Alcoa has signed a gas offtake agreement with Woodside Energy to supply a total of 31.1 petajoules of natural gas to its Western Australian alumina refineries from 2027 to 2030. The agreement strengthens near-term energy security for Alcoa's operations while supporting its long-term energy strategy, including gas supply beyond 2030 and greater integration of renewable energy. Alcoa employs around 4,000 people in Western Australia, and its gas-powered alumina refineries are among the lowest-carbon alumina refineries globally. The alumina produced at these facilities is used as the primary raw material for aluminium production.

The UK Government is strengthening its Critical Minerals Strategy by investing in domestic extraction, processing, recycling and supply chain development to enhance resource security and economic resilience. The Aluminum Federation (ALFED) welcomed the move, noting that aluminum was officially designated as both a Critical Mineral and a Growth Mineral in 2024 under the UK's Vision 2035 framework. ALFED urged policymakers to place greater emphasis on aluminum recycling, remelting, sorting and supply security advanced processing to strengthen domestic supply chains and promote circular manufacturing. The federation highlighted that recycled aluminum can be reused indefinitely while requiring only around 5% of the energy needed to produce primary aluminum, making it a key material for low-carbon manufacturing and long-ter.

Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) has officially inaugurated its aluminum recycling plant in Al Taweelah, Abu Dhabi, with an annual production capacity of 185,000 tonnes, making it the largest recycling facility in the UAE. The plant processes post-consumer and selected pre-consumer aluminum scrap into low-carbon premium billets and T-bars under the RevivAL brand, while also producing recycled products blended with EGA's solar-powered CelestiAL and nuclear-powered MinimAL aluminum. Commercial production began in February 2026, with full ramp-up expected within six months depending on scrap availability. Including this project and a planned acquisition in Italy, EGA's global aluminum recycling capacity has exceeded 400,000 tonnes per year, with another 200,000 tonnes under development in Europe and the US.

Aluminum scrap is rapidly emerging as a strategic resource as the global industry accelerates its transition toward low-carbon production. Secondary aluminum requires only around 5% of the energy needed for primary production, making recycled metal increasingly attractive for both economic and environmental reasons. However, tightening scrap availability has intensified global competition. Europe is estimated to require an additional 1 million tones of aluminum scrap to meet its circular economy goals, while China has increased scrap imports and India is seeking to secure overseas supply amid concerns over potential EU export restrictions. At the same time, major investments in recycling capacity, together with carbon policies such as the EU's CBAM, are reinforcing the importance of recycled aluminum. Industry observers believe future competitiveness will increasingly depend on access to scrap resources, recycling efficiency and low-carbon supply chains.

[Destocking Accelerates to Provide Support, Export Concerns Limit Rebound Room] The US Fed's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation has been somewhat volatile but shows no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,269.5/mt. It dipped to a low of $13,250/mt during wild swings in early trading, then the center of copper prices drifted higher and rose to $13,378/mt near the session's end, finally closing at $13,322/mt, up 0.05%. Trading volume reached 19,100 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, down 1,285 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,240 yuan/mt, immediately dipped to 102,020 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices moved steadily upward and reached a high of 102,930 yuan/mt near the session's end, finally closing at 102,740 yuan/mt, up 1.16%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest stood at 156,000 lots, down 3,193 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction.

[SMM Tin Morning Report: Rate Hike Expectations Surge, Heavily Hitting Non-Ferrous Metals. SHFE Tin Rebound Aborts, Returning to 390,000 for a Tug-of-War.]

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Dollar Index Continues to Slide, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3434.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, prices weakened and dipped to $3387/mt. Subsequently, bears reduced positions, driving the futures to rebound continuously, with prices steadily rising above the daily average line. At the end of the session, it surged to a high of $3503.5/mt, finally closed up at $3500/mt, up $62/mt, or 1.80%. Trading volume increased to 106,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 297 lots to 261,000 lots.

SMM June 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday’s overnight session saw nearly all base metals on the domestic market rise. SHFE zinc gained 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.81%, and SHFE tin advanced 1.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.36%. SHFE lead dipped 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract climbed 0.64%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 1.66%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw mostly gains in ferrous metals. Stainless steel added 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar slipped 0.1%. Hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract gained 1.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.21%. Last Friday’s overnight session in overseas metals saw broad gains for LME base metals. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, while LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc gained 1.8%. LME tin advanced 1.69%. LME nickel dipped 0.36%. Last Friday’s overnight session in precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver gained 1.37%, while COMEX silver fell for a seventh straight week, down 10.79% for the week. Last Friday’s overnight session saw the most-traded SHFE gold contract rise 1.34%, but SHFE gold declined on a weekly basis, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 2.61%, while SHFE silver declined on a weekly basis, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks, particularly the US Fed, will tighten policy to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, combined with a more hawkish Fed stance, has led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting under new Fed Chair Walsh struck a “hawkish” tone, with the central bank under his leadership having the capacity to either “drive or suppress” the gold market. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which an eventual rebound in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds rotate out of precious metals and into other assets. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, which has created room for re-entry into precious metals and could drive a price rebound, but a significant macro event may be needed to reignite investor interest in gold. Spot gold prices are forecast to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but the average price is expected to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, followed by yearly declines through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast to $4,300 from $4,400. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 7:46 a.m. on June 27, closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January–May, with the electronics sector providing significant support] Data from the NBS showed that total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,143.96 billion yuan in January–May, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street CN APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve Work Related to Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, and State Taxation Administration have issued a notice on further improving the collection of mineral rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that late payment penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected starting August 1, 2026. If a mining rights holder fails to pay the mineral rights transfer proceeds in full and on time, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged from the date of default, with the total penalty not exceeding the principal amount owed. Penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will be recorded under the mineral rights transfer proceeds category and shared between central and local governments according to the same proportion as mineral rights transfer proceeds. Late payment penalties that have already accrued before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid in accordance with previous regulations, and penalty charges will not apply. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.1% last Friday, closing at 101.36. On a weekly basis, the dollar index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. US Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower as oil prices declined and the market reassessed the US interest rate outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the chance of a second hike has dropped to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations cool. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released at 10 a.m. US Eastern Time (10 p.m. Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49. (Jinshi Data APP) Reuters Poll: 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists who held this view in the early June survey. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a report that the recent rebound in the US dollar appears somewhat overextended and lacks the support needed to break out of the trading range of the past year. The Fed revised its interest rate projections upward at last week's meeting and explicitly focused on inflation. This led to a significant rise in inflation-adjusted real yields and eased concerns about political pressure for rate cuts, thereby boosting the dollar. However, this move now appears largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial list of candidates failed to yield a final selection, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has now lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivering a speech; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra through July 1; the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference taking place from June 29 to 30; ECB President Lagarde speaking in Sintra; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; the US and Iran holding technical negotiations (to be confirmed); Fed Chairman Walsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking at the ECB Forum; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; and a new round of domestic refined oil product price adjustments opening in China. It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-NYSE was closed for the US Independence Day holiday; trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday; trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday. In crude oil: Both oil futures fell in overnight trading last Friday, with US oil dropping 2.34% and Brent oil dropping 2.52%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures recorded a three-week losing streak, falling 7.4% for the week; Brent oil futures also fell for a third straight week, dropping 8.06% for the week. Brent spot crude oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and the near-month contracts exhibited a contango structure—where near-term prices are lower than those further out—for seven consecutive days, reflecting a temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, indicated that oil prices had "dropped too fast, too furiously," the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was still fraught with variables, so fluctuations were expected to persist. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, pointed out that Iran had begun a show of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some cargo ships had altered their routes, and the inventory overhang in the Gulf region was gradually flowing into the market. He believed that while the probability of a significant near-term price rise in crude oil was limited, the basis for a further substantial drop from current prices was equally insufficient. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rig additions recorded the largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

On June 26, at the hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) with title sponsorship from Guangxi Yusheng Germanium High-Tech Co., Ltd., Ou Haiguang, Chairman of Lianzhou Tuosheng New Energy Co., Ltd., Qingyuan, Guangdong, shared “The Development and Application of Selenium.” I. Global Selenium Market Overview The global selenium market exhibits a combination of steady overall growth and rapid structural upgrading. Global Selenium Market Characteristics The global selenium market presents the dual characteristic of “steady overall volume and structural upgrading.” Growth in traditional sectors is slowing, while high-value-added niche segments show strong potential. ► Overall Market: Moderate Growth It introduced the global selenium market size in 2025 and future compound annual growth rate, among other aspects. ► High-End Market: Rapid Expansion High-purity selenium used in electronics, semiconductors, and solid-state batteries is the core growth driver. The global high-purity selenium market reached $1.8 billion in 2023 and is expected to exceed $3.5 billion by 2030, with a strong CAGR of 10%. Selenium is a key material supporting the development of high-tech industries It is a fundamental material for developing new materials, new devices, and new consumer goods (pharmaceuticals, agriculture, food). Demand for selenium from military, new energy, and medical & health sectors is increasing daily. Ultra-high-purity rare and scattered metals have been designated as key national strategic emerging industries under the “Strategic Research on New Materials Powering the Nation by 2035” (2020). High-purity selenium was included by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in the “Catalogue for the Guidance of Key Products and Services in Strategic Emerging Industries” issued in Announcement No. 1 (2017). The EU identified selenium as a critical raw material for strategic low-carbon energy technologies (2020). Price Trend Review and Forecast First, it reviewed the selenium price trend in recent years. ► Future Trend Forecast, 2026-2027 The global economic slowdown is weighing on the profitability and operating rates of traditional selenium-consuming industries such as glass, ceramics, and pigments, causing prices of ordinary industrial-grade selenium products to continue falling under pressure. However, high-purity, customized high-end selenium products used in PV, electronics, and other sectors are seeing price support due to high technical barriers and scarce supply, with the market showing a clear divergence in price trends. ► Market Insight: Supply-Demand Pattern Driving Divergence As demand growth in traditional sectors such as PV glass slows, prices of basic products are heavily influenced by capacity. However, the technological barriers in high-value-added fields such as infrared, electronics, and solid-state batteries will support the price resilience of high-end selenium products, making them the core growth driver for future corporate profits. II. In-Depth Analysis of China’s Selenium Industry China is the global center for selenium production and supply, and its industry development trends have a decisive impact on the global market. Production and Supply: The World’s Core Producing Region China is the global center for selenium production and supply, accounting for nearly half of the world’s output, which continues to grow steadily. ► Production Scale and Growth: In 2025, China’s primary selenium production reached 2,030 mt (up 12% YoY), accounting for nearly half of the global total. The growth momentum came from the expansion of domestic copper smelters and their increased focus on the comprehensive recovery of rare and precious metals. ► Core Producing Region Distribution: Influenced by the layout of the copper smelting industry, China’s selenium is primarily produced in four provinces: Yunnan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Hubei. The high degree of synergy between resources and the processing industry has formed a stable supply chain cluster. ► Industry Leader Landscape: Top-tier players such as Jiangxi Copper Corporation, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Yunnan Copper, and China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals dominate production and are actively extending their reach into downstream deep processing, continuously refining their industry chain layout. ► Future Production Forecast: Production is expected to maintain an upward trend: it is projected to reach 2,165 mt in 2026 and further increase to 2,340 mt in 2027, continuously solidifying its core global supply position. Consumption Structure and Trends: Replacing Old Growth Drivers with New Ones ► Changes in China’s selenium consumption structure are a microcosm of global trends, with emerging applications rapidly on the rise. ● Metallurgy (32%): A traditional mainstay field, with relatively stable demand. ● Flat Glass (24%): Driven directly by the rapid development of the PV industry, maintaining solid growth. ● Agricultural and Livestock Health (21%): A beneficiary of the upgrade in health consumption, it has become an important growth point. ● Ceramics and Chemicals (13%): A traditional, low-end application affected by environmental protection policies and alternative technologies, with demand continuing to shrink. ★ Electronics, Infrared, and PV (8%): The fastest-growing segment and the core new momentum driving the industry’s long-term development. Trade Pattern: From Net Importer to Near-Balance China’s selenium trade pattern has undergone a historic transformation, gradually achieving self-sufficiency and control over its resource supply and demand. ► Historic Transformation: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern In the past, as the world’s major selenium consumer, China was in a state of net imports for a long time. In recent years, thanks to the steady growth of domestic primary selenium smelting capacity and significant advances in recovery technologies for secondary resources like copper and selenium scrap, China’s reliance on selenium from outside China has dropped sharply, achieving a fundamental optimization of its trade structure. ► Key Milestone: 2025 Trade Data In 2025, China's selenium trade achieved a historic breakthrough: both imports and exports totaled 728 mt, remaining basically flat. This data marks China's successful shift away from a passive "resource-importing" model, achieving basic self-sufficiency in selenium supply and demonstrating strong risk resilience. ► Future Trend: Moving Toward Net Exporter Status Driven by both production growth and technological strengths, China is expected to continue expanding its selenium resource production scale and technology exports in the coming years. Leveraging its complete industry chain support and cost advantages, China is poised to gradually complete its transformation from a "net importer" to a "net exporter," further enhancing its discourse power in global selenium trade. ► Policy Support: Export Promotion, Brand Certification & Subsidies To support domestic superior resource products in international competition, the nation continues to implement industrial support policies. 1. High-purity selenium and selenium compound targets are included in the new materials export credit insurance support categories. 2. Key equipment imports for high-purity selenium compound synthesis and monocrystalline production are exempted from customs duties and import-stage VAT. This policy effectively strengthens the competitiveness of Chinese selenium products in the international market, providing strong policy support for the industry's "going global" strategy. III. High-Growth Track Analysis Amid broadly steady market growth, which sub-sectors are experiencing explosive expansion? This chapter focuses on three high-growth tracks: nano-selenium, high-purity selenium, and indium selenide. ► Track 1: Nano-Selenium Biomedicine and Healthy Agriculture — One of the fastest-growing sectors in the selenium industry Core Strengths: High bioavailability | Low toxicity It addresses the pain point of balancing effectiveness and safety in traditional selenium agents, offering dual value in nutrition and pharmaceuticals. Sharing also included market size forecasts, diverse application scenarios, and national policy support. ► Track 2: High-Purity Selenium (Semiconductors and PV) • Positioning as a critical basic material: High-purity selenium (purity ≥5N) is a strategic critical material underpinning the development of semiconductor chip manufacturing and PV solar cell industries, holding an irreplaceable position in the advanced manufacturing supply chain. Current Industry Status: Overall market demand is growing rapidly, but exhibits a significant "structural supply-demand mismatch," characterized by low-end overcapacity coexisting with a shortage of high-end products. • Market Demand and Structural Issues Demand Growth: China's total market demand is projected to maintain a 16.8% average annual compound growth rate from 2026 to 2030, indicating enormous potential. Polarization: Relatively surplus capacity in 5N low-end products; severe shortage of 6N and above high-end products, with import dependency reaching as high as 71%. • Technology Barriers and Localisation Substitution Opportunities Core Barriers: The preparation of 6N high-purity selenium involves complex processes, primarily relying on "zone melting" and "chemical vapor transport (CVT)" technologies, posing extremely high technical thresholds. Policy Driver: The National IC Fund has provided targeted capital injection to support breakthroughs, with a clear industrial goal of achieving over 60% localisation rate for high-end high-purity selenium by 2027. ► Track 3: Indium Selenide (Infrared Detection and Advanced Optoelectronics) • Material Overview Indium selenide (In₂Se₃) is a new-type layered semiconductor material with excellent optoelectronic properties. With its unique band structure, high carrier mobility, and good flexibility, it holds tremendous application potential in cutting-edge fields such as infrared detection, flexible optoelectronic devices, and new-type PV, making it a current hot topic in semiconductor material R&D. • Market Size Forecast Chinese market size in 2025: 382 million yuan; expected to reach 429 million yuan in 2026; up 12.3% YoY. • Competitive Landscape: Highly Concentrated Industry barriers are high, with a prominent head effect: the top three enterprises command approximately 68.3% market share. • Core Application Scenarios 01 Infrared focal plane detectors, widely used in security surveillance and industrial temperature measurement, represent the primary downstream demand. 02 Energy and new energy: Used as a buffer layer in CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide) thin-film solar cells, serving as an important raw material for the PV industry. 03 Flexible electronic devices: Leveraging advantages of layered structure, high-performance flexible displays and wearable device sensors can be developed. IV. Cutting-Edge Technologies and Future Trends Technological innovation is the fundamental driving force behind industrial development. Breakthroughs in Cutting-Edge Technologies: Antimony Selenide Sulfide Solar Cells Core Technical Advantages: The material combines excellent photoelectric conversion properties with outstanding chemical stability, featuring low production costs and strong process compatibility, thereby solving the trade-off between performance and stability in traditional PV materials. Industrial Application Prospects: Viewed as a highly promising next-generation PV technology direction, it not only broadens the selection of PV materials but also opens up a completely new path for high-value application of "selenium" resources in the new energy field. Industrial Development Trends 01. Technology-driven high value-addition | The core of industrial competition is shifting from resource acquisition to technological innovation, where technical barriers will become the fundamental foundation for enterprises to thrive. 2. Deep Localisation Substitution | Driven by national strategic support and market demand, the localisation process of key materials will continue to accelerate. 3. The "Materials-as-a-Service" Model Emerges | Upstream producers are no longer limited to mere product supply but are deeply integrated with downstream clients, providing customised solutions. 4. Green, Low-carbon, and Circular Economy | Stricter environmental protection policies are forcing industry upgrades, and green production processes and efficient resource recycling technologies will become increasingly important. 5. Strategic Recommendations Based on the above analysis, it provides some specific strategic recommendations for industry participants and investors. Whether enterprises or investors, in the current complex and volatile market environment, all need clear strategic guidance to seize opportunities and avoid risks. ► Recommendations for Enterprises 1. Focus on High-Growth Sectors: Decisively allocate resources toward high-value-added areas such as nano-selenium and 6N high-purity selenium, and avoid homogeneous competition with low profits. 2. Strengthen Technology R&D and Cooperation: Establish an independent R&D system to maintain core competitiveness, while actively engaging in industry-university-research cooperation with universities and research institutes. 3. Build Industry Chain Synergy: Extend toward upstream raw material sources to ensure stable supply, and expand toward downstream application ends to deeply integrate core clients, enhancing risk resistance capabilities. 4. Enhance Quality and Brand: Establish and strictly enforce a high-standard quality control system, cultivate a high-end, professional brand image, and compete with premium quality and pricing. ► Recommendations for Investors 1. Focus on Technologically Leading Enterprises: Prioritize investment in enterprises with independent intellectual property rights in core technologies to build competitive barriers. 2. Seek Enterprises with Strong Downstream Integration: Choose enterprises that have established long-term and stable cooperation with downstream key clients to ensure robust operational performance. 3. Allocate to Entire Industry Chain Enterprises: Focus on enterprises with a complete industry chain layout from mineral resources to end-use applications to enhance risk resistance capabilities. 4. Beware of Market Fluctuation Risks: Fully assess the impact of periodic selenium price fluctuations on enterprise costs and profits, and implement risk hedging. Furthermore, it also provides an introduction to Lianzhou Tuosheng New Energy Co., Ltd.