According to Eunews, the EU ferrosilicon market—crucial for stainless steel production—is facing a severe crisis driven by soaring energy costs rather than Chinese competition. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič clarified that recent safeguard investigations revealed no increase in Chinese imports, debunking claims of unfair trade practices. Instead, the primary threat to EU producers is unsustainable energy expenses. This situation, initially assessed in January, is now expected to worsen significantly. The recent outbreak of war in Iran and the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf are triggering massive energy price spikes, putting immense additional pressure on European ferrosilicon operations and the broader stainless steel supply chain.

According to EUROMETAL reports, the European automotive components sector faces mounting pressure from Chinese competition, rising imports, and stagnant growth. At the EUROMETAL Steel Day, Autoliv's Cosmin Bakai noted global light vehicle production will grow ~1.3% by 2030, but Europe remains weak. While Chinese automakers plan facilities in Europe, initial capacities (50,000-100,000 units) won't immediately drive major local steel demand. Crucially, component trade is outpacing vehicle trade; Chinese component imports to the EU doubled over three years to $8 billion. Meanwhile, $11 billion in EU component exports to the US face tariff pressures. Consequently, the short-to-medium-term outlook for European automotive steel demand remains bleak.

In light of the recent sharp decline in copper prices, SMM reports a noticeable deceleration in the global copper scrap trading trend. The rapid price correction has widened the bid-ask spread significantly, creating a sharp divergence in pricing expectations between market participants. Taking Bare Bright Copper as an example, overseas holders, seeking to hedge against the drop in absolute prices, have hiked their pricing coefficients to 99-99.5% of LME, a 1-percentage-point jump from 98-98.5% last week. Conversely, Chinese importers, constrained by domestic margin pressures, remain firm at the previous 98.5% coefficient. This "pricing mismatch" has hindered any consensus on coefficients, resulting in stagnant transaction activity across the board.

[SMM Steel] Mexico's Ministry of Economy (SE) has initiated an administrative review of anti-dumping (AD) duties on prestressed steel imports from China, Spain, and Portugal. Current duties, including US$1.02/kg for Chinese imports, remain in effect to protect domestic production from potential injury.

SMM, February 27: After the Chinese New Year, the tungsten market got off to a good start, re-entering an accelerated uptrend and repeatedly hitting new highs.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s top cobalt supplier (over 70% of global 2024 supply), imposed 2025 export bans/quotas, roiling cobalt prices. With large-scale exports unresumed, the U.S. launched "Project Vault" to secure critical minerals, adding DRC supply uncertainties and heightening geopolitical risks for Chinese cobalt procurement.

As China and the US implemented a series of tariff adjustment measures, US importers significantly increased their import orders from China this week. Data from multiple shipping companies and industry trackers showed that China's cargo volume to the US has rebounded significantly. Container bookings surged by 277% On Wednesday, Eastern Time, Vizion, a container tracking data software provider, stated that after China and the US reached a trade "truce," container shipping bookings from China to the US soared by nearly 300%. Ben Tracy, the company's Vice President of Strategic Business Development, revealed that in the seven days leading up to Wednesday, the average number of container shipping bookings from China to the US surged by 277%, reaching 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) , compared to an average of 5,709 TEUs in the seven days leading up to last Monday (May 5). On April 2, Trump announced plans to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese-made goods, leading to a sharp decline in container bookings by US importers. However, after the US and China reached a tariff agreement on Monday, US importers' bookings surged again. According to the joint statement issued by China and the US on April 2, within the next 90 days, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. Tracy said, "Now that there's this temporary truce, we're definitely starting to see a rebound in bookings." Shipping bookings surge Earlier that day, German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd stated that in the first three days of this week, the company's bookings on the US-China route increased by 50% MoM. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said, "I expect a surge in trade volume between China and the US, which is what we've already seen in the past few days." On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Ryan Petersen, the founder and CEO of freight forwarding company Flexport, posted on his X account, "Since the first day of the trade agreement, our ocean freight bookings from China to the US have increased by 35%. A significant backlog is imminent, and vessels (space) will soon be sold out." Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain at logistics company ITS Logistics, said, "My clients have pre-loaded thousands of containers in China, ready for shipment." He expects a further surge in container shipping volumes in the next four to six weeks.

At 20:30 Beijing time, the US will release its April CPI data. Although the US-China trade truce (both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115% within the next 90 days) has completely reshaped the macro landscape, rendering the before-and-after comparison of CPI data meaningless, the market may still react reflexively to the upcoming CPI data—even if it is just a brief fluctuation, followed by the "Trump roar" (Trump often posts comments after key data releases). Wall Street expects: April monthly overall CPI to record 0.3%, higher than the previous month's -0.1%; annual overall CPI to record 2.4%, unchanged from March. April core CPI monthly rate to record 0.3%, higher than March's 0.1%. Notably, the forecast range for the core CPI monthly rate is unusually wide, with a high of 0.6 and a low of 0.0%. April core CPI annual rate to record 2.4%, also unchanged from March. Most analysts believe that this CPI report will for the first time reflect the impact of last month's tariff measures , but since a large number of imported goods had already entered the US market before the new tariffs took effect, the actual impact may be limited. Bloomberg economist Anna Wong's team noted in a Monday report: " CPI categories heavily reliant on Chinese imports, such as toys, footwear, and clothing, may experience mild inflation. Retailers face pressure from a sharp drop in demand when passing on costs, although they will still try. If this effect dominates, the net impact of tariffs on inflation will be lower than widely expected." Economists are assessing the impact of the recent temporary reciprocal tariff reduction agreement reached between the US and China. Bloomberg Economics believes that the agreement may lead retailers to rush to restock inventory, causing short-term shortages of goods and thereby driving up consumer prices. Goods prices have been front-loaded Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, believes that the tariffs announced on April 2 will have a " minimal impact " on the CPI report, as goods in transit have been exempted, and businesses and consumers had already made early purchases at the beginning of the year to avoid tariffs. He added: "The US Fed and global investors will need more time to accurately assess the substantive impact of trade uncertainty on inflation." In terms of food, economists from Morgan Stanley and Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed out that egg prices have fallen significantly, a major driver of CPI food inflation in the first three months of the year, as the reduction in avian influenza cases has eased supply pressures. Signs of weak service consumption Economists and policymakers are closely monitoring service categories that reflect changes in discretionary spending. Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst, economists at Citigroup, noted that travel-related prices, such as airfares and car rentals, have fallen consecutively, with weak March data and a further pullback in April confirming the trend of cooling travel demand. Additionally, the housing category (including rent), which has the largest weight in the CPI, is expected to slow down after a strong increase in March. Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen emphasized: " Despite tariff disruptions, the gradual pullback in service inflation will still create conditions for the US Fed to resume easing policies in the second half of the year." Four Major Trends Goldman Sachs forecasts in its report that the overall CPI will rise 0.31% MoM, reflecting increases in food and energy prices (energy up 0.4% MoM, food up 0.3% MoM). The bank highlights four major trends expected in this month's report: Auto prices. Similar to Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs expects used car prices to fall 0.5% MoM in April, reflecting a decline in used car auction prices. The bank also expects new car prices to rise 0.1% MoM, reflecting a reduction in dealer sales promotions in April, possibly related to anticipated tariffs. Auto insurance costs. Goldman Sachs expects auto insurance prices to surge 0.7% MoM in April, reflecting an increase in premiums. Higher auto prices, repair costs, and medical and litigation costs have all put upward pressure on insurers to raise prices, but there is a significant lag in passing these premium increases on to consumers, partly because insurers must negotiate price hikes with state regulators. Currently, the gap between insurance premiums and costs has largely closed. Therefore, it is expected that the increase in the CPI's auto insurance cost category this year will sustainably return to pre-pandemic levels. Tariffs. This is the most significant point: Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to exert a mild upward pressure on categories particularly vulnerable to their impact, contributing +0.06 percentage points to the monthly core inflation rate. The bank expects that prices for clothing (+0.8%), furniture (+0.3%), education (+0.4%), and communications (+0.3%) may rise in April due to tariffs, and notes that there may also be some indirect price increases in the report as consumers purchase other goods (such as new cars and alcoholic beverages) in advance. Health insurance. The April CPI report will incorporate the semi-annual update of raw data for the health insurance component. Goldman Sachs expects that this update will lead to negative health insurance inflation over the next six months (with an expected monthly rate of -0.5% in April). The PCE index uses different raw data to measure health insurance, so this update will not affect PCE inflation. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs believes that tariffs will continue to hinder the progress of inflation returning to 2% unless investors see retailers, who previously stockpiled inventory in response to the US-China trade conflict, selling off their stockpiles. It is worth noting that they do not anticipate a 90-day truce agreement between the US and China. Goldman Sachs also expects that the monthly core CPI rate will be around 0.35% in the coming months. This forecast also reflects accelerated increases in most core goods categories, but will have limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the short term. In addition to the impact of tariffs, the bank expects that underlying trend inflation will decline further this year due to smaller contributions from automobiles, housing rentals, and the labour market. Goldman Sachs expects that by December 2025, the annual core CPI inflation rate will be +3.5%, and the annual core PCE rate will be +3.6%. Gold Technical Analysis Fxstreet analyst Dhwani Mehta stated that if CPI data unexpectedly rises, it will further strengthen market expectations for a renewed hawkish stance from the US Fed, thereby boosting the US dollar's gains and potentially exacerbating a new round of declines in gold. On the other hand, if US CPI growth unexpectedly slows, it may reignite market expectations for more than two interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year, providing support for gold. Technically, gold's daily closing price on Monday fell below the 21-day SMA, which was then at $3,313, opening up space for further declines. The 14-day RSI also closed below the midline for the first time since early April, turning bearish. The current RSI is hovering around the midline at 49, with bulls attempting to regain control. The focus now turns to tonight, and it remains to be seen whether higher-than-expected US CPI data will trigger a new round of declines in gold prices, pushing them towards the 50-day SMA at $3,145. Below, focus on the key support levels at the round number of $3,100 and the low of $3,072 on April 10. If the US CPI data unexpectedly weakens, gold prices may regain the 21-day SMA, which is currently at $3,311 and has shifted from support to resistance. If gold prices can stabilize above this level, they are expected to test the resistance of the downtrend line at $3,430 , which also serves as a phased resistance level. A sustained break above this level would open the door for gold prices to rise further towards the all-time high at $3,500 .

[Trump Team Seeks Tariff Cuts, Rare Earths Relief in China Talks] The Trump administration is preparing for weekend trade talks with China in Geneva, aiming to lower tariffs currently as high as 145% on Chinese imports to below 60%. Led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, the discussions are expected to be exploratory but may yield early reductions if progress is made. A key U.S. demand includes the easing of China’s export restrictions on rare earths, as industries face supply disruptions. Talks may also address fentanyl precursor exports from China. Despite the potential for modest de-escalation, experts note that even halving current tariffs would leave duties at historically high levels, likely continuing to weigh on the U.S. economy. According to Bloomberg Economics, current tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 2.9% and raise core inflation by 1.7% over several years. While both sides may be open to reciprocal tariff reductions, entrenched political positions and strategic mistrust suggest that a comprehensive deal remains a long-term challenge.

On Thursday, April 24, 2025, US President Donald Trump signaled a possible easing of trade tensions with China, boosting market sentiment. As a result, aluminium price has grown in India by 1.32 per cent to INR 234.5 (USD 2.75).