[SMM Rare Earth Flash] London-listed critical minerals company NeoTerra Group announced that its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique has made a breakthrough in metallurgical testing, confirming a multi-commodity process route capable of simultaneous production of acid-grade fluorite, separated heavy rare earths, and gallium-containing material. In two-stage flotation tests, gallium was enriched approximately 100% in the first-stage tailings. The project holds a 25-year mining license, and JORC resources include 13.6 million mt (TREO grade 2.42%), 3.48 million mt (CaF₂ grade 20.6%), and 11.73 million mt (Ga₂O₃ grade 54.7 g/mt).

In H1 2026, the nickel salt (nickel sulphate) market experienced wild swings of "two rallies and two pullbacks," with price movements dominated by a pattern of cost support and demand-side drive.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Funds Drive SS Futures Higher, Spot Market Trade Sluggish According to SMM news on July 7, SS futures maintained a pattern of consolidating on a strong note overall. Fundamentals did not change significantly. Driven by fund-side operations, SS extended its strengthening trend from the previous trading day. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,775 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures continued to run strong, spot fundamentals did not improve noticeably: while spot offers were raised following the rally, after low-priced cargoes saw concentrated deals yesterday, market trading weakened again today, with confidence in the outlook remaining insufficient. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 am, SS2608 was at 14,790 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 280-680 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled slit-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it rose 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi offers were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industry logic dominated futures moves. US inflation data pulled back, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled further, and the US dollar index weakened, overall boosting commodity and nonferrous metals valuations and providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industry side remained persistently bearish, …

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. At the same time, gold is also benefiting from optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized his commitment to price stability and returning inflation to the central bank's target. However, he also said inflation risks had eased in recent weeks since taking over leadership of the Federal Reserve. In a comment to Kitco News, Hansen said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease, in line with Warsh’s comments. “Forward inflation expectations have collapsed, so tightening when the reason for tightening is easing with energy prices slumping makes no sense. Once that becomes the general market view, the dollar will soften as a very elevated long gets squeezed while short-end bond yields will move back towards Fed Funds rates,” he said. However, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer, Hansen said gold still has a lot of ground to recover, with prices remaining 26% below January’s highs. “Support below USD 4,000 has held so far, but the rebound towards USD 4,200 last week was met with renewed selling, indicating that some investors are still using strength to reduce exposure. Such price action is typical after a deep correction and helps explain why building a durable market trough can take time,” he said. “On the charts, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,485 represents the first major hurdle. Above that, the 38.2% retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 January-to-June correction sits near USD 4,574. A break above these levels would further improve the technical picture. Until then, the recovery is better viewed as an attempt to build a base." Along with growing optimism toward gold, Hansen said he is also encouraged by the recent price action in silver, even though prices on Monday were capped at $63.27 an ounce. “ Silver ’s latest sell-off was arrested ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s, with the subsequent rebound taking prices back above USD 60. The move is encouraging, but like gold, silver still has considerable work to do to repair the technical and psychological damage inflicted during the past few months. Silver combines gold ’s macro sensitivity with a tighter fundamental backdrop. Multi-year supply deficits and growing industrial demand provide structural support, but the market is much smaller and more flow-sensitive than gold. That makes silver particularly attractive to momentum-driven investors when conditions improve, while also exposing it to sharper liquidation when sentiment reverses,” he said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-price-may-have-found-its-floor-liquidation-gives-way-consolidation

July 6, 2026 Despite current headwinds from high U.S. yields and a strong dollar, HSBC believes the gold price still has further upside potential through the end of 2026. While the precious metal is currently trading within a narrow range in the short term—as higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of this non-interest-bearing asset—analysts remain extremely bullish on the long-term investment case. Short-Term Pressure: Raising Liquidity Rather Than a Safe Haven During the recent geopolitical crises in the Middle East and amid rising oil prices, gold behaved less like a traditional safe haven and, at times, moved in tandem with the stock market. In an environment marked by inflation concerns and falling stock markets, investors primarily used the precious metal as a highly liquid hedge. To quickly generate cash during tense market phases or to meet impending margin calls on other investments, gold positions were aggressively sold off. This development was accompanied by previously massively overextended positioning in the futures market. Driven in part by inexperienced speculators, a noticeable correction followed the rapid surge to around $5,400 per ounce at the end of January, as these often leveraged positions had to be hastily unwound. Also noteworthy for commodity investors is the profoundly altered market dynamic: The historical correlation between gold and oil, which was still strongly positive in the 1970s and 1980s, has since decoupled dramatically. Today, this correlation has weakened to a value of around 0.15 or even into negative territory, posing entirely new challenges for diversification in modern portfolios. Structural demand from Asia and ETF inflows provide support The gold price owes its solid foundation to the ongoing need for diversification among institutional investors. Global de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties, along with steady ETF inflows, are driving demand, particularly in Asia. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, this is reflected in a significant price premium of around 20 U.S. dollars. The focus here is less on jewelry or coins and more on large-format bars for the institutional sector. Regulatory changes in China and India now allow large local insurers and asset managers to strategically build up gold positions. This robust demand is complemented by steady purchases by central banks, as underscored by the People’s Bank of China ’s recent acquisitions of an additional 8.1 metric tons. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-for-2026-why-the-precious-metal-holds-huge-potential-despite-headwinds

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices: Low-Level Consolidation and Recovery as Destocking Positives Offset Overseas Capacity Negatives] On the macro front, US June nonfarm payrolls significantly missed expectations, causing the market to push back the timing of Fed rate hikes. A weaker US dollar provided valuation support for nonferrous metals. The US and Iran resumed nuclear talks, and the geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, to some extent capping the upside room for commodities. Meanwhile, expectations of new overseas aluminum capacity coming on stream formed a medium- and long-term supply bearish factor. Domestic positives stood out. The proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high over the past week. The pace of inventory destocking significantly accelerated, providing support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overseas positives from a weaker US dollar and negatives from supply/geopolitics offset each other. LME aluminum, after an earlier oversold decline, saw its downward momentum slow, and in the short term, it mainly undergoes low-level consolidation and recovery. Supported by rapid destocking, the probability of China’s market underperforming LME aluminum is low. SHFE and LME may see slight divergence, and a one-sided weak market is unlikely to persist.

Every major aluminum player made a rational bet in H1 2026, Indonesia's smelter wave, the US's Inola project, India's Adani-IHC deal, Alcoa's South32 buy, the Gulf's post-strike rebuild, none of it needing the Middle East war to justify itself, though the war's price spike (LME to $3,546, premiums to multi-year highs) accelerated all of it at once.

02 July 2026 Precious metals ended a record FY25/26 on a soft footing, with the USD gold price falling by close to 15% between March and June, its worst quarterly performance in more than a decade. This price fall—which began at the end of January—was caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar, a sharp rise in bond yields, a complete 180 from the market as it relates to interest rate expectations (with rate hikes in the United States now priced in), liquidity needs caused by the U.S.-Iran war, and a washout of the extreme bullishness and speculation that had crept into the gold and silver market earlier this year. There was also a huge surge in the stock market between March and early June (the S&P 500 was up over 20% during this period) as euphoria took over any tech- or AI-related trades. In the short-term at least, this diminished the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. While the pullback has been painful for some, it was certainly not unexpected—and was in many ways necessary, as long-term bull markets in any asset classes do require periodic consolidations. Importantly, the pullback has likely done its worst in terms of performance and price falls. It has also totally reset sentiment in the precious metal market, with euphoria replaced by fear and/or apathy—typically the kind of market conditions that reward buyers. It is also worth pointing out that despite the sell-off over the past five months, both gold and silver ended the financial year delivering strong gains for Australian investors, with the AUD gold price rising by 16%, while silver was up by over 50%. Take a longer-term view and the results are even more impressive, with the gold price up by more than 100% since June 2023. Silver has rallied by close to 150% over the same period, with the two precious metals strongly outperforming traditional assets over this period. The strong rally over the past three years has been driven by multiple factors, including: Strong Central Bank Buying : Central banks bought 3,000 tonnes of gold between 2003 and 2025, with a further 243 tonnes of buying in Q1 2026. Surveys of central bankers suggest holdings will continue to grow, with gold set to play a more important role as a reserve asset in the decade ahead. ETF Inflows in 2025: ETF holders were substantial net sellers between 2021 and 2024, with net sales each year and a total of 544 tonnes coming out of these products in that period. The tide turned from late 2024 onward, with almost 1,000 tonnes of inflows seen in the last 18 months. Surge in Demand for Retail Bars and Coins : Global bar and coin demand was 42% higher year-on-year in Q1 2026, while buying from this segment of the market topped 1,400 tonnes in 2025 (up 16% on 2024). A longer-term view is even more eye-opening, with gold bar and coin buying from 2023-2025 inclusive topping 3,800 tonnes (more than 30% of all mine output in that period). That level of buying is 13% higher than we saw in the three-year window from 2020-2022 inclusive, a period that included the Covid-19 pandemic. Source: World Gold Council Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends When you factor in dollar-based spending on bars and coins—with gold prices substantially higher in the 2023-2026 window vs the 2020-2023 window—the result is even more impressive. Outlook For 2026/27 Financial Year ABC Bullion remains optimistic on the outlook for bullion this year, with the huge pullback that we have seen in the last five months setting a base from which the long-term bull market can resume. The challenges posed by overvaluation assets remain unresolved, with the S&P 500 starting this new financial year trading above 40-times cyclically adjusted earnings. Inflation remains at problematic levels, with no easy way to use interest rates to bring it down, given the debt and deficit levels seen across the developed world, headlined by the United States, which will soon clock over USD $40 trillion in debt. I can personally remember when that number was closer to USD $10 trillion when the Global Financial Crisis hit. Heightened geopolitical conflict will be with us for the foreseeable future, creating permanent uncertainty as it relates to energy security and the potential for commodity price shocks. Last but not least, Western investors remain very lightly exposed to genuine safe-haven assets that can help protect their portfolio and provide a source of growth during otherwise challenging periods. Government bonds—which are likely to be a source of return-free risk, rather than risk-free return—will likely continue to drag on investor portfolios, with physical gold the only asset that has the market size, the liquidity and the risk/return profile to fill that gap. With a textbook correction now played out, sentiment readings that have historically been followed by an average 16% gain in the year that followed, and a 100% win-rate (data thanks to Sentiment Trader ), now is a great time to be looking to add more bullion to a portfolio. Until next time. Source： https://www.abcbullion.com/insights/market-updates/gold-set-for-a-strong-rally-as-new-financial-year-begins

Curated by Copilot Mid-year price outlook: WGC projects gold to hover near $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside if macro or geopolitical risks worsen. Correction from record: Prices fell over 25% from January’s $5,600 peak due to a strong dollar, Fed hike fears, and easing Iran tensions. Supportive demand factors: Central bank purchases and long-term investor participation may limit downside and sustain gold's role as a strategic asset. WGC forecasts gold stability with potential for sharp upside The World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook projects gold trading within 5% of $4,100/oz in H2 2026 under current macro conditions. Scenario analysis suggests a climb toward $4,500 is possible, and only a strong, clear catalyst could push prices sustainably to $5,000. Key upside drivers include worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a dovish turn in Fed policy, and increased long-term investor participation. Newsable Asianet News + 1 From January's record high to mid-year correction Gold has dropped more than 25% from its January 2026 record of $5,602, with London spot prices down over 33% from their peak. The reversal followed a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, alongside reduced safe-haven demand after US-Iran ceasefire developments. Analysts view the pullback as a corrective consolidation rather than a structural bear market, with technical support seen near $3,900 and $3,600. The Financial Express + 1 At current levels, the headwinds and tailwinds are unusually balanced. Every major gold bull run has seen a 30–40% correction before the next leg higher, and the current decline from January’s peak sits within that range. Kaynat Chainwala,AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities The Financial Express Gold rallies on softer U.S. labour data Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth in June reduced market bets on a September Fed rate hike, helping gold secure its first weekly gain in five weeks. The softer labour data also pressured the US dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Central banks added 41 tonnes to reserves in May, reinforcing long-term demand support despite recent volatility. The Economic Times + 2 Why the forecast matters for investors now For investors, the WGC’s range-bound outlook suggests patience and phased accumulation strategies amid uncertainty over Fed policy and dollar strength. Historical patterns show that major gold bull runs often see 30–40% corrections before resuming upward, aligning with the current decline. In India, domestic prices remain supported by rupee weakness and higher import duties, cushioning global downside and offering relative stability. The Financial Express + 2 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/wgc-sees-gold-steady-near-4-100-in-h2-upside-if-risks-rise

SMM Jul. 6 News: Metals Market Update: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market all rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.26%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.84%. SHFE lead ticked higher. SHFE zinc added 0.97%. SHFE tin surged 2.9%. SHFE nickel inched up 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.48%, while the most-traded alumina contract dipped 0.15%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.19%. The most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.48%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.45%. Ferrous metals all advanced. Iron ore, HRC, and rebar each rose within 0.5%. Stainless steel added 0.89%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract increased 0.82%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals all advanced. LME copper gained 0.74%, LME aluminum rose 0.71%, LME lead climbed 1.07%. LME zinc ticked up 0.1%, LME tin surged 3.94%. LME nickel added 0.61%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold advanced 1.27%, and COMEX silver jumped 2.24%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.62%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 0.5%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.2%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.17%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index (Europe) futures contract slid 2.56% to 2,592.5 points. As of 11:45 on Jul. 6, select futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Nickel: On Jul. 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price declined 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel stood at 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the prior day DoD... Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Results in Net Injection of 49.5 Billion Yuan] The PBOC conducted 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. With 157.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing, the day saw a net injection of 49.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s Foreign Visitor Arrivals, Share Hit Record Highs] As of 0:00 on Jul. 6, Baiyun Port station of the Guangzhou General Station of Immigration Inspection reported over 4 million foreign entries and exits at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport this year, up 34% YoY and accounting for over 41% of the airport’s total passenger flow. The growth rate topped the national average by 8 percentage points, with both volume and share reaching record highs. Overall, the port has handled over 10 million inbound and outbound passenger trips, up 19.6% YoY, crossing the 10 million mark 34 days earlier than in 2025. Inbound and outbound flights exceeded 63,000, up 14% YoY. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 100.95. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US Fed holds rates steady in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 23%. For September, the probability of no change is 41.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike 47.6%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 10.5%. Goncalves George, head of US macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said Warsh’s concise style gives the June meeting minutes greater weight than usual and offers a valuable lens into the differing stances among Fed officials. “The minutes will become more important because, so far, we don’t know what the Fed is thinking,” Goncalves George said. “It will be instructive to see how they debate and what they focus on.” He added that some investors have already questioned Warsh’s hands-off approach, and many would like to see greater transparency restored. Many market participants are not accustomed to the reduced flow of information, and there remains a considerable degree of skepticism over how long the Fed can maintain this. For now, we have to read between the lines. In a research note, Wan Michael, senior FX analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode, looking for the next catalyst for the US dollar and US interest rates. Looking ahead, “global markets will seek direction from key data points such as the US ISM services data and Fed minutes later this week, and US CPI next week,” he said. In addition, the market is also closely watching whether Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market last week to curb yen weakness, so this uncertainty risk should not be underestimated as USD/JPY continues to hover near the 162 level. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: As imports surge while export growth stalls, the boost from the mining boom to Australia’s trade appears to be fading, and the country may face its first annual trade deficit since 2016. This year, the goods trade surplus has narrowed sharply as the data center construction boom drives a surge in imports of fuel and equipment, while exports have stagnated. This trend appears set to continue, with the Australian government forecasting that export revenue from key commodities will grow only 3% in the current fiscal year compared with the previous one. The mining investment boom drove a surge in exports of iron ore, natural gas, and other commodities, fueling years of economic expansion and wealth accumulation. A return to deficits, however, could weigh on the Australian dollar and constrain the government’s fiscal space. Economist James McIntyre said, “Commodity price declines are expected to weigh on export revenues. As a result, the trade surpluses and occasional current account surpluses recorded over the past decade may give way to a pattern of deficits.” (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for France and Switzerland in June, the eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the eurozone May PPI monthly rate, the eurozone May retail sales monthly rate, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, among other data, will be released. Additionally, speeches are expected from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.57%. Oil prices were weighed down by OPEC+’s latest decision to raise output. After an online meeting on Sunday, the group said it would increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, analysts at ANZ Research said in a note, “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, members may struggle to utilize this additional capacity due to ongoing risks to vessels.” The analysts noted, “During the weekend, multiple vessels were observed making abrupt course reversals while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman route.” (Jin10 Data App) A statement showed that OPEC+ will raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and allies including Russia, have collectively raised production quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day from April to July. However, because the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker shipments for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, previous increases have largely remained on paper. (Jin10 Data App) According to agency reports, the number of vessels transiting the channel along the Omani coast of the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply on Sunday. A day earlier, multiple vessels sailing out of the strait along that channel abruptly executed sharp course reversals, underscoring Iran’s ongoing tightening of control over this strategic waterway. A product tanker that turned back on Saturday appears to be attempting passage again, having now passed the northernmost tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Earlier, another product tanker transited the same route and openly broadcast its voyage intent, and is now broadcasting its position in the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels have opted for "dark transit" through the strait. A Suezmax crude tanker, which last broadcast its position in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels suddenly turned around while transiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani lanes. Four of them then altered course northward, exiting the strait via the Iranian side. There is no official explanation for the sudden turnaround of these vessels. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that ships can only transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian-designated and -authorized lanes. According to Kpler data, on Saturday a total of 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, but only one openly indicated it would enter the strait along the Omani coastal lanes, compared to 13 on Friday. The above statistics cover only observable vessel movements. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►