This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Daily Review: Lower Nickel Prices Loosened Quotations, Shifting Down the Price Center of High-Grade NPI] April 2 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.74, up 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.51, up 0.01 MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 1 News, Supply side, under pressure from both upstream and downstream, quotations from smelters and traders were basically flat. Demand side, buying interest from downstream steel mills remained weak, and market demand was limited. Overall, with high upstream costs and end-use product prices struggling to match, high-grade NPI prices remained in stalemate.

[SMM Daily Review: Upstream Costs and Downstream Selling Prices Remained Difficult to Match, High-Grade NPI Prices Stayed in a Stalemate] April 1 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.71, down 0.07 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.5, down 0.04 MoM.

Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 60 yuan/mt, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 96,825 yuan/mt, up 1,260 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Gold is likely to continue playing an important role in central banks’ reserve portfolios in 2026. According to the World Gold Council, indications suggest that not only will already active central banks remain present in the market, but new buyers may also emerge.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Demand side, as it is currently month-end, most downstream enterprises have basically completed their monthly procurement plans, with limited new purchasing demand remaining, and the rest mainly focused on picking up goods under long-term contracts. Therefore, there were fewer inquiries during the day and transactions were sluggish. However, on Wednesday this week, as a new monthly procurement cycle begins, coupled with stockpiling demand ahead of the Qingming Festival, downstream buyers with cargo are expected to see some increase in purchasing demand, which may provide temporary support to spot premiums at that time. Supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, and the destocking speed of social inventory in Shanghai has slowed down, with overall circulating supply remaining relatively ample, putting some pressure on the room for discount recovery. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow, and after mid-week, attention should be paid to whether increased downstream purchasing can drive a slight narrowing of discounts.

This week, the domestic praseodymium-neodymium oxide market experienced narrow fluctuations, with prices remaining relatively stable overall while market sentiment saw minor shifts. Early in the week, firm pricing intentions from upstream separation plants and just-in-time procurement from large enterprises helped improve trading sentiment temporarily, prompting sellers to test higher offers and pushing prices slightly upward. However, persistent weakness in end-user demand and limited new orders from downstream magnetic material companies led to a generally pessimistic outlook on near-term consumption. As a result, downstream metal producers showed little enthusiasm for procurement, with price acceptance clearly constrained. When offers exceeded 720,000 RMB/ton, buying interest dropped significantly, and actual transactions faced resistance. Without sufficient momentum, prices eventually retreated to around 710,000 RMB/ton, forming a pattern of initial gains followed by a pullback. From a supply-demand perspective, some upstream separation plants are currently undergoing temporary suspensions or production cuts due to environmental inspections or maintenance, leading to a certain degree of supply contraction that provides underlying support for prices. Meanwhile, downstream demand remains weak, with no notable improvement in end-user consumption, leaving the market without strong positive catalysts. Overall, the market is characterized by weakness on both the supply and demand sides, with intense game-playing between upstream and downstream participants. Sellers show limited willingness to concede on prices, while buyers maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, with actual transactions primarily driven by essential needs. In the short term, the praseodymium-neodymium oxide market is expected to continue in this stalemate, with ongoing tussling between the two sides and prices likely to move within a narrow range, with limited room for significant upward or downward movement.

SMM News, March 27: This week, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,360 yuan/mt. Dominated by bears in early trading, prices fluctuated downward to a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Thereafter, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and the futures entered a narrow consolidation. Mid-week, supported by smelters holding spot prices firm, cost support from scrap batteries for secondary lead, and broad strength across the non-ferrous metals complex, lead prices fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,590 yuan/mt. In the latter part of mid-week, bullish momentum gradually weakened, and coupled with sluggish spot trades and weak downstream consumption, the price center of lead slowly moved lower, pulling back to around 16,410-16,440 yuan/mt. Toward the end of the week, macro sentiment eased, lead prices rebounded slightly, and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, up 265 yuan WoW, or 1.63%. This week, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. Dominated by bearish sentiment in early trading, it fluctuated downward to a low of $1,873.5/mt. Subsequently, buying interest gradually entered the market to support a price rebound, and after the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, the futures entered a narrow consolidation. Mid-week, driven by broad strength across the non-ferrous sector, lead prices fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. In the latter part of mid-week, bullish momentum gradually weakened, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Toward the end of the week, market sentiment eased, and lead prices rebounded slightly in consolidation, finally closing at $1,906/mt, up $17 from the start of the week, or 0.89%. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 20: LME lead opened at $1,905/mt this week and fluctuated lower in early trading under the influence of sentiment. It then climbed to a high of $1,938/mt supported by buying interest. In the latter part of mid-week, bullish momentum weakened, and amid weaker macro conditions and a weaker base metals sector, lead prices fell again and touched a low of $1,872.5/mt. They then rebounded slightly and consolidated toward the end of the week, finally closing at $1,881.5/mt, down $23.5 from the beginning of the week, a decline of 1.23%. The most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,585 yuan/mt this week. In early trading, bears entered the market, sending prices quickly down to 16,245 yuan/mt, after which it fluctuated at lows. Mid-week, as bears exited the market, SHFE lead prices rebounded to a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, but under pressure from slack spot supply and demand and bearish macro sentiment, it struggled to rebound and its center moved lower. Toward the end of the week, bears continued to exert pressure, and lead futures remained weak, finally closing at 16,290 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan on the week, a decline of 1.9%. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices