SMM, March 24: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. In early trading, LME lead fluctuated downward, dipping to $1,873.5/mt. Then bulls stepped in, driving prices sharply higher, with wide swings in the $1,888.5-1,909/mt range and a session high of $1,909/mt. Near the close, bullish momentum somewhat faded, and LME lead edged down slightly to finally close at $1,898.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $9.5/mt, or 0.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,495 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,510 yuan/mt. It then saw wide swings in the 16,440-16,500 yuan/mt range. During the session, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, falling to 16,405 yuan/mt. Late in the session, SHFE lead prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, finally closing at 16,435 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead enterprises narrowed slightly WoW, and among cargoes self-picked up from production site, heavily discounted cargoes were also hard to find. The number of enterprises quoting secondary refined lead was relatively small, and there were clear differences between upstream and downstream in price acceptance: downstream had low acceptance of premiums, while upstream held firm offers and showed cautious willingness to sell. Demand side, procurement by downstream enterprises was somewhat scattered. Some mainly made purchases under long-term contracts, while others bought the dip as needed, resulting in differentiated market transactions. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News, March 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at around 16,390 yuan/mt during the day. After the opening, bulls remained strong, pushing SHFE lead prices sharply higher to an intraday high of 16,500 yuan/mt. Prices then dropped back slightly and fluctuate rangebound in the 16,440-16,470 yuan/mt range, overall holding up well. During the session, the price center of SHFE lead moved lower, touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Near the close, SHFE lead prices rebounded slightly and finally closed at 16,395 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 105 yuan/mt, or 0.64%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead smelters narrowed slightly from last Friday, while secondary lead quotes held firm and willingness to sell was cautious. Demand side, downstream battery plants mainly purchased on a rigid-demand basis through long-term contracts, while wait-and-see sentiment for spot orders was strong. On the downside, lead prices were supported by rigid scrap battery costs, selling reluctance amid losses in secondary lead, and firm spot premiums. On the upside, pressure came from the impending entry into the demand off-season and weak macro demand. SMM expects lead prices to fluctuate at lows and repair, with limited room both upward and downward. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, March 23: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,893/mt. In early trading, prices consolidated within the range of $1,882–1,895/mt, and briefly dipped to $1,880/mt intraday. Bulls then stepped in, driving prices sharply higher to a high of $1,908/mt. After consolidating at high levels, bullish momentum weakened somewhat, and LME lead turned into a fluctuating downward trend. LME lead prices saw wide swings within the range of $1,888–1,898/mt, and finally closed at $1,889/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $8/mt, or 0.42%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of 16,325 yuan/mt. SHFE lead then fluctuated upward, but failed to break through resistance, and lead prices fluctuated downward again. After 22:30, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded, reaching a high of 16,445 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices then fluctuated rangebound within the range of 16,410–16,445 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up 125 yuan/mt, or 0.77%. Supply side, with lead prices running at low levels, primary lead enterprises showed weak willingness to sell, while secondary lead enterprises held prices firm and were reluctant to sell on cost support, leaving overall market trading sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants only maintained rigid-demand procurement through long-term contracts, while remaining cautious and wait-and-see toward spot order purchases. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

[Zinc Price Center Rose, Focus on Subsequent Macro Changes] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 22,875 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls added to open interest and pushed SHFE zinc up to 23,110 yuan/mt. During the session, bulls reduced open interest and SHFE zinc fell to a low of 22,840 yuan/mt. Near the close, bulls exerted strength again, driving prices to rebound slightly. It finally closed up at 22,935 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.33%. Trading volume decreased to 66,161 lots, and open interest increased by 664 lots to 106,000 lots.....

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 22,350 yuan/mt, the intraday low. Subsequently, bulls added to open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated upward all the way, touching a high of 22,940 yuan/mt near the close and finally closing up at 22,860 yuan/mt, up 155 yuan/mt, or 0.68%. Trading volume fell to 93,582 lots, and open interest increased by 852 lots to 105,000 lots.

[SHFE Zinc Continued to Decline Today, with Focus on Overseas Rate Decisions and China Social Inventory] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,470 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition, and SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound below the daily average line. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 23,475 yuan/mt and a low of 23,260 yuan/mt, and finally closed down at 23,345 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, or 0.47%. Trading volume increased to 55,115 lots, and open interest increased by 3,955 lots to 95,164 lots.....

SMM, March 19: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,928.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,938/mt. It then moved in a narrow range of $1,926-1,935/mt as bulls and bears were evenly matched. Entering the European session, bears took the lead, and LME lead began to fluctuate downward, falling to a low of $1,906/mt, before consolidating in a narrow range of $1,906-1,911/mt. Near the close, LME lead edged up slightly to settle at $1,913/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices surged to a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward. Although prices rebounded slightly intraday, the rebound was weak, and lead prices again came under pressure and pulled back, fluctuating rangebound within 16,555-16,590 yuan/mt and touching a low of 16,555 yuan/mt during the period. It finally closed at 16,585 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.39%. China mine side, lead concentrate TCs remained weak, with some smelters operating at insufficient rates and market supply staying tight. On the imported ore side, the import window opened and expectations for price hikes emerged, but enterprises showed low willingness to pay, limiting additional volumes. Primary lead: inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Secondary lead: as losses widened, most secondary lead enterprises stayed on the sidelines and were reluctant to sell, tightening effective supply in the market overall. Downstream battery plants: after restocking demand was met, the procurement pace slowed down, and downstream demand remained weak. Overall, the market still showed a pattern of weak supply and weak demand. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and close attention should be paid to changes in secondary lead operating rates in late March and shifts in downstream purchasing strength.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,093.5/mt. Early in the session, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $11,754/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,228.5/mt, before seeing wide swings and finally closing at $12,211.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 46,900 lots, open interest stood at 288,600 lots, an increase of 239 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 92,500 yuan/mt and fell to 91,820 yuan/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then fluctuated upward to a high of 95,530 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 94,920 yuan/mt, down 0.91%. Trading volume reached 153,000 lots, open interest stood at 197,000 lots, down 6,302 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.

SMM News, March 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead edged down to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, the futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually lifting to a high of $1,926/mt, and finally closing at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead posted wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. Toward the end of the night session, SHFE lead fluctuated upward, but as bears gained strength, it shifted to a fluctuate downward trend, closing at 16,405 yuan/mt, near the session low. It formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. After SHFE lead fell sharply yesterday, some of the losses were recouped, and discounts for primary lead spot narrowed from last Friday. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted premiums, with some choosing not to ship. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, downstream buyers favored purchasing primary lead. Overall, support on the spot side and cautious downstream sentiment remained in competition, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and rangebound sideways movement likely to dominate.