[China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry: China’s Ship Product Export Value Reached $55.08 Billion in 2025] On March 11, according to the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, China’s ship product export value reached $55.08 billion in 2025, up 26.7% YoY. Among this, the combined export value of the three mainstream vessel types—bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships—was $30.46 billion, accounting for 55.3% of the total export value.

January 16, 2026: Today, warrant prices were $24-40/mt, QP January, with the average price down $6/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $28-44/mt, QP February, with the average price down $5/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at -$10/mt to $4/mt, QP February, with the average price down $7/mt from the previous trading day. Offers referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January and early February. During the day, it was heard that two EQ bulk carriers would arrive in February, and suppliers showed a high willingness to sell. Warrant offers were heard at $30-35, QP January; transactions were concentrated around $20-25/mt, with a small volume of early February delivery cargoes heard traded at $30/mt, QP February. A small volume of pyrometallurgy B/Ls for late January arrival were offered at $20-25/mt, QP February; EQ B/L offers for early February arrival were quoted at $0-10, while EQ B/Ls for late January arrival were quoted at -$5 to $5/mt, with transactions heard at -$10 to $0, QP February.

On December 16, the first phase of China Energy Engineering Group's Songyuan Green Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Methanol Integrated Project ("Qing Hydrogen One") officially commenced operation in Songyuan, Jilin, with the second phase simultaneously launched. The project has set four world records: largest scale, largest hydrogen storage capacity, widest load-flexible process, and largest alkaline electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, overcoming the world-class challenge of coupling fluctuating new energy sources with stable chemical production. This may signify that China's hydrogen energy industry has entered a new stage of large-scale commercial application.

I. Policy Review: Countries Step Up Efforts, China Sends Key Signals The Ministry of Finance Issues Detailed Rules for the Fuel Cell Vehicle Credit Policy (Draft for Comment): The rules clarify the credit calculation method, trading rules, and management requirements, and formally propose, for the first time, a green hydrogen proportion requirement (no less than 30% from 2027 onwards), injecting strong impetus into the large-scale development of low-carbon hydrogen. The policy emphasizes the green hydrogen pathway, directly influencing local subsidy policies, with future subsidies favoring green electricity-based hydrogen production projects. Guangdong Province Introduces the First Provincial-Level Subsidy Scheme for Hydrogen Storage: The scheme provides investment subsidies and capacity compensation for new-type ESS projects (including hydrogen storage) included in the provincial plan. The provincial financial support is clearly defined, promoting the deep integration of hydrogen storage with the power grid. Ningxia Issues Optimization Policies for Hydrogen Refueling Station Approvals: The policy pilots a "one-stop" joint review mechanism, reducing the approval timeline from 90 days to 45 days, accelerating the construction process of hydrogen refueling infrastructure in central and western China, and filling gaps in the hydrogen refueling station layout. Japan Releases the 2025 Hydrogen Budget Framework: An additional 150 billion yen (approximately 7 billion yuan) is earmarked to specifically support seawater-based hydrogen production demonstration projects, aiming to reduce the cost of green hydrogen and enhance energy autonomy. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Launches a $500 Million Special Program for Liquid Hydrogen Storage and Transportation R&D: The program allocates special funds to address bottlenecks such as low efficiency and high costs in liquid hydrogen transportation, with the goal of achieving a 30% reduction in liquid hydrogen storage and transportation costs by 2028. II. Corporate Developments: Leading Companies Accelerate Expansion, Liquid Hydrogen Projects Land Intensively Sinohytec Forms Strategic Cooperation with Sweden's Cleanlog: Sinohytec's 120kW system will serve Sweden's port area tractor project for the first time, marking its first breakthrough into the high-end Nordic market and demonstrating the maturity of domestically produced fuel cell stack technology. Faurecia Announces the Commissioning of Its Changchun Liquid Hydrogen Core Parts Base: The core product, the "high-pressure cryogenic hydrogen circulation pump," has achieved mass production through localization, reducing the cost of liquid hydrogen systems by 10%. The base is planned to produce 100,000 units annually, providing key components for domestic liquid hydrogen heavy-duty truck projects. Meijin Energy's 10-Billion-Yuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park Officially Settles in Ningdong, Ningxia: The plan includes 50,000 mt of PV-based hydrogen production, 30 hydrogen refueling stations, and a thousand hydrogen-powered heavy-duty truck transportation projects, creating a closed-loop ecosystem of "wind and solar power, hydrogen storage, and vehicles." (II) International Enterprises: Linde Commences Construction of First 10,000 mt-Class Liquid Hydrogen Base in Incheon, South Korea: With a total investment of US$1 billion, the base is expected to commence operations in 2027 and will become the largest single liquid hydrogen production site in Asia. Hyundai Motor Launches New-Generation Fuel Cell System Plant in the US: With an initial capacity of 100,000 units, 80% of which are planned for commercial vehicles, highlighting the shift in its global hydrogen vehicle strategy towards commercial vehicles. Nel ASA Secures Electrolyzer Order for 400MW Green Hydrogen Project in South Africa: This is the largest equipment order for a single green hydrogen project in Africa, valued at approximately €120 million. III. Technological Advancements: Key Breakthroughs from Materials to Equipment (I) Materials: Institute of Solid State Physics, CAS Makes New Progress in Solid-State Hydrogen Storage Materials: The new aluminum-based composite material can achieve a reversible hydrogen storage density of 6.2wt% below 80℃, with a volumetric hydrogen storage density exceeding 60g/L (far surpassing traditional high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage), laying the foundation for the commercialization of low-temperature and low-pressure solid-state hydrogen storage systems (results published in *Nature Materials*). Key Components: Guofu Hydrogen Energy Releases Intelligent Production Line for 70MPa Type IV Cylinder Liners: Fully compatible with domestically produced T1000-grade carbon fiber materials, accelerating the mass production process of domestically produced Type IV cylinders and gradually reducing reliance on imported core materials. Shandong Dongyue Overcomes Mass Production Technology for High-Temperature Thin Proton Exchange Membranes (operating at 150℃): Membrane thickness reduced to within 10μm (from over 15μm previously), with conductivity increasing by 10% at high temperatures, significantly improving the efficiency and stability of fuel cells operating at high temperatures. Hydrogen Production Equipment: Fengdian Jinkaiwei Completes Trial Production of First 2500Nm³/h Single Electrolyzer: The single electrolyzer's hydrogen production capacity ranks among the top three internationally, with the designed current density increased to 6.5kA/㎡, providing key equipment support for gigawatt-scale green hydrogen projects. IV. Industrial Synergy: Breaking Barriers and Accelerating Scenario Expansion (I) Cross-Regional Collaboration: First Intercity High-Speed Logistics Route of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Hydrogen Corridor" Opens (Beijing-Xiong'an Section): The first batch of 50 49-ton liquid hydrogen heavy-duty trucks has been put into operation, making one round trip daily (approximately 300 km). This marks the first regularization of inter-provincial long-distance trunk transportation for liquid hydrogen heavy-duty trucks, verifying the economic feasibility of liquid hydrogen commercial vehicles. (II) Expansion of Demonstration Projects: Sinopec Leads the Launch of the World's Largest Pilot Project for Hydrogen-Fueled Ships: Three 2,000-ton bulk carriers (equipped with 200kW-class fuel cell systems) are planned to be put into operation on the Pearl River inland waterway, providing a large-scale application example for decarbonizing inland waterway shipping. ​​ Batch Delivery of Hydrogen-Powered Mining Trucks in Phase I of the "Zero-Carbon Mine" Project in Ordos, Inner Mongolia: ​​ ​​The first batch of 30 150-mt-class hydrogen-powered mining trucks has been officially put into operation. Their fuel cell systems have been professionally adapted for extreme working conditions in mining areas, with a daily average operating time exceeding 18 hours.

Amidst a backdrop of consistently low gross profit margins hovering around 2%, Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH)'s shipbuilding segment has garnered significant investor attention due to its relatively high profitability. At the performance briefing held today, Liao Jie, the board secretary of Xiamen Xiangyu, stated that as of the end of May 2025, the company had 88 orders on hand, including 46 63,500 DWT bulk carriers and 25 stainless steel chemical tankers, with production schedules extending to 2029. The company has recently secured new orders for two 210,000 DWT Newcastlemax bulk carriers, marking a breakthrough in large bulk carrier orders. Regarding deep-sea equipment, Liao Jie mentioned that this year, the company has signed a construction contract with Zhongtian Technology Group's Shanghai Yuanwei Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. for a 16,000-ton submarine cable-laying vessel, which is currently the largest self-propelled, purely electric-driven cable-laying vessel in China. Xiamen Xiangyu is a major commodity supply chain service provider. Due to the nature of the industry, its overall gross profit margin is relatively low. According to Choice data, the company's gross profit margins for commodity trading and logistics services from 2022 to 2024 were 1.90%, 1.53%, and 1.88%, respectively. The company's shipbuilding business has experienced rapid growth in recent years. The company began disclosing detailed data in its annual financial reports from 2023. In 2023 and 2024, it achieved revenues of 4.737 billion yuan and 5.9 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 42.62% and 24.76%, respectively, and gross profit margins of 22.56% and 18.13%, respectively. The company stated in the investor relations activity record released on April 22 that it had previously acquired the core assets of Jiangsu Hongqiang Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. through asset auctions and expected to resume production by mid-2025. Combining this with the company's 2024 financial report information, it is anticipated that upon commencement of production, the company's overall shipbuilding capacity will increase by 40%-50%. It is worth mentioning that when Chairman Wu Jie discussed industry development trends, he noted that in recent years, global commodity price fluctuations have intensified. Top-tier enterprises, relying on their advantages in resources, services, and risk control, have actively expanded their channel networks, seized more market share, and demonstrated significant counter-cyclical expansion capabilities. According to cargo volume calculations, the market share of China's top five major commodity supply chain enterprises (CR5) increased from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.26% in 2024 (estimated). In terms of performance, Xiamen Xiangyu achieved revenues of 366.671 billion yuan and 97.135 billion yuan in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, with YoY changes of -20.12% and -7.11%. Net profits for the same periods were 1.419 billion yuan and 509 million yuan, respectively, with YoY changes of -9.86% and 24.88%.

[Fujian's Ship Export Orders Boom in First Four Months] According to statistics from Fuzhou Customs, in the first four months of this year, Fujian Province's ship exports reached 5.27 billion yuan, up 17.1% YoY. ASEAN countries and Latin America were the main export markets, with exports to ASEAN reaching 2.06 billion yuan, up 245.2% YoY, accounting for 39% of Fujian Province's total ship export value in the same period; exports to Latin America reached 870 million yuan, up 18.8% YoY. Data showed that Fujian Province's ship exports were mainly bulk carriers and Ro-Ro ships. State-owned enterprises were the main force in Fujian Province's ship exports, with total ship exports of 4.54 billion yuan in the first four months, accounting for 86.3% of Fujian Province's total ship export value in the same period; during the same period, private enterprises in Fujian Province performed impressively, with ship exports of 670 million yuan, up 118.8% YoY.

★Macro★ 01 ★★★ NBS: National Fixed Asset Investment (Excluding Rural Households) Reaches 14,702.4 Billion Yuan from January to April, Up 4.0% YoY According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), from January to April, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,702.4 billion yuan, up 4.0% YoY. Among this, private fixed asset investment increased by 0.2% YoY. On a MoM basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.10% in April. According to data from the NBS, from January to April, national real estate development investment reached 2,773 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY, with residential investment at 2,117.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 282.62 million m², down 2.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-March. Among this, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 2.1%. The sales value of newly-built commercial housing was 2,703.5 billion yuan, down 3.2%, with residential sales value decreasing by 1.9%. At month-end April, the area of commercial housing pending sale was 781.42 million m², a decrease of 5.22 million m² compared to month-end March. Among this, the area of residential housing pending sale decreased by 4.55 million m². According to data released by the NBS, in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,717.4 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY. Among this, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 3,354.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%. From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,184.5 billion yuan, up 4.7%. Among this, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 14,700.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%. According to data from the NBS, in April, the actual year-on-year growth in the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.1% (the growth rate of value-added is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.22% in April compared to the previous month. From January to April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% YoY. By sector, in April, the value-added of the mining industry increased by 5.7% YoY, manufacturing by 6.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 2.1%. 02 ★★ NBS: China's Real Estate Market Continues to Move Towards Stabilization This Year, with Transactions Recovering in Some First- and Second-Tier Cities Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, stated that under the effect of various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, China's real estate market has continued to move towards stabilization this year, with transactions recovering in some first- and second-tier cities and housing prices remaining generally stable. However, it should also be noted that the overall real estate market is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. The demand for rigid and improvement housing remains to be released, and the pressure to sell off real estate inventory in some regions remains relatively high. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. 03 ★★ SAFE: Foreign Investors' Willingness to Allocate RMB Assets Continues to Improve; Foreign Investment in Domestic Stocks Turned Net Purchases in Late April Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and spokesperson, stated that in April, cross-border capital inflows into non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, amounted to $17.3 billion. The main channels are as follows: First, China's foreign trade has shown certain resilience, with net cross-border capital inflows under goods trade reaching $64.9 billion, maintaining a relatively high level. Second, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continues to improve. In April, foreign investors' net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, remaining at a high level. In late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned net purchases. Third, the main outflow channels remained stable and orderly. In April, the net outflow of service trade funds was basically flat MoM. Seasonal increases in profit remittances by foreign-invested enterprises were observed, but they were lower than those in the same period last year. Inbound and outbound foreign direct investment remained basically stable, and cross-border capital flows related to intercompany borrowings shifted from net outflows to a basic balance. ★Industries and Downstream Sectors★ 01 China's Exports of Four Major Home Appliances in April Released According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in April 2025, China exported 7.51 million air conditioners, up 12.1% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 29.71 million units, up 17.3% YoY. In April, 6.93 million refrigerators were exported, down 2.8% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 26.8 million units, up 7.6% YoY. In April, 2.92 million washing machines were exported, up 10.9% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 11.2 million units, up 4.6% YoY. In April, 8.6 million LCD TVs were exported, down 7.6% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 32.09 million units, up 1.2% YoY. 02 Raw Coal Production by Above-Scale Industries in China Reached 390 Million mt in April According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), raw coal production maintained stable growth in April. Above-scale industrial raw coal production reached 390 million mt, up 3.8% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back by 5.8 percentage points from March. The daily average production was 12.98 million mt. From January to April, above-scale industrial raw coal production reached 1.58 billion mt, up 6.6% YoY. 03 From January to April, China's Crude Steel Production Reached 345.35 Million mt, Up 0.4% YoY According to data from the NBS: In April 2025, China's crude steel production reached 86.02 million mt, basically flat YoY. From January to April, China's crude steel production reached 345.35 million mt, up 0.4% YoY. 04 General Administration of Customs: China Exported 807 Ships in April The latest data from the General Administration of Customs show that China exported 807 ships in April, up 72.4% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 2,350 ships, up 33.1% YoY. In April, 20 liquid cargo ships were exported, up 25.0% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 92 liquid cargo ships were exported, up 46.0% YoY. In April, 21 container ships were exported, down 38.2% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 63 container ships were exported, down 41.1% YoY. In April, 60 bulk carriers were exported, up 20.0% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 174 bulk carriers were exported, up 8.8% YoY. In April, 369 vessels were imported, down 58.5% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 2,260 vessels were imported, down 6.2% YoY. 05 [SMM Domestic Mine Operating Rate] Mines and beneficiation plants operated as planned, with relatively stable iron ore concentrates production According to the latest data from SMM, the capacity utilisation rate of domestic mines reached 59.3% last week, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week. The production of iron ore concentrates rose to 792,000 mt, up 5,000 mt WoW. Sales volume reached 777,000 mt, down 40,000 mt WoW. Meanwhile, the inventory of iron ore concentrates at mines increased by 15,000 mt, with the total inventory reaching 260,000 mt. Currently, mines are operating normally as planned, with relatively stable iron ore concentrates production. According to SMM's market tracking, feedback indicates that the cost-effectiveness of domestically produced iron ore concentrates has declined, and the overall willingness to sell is weak. The overall inventory of mines in the Hebei and Shandong regions has increased slightly, with some mines formulating sales promotion plans. Looking ahead to this week, the intensity of land and safety inspections in the Liaoning region has once again increased, which may have a certain impact on local production. Overall, the production of iron ore concentrates may decline further. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ [Fuel Prices to be Cut Tonight, Saving 9 Yuan for a Full Tank] According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today (May 19). The specifics of this oil price adjustment are as follows: The retail price caps for gasoline and diesel in China will be lowered by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton, respectively. On a national average: 92-octane gasoline will be lowered by 0.18 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.19 yuan per liter, and 0-octane diesel by 0.19 yuan per liter. Filling a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline will save 9 yuan. ⭕ [US 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.02%, the Highest Level Since November 2023] The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5.02%, the highest level since November 2023. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond continued its upward trend, rising by 10 basis points to 4.54% during the day. On the news front, Moody's announced on the 16th its decision to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing an increase in the proportion of US government debt and interest payments. Moody's also adjusted the outlook for the US sovereign credit rating from "negative" to "stable." ⭕ [NBS: Sales Prices of Commercial Residential Properties in Cities of All Tiers Remained Flat or Declined Slightly MoM in April] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in April, sales prices of commercial residential properties in cities of all tiers remained flat or declined slightly MoM in 70 large and medium-sized cities, with YoY declines continuing to narrow. In April, sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities turned flat MoM from a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Specifically, Beijing and Shanghai saw increases of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in second-tier cities remained flat MoM, unchanged from the previous month. Sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in third-tier cities declined by 0.2% MoM, with the decline unchanged from the previous month. In April, sales prices of existing residential properties in first-tier cities turned to a 0.2% decline MoM from a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai saw a 0.1% increase, Guangzhou remained flat, while Beijing and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Sales prices of existing residential properties in second- and third-tier cities both declined by 0.4% MoM, with the declines widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month. In April, sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities declined by 2.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai saw a 5.9% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 5.0%, 6.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. Sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in second- and third-tier cities declined by 3.9% and 5.4% YoY, respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month. In April, sales prices of existing residential properties in first-tier cities declined by 3.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 1.0%, 0.6%, 7.4%, and 3.7%, respectively. Sales prices of existing residential properties in second- and third-tier cities declined by 6.5% and 7.4% YoY, respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month. ⭕ [Steel Mill's Ten-Day Discount] Yonggang's discount for ordinary steel in the 3rd ten-day period of May 2025: 20% discount for rebar (same as the previous period), 55% discount for wire rod (70% discount in the previous period). [SMM Steel]

[General Administration of Customs: China Exported 807 Vessels in April] The latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 807 vessels in April, up 72.4% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 2,350 vessels were exported, up 33.1% YoY. Among them, 20 tankers were exported in April, up 25.0% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 92 tankers were exported, up 46.0% YoY. 21 container ships were exported in April, down 38.2% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 63 container ships were exported, down 41.1% YoY. 60 bulk carriers were exported in April, up 20.0% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 174 bulk carriers were exported, up 8.8% YoY. In April, 369 vessels were imported, down 58.5% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 2,260 vessels were imported, down 6.2% YoY.

In Q1 2025, Turkey's deep-sea bulk steel scrap arrivals reached 4.53 million mt, up 15% YoY from 3.93 million mt in the same period of 2024. However, bulk carrier port arrivals in March 2025 decreased by 8% MoM, dropping from 1.53 million mt in February to 1.4 million mt. A total of 215-220 bulk carriers were scheduled to arrive in Q1 2025.

The US Announces Measures to Boost Domestic Shipbuilding Industry The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced measures to boost the domestic shipbuilding industry on the 17th local time. Some of the measures include, to encourage US-built car carriers, foreign-built car carriers will be charged a fee based on their capacity 180 days later, starting at $150 per car (CEU). To encourage US-made liquefied natural gas carriers, foreign vessels transporting liquefied natural gas will face limited restrictions after 3 years, and these restrictions will gradually increase over 22 years. No fees will be charged for dry bulk carriers arriving empty at ports to export US goods. All parties must submit feedback on the proposed measures by May 19.