the PEM electrolyzer market stands at 2.7 GW. Trina Green Hydrogen has completed the loading of two containerized integrated hydrogen production and refueling products, which will be shipped to Europe for use in a local integrated hydrogen production and refueling station demonstration project. The 100 Nm³ products shipped this time feature in-house developed alkaline electrolyzers at their core, adopt a containerized integration solution, and integrate full units including electrolytic hydrogen production, gas-liquid separation, and deep purification. Project Related Updates: Ordos Weiner Green Energy Logistics Co., Ltd.: The green logistics and hydrogen-electricity integrated hydrogen production and refueling project of Ordos Weiner Green Energy Logistics has obtained filing approval. The project is located in Dalaqi Banner Three Gorges Industrial Park, with a total investment of 63.1638 million yuan. It plans to build one 6 mt hydrogen refueling station, along with one 6,000 Nm³/h PSA physical hydrogen purification unit. The construction period is from August 2026 to August 2027. Wojiang Clean Energy (Xinjiang Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone) Co., Ltd.: Xinjiang Xinye State-owned Assets Management (Group) Co., Ltd. has issued negotiation and procurement announcements for the water electrolysis hydrogen production unit of its Zhundong 2 billion m³/year coal-to-natural gas project, officially launching the tender for 15,000 Nm³/h-scale water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, aiming to build a large-scale green hydrogen and low-carbon demonstration project for Xinjiang's coal chemical industry. The project is located in the Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang. Using coal as feedstock, it adopts mainstream coal chemical processes including fixed-bed crushed coal pressurized gasification, shift conversion, acid gas removal, and methanation, with planned annual output of 2 billion m³ of coal-to-natural gas, along with co-production of multiple chemical products such as naphtha, crude phenol, sulfur, liquid CO₂, liquid ammonia, green methanol, sodium chloride, and mirabilite. The water electrolysis hydrogen production unit under this tender is a low-carbon core supporting unit of the project, with a hydrogen production capacity of 15,000 Nm³/h. Baowu Clean Energy (Yangjiang) Co., Ltd.: The Baowu Clean Energy Yangjiang Green Energy Industrial Base (Green Hydrogen Production Site) project has completed filing. The project is developed by Baowu Clean Energy (Yangjiang) Co., Ltd., located on Fengtou Island in Yangxi County High-tech Zone, Yangjiang City. With a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan, it covers an area of 233,100 m² and has a building area of 110,000 m². It plans to construct eight factory buildings, supported by green hydrogen production workshops, material areas, and office areas. The project will use offshore wind power directly connected to water electrolysis to produce green hydrogen. Upon completion, it is expected to produce about 80,000 mt of green hydrogen annually, with an annual output value of 840 million yuan. Construction is planned to start on December 1, 2027 and be completed on June 1, 2029. Shanghai Electric Luyuan Technology (Jilin) Co., Ltd. : The Baicheng Taonan green hydrogen coupled with biomass green alcohol-oil integration new project has completed filing. The project has a total investment of 2.8647 billion yuan, covers an area of approximately 366,500 m², and plans to produce 208,300 mt of green methanol and 10,000 mt of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually. It plans to build core units such as biomass gasification, water electrolysis hydrogen production, methanol synthesis and distillation, and SAF production, with simultaneous construction of supporting utilities including water treatment, power distribution, and site office facilities. The project plans to start construction in August 2026 and be completed in December 2028. Inner Mongolia Hydrogen Power Technology Co., Ltd. : The Inner Mongolia Hydrogen Power Technology Dalad Banner grid-side standalone ESS demonstration project has commenced in the Dalad Economic Development Zone. With a total investment of 150 million yuan, it covers an area of 42 mu and has an energy storage capacity of 2 MW/4 MWh. It adopts a pure hydrogen energy storage route, equipped with 12 sets of 1,000 m³ alkaline electrolyzers, 2 sets of 1 MW hydrogen fuel cells, and 90,000 m³ hydrogen storage units, establishing an integrated industry chain of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen power generation. Diaobingshan Huadian Clean Energy Co., Ltd.: The Liaoning Huadian Diaobingshan 450,000 kW wind power-to-hydrogen coupled green methanol integration demonstration project has reached an important construction period, with the first batch of main steel structure columns successfully lifted into place, marking the official transition from civil works to the critical steel structure installation phase and an overall acceleration of construction progress. The project is a key new energy demonstration project in Liaoning Province, with a total installed capacity of 450,000 kW. Shaanxi Coal Group Yulin Chemical Co., Ltd. : Shuangliang Hydrogen secured an order from Shaanxi Coal Group Yulin Chemical for four 3000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers. This project is the supporting hydrogen production unit for the first phase of the second stage of Yulin Chemical's 15 million mt/year coal graded conversion demonstration project. The total supporting hydrogen production scale is 12,000 Nm³/h of hydrogen and 6,000 Nm³/h of oxygen. The unit will serve coal-to-methanol, methanol-to-olefins, and downstream deep processing production. Da'an Jidian Green Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. : SPIC Green Energy announced the bid candidates for Section D20-01 of its 20th batch of centralized new energy tenders in 2026. This section involves the procurement of an additional 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysis hydrogen production equipment for the Da'an wind and solar-based green hydrogen-to-synthetic ammonia integrated demonstration project. The first-ranked candidate is Jiangsu Trina Green Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 4.5251 million yuan (tax excluded). The project is located in Liangjiazi Town, Da'an City, Baicheng, Jilin Province. The overall annual hydrogen production is 32,000 mt, and the annual synthetic ammonia output is 180,000 mt, alongside supporting air separation units and hydrogen storage facilities. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Xin Energy Co., Ltd. : Candidates for the design procurement for the Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Xin wind power-hydrogen-storage integrated demonstration project were publicly announced. The top three candidate units and their tax-excluded quotes are: North Engineering Design & Research Institute (778,000 yuan), Hubei Electric Power Planning and Design Institute (805,800 yuan), and PowerChina Huadong Engineering Corporation (809,300 yuan). This demonstration project simultaneously deploys two electrolytic hydrogen production routes, configured with 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline water electrolysis and 500 Nm³/h PEM hydrogen production units, complemented by 20 m³, 1.5 MPa gaseous hydrogen storage tanks. It rents a 100 kg solid-state hydrogen storage system for technical verification, and concurrently builds a full set of supporting utilities including power supply, control, and nitrogen production. PipeChina Group: The first domestic field test for the sequential transportation of fuel methanol via a long-distance refined oil pipeline, led and implemented by PipeChina Group, was successfully concluded in Xianyang, Shaanxi. This marks a key breakthrough for China's methanol sequential transportation technology in refined oil pipelines, moving from theoretical research to engineering practice verification. Policy Review 1. The National Energy Administration issued the Energy Sector Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026-2028). The document notes to accelerate the energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation of coal mine equipment and facilities, promoting energy-saving technologies such as intelligent variable frequency speed control and energy consumption monitoring in large-load electromechanical equipment. It promotes the new energy replacement of mining area transportation equipment, applying electric and hydrogen fuel cell mining trucks on a large scale in suitable open-pit coal mines, and gradually implementing electric trackless rubber-tyred vehicles in underground coal mines based on transportation methods. 2. The State Council issued a notice on the 15th Five-Year Plan for Peaking Carbon Emissions Action Plan. The document notes to vigorously promote non-fossil energy development. It adheres to the simultaneous development of wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, and other energy sources, developing new energy with greater intensity, coordinating development layout, consumption, and utilization, and expanding the effective supply of non-fossil energy. It proposes building clean energy bases including wind and solar PV in the Three-North region, integrated hydro, wind and solar energy in Southwest China, coastal nuclear power, and offshore wind power, actively developing distributed PV and dispersed wind power, promoting the large-scale development of solar thermal and ocean energy power generation, utilizing biomass and geothermal energy according to local conditions, and arranging the construction of integrated bases for wind, solar, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol. 3. The Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau issued the Notice on Strengthening and Regulating the Development of Green Electricity Direct Connection. The document states to support distributed PV to participate in multi-user green electricity direct connection through centralized confluence. It strengthens source-load matching. The project's overall annual self-generated and self-consumed new energy electricity accounts for no less than 60% of the total available power generation and no less than 30% of total electricity consumption, reaching no less than 35% before 2030. The proportion of grid-connected electricity to total available power generation is capped at no more than 20%, and reverse power transmission to the public power grid is prohibited during grid new energy curtailment periods. For green electricity direct connection projects such as offshore wind power connecting to offshore oil and gas platforms, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol production, and computing power facilities, the proportion of grid-connected electricity can be relaxed to 40%. New energy curtailment from green electricity direct connection projects is excluded from new energy utilization rate statistics. Projects are encouraged to reduce system regulation pressure through means such as rationally configuring energy storage and tapping into flexible load adjustment potential. Enterprise News Beiben Heavy-Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. : The "Open Bidding for Major Technical Challenges" special project, led by Beiben Heavy-Duty Truck in collaboration with Shanghai Reinventing Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which formed an innovation consortium for coordinated tackling of key problems, achieved a major outcome—a 300 kW large power hydrogen fuel cell tractor officially rolled off the production line and successfully completed the declaration for the national motor vehicle product announcement. Wuhan Huagong Laser Engineering Co., Ltd. : China's first fully automated turnkey production line for gigawatt-level alkaline electrolyzers exported overseas was successfully shipped, achieving a benchmark batch-scale overseas delivery for the industry. China Hydrogen Energy Group Co., Ltd. : It fully authorized Xinersheng Machinery (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. to implement the production task for the full range of intelligent unmanned vehicle equipment, engaging in the large-scale batch production of hydrogen-powered, battery-powered, and other powertrain-based unmanned intelligent driving vehicles. Tianji Hydrogen Energy Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. : It officially launched two major new product series, the HIS Integrated Hydrogen Refueling Station and the HES Hydrogen-Electric Energy System, simultaneously deploying technology routes across ALK, PEM, and AEM. Guangdong Yuntao Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. : Yuntao Hydrogen and Kaiping Public Utility Group successfully held a signing ceremony for a strategic cooperation in the hydrogen energy industry. This signing represents a key cooperative project for Kaiping City to advance its green and low-carbon industrial layout and implement the transformation and upgrading of its energy structure. Suzhou Suqing Hydrogen Equipment Co., Ltd.: To provide a rapid replacement of electrolyzers for global automotive glass leader Fuyao Glass, Suzhou Suqing Hydrogen Equipment Co., Ltd. completed the full process of production, assembly, and air tightness testing for the electrolyzer in just 60 days, delivering the equipment on schedule. Cockerill Jingli (Suzhou) Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. : Dutch hydrogen developer Power2X made its final investment decision and issued a notice to proceed for the 20 MW Djewels green hydrogen project. Located in Delfzijl, Groningen, Netherlands, the project will utilize John Cockerill's innovative pressurized alkaline electrolysis water hydrogen production equipment and is expected to start production in mid-2028. Zhejiang Pilot Free Trade Zone PetroChina Fuel Oil Co., Ltd. : The methanol bunkering vessel Jiachen 17 completed a bunkering operation at the Zhoushan Tsuneishi Shipyard berth, refueling a Maersk methanol dual-fuel container ship with 795 mt of methanol over 5.5 hours. Patent Filings 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a lab-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) submitted patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprints/Technical Specifications 1. The latest research achievement by the team of Professor Hu Wenbin from Tianjin University was published online in Science, a top international academic journal. The study overcame the key challenge of precise preparation of platinum group catalysts, opening up a completely new technical path for atomically precise preparation of platinum group catalysts. 2. The team of Tong Lei and Liang Haiwei from the University of Science and Technology of China, together with Zhang Liang from Tsinghua University, proposed a Carbon Mesopore Depth Engineering (CMDE) strategy. By leveraging hollow mesoporous carbon spheres to regulate ionomer penetration depth, they resolved the inherent conflict between kinetic activity and oxygen mass transfer in low-platinum fuel cells, developing a PtCo low-platinum catalyst that combines poisoning resistance, high mass transfer, and excellent durability, meeting the US DOE's power, activity, and durability targets at an ultra-low platinum loading of 0.1 mgPt cm⁻². 3. The team of Professor Li Zhipeng from Northwestern Polytechnical University innovatively constructed a three-dimensional multi-physics field coupled model for tubular solid oxide fuel cells, systematically revealing the quantitative influence laws of temperature, electrode thickness, porosity, and oxygen domain geometric parameters on cell output performance. 4. The National Hydrogen Power Quality Inspection and Testing Center of China Automotive Research Institute completed and opened for commercial use a 0-400 kW hydrogen-related, load-carrying, three-axis integrated vibration testing platform, filling the gap in high-power, hydrogen-related multi-physics field coupled testing in China. 5. The high specific power cathode closed-loop air-cooled stack technology developed by the team of Academician Zhongwei Chen and Associate Researcher Meng Zhang from the State Key Laboratory of Energy Catalysis and Conversion at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively addresses the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, solving technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, dry membrane water flooding, and high-power thermal management.

SMM Jul 16: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally declined. SHFE copper slipped 0.22%, SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead rose 0.1%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin dropped 1.34%. SHFE nickel surged 2.94%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.26%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.36%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar and hot-rolled coil edged up. Stainless steel rose 1.13%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.31%, LME aluminum added 0.44%, LME lead advanced 0.68%. LME zinc rose 0.55%, LME tin climbed 0.46%. LME nickel jumped 2.47%. Precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver dipped 0.08%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold dropped 0.82%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 3.22%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.95%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 0.79% to 2,573.5 points. As of 11:43 on July 16, midday futures market snapshot: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,180 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,080 yuan/mt, down 1,015 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's power and ESS battery sales up 49.1% YoY in June] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released June 2026 power battery data, showing that in June, China's power and ESS battery sales were 196.0 GWh, up 7.6% MoM and up 49.1% YoY. Power battery sales were 133.4 GWh, accounting for 68.1% of total sales, up 5.0% MoM and up 41.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 62.6 GWh, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, up 13.4% MoM and up 67.5% YoY. January-June, China's cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 979.4 GWh, up 48.6% YoY. Power battery sales totaled 661.3 GWh, accounting for 67.5% of total sales, up 36.2% YoY; ESS battery sales totaled 318.1 GWh, accounting for 32.5% of total sales, up 83.4% YoY. (Jin10 Data App) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 616 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 626 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo maturing today, the day's net injection stood at 616 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 100.5. During his appearance before a Senate hearing, Fed Chairman Warsh frequently expressed dissatisfaction with inflation, stating: "Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect underlying inflation conditions. The labour market looks quite good, but the inflation side is less optimistic. I am not satisfied with any inflation metric. We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see if adjustments are needed to address inflation." The Fed's Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity expanded at a slight to mild pace in 11 of the 12 Fed districts, with the overall pace roughly on par with the prior period. The report noted that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers cutting back on discretionary spending and shifting to cheaper goods. Tourism rebounded, with World Cup-related traffic providing a boost for some regions. Manufacturing maintained mild growth, with orders rising in data centers, machinery, and national defense. Construction and real estate activity improved modestly, with data center construction a highlight. Drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer loan volumes rose modestly. However, agriculture was affected by lower commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most surveyed contacts expect the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, though significant uncertainty remains over the fuel cost outlook. Fed Governor Cooke stated on Wednesday that it is prudent to wait for inflation to slow for some time, but she is prepared to act if inflation does not slow soon. Cooke noted: "I believe we should give more time from now on to observe how inflation develops. However, looking ahead, I still see risks as primarily concentrated on the upside for inflation, driven by the investment boom in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and price pressures from the Iran war.""If we do not see signs of slowing inflation soon, I am prepared to act. I am fully committed to achieving our inflation target—that commitment is unwavering." Cook contrasted the current situation with a year ago, when inflation was well above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market appeared stable but ran the risk of both labor market and inflation slowdowns. "I note that the balance of risks has shifted markedly compared to about a year ago, and now inflation risks outweigh employment risks," she said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the odds of rates staying on hold stand at 51.2%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 44% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 4.7%. (Jin10 Data App) Other Currencies: On July 16, the Bank of Korea announced it would raise the 7-day repo rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, with all seven monetary policy board members voting unanimously for the 25-basis-point hike. This is the first rate hike by the Bank of Korea since January 2023 and marks the start of a new tightening cycle. The move was fully within market expectations. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all but one of the 37 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a July hike. A Korea Financial Investment Association poll of 100 fixed-income experts showed 66% forecast a rate increase this month. The rise from 2.50% to 2.75% appeared modest, but the signaling effect far outweighs the number itself. The Bank of Korea had cut rates four times since October 2024, reducing them by a cumulative 100 basis points, then held the benchmark rate steady for eight consecutive meetings. This rate hike may signal the formal end of the easing cycle. (Wall Street CN) Data: Data due today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US monthly retail sales for June, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July, the NAHB housing market index for July, US business inventories for May, the US pending home sales index for June, UK three-month GDP growth for May, UK manufacturing output for May, the UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and UK industrial production for May. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference of July. Fed Governor Cook Lisa will speak on the economic outlook. US Vice President Vance will deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions. US President Trump will give a speech. 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. TSMC will hold its 2026 Q2 earnings conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.23% and Brent down 0.52%. Concerns over geopolitical conflicts persisted, keeping oil prices moving sideways. US President Trump said oil prices would fluctuate for some time. For the week ended July 10, US EIA crude oil inventories dropped 1.692 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 2.594 million barrel decline and a prior build of 2.998 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories fell 1.533 million barrels, versus expectations for a 760,000 barrel decline and a prior drop of 1.904 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) A research report from Tianfeng Securities noted that the international crude oil market went through a "roller coaster" ride dominated by geopolitical risks in H1, with international oil prices surging to near $120/barrel before pulling back quickly. Recently, although tensions flared up again in the Strait of Hormuz, overall risks remain manageable. The core pricing logic for the crude market is shifting from "extreme geopolitical risks" to a three-way game among "geopolitical tail risk, political intervention, and fundamental equilibrium." In H2, oil prices are likely to see wild swings with resistance on the upside and support on the downside, with a general trend of "strength first, then weakness." The Brent price center is expected to trade within the $70/bbl–$75/bbl range. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 13: Metals market: As of the midday break, the domestic base metals nearly all fell, with SHFE copper down 0.78%, SHFE aluminum down 0.37%, SHFE lead down 0.62%, SHFE zinc down 0.68%, SHFE tin down 1.51%, and SHFE nickel up 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.32%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.2%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.36%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.6%, rebar fell 0.81%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.49%, and stainless steel edged up 0.07%. In coking coal and coke, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.47% and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.17%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:47, LME metals mostly fell, with LME copper down 0.81%, LME aluminum edged up 0.08%, LME lead down 1.11%, LME zinc down 0.75%, LME tin down 1.63%, and LME nickel down 0.51%. In precious metals, as of 11:47, COMEX gold fell 1.18% and COMEX silver fell 2.83%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold fell 1.47% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.97%. Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.19% and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.51%. As of the midday break, the most-traded container shipping futures (Europe route) contract rose 1.5% to 2,438 points. As of 11:47 on July 13, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, for Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,320 yuan/mt, down 710 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,215 yuan/mt, down 725 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory finally ended its seven consecutive declines… Macro front China: [Preview: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the improvement of the natural resource asset management system on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at 3:00 PM.] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with Vice Minister of Natural Resources Zhang Wentong and Deputy Director of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (National Park Administration) Zhang Liming briefing on the improvement of the natural resource asset management system and taking questions from the media. [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Achieves Net Injection of 217 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted a 224 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today. With 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the day saw a net injection of 217 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App) Regarding the US Dollar: As of 11:47, the US dollar index rose 0.18% to 101.14. The surge in oil prices reignited market concerns over inflation. The previous week, oil prices had already recorded their largest weekly gain since mid-May. Traders subsequently ramped up bets on further monetary policy tightening by the US Fed—the interest rate swap market is now pricing in a cumulative Fed rate hike of nearly 40 basis points by December, a significant increase from about 15 basis points in early June. (Wall Street CN) A Wall Street Journal survey of economists this month shows the impact of the conflict with Iran on the US economy is far smaller than economists previously feared. However, the bad news is that the conflict has made inflation, already well above the Fed’s 2% target, more entrenched and has deprived the Fed of room to cut interest rates. Compared with the April survey, conducted about a month after the conflict erupted, economists’ views have shifted markedly. Forecasters now expect the US economy to grow by 2.1% this year, measured by inflation-adjusted gross domestic product from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, up from the 2% estimate in April. The average probability of a recession within the next 12 months expected by economists fell to 25% from 33% in April, the lowest level since early 2025. Yet, improved growth prospects have been accompanied by growing inflation concerns. Economists expect consumer price index inflation to be 3.4% over the 12 months ending in December, up from 3.2% in the April survey. Inflation worries have extended beyond the war-driven boost to energy costs. Economists predict the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, a gauge closely watched by Fed officials, will rise 3.2% in 2026, higher than the 2.9% forecast in April. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 37.9%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate through September is 26.4%, that of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.8%, and that of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 21.8%. (Jin10 Data App) Investors will focus on the semi-annual testimony of the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for his latest views on inflation and interest rates, as well as updates on the progress of his plan to reform the Fed. Warsh is likely to be questioned by lawmakers about his extensive plan to reform the US Fed. The Fed previously announced the appointment list for the five working groups Warsh established to evaluate everything from communication methods to the size of the balance sheet. Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said investors will focus on Warsh’s testimony for more details and guidance on how the chair constructs the overall state of the US economy and Fed policy. The market is currently in a state of low volume and low confidence, at least until Tuesday’s inflation data and Warsh’s testimony are released. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of China’s June M2 money supply YoY, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date incremental social financing, among other data. Also, attention should be paid to Fed Governor Bowman’s speech on “Modernizing Financial Regulation.” On the crude oil front: As of 11:47, oil prices on both sides are up, with WTI up 4.02% and Brent up 3.97%. Uncertainty over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is directly driving oil prices higher. (Wall Street CN) Separately, Iraq's prime minister will visit Washington on Monday to deepen strategic ties with the US, with oil and gas agreements expected to be signed as part of a broader effort to boost economic, trade, and investment cooperation. Amid the ongoing US-Iran military escalation, Iraq has been seeking to balance its ties with neighboring Iran and the US. "The agreements to be signed will include multiple memoranda of understanding in the oil and gas sector, and Iraq is preparing to bring in a number of American companies to provide momentum for raising oil capacity," said Iraqi government spokesperson Hader Al-Abudi. The planned oil and gas agreements will also seek to open alternative export channels to reduce Iraq’s exposure should the Strait of Hormuz be disrupted, the Iraqi National News Agency quoted Al-Abudi as saying. Like other Gulf producers, Iraq suffered a drop in oil revenues during the US-Iran war due to the physical closure of this critical waterway. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►