​​​​​​​Falling nickel benchmarks, a fragmented overseas supply base and a Malaysian enforcement crackdown lift India's stainless scrap imports 11.4% while pushing the average import price down 6.6% in the 12 months to February 2026

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

[SMM Express] Recent developments across Northam Platinum, Sibanye-Stillwater and Southern Palladium indicate that South Africa's platinum group metals (PGM) producers are increasingly positioning chrome as a strategic co-product rather than merely a by-product, reflecting a broader shift across the Bushveld Complex. Northam recently reported record chrome concentrate production of 1.69 million mt in FY2026, up 17.4% year-on-year, while Sibanye-Stillwater plans to expand chrome production to 2.3 million mt/y by 2033 and Southern Palladium's Bengwenyama Project has nearly tripled projected chrome output through improved chromite recovery, underscoring chrome's growing contribution to project economics and revenue diversification. The trend is further reinforced by Merafe Resources' H1 2026 Trading Statement, in which the company expects significantly stronger interim earnings despite a 75% year-on-year decline in ferrochrome production, supported by higher commodity prices and increased sales volumes. SMM believes these developments point to a broader structural shift within South Africa's PGM sector, with producers increasingly leveraging chrome to strengthen earnings resilience, diversify revenue streams and enhance the long-term value of UG2 operations across the country's chromium value chain.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,473/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,311/mt Co. The MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 84-85, and the MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) were 92. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,859/mt Ni.

The stainless steel market in Chinese Taiwan is awaiting local mills’ August price announcements later this week. Rising nickel, chromium, molybdenum, copper and electricity costs are prompting mills to consider keeping prices unchanged or raising them slightly. However, weak end-user demand and subdued spot trading have led some sellers to lower offers to secure orders. Market participants said demand remains the key concern, while restocking activity may improve toward the end of the third quarter.

As of now, FOB prices for Indonesia MHP nickel are at $15,493/mt Ni, and FOB prices for Indonesia MHP cobalt are at $49,213/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stand at 85.5-86.5, and MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) are at 93. Indonesia high-grade nickel matte FOB prices are at $15,879/mt Ni.

[Bigger Logistics Reset Underway — Afrexim Loan, China-Backed Mega Financing and Reopened Mozambique Rail Line Reinforce Zimbabwe's Chrome Export Corridor] 1. NRZ is finalizing a US$115 million loan from Afreximbank to rehabilitate rail infrastructure and refurbish locomotives, announced in early June. 2. Government is exploring mineral-backed financing with China — including talks with China Railway — for an estimated US$34 billion national transport-and-logistics modernization plan, modelled on the DRC's Sicomines resource-for-infrastructure deal; Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube confirmed the discussions at the World Economic Forum in Dalian last month. 3. The Mozambique–Zimbabwe rail line has reopened after a four-month closure, alongside ongoing NRZ recapitalization under a three-phase turnaround strategy — measures that directly cut chrome and ferrochrome export lead times to Asian, European and American stainless-steel mills. 4. The Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe has singled out Zimasco and Afrochine (Tsingshan) to lead ferrochrome production growth, with both operators already running material volumes through the Maputo-bound rail network.

[Zimbabwe Taps Rail to Cut Chrome, Ferrochrome Road-Freight Load — New US$1.5M West Nicholson Siding Begins First Bulk-Mineral Shipments to Maputo] 1. Zimbabwe's Beitbridge Bulawayo Railway (BBR) commissioned a US$1.5 million transshipment rail siding at West Nicholson, Matabeleland South, on Monday — built in partnership with private operator Silvergill Logistics and state-owned National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ). 2. The siding is engineered to handle chrome, ferrochrome and other bulk minerals, moving output by rail to the Port of Maputo — the same corridor Zimasco already uses to ship ferrochrome from its Kwekwe smelters. 3. BBR General Manager Kumbulani Tendai Mabvura said the project is a declaration that "rail is back at the center of national logistics" for Zimbabwe's bulk minerals trade. 4. Cost relief: BBR and the Ministry of State for Matabeleland South frame the siding as easing pressure on the road network, cutting road-maintenance bills and truck congestion — costs that have been inflating landed prices of Zimbabwean chrome and ferrochrome. 5. Bulk-friendly shift: Rail is positioned as the safer, more efficient mode for bulk mineral freight, supporting Zimbabwe's push to scale ferrochrome output toward 1 million tonnes/year under the proposed Palm River project. 6. Timing: The siding opens as Zimbabwe's 2025 ferro-alloy sales rose 19% y/y to 433,293 tonnes (US$372 million, per MMCZ), even as chrome ore concentrate exports stagnated and revenue fell 12% — reinforcing rail as a national priority for chrome/ferrochrome tonnage.

[South Africa has introduced a range of measures to improve transport conditions at the Port of Durban, yet chromium ore shipments continue to suffer from congestion and corridor bottlenecks.] News report, July 22, 2026: According to public data, the operational improvements at the Port of Durban in South Africa have received new recognition this week, yet terminal congestion has re-emerged with severe delays on land transport corridors. Public statistics on vessel waiting times compiled in early July show that the vessel delay indicator at the Port of Durban has climbed to approximately four days, compared with roughly two days in the previous week. Delays at Richards Bay/Nkula Port, another major bulk mineral export gateway, remain at around five days. For chromium-related products, exporters of chrome ore and ferrochrome still need to set aside flexible transit lead times, particularly for cargo shipped via the Maputo corridor.

On July 20, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.