The Indonesian aluminum market remained stable during the 2026 Chinese New Year, with production unaffected and bauxite prices holding at USD 28–32 FOB amid RKAB uncertainty. Alumina prices also stayed steady at USD 308 FOB due to feedstock stability and a seasonal lull in Chinese buying activity.

SMM June 15 News: In May, due to relatively concentrated maintenance and production cuts at alumina enterprises, alumina supply tightened, and prices showed an upward trend. The theoretical profitability of alumina expanded. As of the end of May, according to SMM's daily cost-profit model, the theoretical profitability of alumina expanded to 409 yuan/mt. Entering June, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not see significant changes. However, due to some recovery in profitability, some of the alumina capacity that had undergone maintenance and production cuts earlier resumed operations. Coupled with the ramp-up of newly commissioned capacity, the operating capacity of alumina rebounded. As of Thursday this week, the weekly operating capacity of alumina rose to 89.01 million mt/year, and alumina supply increased. Under these circumstances, the spot alumina prices came under pressure and pulled back. As of Friday this week, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 3,250.93 yuan/mt, a pullback of 24.6 yuan/mt from the end of May. As of now, the theoretical profitability of alumina still stands at 375 yuan/mt. The operating capacity of alumina is expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and the alumina market is expected to show a slight surplus in June. As the spot supply of alumina rebounds and spot prices decline, the theoretical profitability of alumina is expected to narrow subsequently. Some high-cost enterprises are expected to face increased cost pressure, and there is a possibility that high-cost capacity may once again undergo maintenance and production cuts. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor the production dynamics of alumina enterprises as well as the cost and profitability of alumina.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 9-12, 2025) are as follows......

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view SMM's historical spot metal prices SMM News on June 12: Domestic Bauxite Market: This week, the domestic bauxite market remained calm, with stable operations prevailing. As of today, in Shanxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was approximately 580-620 yuan/mt. In Henan, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was around 550-590 yuan/mt. In Guizhou, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and 58% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 410-450 yuan/mt. In Guangxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite Market: According to data from June 6, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 4.8204 million mt, a decrease of 40,000 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Guinea were 3.5693 million mt, an increase of 395,500 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Australia were 889,700 mt, a decrease of 249,500 mt from the previous week. In terms of prices, spot transactions of imported bauxite bulk cargo remained sluggish this week. Only one low-grade Guinea bauxite transaction was inquired, with a price below $75/mt for a grade of 45% alumina content and 3% silica content, driving down the SMM CIF index for imported bauxite and the average CIF price for Guinea bauxite. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price for Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5/mt, a decrease of $0.5/mt from last Thursday. The SMM CIF index for imported bauxite was reported at $74.35/mt, a decrease of $0.59/mt from last Thursday. SMM Commentary: In the short term, both bullish and bearish factors coexist in the bauxite price market, with buyers and sellers engaging in a tug-of-war. On one hand, in the short term, the supply of imported bauxite is expected to remain high, with the fundamental market showing a surplus and inventory buildup in bauxite. Additionally, spot alumina prices have shown a certain downward trend, and alumina profit margins are expected to narrow, limiting the acceptance of high-priced bauxite. On the other hand, the rainy season in Guinea is approaching, and the previous mining rights issues have not yet been resolved, with subsequent bauxite shipments expected to decline. Sellers are reluctant to budge on prices. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. 》Click to view SMM's aluminum industry chain database

SMM June 11 News: In the past two weeks, the impact of the Guinea mining rights incident on market sentiment for alumina and bauxite has gradually subsided, and transactions in the bauxite bulk cargo market have been relatively sluggish. Bauxite prices are currently in a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, with both bearish and bullish factors coexisting, and price trends await guidance. Bauxite sellers intend to refuse to budge on prices Recently, bauxite sellers have maintained their offers above $75/mt. Considering the upcoming rainy season in Guinea and the unresolved mining rights incident, bauxite shipments are expected to decrease, and sellers have a certain intention to refuse to budge on prices. According to data from June 6, the total weekly bauxite port departures from Guinea's main ports were 3.5693 million mt, an increase of 395,500 mt from the previous week. From the perspective of weekly average port departures, the average weekly port departures from Guinea's mainstream ports were 3.86 million mt in April and 3.6 million mt in May (5 weeks). Recently, Guinea's weekly bauxite port departures have decreased from the high levels seen in March-April. As the impact of the rainy season gradually manifests, weekly port departures are expected to decline further, and the monthly balance of bauxite may shift to a deficit state. Buyers have limited acceptance of high-priced bauxite On the one hand, the bauxite market has recently shown a continuous surplus. Supply side, bauxite port arrivals have remained at high levels recently, with an average of 4.48 million mt per week in April (5 weeks) and 4.45 million mt per week in May. In the first week of June, port arrivals reached 4.82 million mt. Demand side, from April to May, affected by maintenance and production cuts at domestic alumina refineries, alumina production declined, reducing the demand for bauxite. Bauxite has remained in a continuous surplus. As of last Friday, SMM statistics showed that the combined inventory at nine ports was 21.2 million mt, an inventory buildup of 5.14 million mt from the end of March. Based on a simple calculation of last week's alumina operating capacity and bauxite supply, the weekly demand for bauxite is estimated to be around 4.5 million mt, while the combined supply of imported bauxite arrivals and domestic ore production is expected to be close to 6 million mt, resulting in a weekly bauxite surplus of over 1 million mt. On the other hand, the profitability of alumina is not optimistic. Starting from the end of May, the SMM alumina index has stopped rising and pulled back. Some high-cost alumina capacities in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi are expected to remain in a loss-making state. Alumina refineries have not yet achieved 100% profitability and are once again facing pressure from narrowing profits and increasing losses. It is expected that alumina refineries will be unable to accept high-priced bauxite in the short term. SMM Commentary: Since mid-May, bauxite transaction prices have shown mixed performance. During the game phase, the SMM imported bauxite index price is expected to fluctuate.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 03-05, 2025) are as follows......

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical spot prices of SMM metals SMM News on June 5: Domestic bauxite market: The domestic bauxite market remained calm this week, with prices holding steady. As of today, in Shanxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was approximately 580-620 yuan/mt; in Henan, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was around 550-590 yuan/mt; in Guizhou, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and 58% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 410-450 yuan/mt; in Guangxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported bauxite market: According to data from May 30, the total weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports were 4.8604 million mt, an increase of 377,800 mt from the previous week; the total weekly port departures of bauxite from main ports in Guinea were 3.1738 million mt, a decrease of 601,700 mt from the previous week; the total weekly port departures of bauxite from main ports in Australia were 1.1392 million mt, a decrease of 53,200 mt from the previous week. Price trends: This week, the quotes from suppliers of imported bauxite were higher than the previous transaction prices. However, the actual transaction price center for Guinea bauxite is still around $75/mt. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $75/mt, an increase of $1/mt from last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.94/mt, an increase of $0.83/mt from last Thursday. SMM Commentary: Recently, the port arrivals of imported bauxite have remained high, and the bauxite market is expected to maintain a surplus situation. There have been no new developments in the Guinea bauxite incident, and suppliers are reluctant to sell and are refusing to budge on prices. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to remain stable or hold up well. 》Click to view the SMM aluminum industry chain database

【Weekly Review of Bauxite】The impact of the Guinea bauxite incident on market sentiment gradually eased this week, with transaction prices failing to rise further. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74/mt, an increase of $2/mt from last Thursday. Influenced by the concentration of Guinea bauxite transaction prices around $73-75/mt, the SMM imported bauxite index rose. As of Thursday this week, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.11/mt, up $1.97/mt from last Thursday. With no progress in the Guinea bauxite incident, bauxite suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices was not strong. However, alumina operating capacity still failed to rebound significantly. In the short term, the fundamental situation of bauxite is expected to remain in a surplus pattern, with general intentions to purchase bauxite at high prices. In the short term, imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a phase of volatile adjustment.

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical prices of SMM metal spot cargo SMM News on May 29: Domestic bauxite market: The domestic bauxite market remained calm this week, with stable operations prevailing. As of today, in Shanxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was approximately 580-620 yuan/mt; in Henan, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was around 550-590 yuan/mt; in Guizhou, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and 58% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 410-450 yuan/mt; in Guangxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported bauxite market: According to data from May 23, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 4.4826 million mt, an increase of 698,200 mt from the previous week; the total weekly bauxite port departures from main ports in Guinea were 3.7755 million mt, an increase of 175,700 mt from the previous week; the total weekly bauxite port departures from main ports in Australia were 1.1924 million mt, an increase of 200,500 mt from the previous week. In terms of prices, the impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment gradually eased this week, and transaction prices did not rise further. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74/mt, an increase of $2/mt from last Thursday. Influenced by the concentration of Guinea bauxite transaction prices around $73-75/mt, the SMM imported bauxite index rose. As of Thursday this week, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.11/mt, an increase of $1.97/mt from last Thursday. SMM Commentary: There has been no progress in the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident, and bauxite suppliers are not strongly inclined to sell at low prices. However, the operating capacity of alumina has not yet seen a significant rebound. In the short term, the fundamental situation of the bauxite market is expected to remain in a surplus, with general intentions to purchase bauxite at high prices. In the short term, imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a phase of volatile adjustment. Close monitoring of Guinea's supply situation will be necessary in the future. 》Click to view SMM aluminum industry chain database

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 29 Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,985 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,990 yuan/mt, a low of 2,940 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,948 yuan/mt, down 43 yuan/mt or 1.44%. The open interest stood at 381,000 lots. Ore: As of May 28, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $73.88/mt, up $0.18/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on May 28, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of 253.31 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily Report: On May 28, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,303 mt from the previous trading day to 140,200 mt. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,799 mt from the previous trading day. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,303 mt from the previous trading day to 3,001 mt. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 5,105 mt from the previous trading day. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 129,700 mt from the previous trading day. Overseas Market: As of May 28, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.40/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.21. This price translates to approximately 3,269 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 0.46 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window is gradually opening. Summary: Last week, some enterprises in north China underwent maintenance, while some alumina refineries in south China completed maintenance, leading to a rebound in operating capacity. Overall, the national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.09 million mt WoW last week. In the near future, some new alumina enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance, while some enterprises are expected to complete maintenance and resume operating capacity. On the whole, the operating capacity is expected to continue to rebound slightly. Affected by the supply-side disruptions in the bauxite market, bauxite prices have risen, and the cost support for alumina is expected to strengthen. Coupled with the fact that the short-term fundamentals have not shifted to a surplus pattern, there is still upward momentum in prices. However, with the recovery of supply, the alumina price may encounter resistance, and the spot alumina price is expected to hold up well in the short term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]