DCE iron ore futures trended weaker overall today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 766.5 yuan/mt, down 1.35% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell 5-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were only moderately active in offering, while steel mills were cautious in procurement with fewer inquiries; spot market transactions were mediocre so far. According to SMM survey data, daily average hot metal production increased by 8,400 mt WoW this week, reaching 2.439 million mt. Blast furnace capacity utilization rate rose to 90.02%. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance decreased significantly overall, providing strong support for rigid demand for iron ore in April. Despite the fundamentally positive conditions, the overall market trend was still influenced by news. Reports of breakthrough progress in negotiations triggered market concerns over potential future supply, leading to downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, persistently sluggish spot market transactions also weighed on the iron ore market. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to continue a volatile and bearish trend going forward.

Hindustan Zinc Limited, the world’s largest integrated zinc producer, released its production figures for the fourth quarter and full year ending March 31, 2026. The company maintained consistent output across zinc, lead, and silver, sustaining operational momentum and reinforcing its standing as a top base metals producer. The data demonstrates continued efficiency and strong capacity utilization throughout the year. In Q4 FY 2025‑26, Hindustan Zinc achieved a record quarterly mined metal production of 315 kt, up 2 % year‑on‑year, while refined metal output also hit a new high of 282 kt. For the full year, mined metal production reached 1,114 kt, and refined zinc output totaled 851 kt, underscoring robust operational performance.

As of April 7, the operating rate of 50 major construction material-producing electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 41.42%, flat WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.6%, flat WoW; daily average production of construction materials was 94,900 mt, flat WoW. During the survey period (March 31–April 7), the overall operating rate of electric furnace mills nationwide remained stable, with fluctuations being relatively small. Currently, profitability of construction material products among electric furnace enterprises showed some divergence. Some enterprises have already fallen into losses due to high raw material costs and declining finished product prices, while others maintained a certain profit margin through strategies of adjusting product specifications and price premiums. Production and operations side, some electric furnace mills are already facing weak shipments and profitability under pressure. Additionally, South China has entered the rainy season, and the rainy and overcast weather conditions will further affect downstream construction progress. If profitability continues to deteriorate going forward, electric furnace enterprises may potentially reduce their operating hours.

[SMM Steel] According to American Iron and Steel Institute, United States raw steel production for the week ending April 4, 2026, reached 1.831 million net tons, with capacity utilization at 79.1%, up 1.6% WoW from 1.803 million net tons and 77.9% utilization. Output increased 8.2% YoY from 1.692 million net tons. Year-to-date production totaled 24.028 million net tons, up 5.2% YoY, with utilization at 77.4%.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

[SMM Steel] India’s Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) reported crude steel production of 5.43 mt in FY2025/26, up 51% YoY, while steel sales reached 4.42 mt, increasing 27% YoY, supported by improved operational efficiency and higher capacity utilization.

[SMM Steel] According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), U.S. domestic raw steel production for the week ending March 28, 2026, reached 1.803 million net tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.9%. This marks a 1.2% increase from the previous week (1.781 million net tons) and a significant 5.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Adjusted year-to-date production through March 28 stands at 22.197 million net tons, up 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a steady recovery in the U.S. steel sector.

[SMM Operating Rate of Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets] According to the SMM survey, as of March 31, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets mainly producing construction steel stood at 27.39%, up 27.39 percentage points MoM from February and up 5.25 percentage points YoY. National construction steel prices fluctuated downward in March. Rebar prices reached 3,167 yuan/mt on March 23, the highest price of the month, and 3,131 yuan/mt on March 4, the lowest price of the month. After the Lantern Festival, downstream construction sites gradually resumed work, market demand gradually improved, and end-users' just-in-time procurement increased slightly. Cost side, affected by multiple macro factors, the coal market as a whole showed a pattern of being more likely to rise than fall. At some coal mines in producing areas, production release was hindered by factors such as working face replacements, leading to a slight contraction in supply, while downstream procurement demand remained robust. Auction transaction premiums were obvious, further supporting stronger coal prices. As cost pressure was passed on, coke enterprises showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and expectations for a new round of coke price increases to be implemented heated up, which will likely be gradually realized in the near term. Raw material prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, and cost support for steel remained in place. Supply side, blast furnace steel mills currently maintained a stable production pace, with production remaining relatively steady; EAF steel mills resumed production in an orderly manner as planned, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rebound. As of March 24, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction steel was 40.42%, up 1.78% from the previous period. Billet-rolling mills also gradually resumed work after the Lantern Festival, and the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets was 27.39% this month, up 27.39% MoM, driving a rapid increase in overall market supply. Demand side, downstream construction sites were gradually resuming work, and market demand increased somewhat. However, dragged down by end-user steel consumption volumes and tight cash flow at end-user enterprises, the market remained cautious about the outlook. Downstream construction sites and traders mainly purchased as needed, and the strength of demand recovery was weaker than in the same period in previous years. Overall, after the Lantern Festival, both supply and demand increased, and the supply-demand imbalance was not yet prominent. As temperatures gradually recover and terminal construction conditions improve, the rebar supply-demand pattern is expected to improve mildly, and inventory is likely to continue declining. However, constrained by funding conditions, the room for incremental demand should not be viewed overly optimistically. Therefore, the increase in the operating rate of billet-processing enterprises in April is expected to be limited, and the room for overall supply growth is relatively small.

As of March 31, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction steel was 41.42%, up 1% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 42.6%, up 0.86% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 94,900 mt, up 1,900 mt WoW. During the survey period (March 24–March 31), the operating rate of electric furnace mills nationwide still maintained a slight rebound this week. At present, the profitability of construction materials production at most electric furnace mills was near the break-even line. Among them, profitability in Central China improved slightly, mainly because some electric furnace mills ensured production profitability by adjusting product specifications and markup strategies. Overall, cost pressure on electric furnace mills remained in place. If finished steel prices continued to remain in the doldrums, production enthusiasm among electric furnace enterprises would gradually weaken, and the overall pace of capacity release might tend to slow, making a large-scale production increase less likely.