During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the steel industry continued to deepen supply-side structural reforms, persistently advanced capacity governance, and achieved a cumulative reduction in production exceeding 100 million mt. Recently, at the 13th Member Congress of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), CISA Chairman Zhao Minge made the above statement. He pointed out that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry's capacity governance efforts will focus on "controlling increments, optimizing stock, promoting mergers and reorganizations, and facilitating exits," adhering to market-oriented and rule-of-law principles, strictly blocking new capacity additions, smoothing exit channels for outdated capacity......

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director of the NBS's Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China's economy operated generally smoothly in May, with some indicators continuing to improve, new growth momentum expanding, and the trend of high-quality development persisting, demonstrating the strong resilience and vitality of China's economy. In May, influenced by factors such as the trade-in policy for consumer goods, market sales growth accelerated. Total retail sales of social consumer goods in May were up 6.4% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales grew by 5.2%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the period from January to April. The acceleration of consumption growth, particularly the expansion of service consumption, is also evident in its boost to related service industries. In May, the production index growth rates of the wholesale and retail industries, as well as the accommodation and catering industries, all accelerated compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, new growth drivers such as high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and the new energy industry continued to expand, effectively promoting industrial transformation and the stable operation of the economy.

According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten-day period of June 2025, the daily average production of pig iron by key steel enterprises was 1.963 million mt, up 2.6% MoM and down 1.3% YoY; the daily average production of crude steel was 2.159 million mt, up 3.2% MoM and down 4.0% YoY; the daily average production of steel products was 2.037 million mt, down 6.4% MoM and down 3.9% YoY. In the first ten-day period of June 2025, the inventory of steel products at key steel enterprises was 15.79 million mt, increasing by 490,000 mt or 3.2% MoM, decreasing by 270,000 mt or 1.7% compared to the same ten-day period of the previous month, and decreasing by 300,000 mt or 1.9% compared to the same ten-day period of the previous year.

China Reform Holdings Corporation Ltd. and China Chengtong Holdings Group Ltd., two state-owned capital operation companies, successfully issued 39.5 billion yuan of special bonds for steady growth and expanded investment in the interbank market on the 9th, further supporting central state-owned enterprises in strengthening their investments in the "implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas" and the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," and continuing to make efforts in areas such as major equipment upgrades and technological transformations, major scientific and technological innovations, and major strategic emerging industries. This is the second batch of special bonds successfully issued by the two central state-owned enterprises since they were approved to issue special bonds with a total scale of 500 billion yuan last year. This batch of special bonds consists of 23 billion yuan issued by China Reform Holdings Corporation Ltd. and 16.5 billion yuan issued by China Chengtong Holdings Group Ltd., both with a maturity of 10 years and a final coupon rate of 2.09%.

[China's stainless steel crude steel production reached 3.5168 million mt in April 2025] On May 29, the Stainless Steel Branch of the China Iron and Steel Association released the statistical data on China's mainland stainless steel crude steel production, exports, imports, and apparent consumption for April 2025. In April 2025, China's national stainless steel crude steel production reached 3.5168 million mt, unchanged MoM from March 2025, and up 44,600 mt YoY from April 2024, representing a 1.28% increase. Among them, the production of Cr-Ni stainless steel was 1.7729 million mt, down 41,600 mt MoM, a 2.29% decrease; the production of Cr-Mn stainless steel was 983,100 mt, down 8,600 mt MoM, a 0.86% decrease; the production of Cr stainless steel was 712,700 mt, up 43,400 mt YoY, a 6.48% increase; and the production of duplex stainless steel was 48,068 mt, up 9,136 mt YoY, a 23.47% increase.

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), in mid-May 2025, the inventory of steel products at key steel enterprises under statistical monitoring was 16.35 million mt. This represented an increase of 290,000 mt WoW, or 1.8%; an increase of 3.98 million mt compared to the beginning of the year, or 32.2%; a decrease of 350,000 mt compared to the same period of the previous month, or 2.1%; a decrease of 480,000 mt compared to the same period of the previous year, or 2.9%; and an increase of 90,000 mt compared to the same period two years ago, or 0.6%.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) held an information conference on the 29th. In Q1, the cumulative operating revenue of key statistical member steel enterprises reached 1,436 billion yuan, down 6.61% YoY; operating costs amounted to 1,350.5 billion yuan, down 7.73% YoY; and total profits stood at 21.583 billion yuan, up 1.08 times YoY.

The General Office of the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the 29th, stating that the Ministry of Finance plans to conduct the first renewal issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase II) for 2025. The renewed treasury bonds are 30-year fixed-rate coupon bonds, with a total face value of 71 billion yuan in competitive tendering, and no additional bidding will be conducted for Category A members. The coupon rate of the renewed treasury bonds remains the same as that of the previously issued treasury bonds of the same maturity, at 1.88%.

[CISA: 141 Enterprises Complete Ultra-Low Emission Retrofits Throughout the Entire Process, Involving Crude Steel Capacity of Approximately 591 Million mt] Jiang Wei, Vice President and Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), stated at an information conference held in Beijing on the 29th that as of April 20, 2025, a total of 189 steel enterprises had completed or partially completed ultra-low emission retrofits, as well as assessment and monitoring. Among them, 141 enterprises had completed ultra-low emission retrofits throughout the entire process, involving crude steel capacity of approximately 591 million mt.

Amid US tariff hikes, how various industries can better "go global" has drawn significant market attention. At the 14th China Steel Logistics Summit held recently, guests including Cai Jin, President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, and Guan Qingyou, Dean of Rujis Financial Research Institute and Vice President of the China Association for Private Economy Research, expressed optimism about domestic economic development regarding the impact of US tariffs. Guan Qingyou, Dean of Rujis Financial Research Institute and Vice President of the China Association for Private Economy Research, believes that while trade frictions bring challenges, they also create opportunities to spur companies to increase R&D investment, enhance resilience, and boost global competitiveness. All parties should seek new opportunities in this challenge. At the event, multiple attendees analyzed the current export situation across different industries. Overall, although the Chinese steel industry is indirectly impacted by US tariff policies, steel exports have continued to rise due to a "rush to export" effect. The PV industry, as one of the new three major export sectors, faced challenges such as a decline in export value and lower prices in 2024, but industry insiders remain optimistic about its development prospects. Steel Exports Surpass 10 Million mt in March, Crude Steel Production Up 4.6% Focusing on the steel industry, as the world's largest steel producer and exporter, China's steel industry has been indirectly affected by US tariff policies. According to customs data, China's direct steel exports to the US in 2024 were 890,000 mt, maintaining a level of 70-900,000 mt over the past five years, accounting for only 0.8% of total steel exports. Pan Fujie, Director of the Steel Logistics Committee of CFLP and CEO of Shanghai Zhuogang Chain, stated at the meeting that China's direct steel exports to the US are minimal, but the tariff impacts on third countries like Southeast Asia and Mexico may indirectly affect domestic steel exports. Regarding the current steel export situation, Chen Yiqian, Deputy Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Association, noted that under the US tariff hike, the "rush to export" effect is evident. Chen revealed that in March, China's steel exports once again exceeded 10 million mt, reaching 10.456 million mt, up 5.7% YoY. Data shows that from January to March, cumulative steel exports reached 27.429 million mt, up 6.3% YoY, outperforming the same period last year. Zuo Geng, Chief Economist at Minmetals Economic Research Institute, believes that Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are essential routes for China's steel industry to "venture westward." "The huge domestic demand and the advantage of the entire industry chain, combined with the application of new quality productive forces, are the greatest advantages for China to win in international competition and go global." For the outlook of the steel industry, Chen Yiqian stated that from the supply side, crude steel production in Q1 2025 slightly increased by 0.6% YoY, with a significant 4.6% increase in March. This indicates that companies still have a strong impulse to expand production when their operating benefits improve slightly. "We must maintain strategic resolve and avoid falling into the vicious cycle of increasing production whenever steel prices rise, leading to losses, and further production exacerbating those losses." New PV Installations Expected to Remain High, Green Energy Transition Continues In addition to the steel industry, the PV industry, as one of the new three major export sectors, saw a decline in product export value, but industry insiders remain optimistic about its development prospects. Wang Shuang, Director of Membership Services at the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and Deputy Secretary General of the Photovoltaic Building Committee, revealed that in 2024, PV product export value continued to decline, with mixed results in export volumes across different segments. The export value of PV products decreased to 32 billion US dollars in 2024, down more than 33% YoY, marking two consecutive years of decline. Product prices also continued to fall, with module export prices dropping by more than 50% in 2024, following a 30% drop in 2023. Monthly module export values were significantly lower than in 2023. In 2024, both prices and output values in the PV industry declined to varying degrees. Wang Shuang believes that the PV industry is currently in a difficult adjustment period and needs to strictly control downstream applications selling below cost. According to Wang Shuang's analysis, polysilicon prices showed a rapid downward trend in H1 2024, stabilizing in H2. Wafer prices rapidly declined in H1 2024, then first decreased and later rebounded in H2, with some recovery in 2025. Battery prices generally followed the upstream trends in 2024, with a slight rebound after 2025. Due to continuously declining prices, the output value of the PV manufacturing sector has shown a downward trend. Wang Shuang stated that from the manufacturing perspective, the YoY growth rate of production from polysilicon to modules was 10%, but this growth rate is significantly lower compared to 2023, which saw a growth rate exceeding 60%. Although export volumes have increased, the growth rate has slowed. On the application side, China's new PV installations reached 277 GW, up 28% YoY. While the YoY growth rate has increased, it has been declining since 2023. The segment with the highest growth rate is polysilicon, despite an increase in production, it has accumulated some inventory. Wang Shuang remains optimistic about the future development of the PV market. She expects that in 2025, global new PV installations will grow by more than 10%, with the global PV market installation scale reaching between 531 GW and 583 GW. "In terms of policy, large-scale wind and solar power projects are less affected by new policies, and the industry's major policies clearly follow the 'new-old demarcation' principle with a grace period. Additionally, the overall electricity demand continues to grow steadily, and the green energy transition process is ongoing," said Wang Shuang.