Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL), a subsidiary of Coal India, reported a 1.6% decline in coking coal production for February 2026. This minor contraction comes as India designates coking coal as a "critical mineral" to reduce import dependency, even as port traffic for coking coal imports rose 11% in the April-February FY26 period.

Since October last year, coking coal has experienced a very smooth one-way downtrend. Coking coal futures prices have fallen by 52.4% from their peak in October last year, with a decline of 36% since the beginning of this year. "The main reason for the sharp drop in coking coal futures prices is the supply-demand imbalance. Raw coal production from January to April this year increased by 6.6% YoY, while thermal power generation decreased by 4.1% YoY, highlighting the significant oversupply of steam coal. Coking coal production from January to April increased by 6.1% YoY, while domestic steel demand remained weak. New housing starts in the real estate sector decreased by 24.1% YoY, and railway investment only increased by 1.6% YoY. Upstream inventories continued to accumulate, with significant inventory pressure," said Chen Weichang, head of the ferrous metals market at Zhonghui Futures. Futures Daily reporters learned from interviews that after three rounds of price reductions by steel mills, coking plant profits continued to decline, leading to a decrease in coke production. In terms of inventory, although coke inventories at ports and steel mills have decreased, independent coking enterprises still have relatively high inventories. After coking coal futures prices fell below the production costs of some coal mines, production has decreased. The weekly output of cleaned coal from 523 sample mines fell from a peak of 817,000 mt to 741,000 mt, but mine inventories still reached a new high, currently at 4.86 million mt. Has the coal supply-demand situation changed after the continuous price decline? In response, Liu Huifeng, chief researcher of ferrous metals at Donghai Futures, believes that the current supply-demand pattern in the coking coal market has not changed significantly. Raw coal production in the first four months of 2025 increased by 6.6% YoY, and coking cleaned coal production increased by 6.12% YoY, while pig iron production only increased by 0.8% YoY. Under relatively pessimistic demand expectations in the market, the inventory pressure of coking coal continues to be transmitted upstream. As of last weekend, the coking coal inventories of 523 coal mines nationwide rebounded to 4.8604 million mt, reaching a high level for the same period in the past five years and rebounding for nine consecutive weeks. "Currently, the daily pig iron production remains above 2.41 million mt, and steel mills' demand for raw materials is moderate. However, they are controlling procurement speeds and maintaining a low-inventory strategy. Currently, the overall supply and demand of coal and coke are still loose, with significant pressure on upstream sales," said Chen Weichang. It should be noted that recently, coking coal prices have fallen below the production cost line of some high-cost coal mines, leading some mines to start cutting production. As of last weekend, the daily output of coking cleaned coal from 523 coal mines nationwide was 740,600 mt, a decrease of 76,300 mt YoY. Meanwhile, affected by the inverted import coal prices, coking coal imports in the first four months decreased by 1.24 million mt YoY. "Production cuts by coal mines are not enough to reverse the current supply-demand imbalance in the coking coal market."Liu Huifeng said. According to Chen Weichang, influenced by stricter safety supervision and environmental protection policies, the production of coking coal in the main producing areas has been declining continuously in recent times and is currently lower than that of the same period last year. However, there have been no widespread production restrictions or production cuts policies implemented so far, and the sustainability of the production decline still needs to be observed. There is an expectation for a fourth round of price reductions for coke, and procurement in the spot market is relatively cautious. Looking ahead, Chen Weichang believes that coking coal prices have seen a rebound recently. From the perspective of delivery factors, the current warrant cost is around 830 yuan/mt. Given that it is difficult to quickly reduce the inventories of independent coking enterprises and coking coal mines, the relatively loose state of supply and demand for coal and coke is unlikely to change. It is expected that the rebound in futures prices will be limited, and in the medium term, there is still a need to be vigilant about the risk of further price declines. "After the price of the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell to around 700 yuan/mt, there was a phased rebound. This was mainly because the futures market was trading at a significant discount at that time. In the short term, with the intensification of the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices have risen sharply. Historically, there has been a relatively good positive correlation between crude oil and coal prices. Therefore, the recent phased rebound in coking coal prices may continue, but the pattern of supply-demand imbalance has not changed, so the rebound may end at any time," Liu Huifeng said.

[China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association: Overall Weakness in Coal Consumption Since April] The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association released the operation status of China's coal market since April 2025: Since April, China's coal capacity has continued to be released, coal production has maintained growth, coal imports have continued to decline, and coal supply has been relatively sufficient. Overall, coal consumption has been weak, with coal inventories across society remaining at historically high levels. The supply and demand of coal have been relatively loose, coal prices have continued to fall, and the economic benefits of the industry have declined significantly.

[China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association: Overall Weak Coal Consumption Since April] The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association released the operation status of China's coal market since April 2025: Since April, China's coal capacity has continued to be released, coal production has maintained growth, coal imports have continued to decline, and coal supply has been relatively sufficient. Overall coal consumption has been weak, coal inventories across society have remained at historically high levels, coal supply and demand have been relatively loose, coal prices have continued to fall, and the industry's economic benefits have declined significantly.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in April 2025, China imported 13,742.8 mt of nutshell charcoal, representing a 39% MoM increase and an 8% YoY decrease. The average import price of nutshell charcoal in April was $549.46/mt. In March, the average import price was $492.4/mt, indicating a 12% MoM increase in the average import price per mt of nutshell charcoal.

Reuters quoted Sandeep Poundrik, Secretary of India's Ministry of Steel, as saying on April 25 that amid the increase in steel production capacity and the limited supply of coking coal, a key raw material for steelmaking, India would accelerate coking coal imports. He stated that by 2030, India's coking coal imports would rise from the current approximately 58 million mt to 160 million mt. According to data from India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the country imported a cumulative 56.9011 million mt of coking coal in 2024, up 0.64% YoY. Of this, 45% of imports came from Australia, but imports from Australia decreased by 10.80% YoY. Poundrik had earlier stated earlier last week that India was on track to achieve its goal of expanding steel production capacity to 300 million mt by 2030. Reuters reported that in the 2025 fiscal year, India's steel production was 151.1 million mt, with a total steelmaking capacity of 200 million mt.

On April 24, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for accelerating the mining of undeveloped greenfield iron ore mines to increase domestic steel production. In his video address at the "India Steel 2025" event, Modi emphasized that the steel industry needs to unite to build a "resilient, revolutionary, and steel-strong India.

The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US will have a short-term positive impact on China's coking coal market, but the long-term impact will be limited. In summary, China is a net importer of coking coal. From the perspective of import trading partners, the US is not a major trading partner for China's coking coal imports, and the US coking coal share can be quickly replaced by domestic coal sources and other advantageous import sources such as Australia. Therefore, the mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US will have a short-term positive impact on China's coking coal market, but the long-term impact will be limited.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14 showed that China's coal imports in March 2025 reached 38.732 million mt, a decrease of 2.647 million mt YoY from 41.379 million mt in the same period last year, down 6.40%. Imports in March increased by 4.372 million mt MoM from 34.36 million mt in February, up 12.72%. The YoY decline in coal imports may help stabilize coal prices.

Macro News 1. The Central Peripheral Work Conference was held in Beijing from April 8 to 9. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended the meeting and delivered an important speech. The meeting emphasized the need to build a community with a shared future with neighboring countries, consolidate strategic mutual trust, support regional countries in stabilizing their own development paths, and properly manage contradictions and differences; deepen development integration, build a high-level interconnected network, and strengthen cooperation in the industry chain and supply chain. 2. The State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "China's Position on Several Issues in China-US Economic and Trade Relations" on April 9, clarifying the facts of China-US economic and trade relations and expounding China's policy stance on related issues. The white paper is divided into six parts, in addition to the preface and conclusion: the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win; China has earnestly implemented the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement; the US has violated the obligations of the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement; China practices the concept of free trade and earnestly abides by WTO rules; unilateralism and protectionism harm the development of bilateral economic and trade relations; China and the US can resolve economic and trade differences through equal dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation. 3. The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement yesterday, stating that from 12:01 on April 10, the additional tariff rate on all imports originating from the US will be increased from 34% to 84%. 4. Li Qiang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium with economic experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 9. Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement more proactive and effective macro policies, push forward with the implementation of established policies as soon as possible, and introduce new incremental policies in a timely manner according to the situation, to effectively respond to the uncertainty of the external environment with powerful and effective policies. 5. EU member states voted on April 9 to pass the first round of countermeasures against US tariffs, imposing tariffs of up to 25% on a range of US products. This round of countermeasures mainly targets US steel and aluminum tariffs. 6. The Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement yesterday, adding 12 US entities to the export control list. The 12 US entities have engaged in activities that may endanger China's national security and interests, and the export of dual-use items to them is prohibited. The Ministry of Commerce also added six US companies, including Shield AI, to the unreliable entity list. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China has always handled the issue of the unreliable entity list prudently, targeting only a very small number of foreign entities that endanger China's national security in accordance with the law, and that foreign entities that are honest and law-abiding have no need to worry. 7. A relevant official from the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions on the white paper "China's Position on Several Issues in China-US Economic and Trade Relations". The Ministry of Commerce stated that if the US insists on further escalating economic and trade restrictions, China will accompany it to the end; China is willing to communicate with the US on important issues in the economic and trade field between the two countries and resolve their respective concerns through equal dialogue and consultation. 8. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference yesterday. A reporter asked about the US imposing a 104% tariff on China. Lin Jian said that China will continue to take resolute and forceful measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. A reporter asked how China would respond to the latest US tariffs on China. Lin Jian said that if the US really wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should adopt an attitude of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. If the US insists on waging a tariff war and trade war, China will accompany it to the end. Industry News 1. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US issuance of an administrative order to delay TikTok, stating that the Chinese government has always respected and protected the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, created a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized, and opposed practices that ignore the laws of the market economy, forcibly seize, and harm the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises. 2. Recently, the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium with listed companies controlled by municipal enterprises. The meeting pointed out that it supports high-quality listed companies in implementing industry chain integration and supports the further concentration of high-quality resources of municipal state-owned enterprises to controlled listed companies. The meeting required that state-owned shareholders increase their holdings of stocks in accordance with market principles and laws and regulations in a timely manner, and that listed companies with the conditions plan to implement stock repurchases to effectively maintain the market value of listed companies. 3. The Guangdong Transportation Industry Computing Power Center was inaugurated in Shaoguan City on April 9, marking a key progress in the construction of the digital foundation of the Guangdong transportation industry. The center is built according to the national A-level computer room standard, with 638 standard cabinets planned to be deployed, and 324 cabinets completed in the first phase. 4. On April 9, Shenzhen real estate agency Leyoujia, in cooperation with a new housing project Wealth City, launched the "trade-in" 3.0 version. It is understood that this event supports the participation of customers from different places, without restricting the city where the "old house" is located. At the same time, a "sell old" subsidy was also provided. 5. The China National Coal Association released the "2024 Annual Report on the Development of the Coal Industry". The report shows that the national raw coal production in 2024 reached 4.78 billion mt, up 1.2% YoY; coal imports were 543 million mt, up 14.4% YoY. The report analyzes that the supply and demand of the coal market this year will remain relatively balanced and shift to a looser state. 6. The official WeChat official account of the Organization Department of the Zhejiang Provincial Committee, "Zhejiang Zuzhi", released a post previewing the latest session of the artificial intelligence special training course. According to the preview, the course will start on the evening of the 10th, and Xingxing Wang, founder, CEO, and CTO of Unitree Technology, will share "The Current Situation and Development Trends of the Robotics Industry". Before Wang Xingxing, the heads or relevant responsible persons of the "Hangzhou Six Dragons" have been invited to give special lectures to Zhejiang cadres. 7. Recently, due to the deterioration of China-US economic and trade relations and the domestic security situation in the US, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reminded Chinese tourists to fully assess the risks of traveling to the US and to be cautious about heading to the US. 8. The Ministry of Commerce, the National Health Commission, and 12 other departments issued the "Special Action Plan to Promote Healthy Consumption". It mentioned vigorously developing the sports tourism industry and continuously increasing the supply of high-quality sports consumption. Accelerate the promotion and application of smart therapy technology and promote qualified artificial intelligence products to enter clinical trials. 9. The US state of Ohio passed a higher education bill, which includes negative clauses related to China, imposing restrictions on educational exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and US universities. The Ministry of Education reminded the majority of students studying abroad to make a safety risk assessment when choosing to study in relevant US states recently and to enhance their awareness of prevention. Company News 1. Midea Group announced that it repurchased 1.7203 million shares for the first time, involving 120 million yuan. 2. It was learned from China Huadian Corporation that the listed companies controlled by China Huadian will adhere to the establishment of a normalized stock repurchase and increase mechanism and promote the merger and reorganization of Huadian International. 3. Ganfeng Lithium announced that it plans to authorize the board of directors to repurchase the company's A-shares and H-shares. 4. Guotai Junan announced that it plans to repurchase 1 billion to 2 billion yuan of the company's A-shares. 5. China Galaxy announced that its Q1 net profit is expected to increase by 70%-90% YoY. 6. Zhongtian Technology announced that its controlling subsidiary won multiple domestic and overseas marine energy projects, with a total winning bid of 2.499 billion yuan. 7. Quectel announced that its Q1 net profit is expected to increase by about 265% YoY. 8. NationalChip announced that the new ultra-high-performance cloud security chip product based on RISC-V architecture multi-core CPU R&D has successfully passed internal testing. 9. Yankuang Energy announced that its controlling shareholder, Shandong Energy, promised not to actively reduce its holdings of the company's shares within 12 months and will increase its holdings at an opportune time to maintain stable market value. 10. Dongshan Precision announced that it plans to use self-raised funds to repurchase 100 million to 200 million yuan of the company's shares for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives. 11. Rongsheng Petrochemical announced that its controlling shareholder plans to increase its holdings of the company's shares by 1 billion to 2 billion yuan. 12. Nuotai Biotech announced that it has reached a strategic cooperation with Middle Eastern pharmaceutical company Julphar to supply semaglutide API. 13. Goertek announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase 500 million to 1 billion yuan of the company's shares. 14. Sichuan Changhong announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase 250 million to 500 million yuan of shares. 15. Zhongtai Securities announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase 300 million to 500 million yuan of the company's A-shares. 16. Shandong Hi-Speed announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase 200 million to 300 million yuan of the company's shares to reduce registered capital. 17. Weichai Power announced that the chairman proposed to repurchase 500 million to 1 billion yuan of the company's shares and cancel them. 18. Xunjiexing announced that it plans to acquire 100% equity of Shenzhen Jiazhi Hong Electronics Co., Ltd., and the stock will resume trading today. 19. Shandong Gold announced that its controlling shareholder and its concerted parties plan to increase their holdings of the company's shares by 500 million to 1 billion yuan. 20. Star-net Ruijie announced that its Q1 net profit is expected to increase by 212%-298% YoY. 21. Focus Media announced that it plans to acquire 100% equity of Xinchao Media, with a pre-estimated value of 8.3 billion yuan. 22. CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering announced that it received new orders of 12.502 billion yuan in Q1, completing 71.64% of the annual plan. Global Markets 1. US President Trump said that he has authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions. 2. The three major US stock indices closed sharply higher, with the Nasdaq up 12.16%, the largest single-day percentage gain since January 3, 2001, and the second-largest record gain; the S&P 500 up 9.52%, the largest single-day percentage gain since October 28, 2008; and the Dow up 7.87%. Large technology stocks rose sharply, with Tesla up more than 22%, Nvidia up more than 18%, and Apple up more than 15%. International oil prices rose sharply, with US oil and Brent crude futures settlement prices up more than 4%. International gold prices rose, with spot gold once breaking through $3,095, up 3.75%, the largest intraday gain since 2020. Investment Opportunity Reference 1. The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued opinions on the market value management of state-owned enterprises, and institutions said that it will deepen the revaluation of state-owned assets According to media reports, the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued several opinions on strengthening the market value management of state-controlled listed companies in our city. The "Opinions" support regulatory enterprises and listed companies in using various market value management policies and tools from six aspects: mergers and acquisitions, stock repurchase and increase, investor returns, incentive and restraint mechanisms, information disclosure, and investor relations management. Subsequently, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will focus on the implementation of the "Opinions", guide regulatory enterprises and listed companies in using market value management tools, actively respond to market concerns, protect investor interests, and promote the landing of a number of representative projects with market-oriented and law-based principles, demonstrating the exemplary and leading role of Shanghai's state-owned assets and enterprises. Market value management will deepen the revaluation of state-owned assets and help related main businesses to further grow and strengthen. CICC said that considering the important position of central and state-owned enterprises in the national economy and capital markets, in the context of deepening state-owned enterprise reform and capital market reform, the relevant systems around the market value management of central and state-owned enterprises are expected to continue to improve, and the motivation of central and state-owned enterprises to practice market value management is also expected to continue to strengthen. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the theme of market value management of central and state-owned enterprises. 2. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document to coordinate the promotion of the formulation of standards for emerging industries, and institutions said that the industry is in a period of rapid development According to media reports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the key points of industrial and information technology standardization work in 2025. The notice proposed to continuously improve the standard system construction of emerging industries and prospectively lay out future industry standard research. Improve the fifth-generation mobile communication (5G) standard system and promote the formulation of intelligent terminal standards such as 5G lightweight, 5G millimeter wave, and Tiantong satellite functions.Optimize and improve standards for new-generation information technologies such as cloud computing, big data, blockchain, and BeiDou navigation, coordinate the formulation of standards for basic general, key technologies, product services, industry applications, and security governance of new-generation information technologies, and help break through a batch of new-generation information technology application products for integrated applications. Jianghai Securities stated that currently, the global low-orbit satellite internet has formed a competitive landscape of "one superpower and multiple strong players." Driven by national policies, technological advancements, and market demand, the satellite internet industry is in a period of rapid development, with broad prospects for future growth, and continues to be optimistic about investment opportunities in this industry. In Q1, the import and export cargo volume of the China-Europe Railway Express increased by 4% YoY. In Q1 of this year, the import and export cargo volume of the Zhejiang China-Europe Railway Express reached 63,000 TEUs, up 4% YoY. Currently, the Zhejiang China-Europe Railway Express has opened 25 operating routes, covering more than 160 cities in over 50 countries and regions. In recent years, the advantages of the China-Europe Railway Express, such as convenience, speed, safety, stability, and green and low-carbon, have been continuously consolidated, making it a widely popular international public product, with the number of trains maintaining a strong growth trend. Data from the China State Railway Group shows that in 2024, the China-Europe Railway Express operated 19,392 trains, up 10.7% YoY, and carried 2,077,216 TEUs, up 9.2% YoY. By November 2024, the cumulative number of trains operated by the China-Europe Railway Express had exceeded 100,000. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's announcement in April to impose "reciprocal tariffs" globally, China and the EU face common trade pressures, and the necessity of cooperation between the two sides has significantly increased. Data from Eurostat shows that China and the EU are important trading partners, with bilateral trade exceeding 730 billion euros in 2024, supporting employment for about 3 million people in the EU and 6 million people in China. Former WTO Director-General Lamy pointed out that China and the EU should work together to revise and improve the rules. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated on the 8th that it will fully support and promote central state-owned enterprises and their publicly listed firms to take proactive actions, continuously increase the intensity of share buybacks and repurchases, effectively safeguard the rights and interests of all shareholders, continuously consolidate market confidence in listed companies, strive to enhance company value, and fully demonstrate the responsibility and commitment of central state-owned enterprises. On the same day, China Electronics Corporation announced that, based on confidence in the long-term positive outlook of the Chinese economy and firm optimism about the prospects of the capital market, it will promote the strengthening of market value management and high-quality development of its listed companies through measures such as repurchases, share buybacks, and technology mergers and acquisitions. Currently, China Electronics Corporation has formed an industrial layout covering the entire chain, including chip design (Phytium), operating systems (Kylin), and network security (Qi An Xin). The technology team of Zhongtai Securities pointed out that as a state-owned key enterprise directly managed by the central government and focused on the network information industry, China Electronics Corporation has actively promoted mixed-ownership reform in recent years, especially in key core assets, and the company possesses rich industrial resources and strong R&D capabilities, with a large number of high-quality core technology assets and targets. Under the background of encouraging listed companies to inject high-quality technology assets and deepening state-owned enterprise reform, it is expected to play a leading role.