This week, FOB quotations in the ex-China rare earth market generally declined, with varieties such as terbium oxide and terbium metal seeing noticeable drops. However, affected by policies and weak demand, actual transaction volumes were thin, and heavy rare earth prices stayed high. Meanwhile, supply chain restructuring moves were frequent: resources at Namibia's Kameelburg increased by another 35%, Japanese capital officially entered the Lofdal project; Malaysia considered conditionally liberalizing raw ore exports; US-based Energy Fuels advanced the final investment decision for the Donald project in Australia, and Lockheed Martin signed a long-term scandium supply agreement. A survey in Japan showed that 80% of manufacturing executives considered rare earth procurement a major risk, highlighting anxiety in the industry chain.

Published: 3 Aug 2026, 17:30 BST RBC’s high scenario keeps gold near $5,300 through 2027 as central-bank buying and stronger Asian investment demand cushion bullion on the downside. The Gold price in US Dollars slipped back towards $4,037 on Monday after ending last week near $4,072, but analysts at RBC Capital Markets still see a route towards $5,300 under its bullish scenario. The bank’s latest forecast puts gold at an average $5,132 in the third quarter, rising to $5,203 in the fourth quarter. Its 2027 high case averages $5,296, with quarterly forecasts between $5,249 and $5,321. RBC’s central scenario is more restrained, forecasting $4,558 this quarter, $4,370 in the fourth quarter and an average of $4,225 in 2027. The bullish case rests partly on demand holding up better than the headline data suggest. “In a YTD period that has seen a nearly $1,500/oz range for gold prices, Q2 ended with some notable dynamics,” RBC said. Central banks bought 289 tonnes during the second quarter after a slower opening quarter, outpacing both jewellery demand and bar-and-coin purchases. RBC said the official sector remained a “consistent positive undercurrent”, adding that Poland, Uzbekistan, China and Kazakhstan were the largest reported buyers this year. Gold traded between roughly $3,963 and $4,202 over the past month before returning towards $4,070. Investor demand in Asia is another important support. RBC highlighted “underlying shifts in Asia towards investor products, at the detriment of consumer products like jewellery”, arguing that the move still “nets out positive for total demand”. The bank added that Asian markets continue to dominate global bar-and-coin demand. Gold Outlook: Official Buying Cushions the Downside Exchange-traded fund demand weakened during the second quarter, but RBC noted that “Q3 has started off with inflows and YTD flows are positive”. That helps explain why the bank’s high scenario remains well above current prices despite gold’s difficult year. XAU/USD is down around 5.7% in 2026 and continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The price of Gold remains lower for the year after falling sharply from January’s peak above $5,500. RBC’s low scenario still warns of substantial downside, with gold averaging $3,729 in the third quarter and $3,661 during 2027. Its high case, however, keeps the prospect of $5,300 gold firmly alive if central-bank purchases remain strong and investment demand continues shifting towards bullion. Source： https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46716/2026-08-03-gold-price-forecast-predictions-2026-2027-rbc-sees-bullion-reaching-5-321.html

On August 4, the stock price of JCHX fell. As of 10:38 am on August 4, JCHX dropped 0.54% to 71.17 yuan per share. In terms of news, the monthly investor relations activity summary (July 2026) announced by JCHX on August 3 shows: 1. Project Progress of the San Matias Copper-Gold-Silver Mine in Colombia The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver Mine has received formal approval from Colombia's National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA). As of now, the technical, environmental, and social impact assessment process involving local communities, authorities, and government technical agencies has been satisfactorily completed. In the subsequent development and construction of the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver Mine, the company will fully implement the social and economic protection requirements of the environmental permit, always adhering to the core principles of human rights protection, risk prevention, and collective well-being. By establishing a long-term communication and sharing mechanism, it will ensure that project operations coexist harmoniously with local communities for mutual benefit and win-win outcomes. According to the feasibility study (FS) for the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver deposit completed in December 2023 (adopting the NI 43-101 standard), the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver mine project is an open-pit mining and processing project, with an estimated investment of $420.4 million and a designed ore volume of 97.9 million tons within the pit limit. The construction period is 2 years, and the mine life is expected to be 14.2 years after completion. The project is expected to cumulatively recover 797 million pounds of copper, 550,000 ounces of gold, and 5.35 million ounces of silver. 2. Technological Transformation of the Lubambe Copper Mine Project Since completing the acquisition of the Lubambe Copper Mine in Zambia in H2 2024, the company has continuously strengthened its operation and management, while advancing geological exploration, mining production, beneficiation production, and the renovation of underground auxiliary systems. As the technological transformation plan is gradually implemented, the operational efficiency of the Lubambe Copper Mine will be continuously improved. 3. Remaining Recoverable Reserves and Seasonality of the Dikulushi Mine The company currently holds two mining rights (PE606 and PE13085) in the Katanga Province of southeastern DRC through its subsidiaries Jinjing Mining and Yuanjing Mining, with a mining right area of 68.77 square kilometers. The Dikulushi Copper Mine, which commenced production in December 2021, is part of the PE606 mining right. As of the end of December 2025, the Dikulushi Copper Mine has retained ore reserves of approximately 430,000 tons, with an average copper grade of 7.58%. Since the commencement of production at the Dikulushi Copper Mine, the company has continuously extended the mine's life cycle through simultaneous production and exploration, with significant results: the 2021 annual report disclosed a remaining mining life of 3.58 years, while the 2025 annual report disclosed a remaining mining life of 2.98 years. In the future, this approach of simultaneous production and exploration will continue. The production and sales of the Dikulushi Copper Mine take into account the local rainy season from November to April, and sales are not evenly distributed throughout the year. Generally, the rainy season affects the condition of peripheral roads around the mining area, thereby impacting product transportation, so sales are relatively lower during the rainy season. 4. Expansion and Construction of the Eastern Zone of the Lonshi Copper Mine According to the "Feasibility Study on the Eastern Zone Mining and Processing Project of the Lonshi Copper Mine in DRC" released by the company in January 2025, the eastern zone will adopt underground mining, with a designed annual mining scale of 2.5-3.5 million tons and a planned infrastructure period of 4.5 years. It will reach full production in the 4th year after commissioning, with a total service life of 12 years. To balance the service cycles of the eastern and western zones, the western zone will undergo year-by-year production cuts after the eastern zone commissions, with a combined maximum annual ore output of 4.5 million tons from underground mining in both zones. After the eastern zone reaches full production, the combined annual copper metal production of the eastern and western zones of the Lonshi Copper Mine will be approximately 100,000 tons. 5. Pricing Model of Mining Services Business The pricing model for mining services is cost-plus, based on the mine's resource endowment, technical difficulty of mining, etc., using industry-standard operational efficiency and operating costs as references for pricing. Generally, it is not linked to mineral resource product prices. 6. Listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange To further advance the company's global strategic layout, build an international capital operation platform, broaden diversified financing channels through international capital markets, further enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness and continuously increase its international influence, and strengthen its core competitiveness, the company is planning to issue overseas-listed shares (H shares) and list on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. The company is actively discussing the relevant work for this H-share issuance and listing. The specific details have not yet been determined. Once the specific plan is finalized, the H-share issuance and listing still need to be submitted to the company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting for deliberation, and require filing, approval, and/or clearance from relevant government and regulatory bodies such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. There is significant uncertainty as to whether the H-share issuance and listing can pass the deliberation, filing, and review procedures and ultimately be implemented. 7. Development Potential of Mining Services Business Adopting a target market strategy focused on "large markets, large owners, large projects," the company, on the one hand, consistently implements the philosophy of providing value-added services to mine owners with leading technology, gaining their recognition through high-quality mine construction services, and subsequently undertaking later mining operation and management business. On the other hand, by enhancing mine design and technology R&D, it has initially formed an integrated comprehensive business model encompassing mine construction, mining operation management, and mine design and technology R&D. This model can more effectively meet the needs of owners for mine construction and mining operations, better achieve a rapid and stable transition from infrastructure to production, shorten construction cycles, achieve rapid commissioning and full production, and save infrastructure investment for mine owners. At the same time, the development space for the company's mining services business will become broader. In the future, the growth of the mining services business will mainly come from two directions: first, newly undertaken external projects; second, incremental expansion of existing projects — large mines typically have multiple ore bodies, and their development is often carried out in stages. Specifically, when the first phase progresses to a certain stage, construction of the second phase will commence. During this process, owners will actively seek high-quality service providers. 8. Construction Progress of the Northern Mining Zone of the Phosphate Ore Mine The Liangchahe Phosphate Ore Northern Mining Zone has a production scale of 500,000 t/a and is currently under construction, aiming to be completed and put into production by the end of 2028. 9. View on the Trend of Copper Prices Looking at the current and upcoming period, the copper market faces a pronounced "tight balance" pattern. Supply side, production release is strictly limited by the dual constraints of declining average copper ore grades globally and insufficient long-term capital expenditure, and disruption risks at the mine end are intensifying. Demand side, the global energy transition (new energy sector) and infrastructure construction in emerging markets provide sustained and resilient demand support. Against this backdrop, copper prices are expected to drift higher over the medium and long term. 10. Future Development Strategy of the Company On the basis of maintaining stable development of its existing mine development business, the company relies on its accumulated advantages in technology, management, and industry to actively expand into the resource development sector, gradually exploring a development path of "mining services + resources." Driven by the dual engines of "mining services" and "resource development," it promotes the comprehensive transformation from a single mining services enterprise to a group-oriented mining company. 11. Competitive Advantages of the Company in the Industry With its deep expertise accumulated in mine construction and mining operation management, the company extends along the mining industry chain into areas such as mine resource development, design and R&D, and equipment manufacturing, steadily enhancing its integrated service and control capabilities for mining services. It can feed back experiences gained during construction and problems identified through the shortest channels and at the lowest cost to the development consulting and design phases, and incorporate the company's latest scientific research achievements into its design business to optimize design plans, enabling scientific and technological innovations to rapidly transform into productive forces applied in the resource development sector. This can better shorten the construction cycle of resource development, reduce unit production costs, and increase the safety margin in market competition for mineral products. Through the advantages of integrated operations, it improves resource project development efficiency, extends project life, and maximizes the economic value of resource projects. 12. Are There Plans for Further Mine Acquisitions? From a long-term strategic perspective, the company focuses on resource projects that match its scale and have value investment potential. Currently, the company already owns five mine resource projects, and therefore prefers to achieve reserve growth through exploration work on existing projects, viewing this as a more economical way to acquire resources. At the same time, leveraging its advantages in mine construction and operation, the company will also explore expanding its business through equity participation plus operation. In terms of performance, JCHX's Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 28 showed that the company achieved total operating revenue of 3.414 billion yuan, up 21.45% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 601 million yuan, up 42.55% YoY. For the increase in Q1 operating revenue and net profit, JCHX's announcement stated that it was mainly due to increased sales of mineral resource products (copper cathode, copper concentrates, iron ore) and rising copper product prices during the period. JCHX's 2025 annual report disclosed that the company's 2025 revenue was 13.894 billion yuan, up 39.74% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.339 billion yuan, up 47.66% YoY. JCHX stated in its 2025 annual report that the 39.74% increase in operating revenue and the 47.66% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders year-on-year were mainly due to the ramp-up and efficiency improvement of its captive mine projects in the mine resource development business during the reporting period. A research report from China Post Securities commenting on JCHX's performance shows that the resource segment experienced volume growth, while the mining services business was a slight drag. By business segment, in 2025, the mine resource business achieved revenue/gross profit of 6.986/3.121 billion yuan, up 117.67%/130.20% YoY, and the mining services business achieved combined revenue/gross profit of 6.613/1.515 billion yuan, up 1.06%/-13.47% YoY. The mine business saw both volume and price increases, while the decline in mining services was mainly due to the Lubambe Copper Mine being converted into an internal unit after acquisition, reducing recognized revenue and gross profit, and some projects being affected by declining operational volume/production ramp-up. Volume: In 2025, copper metal sales were 92,700 tons, up 88.16% YoY, and phosphate ore sales were 357,400 tons, down 1.00% YoY. The increase in copper metal production and sales was mainly due to the Lonshi Copper Mine reaching full production and releasing output, with Dikulushi and Lonshi Copper Mines exceeding production plans, and the Lubambe Copper Mine being consolidated for the full year. In Q1 2026, copper metal production and sales were 22,400/18,100 tons respectively, mainly affected by grade decline and the rainy season. Price: In 2025, copper prices rose 7.62% YoY, and in Q1 2026, they rose 36.72% YoY. Production in 2026 is expected to grow steadily, with huge expansion potential in the long term. In 2026, the company's captive resource projects plan to produce 100,300 tons of copper metal (equivalent) and sell 99,700 tons of copper metal (equivalent), and produce and sell 300,000 tons of phosphate ore; the Istanex Mountain magnetite project plans to produce and sell 1.25 million tons of iron ore concentrates. In the long term, the northern mining zone of the Liangchahe Phosphate Ore Mine is expected to be put into use by the end of 2028, with annual capacity expanding from 300,000 tons to 800,000 tons; the eastern zone of the Lonshi Copper Mine, after commissioning, can expand annual production from 40,000 tons to 100,000 tons; the Lubambe Copper Mine is under technological transformation, and after completion, it is expected to produce 35,000 tons of copper per year; the company's equity stake in the San Matias Copper-Gold-Silver Mine has reached 97.5%, and it is in the EIA approval stage. Risk warning: price fluctuation risk; project progress falling short of expectations risk; downstream demand falling short of expectations risk; model assumptions not aligning with reality; policy exceeding expectations risk, etc.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2% in July, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with the overall sentiment pulling back somewhat. The non-manufacturing business activity index for July was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a lower level of non-manufacturing activity compared to the previous month. The composite PMI output index for July was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, signalling that the overall pace of business activity among China's enterprises slowed down MoM. Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the NBS Service Industry Survey Centre, noted that the manufacturing PMI pulled back in July while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%, affected by factors including a relatively high base from the previous period of rapid growth in manufacturing and the traditional production off-season in some manufacturing sectors. The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors continued to play a supportive and leading role, with their respective PMIs at 51.4% and 53.3%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing figure and maintaining relatively rapid expansion, steering manufacturing development towards higher quality and innovation. The PMIs for the consumer goods industry and the high-energy-consuming industry were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, reflecting a pullback in sentiment. China PMI Performance in July 2026 I. China Manufacturing PMI Performance In July, the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with sentiment pulling back somewhat. By enterprise size, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.5%, 49.7%, and 47.4%, respectively, down 1.2, 0.8, and 0.8 percentage points MoM, all below the threshold. Among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 49.9%, down 1.5 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing production activity experienced some slowdown. The new orders index was 48.5%, down 2.7 percentage points MoM, pointing to a pullback in manufacturing market demand. The raw material inventory index was 48.3%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM, suggesting that inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector continued to decline. The employment index was 49.0%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, indicating that the labour market sentiment in manufacturing enterprises rebounded somewhat. The supplier delivery time index was 49.5%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM, signalling that delivery times for raw material suppliers in manufacturing lengthened compared to the previous month. II. China Non-Manufacturing PMI Performance In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, with non-manufacturing sentiment lower than in the previous month. By sector, the construction business activity index was 47.0%, down 2.0 percentage points MoM, and the services business activity index was 49.3%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM. Within the services sector, business activity indices for postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting and satellite transmission services, and culture, sports and entertainment were all in the relatively high sentiment territory above 55.0%. By contrast, business activity indices for capital market services and real estate were below the threshold. The new orders index was 44.4%, down 3.6 percentage points MoM, indicating a pullback in market demand sentiment for non-manufacturing. By sector, the new orders index for construction was 40.1%, down 6.2 percentage points MoM, and the new orders index for services was 45.2%, down 3.2 percentage points MoM. The input price index was 49.7%, unchanged from the previous month but still below the threshold, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities continued to decline. By sector, the input price index for construction was 48.7%, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, and the input price index for services was 49.9%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM. The selling price index was 47.9%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, suggesting that the overall decline in selling prices for non-manufacturing enterprises widened somewhat. By sector, the selling price index for construction was 47.7%, down 2.1 percentage points MoM, and the selling price index for services was 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM. The employment index was 45.4%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM, indicating that labour market sentiment in non-manufacturing enterprises pulled back somewhat. By sector, the employment index for construction was 40.9%, down 1.4 percentage points MoM, and the employment index for services was 46.2%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM. The business activity expectations index was 55.4%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises' confidence in market development strengthened. By sector, the business activity expectations index for construction was 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, and the business activity expectations index for services was 56.0%, unchanged from the previous month. III. China Composite PMI Output Index Performance In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, indicating that the pace of business activity among China's enterprises slowed down MoM. III. China Composite PMI Output Index Performance In June, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM, indicating that the overall expansion of business activity among China's enterprises slightly accelerated. China's PMI Pulled Back in July — Interpretation of China’s PMI for July 2026 by Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician at the NBS Service Industry Survey Centre On 31 July 2026, the NBS Service Industry Survey Centre and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's PMI. Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the NBS Service Industry Survey Centre, provided the following interpretation. In July, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index stood at 49.2%, 49.0%, and 49.3%, respectively, down 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 percentage points MoM. Sentiment was somewhat lower than in the previous month. I. Manufacturing PMI Pulled Back, While High-Tech Manufacturing Continued to Expand In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%, affected by factors such as a relatively high base from the earlier period of rapid manufacturing growth and the traditional production off-season in some manufacturing sectors. (1) The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors continued to play a supportive and leading role. Their PMIs were 51.4% and 53.3%, respectively, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing figure, maintaining relatively rapid expansion and steering manufacturing development towards higher quality and innovation. The PMIs for the consumer goods industry and the high-energy-consuming industry were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, reflecting a pullback in sentiment. (2) Production and demand in some equipment manufacturing industries grew relatively fast. The manufacturing production index and new orders index were 49.9% and 48.5%, respectively, down 1.5 and 2.7 percentage points MoM, indicating that both manufacturing enterprise production and market demand pulled back. By industry, the production and new orders indices for general equipment and computer, communication and other electronic equipment were both above 53.0%, pointing to high market activity and relatively fast growth in production and demand. In contrast, the production and new orders indices for non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and automobiles were below the threshold, suggesting weak supply-demand sentiment. (3) The price indices declined further. The main raw material purchase price index and the EXW price index were 53.2% and 47.8%, respectively, and have fallen for four consecutive months, influenced by recent fluctuations in some commodity prices. Among these, both price indices for non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were below 45.0%. Due to significant price level fluctuations, enterprises' purchase willingness weakened, and the procurement volume index fell to 49.4% this month. (4) Market expectations remained stable. The manufacturing production and business operation expectations index was 54.1%, reflecting continued overall optimism among enterprises regarding market development. By industry, the expectations indices for food, beverage, and refined tea, as well as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other equipment, rose above 60.0%, indicating that relevant enterprises' confidence in near-term industry development strengthened. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Declined Somewhat, While the Culture and Tourism Sector Remained Relatively Active In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, with non-manufacturing sentiment lower than in the previous month. (1) Sentiment in the culture and tourism sector rebounded. The services business activity index was 49.3%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, indicating a pullback in services market activity. By industry, driven by summer consumption, residents' leisure, entertainment, and travel activities increased, with the business activity indices for air transport, accommodation, and culture, sports and entertainment rebounding noticeably MoM, as relevant enterprises' business volumes grew relatively fast. The business activity indices for wholesale and monetary and financial services recorded relatively large declines, representing the main factors behind the fall in overall services sector sentiment this month. Meanwhile, the business activity indices for capital market services and real estate were below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index was 56.0%, unchanged from the previous month, pointing to relatively stable confidence among enterprises regarding near-term market development. (2) Construction sector sentiment headed downwards. Affected by unfavourable factors such as recent high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and flooding in some regions, construction progress slowed down somewhat, and the business activity index was 47.0%, down 2.0 percentage points MoM. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating that enterprises' confidence in near-term industry development strengthened somewhat. III. Composite PMI Output Index Below the Threshold In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, with the pace of business activity among Chinese enterprises slowing down MoM. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which together form the composite PMI output index, were 49.9% and 49.0%, respectively.

American Mineral Resources (AMR) is expanding a geographically diversified portfolio of mining projects as it prepares for a planned Nasdaq listing, arguing that access to financing has become one of the biggest challenges facing junior mining companies. The company currently holds polymetallic, placer gold and silver projects across seven jurisdictions, including Quebec, British Columbia, Yukon, Chile, New Zealand, Western Australia and Tanzania. AMR said the diversified portfolio helps reduce permitting and development risks while balancing projects at different stages of advancement. AMR also highlighted Canada's flow-through share financing system as a key advantage for junior miners. The company noted that while U.S. capital markets remain heavily focused on artificial intelligence and technology investments, many mining companies continue to raise exploration funding in Canada before pursuing a Nasdaq listing

A study has confirmed an improved economic picture for New Pacific Metals’ Carangas silver-gold project in Bolivia, with the updated preliminary economic assessment more than doubling the after-tax net present value to $2.65 billion, supporting annual production of 18 million oz. of silver equivalent over a 19-year mine life. The updated PEA, completed by Ausenco, factors in a higher processing rate and includes a new gold-only zone not included in the 2024 study. Using base case metal prices of $45/oz. silver, $3,400/oz. gold, $1.2/lb zinc, and $0.9/lb lead, the after-tax internal rate of return is 35.9%, with a payback period of 2.4 years and an initial capital outlay of $644.5 million. The mine plan calls for life-of-mine production of 195 million oz. of silver, 1.1 million oz. of gold, 1.45 billion lb. of zinc, and 941 million lb. of lead, or 339 million oz. of silver equivalent. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at $19.16/oz. of silver equivalent. "The strong project economics and manageable upfront capital are expected to support annual production of 10 million oz. of silver and 1 million oz. of gold over the mine life," New Pacific said. The company added it will push ahead with 30,000 meters of infill drilling while seeking to convert its exploration license into an administrative mining contract and kick-starting the environmental impact assessment. BMO Capital Markets analyst Kevin O’Halloran noted the updated study has "significantly improved" the economic value of Carangas by adding a gold-only zone at depth and a higher mill throughput, boosting BMO’s Carangas net asset value for the company by 13%. He emphasized Carangas as a "key value driver" for New Pacific as it advances the project. Investors will watch closely as additional inferred resources are upgraded to indicated status through drilling, O’Halloran said. The study reaffirms Carangas as one of the largest undeveloped silver projects in the Americas, but bringing it into production goes beyond just economic value. Bolivia faces significant hurdles from fuel shortages and foreign exchange restrictions to regulatory uncertainty and slow permitting. Industry consultant Juan Ignacio Guzmán, in a July investment note, said the country must improve legal stability, infrastructure, and institutional credibility to unlock its vast mineral potential. He suggested that orderly permitting and transparent regulation — not faster approvals — will determine whether Bolivia can transform large-scale mineral resources into operating mines.

SMM, July 17: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME copper and SHFE copper falling together—LME copper declined 0.28% and SHFE copper eased 0.08%. LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE lead all gained, with LME lead up 1%, LME nickel up 1.66%, and SHFE lead up 1.57%. Gains in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract fell 0.59%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.52%. Overnight in ferrous metals, stainless steel advanced 1.16%, iron ore rose 0.79%, and gains in rebar and hot-rolled coil were within 1%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal added 0.36% and coke edged up 0.08%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold dropped 1.77% and COMEX silver tumbled 2.9%, touching an intraday low of $55.595/oz, its lowest since November 2025. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.34% and SHFE silver slumped 3.15%. Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price target to $4,533/oz, citing central bank reserve diversification and expectations that the US Fed will only hike rates once or twice at most over the coming year. (Jinshi Data APP) Overnight closing prices as of 6:41 on July 17: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Commerce Responds to Progress on Resolving Nexperia Semiconductor Issues] At a routine press conference on the 16th, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong responded to questions on progress in resolving issues concerning Nexperia, stating that since China and the Netherlands established an open and pragmatic comprehensive cooperative partnership more than a decade ago, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has continuously deepened. On July 7, Dutch Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Schreinemacher visited China. Minister Wang Wentao co-chaired the 18th meeting of the China-Netherlands Joint Committee on Economic and Trade Cooperation, where the two sides held candid, in-depth exchanges on China-Netherlands and China-EU economic and trade relations. Both sides agreed that governments should create a favorable environment, encouraging enterprises to resolve disputes through consultation and safeguarding the security and stability of global semiconductor industrial and supply chains. [US Initiates Anti-Circumvention Investigation on Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells] On July 13, 2026, in response to an application filed by US domestic companies First Solar, Inc., Hanwha Q CELLS USA Inc., Talon PV, Swift Solar, Great Lakes Solex PR, LLC, DYCM Power, LLC, Suniva Inc., and Silfab Solar Inc., the US initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on crystalline silicon solar cells (whether or not assembled into modules) originating in China. The investigation examines potential circumvention of US antidumping and countervailing duty orders via two scenarios: (1) Chinese-made parts are assembled into solar cells and modules in Ethiopia and then exported to the US through Ethiopia; (2) Chinese-made parts are assembled into solar cells in Ethiopia, then exported to Vietnam for module assembly before being re-exported from Vietnam to the US. On February 1, 2024, the US Department of Commerce initiated the second sunset reviews of the antidumping and countervailing duty orders on crystalline silicon solar cells imported from China. On June 7, 2024, the Department of Commerce issued the final results of the expedited second sunset review of the countervailing duty order. (China Trade Remedies Information) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 100.72. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voting member) called for higher interest rates, stating that inflation does not appear to be sustainably returning to the central bank's 2% target. A modest increase in rates would better balance the outlook and risks under the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Artificial intelligence (AI) may eventually deliver a productivity surge, but for now, demand effects are pushing up prices as demand outstrips supply. (from Wall Street News APP) Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Policy is well-prepared and can be reconsidered if necessary. The current policy stance should support the labor market and allow inflation to resume its decline toward the 2% target as the effects of tariffs and energy price pass-through fade. In a scenario where inflation fails to begin cooling, it may be appropriate to re-examine the policy stance to ensure price stability is achieved. The current policy is well-positioned to respond to changes and will be shaped based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Firmly committed to restoring inflation to our 2% target, consistent with our dual mandate. The impact of the Middle East conflict on demand is expected to be mild, as the US is a net oil exporter and its economy has relatively low oil dependence. Two major developments are being closely monitored—the Middle East conflict and the popularization of artificial intelligence (AI). The current situation underscores a policy dilemma where tension exists between the dual mandate objectives. Each development cannot be viewed in isolation; policy must be formulated considering overall economic conditions. Energy shocks and trade policy shocks are compounding one another, with the latter already impacting output and prices at least in the short run. Successive shocks bring the risk that inflation becomes entrenched and inflation expectations become de-anchored. The economic shocks from AI could have lasting effects on both supply and demand. If the demand effects from AI infrastructure and consumption arrive ahead of AI's productivity dividends, AI could exert upward pressure on inflation. If AI's productivity dividends reduce production costs more quickly, it could generate downward pressure on inflation. (from Wall Street News APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. The probability of holding rates steady through September is 48.8%, with a 46.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 5.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jinshi Data) Macro front: Today will see the release of US June housing starts (annualized), US June building permits, US June import price index (MoM), US June industrial production (MoM), the preliminary US July one-year inflation expectations, the preliminary US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone June final CPI (YoY), the Eurozone June final CPI (MoM), and other data. Additionally, China's refined oil products will see a new pricing window open. The 2026 World AI Conference & High-Level Meeting on AI Global Governance will be held in Shanghai from July 17 to 20. President Xi Jinping will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a keynote speech. 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy; and US President Trump delivers a national address. Crude Oil: As of the overnight close, both benchmark oil prices fell—WTI crude slipped 0.03% and Brent crude edged down 0.11%. Tensions between the US and Iran persist, and Tehran appears unwilling to back down in the face of warnings from US President Donald Trump. The US military also stated that it assisted more than 10 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Nevertheless, shipping traffic remains significantly reduced. According to RBC Capital Markets data, the seven-day average of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has declined from 4.6 million bpd to 3.9 million bpd. (Bloomberg) Sources: Crude oil loadings from all Iraqi oil terminals have been suspended following the drone collision with an oil tanker. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Kpler data and a source with direct knowledge of flows, after months of restricted exports, Iraqi crude loadings more than doubled in the first half of July, averaging roughly 1.2 million bpd as shipments accelerated. Kpler data shows Iraq's crude exports averaged around 500,000 bpd in June. Despite the monthly increase, exports from Iraq's southern Basrah port remain far below pre-US-Iraq war levels—before March, average daily exports had exceeded 3.2 million bpd. (Reuters)

Published: Jul 13, 2026 at 16:00 Gold prices have rebounded from June's sharp correction, but RBC Capital Markets believes investors should be prepared for further volatility before the precious metal resumes its longer-term advance. Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,165 after recovering more than 3% in July, following an almost 12% decline in June that briefly pushed prices below $4,000. Image: Gold price in US dollars - 1 day chart Gold Outlook: Short-Term Risks Remain RBC says investors should not assume the recent rebound marks the start of a sustained rally. "While we remain of the view that gold's upside story is not over, there remains the risk of near-term weakness." The bank believes higher US interest rates and a stronger Dollar could continue weighing on bullion in the short run. However, RBC argues much of the current macro outlook has already been priced into gold. "We think risk is skewed to the upside in the medium term, especially towards year end." The bank expects several potential catalysts—including renewed geopolitical uncertainty, softer US Dollar sentiment and changing expectations for bond yields—to help gold regain momentum. "We think it's a mistake to hinge our view on the current consensus views being baked into gold prices." RBC also believes structural demand remains intact, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold while investors are unlikely to remain underweight indefinitely. "We think central banks remain supportive and that investors will not sit on the sidelines indefinitely." Image: XAU/USD 6 month chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: RBC Says Volatility Should Give Way to Higher Prices Although RBC expects further short-term weakness cannot be ruled out, the bank continues to believe the broader bull market remains intact. It argues that once current concerns over higher interest rates and Dollar strength begin to fade, long-term drivers such as government debt, reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty should once again support higher gold prices into year-end. Source： https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46496/2026-07-13-gold-price-forecast-is-this-pullback-the-buying-opportunity-investors-wanted.html

SMM July 13: Metals market: As of the midday break, the domestic base metals nearly all fell, with SHFE copper down 0.78%, SHFE aluminum down 0.37%, SHFE lead down 0.62%, SHFE zinc down 0.68%, SHFE tin down 1.51%, and SHFE nickel up 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.32%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.2%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.36%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.6%, rebar fell 0.81%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.49%, and stainless steel edged up 0.07%. In coking coal and coke, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.47% and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.17%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:47, LME metals mostly fell, with LME copper down 0.81%, LME aluminum edged up 0.08%, LME lead down 1.11%, LME zinc down 0.75%, LME tin down 1.63%, and LME nickel down 0.51%. In precious metals, as of 11:47, COMEX gold fell 1.18% and COMEX silver fell 2.83%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold fell 1.47% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.97%. Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.19% and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.51%. As of the midday break, the most-traded container shipping futures (Europe route) contract rose 1.5% to 2,438 points. As of 11:47 on July 13, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, for Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,320 yuan/mt, down 710 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,215 yuan/mt, down 725 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory finally ended its seven consecutive declines… Macro front China: [Preview: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the improvement of the natural resource asset management system on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at 3:00 PM.] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with Vice Minister of Natural Resources Zhang Wentong and Deputy Director of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (National Park Administration) Zhang Liming briefing on the improvement of the natural resource asset management system and taking questions from the media. [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Achieves Net Injection of 217 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted a 224 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today. With 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the day saw a net injection of 217 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App) Regarding the US Dollar: As of 11:47, the US dollar index rose 0.18% to 101.14. The surge in oil prices reignited market concerns over inflation. The previous week, oil prices had already recorded their largest weekly gain since mid-May. Traders subsequently ramped up bets on further monetary policy tightening by the US Fed—the interest rate swap market is now pricing in a cumulative Fed rate hike of nearly 40 basis points by December, a significant increase from about 15 basis points in early June. (Wall Street CN) A Wall Street Journal survey of economists this month shows the impact of the conflict with Iran on the US economy is far smaller than economists previously feared. However, the bad news is that the conflict has made inflation, already well above the Fed’s 2% target, more entrenched and has deprived the Fed of room to cut interest rates. Compared with the April survey, conducted about a month after the conflict erupted, economists’ views have shifted markedly. Forecasters now expect the US economy to grow by 2.1% this year, measured by inflation-adjusted gross domestic product from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, up from the 2% estimate in April. The average probability of a recession within the next 12 months expected by economists fell to 25% from 33% in April, the lowest level since early 2025. Yet, improved growth prospects have been accompanied by growing inflation concerns. Economists expect consumer price index inflation to be 3.4% over the 12 months ending in December, up from 3.2% in the April survey. Inflation worries have extended beyond the war-driven boost to energy costs. Economists predict the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, a gauge closely watched by Fed officials, will rise 3.2% in 2026, higher than the 2.9% forecast in April. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 37.9%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate through September is 26.4%, that of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.8%, and that of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 21.8%. (Jin10 Data App) Investors will focus on the semi-annual testimony of the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for his latest views on inflation and interest rates, as well as updates on the progress of his plan to reform the Fed. Warsh is likely to be questioned by lawmakers about his extensive plan to reform the US Fed. The Fed previously announced the appointment list for the five working groups Warsh established to evaluate everything from communication methods to the size of the balance sheet. Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said investors will focus on Warsh’s testimony for more details and guidance on how the chair constructs the overall state of the US economy and Fed policy. The market is currently in a state of low volume and low confidence, at least until Tuesday’s inflation data and Warsh’s testimony are released. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of China’s June M2 money supply YoY, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date incremental social financing, among other data. Also, attention should be paid to Fed Governor Bowman’s speech on “Modernizing Financial Regulation.” On the crude oil front: As of 11:47, oil prices on both sides are up, with WTI up 4.02% and Brent up 3.97%. Uncertainty over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is directly driving oil prices higher. (Wall Street CN) Separately, Iraq's prime minister will visit Washington on Monday to deepen strategic ties with the US, with oil and gas agreements expected to be signed as part of a broader effort to boost economic, trade, and investment cooperation. Amid the ongoing US-Iran military escalation, Iraq has been seeking to balance its ties with neighboring Iran and the US. "The agreements to be signed will include multiple memoranda of understanding in the oil and gas sector, and Iraq is preparing to bring in a number of American companies to provide momentum for raising oil capacity," said Iraqi government spokesperson Hader Al-Abudi. The planned oil and gas agreements will also seek to open alternative export channels to reduce Iraq’s exposure should the Strait of Hormuz be disrupted, the Iraqi National News Agency quoted Al-Abudi as saying. Like other Gulf producers, Iraq suffered a drop in oil revenues during the US-Iran war due to the physical closure of this critical waterway. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,385/mt, dipped to $13,320/mt early in the session, then its price center drifted higher, touching a high of $13,422/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,411/mt, up 0.4%. Trading volume reached 11,700 lots and open interest stood at 249,000 lots, down 579 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short-covering. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,630 yuan/mt, with the copper price center dipping to 102,610 yuan/mt at the open, then drifting higher all the way, touching a high of 103,270 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settling at 103,090 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots and open interest stood at 150,000 lots, down 1,235 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short-covering.