On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

[SMM Brass Bar Flash News] This week (3.27-4.2), the operating rate of the brass billet industry came in at 55.16, up a slight 0.77 percentage points WoW. The industry as a whole remained mild, supported strongly by robust demand from downstream refrigeration and heat dissipation sectors.

[SMM Brass Bar Flash News] Looking ahead to April, enterprises reported that current order momentum has cooled somewhat compared with the initial period after the Chinese New Year, but the refrigeration sector still maintained a certain degree of support. Large enterprises maintained an active production stance and continued to capture market share. SMM expects the operating rate in April to increase slightly by 1.47 percentage points MoM to 54.06%.

[SMM Brass Bar Flash News] After returning from the holiday, brass bar enterprises saw solid order performance, exceeding market expectations. Robust demand from downstream refrigeration and heat dissipation sectors provided strong support, while downstream customers actively picked up goods to fulfill orders, driving a slight drop back in finished product inventories at copper billet enterprises.

[SMM Brass Bar Flash News] In March, the comprehensive operating rate of copper billet enterprises was 52.59, up 29.81 percentage points MoM and down 1.79 percentage points YoY. In March, the operating rate of large enterprises was 59.81, that of medium-sized enterprises was 43.93, and the operating rate of small enterprises was only 28.7, with clear divergence among enterprises.

This week (3.27-4.2), the operating rate of the brass billet industry came in at 55.16%, rebounding slightly by 0.77 percentage points MoM , with the industry as a whole maintaining a mild trend. Robust demand from downstream refrigeration and heat dissipation sectors provided strong support, while active downstream cargo pick-up for order delivery also drove a slight drop back in finished product inventories at copper billet enterprises. Looking ahead to next week (4.3-4.9), order momentum is expected to cool somewhat from the initial period after the Chinese New Year, but the refrigeration sector will still provide support, and large enterprises will maintain active production. Considering multiple factors, SMM expects the industry's operating rate to edge up 0.32 percentage points MoM to 55.48% next week, with overall operations remaining mild.

[SMM Steel] Germany’s SMS Group secured a contract from India’s SAIL to modernize billet casters at the Durgapur Steel Plant. The upgrade of two six-strand casters is expected to boost production capacity by over 60% and introduce a 150 mm × 150 mm billet section to support downstream rebar and wire rod production. The project will be implemented in two phases, with commissioning planned for Q4 2027 and Q3 2028.

Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas:

Global scrap metal prices experienced a predominantly upward trend in mid-March 2026, with the most significant increases recorded in Turkey and the United States. In Turkey, HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap prices rose by 3.9% between late February and late March, reaching $388.3 per tonne, the highest level since mid-2024. The price surge is primarily driven by a domestic supply shortage and rising freight rates linked to Middle East instability, forcing electric arc furnace operators to absorb higher costs as high-grade alternatives like Asian billets become increasingly scarce.

[SMM Operating Rate of Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets] According to the SMM survey, as of March 31, the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets mainly producing construction steel stood at 27.39%, up 27.39 percentage points MoM from February and up 5.25 percentage points YoY. National construction steel prices fluctuated downward in March. Rebar prices reached 3,167 yuan/mt on March 23, the highest price of the month, and 3,131 yuan/mt on March 4, the lowest price of the month. After the Lantern Festival, downstream construction sites gradually resumed work, market demand gradually improved, and end-users' just-in-time procurement increased slightly. Cost side, affected by multiple macro factors, the coal market as a whole showed a pattern of being more likely to rise than fall. At some coal mines in producing areas, production release was hindered by factors such as working face replacements, leading to a slight contraction in supply, while downstream procurement demand remained robust. Auction transaction premiums were obvious, further supporting stronger coal prices. As cost pressure was passed on, coke enterprises showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and expectations for a new round of coke price increases to be implemented heated up, which will likely be gradually realized in the near term. Raw material prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, and cost support for steel remained in place. Supply side, blast furnace steel mills currently maintained a stable production pace, with production remaining relatively steady; EAF steel mills resumed production in an orderly manner as planned, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rebound. As of March 24, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction steel was 40.42%, up 1.78% from the previous period. Billet-rolling mills also gradually resumed work after the Lantern Festival, and the operating rate of steel mills using externally purchased billets was 27.39% this month, up 27.39% MoM, driving a rapid increase in overall market supply. Demand side, downstream construction sites were gradually resuming work, and market demand increased somewhat. However, dragged down by end-user steel consumption volumes and tight cash flow at end-user enterprises, the market remained cautious about the outlook. Downstream construction sites and traders mainly purchased as needed, and the strength of demand recovery was weaker than in the same period in previous years. Overall, after the Lantern Festival, both supply and demand increased, and the supply-demand imbalance was not yet prominent. As temperatures gradually recover and terminal construction conditions improve, the rebar supply-demand pattern is expected to improve mildly, and inventory is likely to continue declining. However, constrained by funding conditions, the room for incremental demand should not be viewed overly optimistically. Therefore, the increase in the operating rate of billet-processing enterprises in April is expected to be limited, and the room for overall supply growth is relatively small.