SMM, July 1: On July 1, the spot price of titanium dioxide in China fell for a second consecutive day, with the spot market and the secondary market showing a clear divergence. After an earlier correction, the titanium dioxide concept sector rallied for two straight days. As of the market close that day, the titanium dioxide concept index rose 4.85%, with individual stocks performing strongly: Jinputai Titanium hit the daily limit up, while Guocheng Mining, Anning Co., Zhenhua Chemical, and Vanadium Titanium Co. all gained over 6%. The spot market weakness reflects subdued downstream procurement sentiment in China, but capital in the stock market is trading on the logic of forward-looking improvement repair: expectations of tightening supply in July due to production cuts and maintenance, the realization of overseas price hikes, low downstream inventory restocking expectations together provided support, while some market capital inflows helped lift the entire sector. Spot Market Spot market side, high-priced sulphuric acid raw materials provided rigid support for titanium dioxide prices, but downstream end-use demand continued to weaken, with thin trading sentiment in the market, and spot titanium dioxide offers fell for the second consecutive day. According to SMM data, on July 1, SMM quoted rutile titanium dioxide spot prices at 14,500–16,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 15,500 yuan/mt, down 1.59% from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 13,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, rutile titanium dioxide has risen by 2,000 yuan/mt this year, an increase of 14.81%. Fundamental dimensions show a divergent picture between supply and demand: Supply side: June titanium dioxide production edged down MoM. Export side: According to customs data, China exported 152,800 mt of titanium dioxide in May 2026, down 21.05% MoM, with cumulative growth up 12.55% YoY. Looking ahead, summer concentrated maintenance coupled with high production cost pressure are likely to lead to significant production cuts across the industry, tightening overall market supply. Demand side currently remains focused on destocking, and the wait-and-see sentiment downstream is unlikely to dissipate quickly amid a gradual spot price decline; however, raw material inventories in the coatings and plastics industries are low, with restocking expectations later on. On balance, the titanium dioxide market in July is highly likely to operate in a pattern of both weak supply and demand, with short-term prices expected to mainly move sideways. Recommended Reading:

The European Union has drastically reduced its steel import quota cap by 12 million tonnes, slashing the total limit from 30.5 million tonnes to 18.3 million tonnes. This policy shift heavily impacts Turkey, cutting its hot-rolled coil (HRC) allocation by approximately 60% to 642,295 tonnes and rebar by over 36% to 239,676 tonnes. Additionally, the restriction alters global supply dynamics, forcing around 8.5 million tonnes of East Asian steel to find alternative global markets annually. While European steel prices are expected to rise briefly following the July 1 customs clearance, weak summer demand will likely cap these gains. In the scrap market, tight European domestic supply has pushed dockside delivery prices to €275/tonne, with German delivered prices sitting €10 to €15/tonne higher than Netherlands dockside rates; however, weakened Turkish steel sales will ultimately exert dominant downward pressure on the market. Meanwhile, US export prices have fallen by $30/tonne and US East Coast dockside prices dropped by $15 to $20/gross ton. Although two major Turkish mills temporarily stabilized import prices by heavily restocking 16 cargoes at higher rates, a subsequent purchasing pause is expected to trigger further downward adjustments.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Prices Pull Back on Macro Headwinds, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Weaken According to SMM on July 1, SS futures moved in a downward, consolidating trend. Pressured by rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and the continued decline in SHFE nickel, SS futures fell in tandem. By the midday close, the most-traded SS contract had settled at 14,590 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the generally cautious market sentiment was driven by both the weakness in SS futures and the disturbance from Indonesian policies. Although traders showed a strong willingness to sell, the sluggish transaction scenario remained unchanged. The most-traded SS futures contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was quoted at 14,550 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood in the range of 470-970 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the average prices for cold-rolled unedged 304/2B coil were flat in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; quotations for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi were also flat; and the average prices for cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices were in the doldrums. Macro headwinds outside China, coupled with industrial sentiment disturbance, intensified market pessimism, fully highlighting the off-season fundamentals. The overall picture showed that macro factors suppressed the futures, off-season demand weakened, traders cut prices to reduce inventory, supply contraction provided some support to inventory levels, and steel mill profits shrank. Futures were dragged lower by monetary policies and raw material rumors. Spots maintained resilience relying on steel mills holding prices firm, but terminal transactions were sluggish, and the overall market …

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, today was the first trading day of July, a new monthly procurement cycle began, downstream enterprises’ restocking demand at the beginning of the month was released to some extent, and both buying and selling sentiment rebounded markedly, lifting market trading activity. Supplier side, after low-priced cargoes dwindled, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm became evident, with the premium for high-quality copper staying at a high of 50-80 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread was near parity, limiting suppliers’ delivery profits from holding positions, weakening their willingness to sell at low prices, and providing support for spot discounts. Overall, driven by the release of month-start restocking demand, buying interest spurred by low copper prices, and suppliers’ resolve to hold prices firm, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract tomorrow are expected to edge up.

On July 1, the average warrant price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $71/mt ($67-75/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt to $70/mt ($65-75/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $2/mt to $43/mt ($39-47/mt), with quotes referring to cargoes arriving from early to mid-July. Downstream inquiry activity was moderate, while suppliers had limited cargoes on hand, offers were relatively firm, and divergences existed between buyers and sellers, leading to relatively few transactions. It was heard that a small number of deals for EQ B/L cargoes arriving from July to August were done at $45-50/mt, while August registered warrants were quoted at $72-80/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] AD Ports Group and Emirates Global Aluminium will jointly invest AED 84 million (US$22.9 million) to upgrade EGA’s dedicated berth at Khalifa Port. The multi-phase project will enable the berth to accommodate Newcastlemax dry bulk vessels, which can carry 15–20% more cargo than the Capesize vessels currently used. Upon completion by August 2028, the upgraded berth is expected to handle approximately 8 million tonnes of bulk cargo annually, enhancing raw material logistics efficiency and supply chain resilience for EGA’s aluminium operations.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Silver Prices, Consolidation; Spot Silver Parity Transactions Cautious] SMM reported on July 1st: The US Fed's hawkish remarks pushed up rate hike expectations, and silver prices pulled back after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the month, spot silver transactions were sluggish, with downstream participants mainly in a wait-and-see mood. Quotations remained at parity to a small premium.

SMM Morning Report: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,383.5/mt. Early in the session, amid wild swings, it touched a low of $13,334/mt, before the center of copper prices shifted upward sharply to reach a high of $13,433/mt. It then drifted lower to finally close at $13,380/mt, up 0.27%. Trading volume was 17,000 lots, and open interest was 245,000 lots, down 1,684 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,870 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it dipped to 102,640 yuan/mt, then the price center shifted higher to touch a high of 103,420 yuan/mt, before drifting lower, moving sideways, and finally closing at 102,880 yuan/mt, up 0.38%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest 154,000 lots, down 1,382 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. In initial trading, prices consolidated repeatedly, hitting an intraday high of $1,898/mt. Subsequently, the bulls’ upward momentum faded, and prices drifted lower. During the European session, the decline accelerated, with prices touching a low of $1,871/mt. Towards the end of the session, prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, eventually settling at $1,872/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down $20.5/mt, a decline of 1.08%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt in early trading, the bulls lacked momentum, and bears entered to push prices lower. The price continued to pull back, hitting a low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, some buying support led to a minor rebound, and it eventually settled at 15,975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest saw a slight increase of 238 lots. The trend was a retreat after a rapid rise, showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Trump disclosed a 927-page fundraising financial report exceeding $1 billion. The US Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is still too high and may require considering interest rate hikes. Japan stated that no intervention was made in the foreign exchange market from April 28 to May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. An MIIT official: Step up efforts in tackling key materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory. Spot fundamentals: The SHFE lead center shifted further downward, and in early trading it once briefly broke below the 16,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers showed widening divergence in selling, with some raising their offer premiums, while others kept selling at parity. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters also diverged, with regional price spreads narrowing. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, and quotations were scarce. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few at premiums of 100 yuan/mt, but there were also some discounted cargoes. Today was the last trading day of end-June, and downstream enterprises showed pronounced risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment. Some were looking to buy at lower prices on demand, and trading activity in the spot order market improved slightly. Inventory: As of June 30, LME lead inventory increased by 375 mt to 297,375 mt. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. Lead Price Forecast Today: Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to weigh on lead prices from a macro perspective; although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the Q2 consumption off-season outside China brought demand-side bearishness. China's primary smelters cut production slightly due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters' operating rates declined, dragged by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, resulting in a market with weak supply and demand. Downstream maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only making on-demand purchases and buying the dip. In the short term, lead prices are expected to consolidate largely in the doldrums.

[SMM Morning Meeting Note: LME Zinc Sees a Large Bullish Candlestick, Daily Candlestick Center Rises] Last night, LME zinc recorded a large bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support. The US dollar index first rose then fell, and inventories outside China continued to decline, supporting LME zinc's center to edge up. Last night, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support from below and the middle band acting as resistance. Currently, domestic TC is low, and China's zinc ingot production in July is expected to continue to decline, supporting SHFE zinc to rise. However, end-use consumption limits the upside of prices.