Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

Silver is once again at the center of global financial markets, with prices moving in the range of $80 to $90 per troy ounce. For many investors, this already sounds extreme. However, while the majority of investors focus primarily on price and charts, professional investors are looking at something entirely different: the structure of the market.

Geopolitical tensions, and concerns about fiscal policy and central banks, have driven the gold price to where it is today.

The current year has proven exceptional for gold by any metric.

Despite recent outflows, expert says decade-long gold surge still has legs.

(Kitco News) - Gold’s dramatic pullback amidst its record-setting rally has rattled markets, but according to Metals Focus, the recent turbulence should not be mistaken for the end of the bull market.

According to SMM, amid the significant surge in precious metals in 2025, the silver recycling market has seen a sharp rise in activity, with instances of inverted silver prices leading to a rush for crude silver in the market.

The market declined rapidly in the afternoon session yesterday, with the ChiNext Index leading the losses. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 142 million yuan for the day, up 129 billion yuan from the previous session. Sector-wise, port shipping, beauty and personal care, innovative drugs, and rare earth permanent magnets were among the top gainers, while Huawei Ascend, defense, semiconductors, and software development were among the biggest decliners. At yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index lost 1.17%. At today's brokerage morning meetings, Huatai Securities noted in its 2025 mid-year outlook that attention should be paid to the AI technological revolution as well as defense and self-sufficiency themes. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes the tungsten price center is expected to continue rising. Huaxi Securities suggested adopting a rotation strategy to play the tech rally. Huatai Securities 2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Focus on AI Tech Revolution, Defense, and Self-Sufficiency Themes Huatai Securities' 2025 mid-year outlook stated that the restructuring of global order is simultaneously altering asset pricing patterns. Multiple macro themes including tariff policies, global economic prospects, and geopolitical shifts are intertwined, leading to increased volatility across asset classes and weakened trends. In an uncertain environment, higher demands are placed on valuation, safety margins, odds, and ergodicity. The firm recommends responding through high odds and low correlation strategies. At the asset level, it advises maintaining operational flexibility, leveraging odds for left-side positioning during adjustments, and seeking structural opportunities in regional and industrial logic. With the US dollar trending weaker, non-US assets may show relative outperformance, European assets offer higher win rates, while emerging markets like Hong Kong stocks present better odds. Focus areas include the AI technological revolution, domestic demand sectors under fiscal expansion, as well as defense and self-sufficiency themes. CICC: Tungsten Price Center Expected to Continue Rising CICC noted that in the short term, the tightening supply-demand situation persists, coupled with the stimulative effect of overseas tungsten product premiums. The firm believes tungsten prices have entered a bull market channel and may continue breaking historical highs. Long-term, the supply-demand gap for tungsten is projected to expand from 18,300 mt in 2024 to 19,100 mt by 2028. The global tungsten supply-demand gap as a percentage of primary demand is estimated at -18.4%, -16.6%, -17.0%, -16.8%, and -17.4% from 2024 to 2028 respectively, with the tungsten price center expected to keep rising. Huaxi Securities: Play Tech Rally With Rotation Strategy Huaxi Securities pointed out that overall, expectations of easing China-US trade relations have boosted market risk appetite, with the tech sector continuing its rebound since late May. Notably, despite improving trade relations, international clues remain chaotic, indicating the "chaotic era" persists. Preparations should be made for potential reversals, avoiding excessive trading in single directions. Meanwhile, the main theme of the market remains unclear. Before the narrative of the technology sector is further strengthened, it is necessary to adopt a rotation strategy to participate in the technology market, "take profits when they are good" after achieving certain gains, and then look for sectors at low levels for appropriate positioning. If the technology market experiences a significant correction, it means that the STAR 50 Index will once again approach its position before the technology market rally in February. The expectation of market stabilization funds and substantive progress in the technology sector may provide solid support, offering a better opportunity to participate in the recovery of the technology market.