[SMM Daily Comment: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, NPI Market Continued to Move Sideways] May 26, the SMM upstream sentiment index for high-grade NPI was 3.09, down 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment index for high-grade NPI was 2, flat MoM.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, LME zinc was closed due to Memorial Day. Considering expectations of easing geopolitical conflicts, LME zinc is expected to mainly fluctuate at highs during the day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weak Supply-Demand Pattern for Aluminum Alloy Continues, Short-Term Sideways Movement Expected] Last Friday, the ADC12 market overall maintained a stable-price wait-and-see pattern. Market sentiment was cautious, and the SMM ADC12 price held steady from the previous day at 23,700 yuan/mt.

SMM May 25 News: Driven by rising market expectations for coal policy changes and concerns over tightening supply, bullish sentiment was released in a concentrated manner. Coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit up on May 25 and remained locked at the limit. As of the close of the daytime session on May 25, the most-traded coking coal and coke futures contracts were locked at the daily limit with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. The limit-up moves in coking coal and coke lifted the broader ferrous metals and related raw material sectors, with the ferrosilicon continuous most-traded contract rising 3.97% on May 25. Supported by the strengthening prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, magnesium ingot prices moved higher, with magnesium ingots gaining over 2% in a single day on May 25. Bullish sentiment in the market had already begun to emerge last Sunday. Rising Coal and Ferrosilicon Prices Highlight Cost Support for Magnesium Ingots Spot market: Primary magnesium smelting is highly dependent on raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, with a clear cost transmission chain. As coal prices continued to rise, cost pressure on upstream magnesium enterprises increased significantly. Some upstream enterprises reported that they had already raised their quotations to 16,700 yuan/mt last Sunday. On May 25, although morning inquiries were lukewarm, supported by the rigid cost underpinning from rising raw material prices, most producers still held firm at 16,700 yuan/mt, with a strong willingness to hold prices firm. By region, magnesium ingot prices across China were generally raised by 350 yuan/mt. Mainstream quotations for magnesium ingots (9990) in Fugu, Shenmu, and Inner Mongolia were 16,700 yuan/mt, while quotations in Wenxi were 16,900 yuan/mt. Currently, relevant policies for the coal mine market have not yet been officially implemented. The industry as a whole maintains a cautious wait-and-see stance, and the pace and impact of subsequent policy implementation deserve close attention. Outlook Looking at this round of magnesium price increases, the core driving factor was the rise in raw material costs such as coal and ferrosilicon, representing a typical cost-push price increase rather than one driven by improvements in supply-demand fundamentals. From the current magnesium market fundamentals perspective, the overall oversupply pattern has not shown significant improvement. Although downstream demand demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, end-use demand showed no notable incremental growth, while supply within the market also showed no obvious contraction, leaving fundamentals lacking strong upward support. Overall, the short-term raw material price increases effectively underpinned magnesium prices, supporting magnesium prices to hold up well. However, constrained by the weak supply-demand pattern, the rebound room for magnesium prices in this round is relatively limited. Going forward, it is essential to continue closely monitoring price fluctuations in coal and ferrosilicon raw materials and the implementation of coal mine-related policies, while paying close attention to the release of downstream demand and changes in market supply, in order to assess the pace and upside room for subsequent magnesium price movements. Recommended Reading:

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 93,030 yuan/mt, dipped to 92,550 yuan/mt in early trading before the center fluctuated upward, touching a high of 94,030 yuan/mt after the day session opened, then the center moved lower, ultimately closing at 93,660 yuan/mt, up 0.68%. Open interest stood at 5,272 lots, down 2,753 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 9,164 lots, up 2,407 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the US-Iran agreement has not yet been finalised. Trump stated that the deal was largely reached but there was no rush to sign, demanding Iran give up highly enriched uranium. Israel opposed the agreement, preparing for high-intensity operations and demanding the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear facilities. The next round of talks may be held on June 5. Market expectations for a US-Iran deal warmed, exerting a bullish impact on copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported sources remained relatively low, domestic source arrivals edged up, and the tight supply pattern improved marginally. Demand side, consumption was suppressed by rising copper prices, with overall performance remaining weak. Inventory side, as of Monday, May 25, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide increased by 2,300 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, with total inventories up 105,500 mt compared to the same period last year at 139,700 mt. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 105,520 yuan/mt. Calculated based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 93,660 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,836 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -316 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that narrowed from the previous day.

[Brief Comment on China's Iron Ore Market] In Shandong, mine-mouth price of 64% grade alkaline concentrate (dry basis, pre-tax) was quoted at 880, down 29. Steel mills lowered prices in tandem and slowed their purchasing pace, leading to a slight inventory buildup at mines. Shipments from small plants and traders also slowed, with overall transactions remaining sluggish. Over the weekend, a particularly severe accident occurred at a coal mine in Shanxi, but it had no significant impact on local mines and beneficiation plants in Shandong.

Underlying end-user demand in Europe has still not shown any real improvement. Management comments from both Outokumpu and Aperam indicate that demand remains flat at a low level. As service centers and distributors now have to restock at elevated prices while struggling to pass those increases on downstream, market participants in Germany, Italy, Poland, and elsewhere are being forced into price concessions, putting further pressure on margins.

SMM, May 25: During the session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward in early trading, touching a high of 16,820 yuan/mt, before pulling back under pressure mid-session, dipping to a low of 16,705 yuan/mt, then moving sideways within the 16,715-16,745 yuan/mt range. Prices rebounded slightly near the close but with limited gains, ultimately settling at 16,755 yuan/mt, marking a four-day winning streak, up 20 yuan/mt or 0.12%. Currently, imported lead supplies have shrunk and domestic lead ingot inventory has pulled back, providing fundamental support for lead prices. However, multiple secondary lead enterprises resumed production in late May, with market supply becoming looser MoM from early May, exerting bearish pressure on prices. Overall, lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend with limited upside momentum. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Daily Comment: Bullish and Bearish Factors Pulling Against Each Other, Market Transactions Centered Around Average Prices] May 25 — The SMM upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 3.12, flat MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2, down 0.05 MoM.

[SMM Daily Comment: Silver Prices Rebounded Slightly, Month-End Trading Sluggish] SMM reported on May 25 that easing macro sentiment drove silver prices to rebound, spot discounts narrowed, but month-end buying and selling were inactive, and trading remained sluggish.