SMM May 11 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.01%, SHFE aluminum up 0.86%, SHFE lead edged down slightly, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE tin was up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel up 0.86%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.09%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.81%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.1%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.8%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.86%, rebar up 0.52%, hot-rolled coil up 0.46%, and stainless steel down 0.07%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.85%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.65%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper rose 0.59%, LME aluminum up 0.67%, LME zinc down 0.31%, LME lead edged up slightly, LME tin up 1.16%, and LME nickel up 1.29%. Precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.77% and COMEX silver rose 0.66%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.96%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.68%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.14%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.62%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 5.07% to 2,474.5 points. As of 11:46 on May 11, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Lead: An SMM survey showed that in April, refined lead supply from secondary lead enterprises edged up MoM, mainly driven by production resumptions at previously idled enterprises and restocking of raw materials to boost output... Macro Front China: [NBS: April CPI Up 1.2% YoY, PPI Up 2.8% YoY, PPI Growth Expanded] NBS data showed that in April 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.2% YoY. Among them, urban areas were up 1.2% and rural areas up 1.0%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 1.8%; consumer goods prices rose 1.4%, and services prices rose 0.9%. On average from January to April, the national CPI was up 0.9% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 0.3% MoM. Among them, urban areas were up 0.3% and rural areas up 0.1%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 0.7%; consumer goods prices rose 0.1%, and services prices rose 0.5%. In April 2026, national industrial producer ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY and 1.7% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices rose 3.5% YoY and 2.1% MoM. For the January–April average, industrial producer ex-factory prices were up 0.2% from the same period last year, and industrial producer purchase prices were up 0.5%. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the April 2026 CPI and PPI data. The main characteristics of PPI MoM movements this month were as follows: First, international input factors drove up prices in China's petroleum-related industries. Rising international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries. Specifically, prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry rose 18.5% MoM, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry prices rose 16.4%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing prices rose 8.3%, chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose 5.6%, and rubber and plastics products industry prices rose 1.7%. Second, increased demand in some domestic industries drove prices higher. Rapid growth in computing power demand and accelerated electrification pushed optical fiber manufacturing prices up 22.5% MoM, external storage devices and components prices up 3.2%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.2%. Restocking demand for thermal coal was released, combined with increased non-power coal demand from chemical and metallurgical industries, driving coal mining and washing industry prices up 1.9%. Continued advancement of manufacturing equipment upgrades drove increased steel demand, pushing ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.6%. Third, competition order in the Chinese market continued to improve, with prices in related industries rising or declines narrowing. Efforts to address "involution-style" competition continued to show results, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices up 1.6% MoM, new energy vehicle manufacturing prices down 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As no reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 500 million yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index was up 0.24% at 98.08. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that US April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, thanks to strong corporate earnings and enterprises' effective response to supply chain disruptions triggered by the Iran war. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, in line with economists' expectations. From trade to immigration to tax policy, changes across various fronts posed challenges for enterprises, but most did not resort to large-scale layoffs. At the same time, enterprises appeared to take various intertwined headwinds in stride. Robust consumer demand meant that despite news of high-profile layoffs at well-known companies, low hiring was often accompanied by relatively low levels of layoffs. Data from the Department of Labor and human resources firm ADP earlier this week showed that the job market was stabilizing. Strong hiring in healthcare and social assistance also underpinned overall employment figures. US equities at or near record highs boosted confidence among corporate CEOs. The full impact of the conflict with Iran and the resulting rise in energy prices had yet to manifest in the labour market. Rising US oil prices had put greater pressure on lower-income households, which could dampen travel and services spending, in turn dragging on hiring in sectors such as retail and leisure. The impact of higher oil prices was particularly severe for airlines. However, these effects had yet to show up clearly in monthly employment data. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 93.8%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 88.8%, with a 10.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, compared with its previous forecast of cuts in September and December this year. A CITIC Securities research report noted that US nonfarm payrolls in April 2026 came in above expectations, while the unemployment rate of 4.3% was in line with expectations. We believe April data better reflected the current state of the US job market than the previous two months: first, one-off factors diminished in April; second, the enterprise response rate was higher in April; and third, the Birth-death model impact was the smallest among the last four data releases. Demand side, the US labour market in April exhibited overall resilience with marginally increasing layoff pressure. Supply side, the labour force participation rate and employment-population ratio declined, but the prime-age (25–54) participation rate remained stable, suggesting it was not a large-scale exit of core labour force but rather aging and retirement factors dragging down the overall participation rate. Regarding US Fed monetary policy, we maintain our previous view: after Waller takes over, if the Iran situation eases and oil prices pull back, driving inflation expectations lower, the base case for H2 is one interest rate cut of 25 bps. Other currencies: Bearish yen positions decreased significantly after Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen, highlighting how official action curbed this crowded trade. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the yen in the week ending May 5. Currently, their net short position in the Japanese yen stood at 61,340 contracts, valued at approximately $4.9 billion, hitting the lowest level in nearly a month. Meanwhile, asset management firms also cut 13,839 short contracts, bringing their open interest down to 10,653 contracts. "Given the intervention risk and strong official warnings, chasing yen shorts near the 160 level has become unattractive," said Stefan Rittner, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors. He held a neutral stance on the USD/JPY exchange rate. However, he noted that "despite the yen's already cheap valuation, persistent structural headwinds limit the scope for a sustained rebound"; moreover, further intervention risks are expected to rise once the USD/JPY rate approaches its previous highs again. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US April existing home sales annualized total and China's April M2 money supply year-on-year. In addition, attention should be paid to: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan, where he will meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the central bank governor, and the Finance Minister. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 4.65% and Brent up 4.17%. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran supported oil prices. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump posted on social media on May 10, expressing dissatisfaction with Iran's response, calling it "completely unacceptable." This statement cast a shadow over the already fragile Middle East ceasefire situation. Oil prices jumped sharply after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that two more fully loaded crude oil tankers switched off their trackers while passing through the Strait of Hormuz last week to evade Iranian attacks. Data indicated that the very large crude carrier "Basrah Energy" loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude oil from ADNOC's Zirku terminal on May 1 and passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 6. The vessel discharged its cargo at the Fujairah tanker terminal on May 11. It remained unclear which company chartered the tanker owned and managed by shipping company Sinokor. ADNOC and its buyers had recently dispatched tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on multiple occasions to transport crude oil, in response to the issue of stranded oil in the Persian Gulf caused by Middle East conflicts. Another very large crude carrier, Kiara M, switched off its transponder and departed the Persian Gulf on Sunday, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. The discharge destination of this San Marino-flagged tanker remained unclear. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Published: May 09, 2026 - 12:24 AM Updated: May 09, 2026 - 12:28 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices continue to trade in elevated territory, holding new support above $4,700 an ounce, and some analysts have noted that downside risks for the precious metal remain limited as central bank demand continues to provide solid support. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China continues to see lower gold prices as a buying opportunity, as the central bank bought 8.1 tonnes of gold in April, following its 5-tonne purchase in March. China has been a dominant player in the gold market in recent years, increasing its official gold reserves for the last 18 consecutive months. At the same time, the pace of purchases is at its highest level since December 2024. Analysts have said that it is difficult to be short gold when the market continues to see consistent demand from the official sector. “Central bank purchases have been among the key drivers of gold demand for over four years,” said Barbara Lambrecht, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, in a note on Friday. “Despite the significant rise in prices, purchases by central banks and other public institutions in the first quarter totaled nearly 245 tonnes, according to the WGC, which was 3% higher than the previous year and even slightly above the five-year average.” Although China has been a key player in the gold market, it is certainly not alone. Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), said in a social media post on Thursday that updated reserve data showed the Czech National Bank bought 2 tonnes of gold last month. “Its YTD net purchases now total 8 tonnes, helping to lift total gold holdings to over 79 tonnes,” he said. Gopaul also said that according to preliminary estimates, Poland’s central bank bought another 13 tonnes of gold in April; however, he added that this cannot be confirmed until official reserve numbers are updated. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/china-and-other-central-banks-continue-buy-dip-gold

Published: May 07, 2026 - 2:28 AM Updated: May 07, 2026 - 2:41 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher. In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices. Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran. “With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. “ Gold ’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.” High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices. “ Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said. Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “This should benefit gold, with ETF purchasing decisions particularly sensitive to policy signals and gold now realigning with real rates,” Gower said. As indicated by the current market volatility, gold ’s future depends heavily on what happens with the conflict in the Middle East. Overnight, President Donald Trump said that great progress is being made toward a lasting peace agreement. Analysts have said that if the crisis ends soon, the global economy should be able to recover from the current energy supply crisis. However, Gower added that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risks are for gold. “ Gold prices may suffer if markets begin to anticipate prolonged rate holds or even hikes,” Gower warned. “At the same time, upside in a resolution scenario could be limited, as already elevated prices may constrain demand from ETFs, central banks and consumers.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-06/morgan-stanley-sees-gold-prices-climbing-5200-despite-geopolitical

"Tin" Leads the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in a New Cycle **Conference Background** Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point, where traditional cyclical logic has been fundamentally disrupted and strategic value has become fully prominent. The tin market in 2026 presents an unprecedented complex landscape and profound transformation: **I. Deep Restructuring of the Supply-Demand Pattern with Unprecedented Elevation of Strategic Attributes** The global static reserve-to-production ratio of tin resources is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressures": repeated setbacks in Myanmar's production resumptions, continued policy tightening in Indonesia, and elevated geopolitical risks in the DRC — resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure has undergone a fundamental shift, and tin has become a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing with the digital future. **II. Price System Breaking Historical Records with the Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping** In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, hitting a record high. This price breakthrough is not only a reflection of supply-demand imbalance but also a hallmark of the value reassessment of the tin industry. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration approaches all urgently require innovative breakthroughs. **III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Fostering a New Symbiotic Ecosystem** Digital and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade toward low-carbonisation and circular economy models, making secondary tin recycling and green smelting processes an inevitable path. All segments of the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, August 19-21, 2026 , Changsha, Hunan , the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will bring together global industry elites for in-depth discussions. Huaxun Group Co., Ltd. (Russia) will attend this grand event, joining industry peers to explore industry development trends and work together to propel the tin industry to new heights. Click the to register now. Join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! As a benchmark cross-border comprehensive service provider between China and Russia, the group focuses on bulk commodity trade supply chains while expanding into IT, telecommunications, and energy equipment sectors. Leveraging resource integration across both China and Russia, a mature logistics and after-sales service system, and its membership in the Russia-China Business Council, the group has established efficient government-enterprise cooperation channels between the two countries. The group's Russian headquarters is located on the 63rd floor of the Federation Tower in Moscow, with a dedicated office in China, enabling efficient coordination between the two locations to provide solid support for cross-border operations. Shenzhen Yixingtongyuan Trading Co., Ltd. , as the group's China service window, specializes in serving China-Russia bulk commodity trade, helping Chinese enterprises connect with premium Russian supply chains, and serving as a reliable partner in China-Russia cross-border trade with professionalism and efficiency. With deep expertise in the non-ferrous metal sector, we possess direct upstream procurement advantages and can steadily supply large quantities of metal resources including tin, lead, zinc, silver, copper, antimony, selenium, lead ore powder, zinc ore powder, and tin ore powder. A benchmark comprehensive service provider for China-Russia cross-border cooperation. The Group focuses deeply on bulk commodity trade and supply chain business, while expanding its layout into IT, telecommunications and energy equipment sectors.Leveraging integrated resources from both China and Russia, a mature logistics and after-sales service system, and its membership status in the Russia-China Business Council, the Group builds an efficient cooperation channel for government and enterprise exchanges between the two countries.Headquartered on the 63rd floor of Moscow Federation Tower in Russia, the Group has dedicated office institutions in China, achieving efficient linkage between the two locations to provide solid support for cross-border businesses.As the China regional service window of the Group, Shenzhen Yihang Tongyuan Trading Co., Ltd. specializes in China-Russia bulk commodity trade, assisting domestic enterprises in connecting with high-quality Russian supply chains, and has become a reliable partner for China-Russia cross-border trade with professionalism and high efficiency.With in-depth cultivation in the non-ferrous metal sector, we boast direct upstream procurement advantages and can steadily supply large quantities of resources including tin, lead, zinc, silver, copper, antimony and selenium. 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China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

Copper prices moved closer to record highs on May 8, driving strong gains in shares of BHP and Rio Tinto. Investors are increasingly betting that AI infrastructure, power grid upgrades, and clean energy investment will create long-term structural demand for copper. Analysts in Australia said discussions around a new commodity supercycle are intensifying as capital flows back into mining stocks.

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

The 2026 SMM London H1 Seminar concluded on April 29 with great success, bringing together global metals and commodities leaders for a day of high-level dialogue and actionable insights. The seminar drew over 160 valid pre-registrations and more than 100 on-site attendees, gathering core practitioners, senior experts, research scholars and institutional representatives across the global non-ferrous metals industrial chain. Centered on copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, the event delivered in-depth insights into current industry performance, supply-demand shifts and future market outlooks. It also featured two high-level panel sessions with distinguished guests, who exchanged views on key industry highlights such as geopolitical impacts, global trade restructuring, cross-market arbitrage and divergent commodity fundamentals. The event comprehensively reviewed the macro backdrop of commodities as well as opportunities and risks in base metals, offering professional references and forward-looking insights for global non-ferrous market participants. SMM Industry Analysis: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Lead & Zinc Geopolitics and Metals: Pricing the New Global Risk Premium How rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping global supply chains, macro risk, and base metal price formation. Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd., provided analysis on macro trends and the aluminum and nickel markets. From a macro perspective, he noted that global economic uncertainty has intensified, with the IMF cutting global GDP growth forecast. China's exports may serve as a key economic pillar in 2026. Power sector investment increased significantly from January to February 2026. The State Grid Corporation of China will ramp up investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. In terms of the aluminum market, Chinese smelters saw improved profitability and higher operating rates. Weak demand in Q1 combined with rising aluminum prices drove inventory to rise. Outside China, new aluminum capacity additions in Indonesia in 2026 are expected to be substantial, with SMM estimating approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity potentially coming online in Indonesia in 2026. Angola is attracting Chinese investment thanks to its hydropower advantages. In the nickel market, given the Indonesian government's tightening of quotas, SMM estimates Indonesia's RKAB supplementary quotas this year at approximately 15%-20%. In terms of supply outside China, constrained by a lack of new projects, imports from the Philippines are expected to remain at around 19 million mt. Considering the impact of the rainy season on production, the market is expected to maintain a tight balance. Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Market Analyst & Client Advisor at SMM, shared insights on the global copper market. He noted that global copper cathode demand will continue to grow from 2025 to 2030, with demand potentially reaching around 32 million mt by 2030 in an optimistic scenario. China's copper concentrates still rely on imports, and global copper concentrates supply will remain tight from 2026 to 2028, with the downward trend in spot TC not yet over. Meanwhile, global copper cathode production growth will slow down in the future, and the market will most likely fall into a supply deficit from 2027 to 2030, providing long-term support for copper prices. Yueang He, Senior Lead & Zinc Analyst at SMM, interpreted the lead-zinc market trends for 2026. Looking at the global zinc concentrates market in 2026, he stated that although production in China, Africa, and some projects continues to ramp up, production cuts at large mines are suppressing overall supply, with China's zinc concentrates production estimated to be up 4.8% YoY to 3.95 million mt in 2026; European smelting, affected by electricity prices fluctuations, may see selective minor production cuts of 60,000-100,000 mt. Overall, the zinc concentrates market in and outside China will maintain a tight balance in 2026, with refined zinc showing a surplus in China and a deficit ex-China. In terms of lead market, he stated that global lead mine supply is gradually recovering, but the concentrates market remains tight, and TC is unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term. He estimates that the loose supply situation in the global refined lead market will persist until 2028, with high visible inventory on both exchanges combined with slightly soft battery demand in China limiting the upside room for lead prices. Panel Session — Positioning and Price Signals: What Are Commodity Markets Telling Us? Understanding market positioning, inventory signals, and cross-market arbitrage. Moderator: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Analyst & Client Advisor at SMM Panelists: David Lilley, Director and Co-CIO at Drakewood Capital Management Limited Maruis Van Straaten, Metals Research Analyst at Squarepoint Gregory Shearer, Head of Base Metals and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan Loic Jonchery, Base Metals Trader at Gunvor The panelists focused on current mainstream cross-market arbitrage strategies, emphasizing the need to closely track premiums and futures price spreads across various commodities, while comparing price spread performance across upstream and downstream categories such as cathode materials, scrap, and intermediate products, leveraging signals to identify arbitrage opportunities. The current market is subject to multiple influences including policy constraints, supply adjustments, and changes in industry rules, with the overall landscape becoming increasingly fragmented. China's policies have imposed a supply ceiling, compounded by industry framework adjustments and lengthy implementation cycles, keeping small and medium-sized enterprise operations and the supply side persistently tight, increasing market friction, and creating significant uncertainty in arbitrage trading. In this complex environment, price spread fluctuations have amplified and ranges continued to widen, with enhanced trend continuity in underlying markets; combined with cross-regional approval processes and circulation restrictions, traditional arbitrage logic has broken down and trade execution difficulty has increased. At the sub-sector level, the copper market attracted high attention, while structural distortions in nickel and other categories became prominent, making conventional arbitrage and sales models difficult to execute consistently; quality arbitrage opportunities concentrated among entities with balance sheet advantages, while ordinary participants became more cautious in decision-making, with overall trading behavior turning more conservative. Overall, the guests believed that there is no universally applicable, low-risk cross-market arbitrage strategy in the current market. Logic across different sub-markets has diverged significantly, and conducting related trades requires thorough assessment of policy, circulation, and fundamental risks. Panel Session: Superpowers and the Battle for Base Metals Moderator: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst, Middle East, North Africa and Asia, StoneX Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Strategy, Citi Helen Amos, Managing Director and Commodities Analyst, BMO Capital Markets Amy Gower, Executive Director, Head of Metals and Mining Commodities Strategy, Morgan Stanley Amy Gower stated that since H2 last year, they have held a structurally bullish view on aluminum fundamentals: China's aluminum capacity is approaching its ceiling, and combined with expectations of incremental supply from Indonesia, the bullish logic for the aluminum industry is concentrated in H2. Currently, supply-side tightening in the aluminum market has gradually materialized, but the tightness has not been fully reflected in futures prices, and is instead more evident in strengthening spot premiums. Year-to-date, three-month aluminum has risen 18%, with European spot premiums at 27%. In addition, the guests noted that due to geopolitical factors, countries are increasingly prioritizing self-sufficiency and controllability of critical material supply chains, rather than relying on globalized supply allocation. Combined with various policy interventions, the previously freely flowing global commodities market is gradually moving toward regionalization and localized fragmentation. On the trade front, markets have become more unpredictable, and understanding the market is crucial. Some guests mentioned that interest rate trajectory is a key variable, and they expect that after interest rates decline from 2027 to 2028, supply-demand and inventory dynamics will further materialize. Meanwhile, upgraded supply chain governance and the normalization of strategic reserves across countries will provide long-term support for commodities price resilience. Session 4: How Do SMM Data and Information Products Empower Commodities Decision-Makers? As a globally renowned non-ferrous metals price assessment platform, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is committed to providing superior data to clients worldwide, empowering them to make more precise decisions. SMM understands that in a complex and ever-changing market environment, accurate and timely data is the key to success. To this end, SMM has built a comprehensive data platform covering multiple metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel. Taking the copper market as an example, the SMM database covers the entire industry chain from mines, smelting, trading, and inventory to downstream demand, offering over 10,000 key indicators across sub-categories such as copper cathode, copper scrap, copper concentrates, copper anode, and sulphuric acid, including real-time spot prices, futures data, supply-demand balance tables, operating rates, and social inventory, comprehensively meeting clients' analytical needs. To make data access simpler and more convenient, SMM launched the SMM Excel Add-in. Users need no programming or API knowledge to browse, select, and sync massive amounts of data with a single click within the familiar Excel environment. In addition to easy-to-use data tools, SMM also offers professional price membership services and in-depth market analysis reports. Whether you are a trader who needs real-time price references, an analyst who relies on granular data to build models, or an enterprise manager seeking market insights, you can find the right solution at SMM. Coffee Break and Networking With this, the 2026 SMM H1 London Seminar has come to a successful conclusion. SMM sincerely appreciates the strong support from all industry peers and partners.

JSW Steel delivered record production and sales in FY2024-25, but weaker steel realizations dragged down revenue and margins, creating a clear growth paradox: higher volumes but lower earnings quality. As India’s largest steelmaker, JSW’s next challenge is to turn its scale into more resilient earnings through higher VASP contribution, stronger raw material security, selective overseas improvement, technology partnerships, and decarbonization readiness.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.